Depressed Fantag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://12009-11-20T18:15:59ZAll Sixers, all the time.Movable Type 4.23-enKeep Building Momentum, EBtag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186482009-11-20T17:09:42Z2009-11-20T18:15:59ZI'll admit it, Elton Brand's play against the Bobcats has me excited. Yes, it was one game, but he did things in that game that I worried he'd never be able to do again. Forget about the dunks, the guy is 6'8" with a standing reach of like 11 feet, he should be able to dunk when he's 60-years-old, the thing that most impressed me was that ability he showed to get off the floor quickly for blocked shots. That's explosiveness and timing, two vital pieces of the puzzle for a guy like Brand.Brian
I'll admit it, Elton Brand's play against the Bobcats has me excited. Yes, it was one game, but he did things in that game that I worried he'd never be able to do again. Forget about the dunks, the guy is 6'8" with a standing reach of like 11 feet, he should be able to dunk when he's 60-years-old, the thing that most impressed me was that ability he showed to get off the floor quickly for blocked shots. That's explosiveness and timing, two vital pieces of the puzzle for a guy like Brand. ]]>
Tonight's game is crucial for EB in my mind. Wednesday could've been a blip. It could've been a hyper-motivated guy digging deeper than ever before to come up with a huge game after his coach essentially said he had no faith in him to the press. We need to see two things at this point:
(1) Elton to continue to trust his body. If he's hesitant out there, bad things happen. He doesn't get up for blocks, he doesn't push his man off the blocks, he doesn't clear out space for rebounds, he doesn't attack the rim. A hesitant Brand is an ineffective Brand, and we need much more than that.
(2) Elton desperately needs to get his touch back. Even if injuries are a concern, and they've lessened his ability to muscle guys when he has the ball in the low post, there's no reason to think his struggles when he's facing the basket, on short jumpers, stem from anything other than rust. Take a look at these two graphics from NBA.com's hot spots.
The first is EB's shot chart from the 2006-2007 season (his last full season):
Now take a look at the same chart for this season:
The vintage EB scored a ton of points on jumpers, and he hit them at a high rate. This season, that shot hasn't been falling. He doesn't seem to be putting enough arc on the shot, for the first five or six games he left nearly every attempt short and didn't seem to be shooting with any confidence at all. Over the past couple of games, the jumper has looked better, he's had a better rhythm, but still the shots haven't been falling. It's coming, you can see it's coming and one thing this offense will create is open looks for bigs from within 15 feet. Williams and Iguodala can get to the rack, and each will dish to a big (either Speights or Brand) for an easy look.
The impact of the apparent erosion of Elton's physical skills, which hopefully were overblown through the first handful of games, would've been much less alarming had he been hitting his jumper at his usual rate. The level of athleticism may or may not come all the way back. My feeling today is it will be back to a decent level, if it isn't already there. If that's the case, and you couple it with his typical shooting percentages on short jumpers, Elton is going to be more than fine.
Of course, this leads us to a bigger question, one John proposed to me via e-mail yesterday. If Brand is back, if he continues to knock the rust over the next 10-20 games and returns to a difference-maker on both sides of the ball, in what way does this help the Sixers the most? With Brand on the floor, contributing for this team, or as a trade chip? If he appears to be worth his contract, and the Sixers can get equal value for him in a trade, should they move him?
I'll leave that up to you guys to discuss in the comments, I'll chime in later.
By the by, Elton's competition tonight is Zach Randolph, so he'll have every opportunity to follow up Wednesday's performance with another solid showing, albeit against a sub-par, uninterested defender. Rodney Carney is a go for tonight's game, updated from the Sixers via Twitter. ]]>
A Radio Show, a Redesign and a Field Triptag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186412009-11-20T05:47:55Z2009-11-20T07:02:34ZWe're on the verge of some new, and hopefully, exciting changes here at Depressed Fan. I say we, because you guys are what keeps me posting and I want you to be part of the process. After the jump, some details on the new site, the new server, a new radio show I'm going to be co-hosting with Derek Bodner and an update on our first field trip, which is quickly approaching.Brian
We're on the verge of some new, and hopefully, exciting changes here at Depressed Fan. I say we, because you guys are what keeps me posting and I want you to be part of the process. After the jump, some details on the new site, the new server, a new radio show I'm going to be co-hosting with Derek Bodner and an update on our first field trip, which is quickly approaching.
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First things first. I made the final payment on our block of tickets for the December 19th game against the Clippers yesterday, the tickets will be in the mail to me early next week. Right now, we have about 10 seats left, so if you haven't reserved your spot yet, send me an e-mail. The seats are floor level, section 115, rows 13 & 14, $25 each. If you can't go but you know someone who may want to, have them e-mail me here: brian@blogsbyfans.com.
Now to the new stuff. First, Derek Bodner had a great idea and I'm going to be joining him to do a weekly live podcast/radio show. We're going to spend a half-hour talking about the Sixers, taking calls and eventually we hope to have guests join us as well. Our premiere will be on Monday night (the 23rd) at 8p.m. You should bookmark the home page for the radio show, it's called Sixers Beat. Derek did a great job putting this project together and I hope a bunch of you guys will be able to join us on Monday night, if you can't make it, you'll be able to listen to the replay on the site.
For this last part, the redesign, I'd really like to know what you guys like/dislike about the site as it currently looks/works. As part of the redesign, I'm going to be moving to a new server which opens up a few doors for new features and will make everything much faster. The biggest change will be the ability for anyone to write a post, all you have to do is open an account (which will be much easier, and the login process will be streamlined as well).
I know how I use the site, as a reader and commenter, but I was hoping I could get your feedback in the comments on how things might be improved. Here are a series of question, answer any you'd like, and if I forgot something, or you have an idea, don't hesitate to post that as well. (You can also e-mail me any suggestions you might have, if you're more comfortable with anonymity. My e-mail address is brian@blogsbyfans.com)
How often do you visit?
How often do you comment?
Do you ever use any of the links in the black section in the middle of the home page (Player salaries, helpful links, archives, recent entries, entries from the rest of the Blogs By Fans Network)?
Have you opened an account and/or created a profile here? If so, do you login to comment? If not, why not?
Would you be interested in writing your own posts (to be displayed in the sidebar, with the possibility of them being included in the main section of the site?)
Do you like the images I attach to entries on the home page? Would you be fine with plain text?
Is the site easy to read as it's currently constructed? Text too small?
Do you follow me on Twitter? Do you subscribe to the site using the RSS feed? Would you like to receive an e-mail whenever a new post is published?
What do you like most about the site? What would you love to change?
This is not in the plans, but if an account was required to leave a comment, would that be too much of hassle and would you stop visiting?
Name one feature you wish the site had.
Thanks in advance for any responses, in the past I've kind of stumbled through redesigns without any concrete feedback from you guys, but the community has grown to the point where I want to make sure I'm heading in the right direction this time around.
Expect a post in the early afternoon about Elton Brand and then the game preview later today. It's game day!
One potentially bad note, Carney tweaked his wrist in Wednesday's game, he's listed as probable for tonight's game, but he couldn't shoot at all in practice yesterday. Check out that link for a couple classic, "getting after it" quotes from our fearless leader. ]]>
Inching Toward Mediocrity?tag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186392009-11-19T19:57:53Z2009-11-19T20:50:11ZOr are they? The Sixers defensive rating has improved over the past four games (2 wins, 2 losses), but have they really performed better? We'll take a look after the jump.Brian Or are they? The Sixers defensive rating has improved over the past four games (2 wins, 2 losses), but have they really performed better? We'll take a look after the jump. ]]>
The Sixers now rank 21st in the league in defensive efficiency, down from their low point of 29th about a week and a half ago. Sure signs of improvement, right? Well, that depends. Consider this, in their past four game, the Sixers played three of the worst offenses in the league. The Nets rank 30th, the Bobcats 29th and the Bulls 27th.
You'd expect the Sixers' season numbers to improve drastically against those teams, but at this point in the season, looking at the cumulative number really doesn't mean much, the sample size is so small, your efficiency rating is going to be skewed greatly by who you play. For example, playing against the Raptors, who lead the league in offensive efficiency at 114.5, a allowing a 104.5 rating in that game would really be a good defensive effort, while playing the Nets and allowing 104.5 would be atrocious. You really need to play a bunch of games before the cumulative number works out.
With that in mind, we have to look at who the Sixers have played, and how they've fared against the teams' season efficiency numbers (again, the sample sizes are too small, and can vary based who those teams have played, but it's a better barometer than your team's cumulative total). Here's the chart of the Sixers relative defensive efficiency vs. all the teams they've played thus far.
In 11 games, only three times have the Sixers held teams under their average offensive rating for the season, Milwaukee in the second game of the season (they actually held them almost 17 points under their season number), @ Detroit, barely, and @ the Nets, again barely. In the other 8 games, they've made opposing offenses look better, in six of those games, significantly so.
Obviously, you have matchups to consider, some teams will be better suited to take advantage of your weaknesses, etc, but you'd expect an average defensive team to cumulatively be pretty much even when you break their season down like this. Better defensive teams would have a positive DIF column, and a bad defensive team would be in the negatives. If you total up the DIF column for the Sixers, you get a whopping -76.14, or almost 7 points worse, per game.
The reasons are simple. A made three is the most-efficient offensive trip possible (with the exception of the four-point play, which almost never happens), the Sixers give up a ton of threes. Offensive rebounds extend possessions, so second-chance points kill you as well and don't show up in standard defensive stats, like field goal percentage (one possession could result in 3 shots, with only the third falling if there are two offensive rebounds. In the box score, this shows up as 33% from the floor, which you would think is great defense. In offensive rating, this is 2 points on one possession, which is pitiful).
In a nutshell, the Sixers "don't defend the three and don't worry about grabbing defensive rebounds" philosophy is creating a perfect storm of inefficient defense. It looks like they're only ranked as highly as 21st because they've played 7 of their 11 games against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league, and five of their games against four of the worst offensive teams in the league (Nets 30th, @ Nets 30th, @ Knicks 26th, @ Bulls 27th, Bobcats 29th). They were even in negatives against those teams, thanks in large part to the pitiful defensive effort they put forth in the Garden against the Knicks.
If this trend continues, and I don't really see any reason to think it will not, the Princeton offense is going to have to transform the Sixers from a mediocre offensive team (currently, the 21st most efficient offensive team), to a top-ten offense. Does anyone think that's possible? ]]>
Hip, Hip...tag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186332009-11-19T05:39:37Z2009-11-19T16:00:38ZIf you're looking for a celebration for that win, you're going to have to look elsewhere. It took a monster effort from Elton Brand, in 42 minutes of work, to squeak out a two-point win over a hapless Bobcats team, at home. That's really not something to celebrate.Brian If you're looking for a celebration for that win, you're going to have to look elsewhere. It took a monster effort from Elton Brand, in 42 minutes of work, to squeak out a two-point win over a hapless Bobcats team, at home. That's really not something to celebrate. ]]>
There are two things to celebrate from this game: (1) Elton Brand's dominating performance. (2) The completely uncontrollable set of circumstances that forced Eddie Jordan to actually play Brand down the stretch: (a) Speights' injury, (b) Brand's unbelievable performance in the first three quarters, (c) Sammy's early foul trouble/poor play throughout. If a, b and c don't happen, we probably don't see Brand on the floor for the fourth quarter and almost certainly spend the night talking about things like finding a new coach and trading for Monta Ellis.
So we finally saw what we've been waiting for about 16 months to see from Brand, a game-changing performance, and it was just barely enough to knock off second-worst offensive team in the league. The Sixers did not play well in this game. The small lineup did not suddenly figure things out, and Jordan's rotations didn't solve any problems. Charlotte shot 7/24 from three and most of those looks were wide open. The Sixers did a better job than I expected on the defensive glass (73%), but still not good enough. Without Brand's six blocks, we're probably looking at a loss. Without Brand's three steals (it really should've been four, but for some reason they gave it to Iguodala), we're probably looking at a loss. Without Brand's seven offensive rebounds, we're probably looking at a loss. His play masked a hell of a lot of problems tonight, and even with Brand playing at this high level, this would've been a loss to even a mediocre team.
Here's a look at tonight's rotation chart, check out the run Jordan gave Jrue in the second quarter.
Just wanted to make sure you were paying attention. Obviously, Holiday was a DNPCD, with Jordan instead opting for the uber-effective GreenIvey back court in the second. The only time I saw Holiday tonight was when the Sixers were pushing a promotional offer called "The Holiday Package." How many teams build ad campaigns around a guy who can officially change his first name to DNPCD?
I'm not going to blast Jordan for using small lineups tonight, because his hands were pretty much tied. No Speights, Sam either fumbling the ball all over the place or in foul trouble. He didn't have a choice unless he wanted to overextend Smith. I do find two things Jordan did completely unacceptable, though.The first is obviously 18 minutes for Willie, seven minutes for Ivey and zero minutes for Jrue. For the record, since Jrue's excellent game against the Suns, in which he played 15 minutes and was lifted for no good reason at the end, he has played a total of 11 minutes and 56 seconds over the next four games.
The second thing Jordan needs to be taken to task for is not realizing what's happening on the floor. With 30 seconds to go, desperately needing a stop and in a timeout Jordan sent the following lineup into the game to get that stop: Elton Brand, Thad Young, Rodney Carney, Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams. Or, to put it another way, His 2nd best center (although he played like a beast tonight), his third best defensive power forward, probably his best defender at the the 2 and 3, and the absolute worst defensive point guard he has on his roster. One stop, he goes with those guys. Most likely because those guys were really "getting after it."
He also has a problem realizing that even though a lineup may be scoring, if they're giving up more points on defense, they aren't really helping you. This is his biggest weakness as a coach, as far as I'm concerned. Pay close attention, even if the team is falling further and further behind, as long as they're putting some points on the board, he'll stick with them until the buzzer sounds. He did it tonight with that final lineup, the lineup that coughed up the lead and was trailing by three points with 1:41 left in the game. Luckily, Brand made a few huge plays, Andre Iguodala grabbed a monstrous rebound and raced up the floor with the ball before Jordan could call a timeout and draw up a play for a 20-foot jumper, and dished to Lou Williams for the game-winner.
This blind spot of Jordan's could've easily cost them the game tonight, against a better opponent, it would have. He did the same thing against the Knicks in regulation, if you recall.
Anyway, if this game truly did signal the return of Elton Brand, then you can't help but feel great about it. If he has to produce like this to earn second-half minutes every night, well, I'm afraid we're going to see a few more fourth quarters without Brand on the floor.
Player of The Game: Elton Brand, 8/17 from the floor, 3/4 from the line, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3(4) steals, 6 blocks and only 1 turnover in 42 minutes. Honorary Mention: Rodney Carney. He was all over the floor tonight, just 100% energy and really effective as well. Up Next: Memphis, on Friday night. ]]>
PO vs. No Otag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186302009-11-18T22:12:02Z2009-11-18T22:39:59ZThe Sixers and the Bobcats come into tonight's game scuffling. Both teams are having serious problems on one side of the ball, neither has an identity. I'm fully expecting a street brawl on the floor with Brown clogging the lane mercilessly and the Sixers cruelly inviting Charlotte to hit open jumpers. Here's the problem, though. In a street fight, usually the craziest guy wins.Brian
The Sixers and the Bobcats come into tonight's game scuffling. Both teams are having serious problems on one side of the ball, neither has an identity. I'm fully expecting a street brawl on the floor with Brown clogging the lane mercilessly and the Sixers cruelly inviting Charlotte to hit open jumpers. Here's the problem, though. In a street fight, usually the craziest guy wins. ]]>
All kidding aside, this will probably be one of the ugliest games we'll witness this season. In front of an empty Wachovia Center we're going to see the Sixers try to execute their precision offense against a physical defense who loathes allowing penetration and forces you to take the one shot you really don't want to take.
On the other end, Charlotte has scored more than 90 points only three times in ten games. Simply put, they are horrible with a capital H offensively. They're coming off a game in which Flip Murray and Borris Diaw completely went off, shooting a combined 23/34 from the floor for 52 points. The rest of the team could only muster 39 points, however, and they were held to 91 as a unit.
One look at their roster tells you exactly how they plan to play. They're big, they're physical, they're athletic, and they're mostly unskilled on the offensive end. It's going to be very, very interesting to see how they fare against one of the worst defenses in the league tonight.
When the Sixers have the ball, the size mismatches simply won't be there, not that they use those mismatches when they are present, but it's worth noting. Stephen Jackson will present problems for Iguodala, Gerald Wallace is bigger and stronger than Thad. Brand should be able to do some work against Diaw, if he's given the chance, which I highly doubt he will be. Expect to see very little of Brand (if he even starts), especially if Diaw gets hot from the outside.
Tyson Chandler vs. Sam Dalembert is a wash. Tyson Chandler vs. Jason Smith is going to be interesting when the Sixers are trying to secure defensive boards.
Larry Brown has apparently been given free reign over this roster, and he's made into his own very quickly. Guys who can defend multiple positions, good size, and not a lick of offensive talent. Four guys in their eight-man rotation are shooting less than 40% from the field. That's astonishing.
On paper, the Bobcats don't have anyone who even comes close to measuring up to Iguodala. Brand outclasses anyone in their front court. Thad and Wallace are probably a wash at SF with Thad getting the nod on offense, Wallace on defense and the glass. Dalembert and Chandler cancel each other out. I'd give the Bobcats a small advantage off the bench because Flip can get hot and without Speights, the Sixers' second unit is decidedly punchless.
When you put them on the floor, though, the Bobcats have two big advantages. The first is their coach, who knows what he's doing when it comes to coaching, if not when he's building rosters. The second is that Charlotte knows who they are, they're a defensive team and they don't hide from that fact, the embrace it (they're 6th in the league in defensive efficiency). The Sixers don't know what kind of team they are. Their personnel doesn't mesh with the coach's vision for the team and they're struggling on both ends.
I think Philly will find a way to squeak out a win, mostly because having the two or three best players on the floor should be enough to overcome anything, but it's not going to be pretty and I wouldn't say I'm exactly confident in my prediction.
Key to The Game: Defensive rebounding. If _____________________ the Sixers will win: The Sixers hit 8 threes. Let's face facts, Brown's defense is going to trump the PO tonight, the Sixers are going to be forced into taking deep jumpers for the majority of the game. If they can hit a decent amount of them, they'll win.
This is your game thread, still no definitive word on the starting lineup, so don't have a coronary if Carney is at the three, Thad is at the four and Brand is on the bench. I have my fingers crossed, though. Tip is at 7 pm. Hope to see you guys here.
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Should We Want Monta?tag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186262009-11-18T13:34:59Z2009-11-18T07:45:28ZAlmost immediately following the Stephen Jackson trade, word broke out in Oakland that another Warrior was being shopped, Monta Ellis. Jackson was a dynamic player, saddled with a bad contract and inflated offensive numbers that hold up much better when you're glancing at a box score, but wilt in a spreadsheet. Ellis is an entirely different story.Brian
Almost immediately following the Stephen Jackson trade, word broke out in Oakland that another Warrior was being shopped, Monta Ellis. Jackson was a dynamic player, saddled with a bad contract and inflated offensive numbers that hold up much better when you're glancing at a box score, but wilt in a spreadsheet. Ellis is an entirely different story. ]]>
Let's table whether the Sixers could put together a package that would entice GSW enough to pull the trigger for a second and examine what should be the first question you have an affirmative answer for before even considering a trade. Would he help the Sixers?
Since I first read the rumor this afternoon, I've been trying to come up with a definitive answer to that question, the closest I've come is "I think so." Not exactly a ringing endorsement. My reticence doesn't stem from Ellis' record, quite the contrary. His stats are sick. He's what you could call a one-man-wrecking crew from the two guard. In his last full season, he shot 53.1% from the floor. A shooting guard, shooting over 50% is just ridiculous. While Baron Davis was jacking threes left and right and the rest of the Warriors were picking up table scraps, Ellis was carving up defenders.
He's a good rebounder, a decent creator for his teammates, he gets to the line. The two things he doesn't do particularly well are shoot threes (he rarely takes them, and he's a career 29.6% shooter from downtown) and turns the ball over too much (13.3% TOV rate for his career). Defensively, the advanced stats say he's done a good job covering two guards, not so much when he's on the ball.
My problem isn't even with his carping to the press (I tend to believe him when he says Nellie has been yanking his chain ever since Baron left), nor his mo-ped accident. His contract is fairly reasonable, considering his production and age (he's owed $11M/year for the next three seasons, with no yearly increases).
So what's my problem? I just laid out a pretty convincing argument for the type of player Ellis is, and it sure seems like he'd help just about any team, right? Why wouldn't he help the Sixers? Well, that's the issue for me. I have no idea what the hell the team needs. The only type of player Jordan seems to be able to utilize is a big who can step out and hit a jumper.
Would a slasher like Ellis thrive or would he be suffocated by the dribble-handoffs 30 feet away from the hoop? Is he exactly the type of player who could use the wrinkles in the defense and back-cuts to get to the rim where he's truly an elite finisher for a guard? I have no idea.
The only thing I'm absolutely sure of right now is that the Sixers would have absolutely no use whatsoever for a defensive stopper with a limited offensive game. At this point, the question becomes what do you hope for? Do you bang your head against the wall and wish for the pieces to be put in place to become an elite defensive team, or do you give in? Do you face the reality that Jordan is going to be here for a while and hope they put the players in place who will be able out-gun opponents by running the Princeton offense properly?
I'm completely baffled. I never believed you could build a championship-caliber team on offense alone. I still don't believe you can completely ignore defensive rebounding and expect to be anything more than a low seed in the playoffs, wracking up wins against weaker teams. It's almost beyond me to have to start looking at potential deals through this lens. But still, I think we have to try at this point. What's the alternative, bury our heads in the sand, and either (a) wait until Jordan's tenure is over and hope some semblance of the core remains intact or (b) hope the focus can shift, at least somewhat, to defense and playing the type of basketball that can win in the playoffs.
After putting e-pen to e-paper, I think it doesn't matter in this case. No matter which way you slice it, Ellis is talented enough to make a difference for the Sixers. Which brings us to the second part of the equation: Who would you be willing to trade for him, what kind of a package would the Warriors be willing to take and what position would he play if you got him?
The last part is easy to answer, he's a shooting guard, he's not a PG. If you're going to get him, he's got to play the two. That makes the first question and second questions a little easier to answer as well. Thad is probably the price you're going to have to pay. Originally, I thought the question would be are the Sixers better off with Thad at the three and Iguodala at the two, or Iguodala at the three and Ellis at the two. Upon further review, I don't think that's the critical question at all. We aren't headed in that direction anymore, Jordan is taking us off course. Sooner or later, Thad is going to be the power forward Eddie Jordan believes he needs to run the PO, a guy who can stretch the floor.
The question we need to answer is whether the Sixers are better off with Thad at the four and Iguodala at the two/three, or Iguodala at the three and Ellis and the two. I can answer emphatically that they'd be better off with the latter, simply because the former is a terrible, terrible idea on so many different levels.
It's never easy to part ways with a kid as talented as Thad. Given the opportunity, I do believe Thad and Iguodala could blossom into one of the most dynamic wing duos in the league, on both ends of the floor (could being the operative word). But if that combo isn't going to be given a chance, if it's going to be scrapped anyway and Thad's going to develop into a light-rebounding perimeter four, well, that lowers his ceiling considerably in my eyes
Ellis is two-and-a-half years older than Thad, he doesn't help solve the Sixers perimeter shooting or defensive woes all that much, but he does represent the best case scenario of what we can hope for from Thad at the four. A guy who will score efficiently and can carry the team on the offensive end for spurts. I'd much rather have that type of player in his natural position, with good rebounding numbers from the position to boot, than have an under-sized PF who you need to have on the floor, no matter what damage he's doing on the glass or the defensive end. You can hide Ellis' shortcomings to keep him on the floor, you can't hide Thad's deficiencies at the four, not for an entire game, and not during crunch time against good teams (see games 2-6 of last year's first round for numerous examples).
The Sixers could send salaries of between $8.8M and $13.75M to Golden State to make a deal for Ellis work under the cap. Thad's cap number is $2.1M, so obviously, the Sixers would have to add at least one more piece to the deal.
If you're thinking of sending Thad and Sammy for Ellis alone, the numbers don't match up when you factor in Sammy's trade kicker. You'd wind up with somewhere around $17M going to Golden State, and they'd have to kick in another $3M or so for it to work.
Obviously, you'd love to give Golden State Willie Green, and Green would come off their books a full two seasons before Ellis, so it would create cap space. Green plus Thad would equal $5.8M, so you'd still have to add more into the deal. Perhaps Thad, Willie and Lou would get the job done. Lou could thrive in Golden State's free-form offense. Those three contracts equal roughly $10.7M, so you could do a three-for one deal, or you could take back one of Golden State's lesser contracts in return, either an injured guy, like Brandon Wright, a complete scrub, like Mikki Moore, or maybe you get some value in a guy like C.J. Watson (Watson is playing under a qualifying offer, so he'd have to OK any trade).
The question of whether or not Golden State would go for a package like this isn't easy to answer. I'm going to assume they'll be looking for more, either more talent, or better (shorter) contracts. We're going to have to see how the market plays out. I will say this, though, the following lineup could be scary a year or two down the road, if Golden State did pull the trigger:
PG: Curry SG: Morrow SF: Thad PF: Anthony Randolph C: Biedrins 6TH MAN: Lou Williams
The Sixers lineup next season could be:
PG: Holiday SG: Ellis SF: Iguodala PF: Brand C: Speights (or Sam, if he's still here)
Thoughts in the comments, as usual. We actually have a game tonight, expect the preview later this afternoon. ]]>
Sam Dalembert Trade Rumorstag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186222009-11-17T16:29:08Z2009-11-17T16:29:47ZMarc Stein is reporting there are talks ongoing between the Sixers, Kings and Celtics regarding a three-team deal that would send Sam Dalembert packing. We'll take a look at the specifics and break the trade down after the jump.Brian
Marc Stein is reporting there are talks ongoing between the Sixers, Kings and Celtics regarding a three-team deal that would send Sam Dalembert packing. We'll take a look at the specifics and break the trade down after the jump. ]]>
Here's a look at the proposed players, where they'd be headed and their contracts:
To Philly:
Tony Allen - $2.5M (expiring)
Brian Scalabrine - $3.4M (expiring)
Kenny Thomas - $8.775M (expiring>
To Sacramento:
Sam Dalembert - $12M + trade kicker ($12.9M next season)
To Boston:
Andres Nocioni - $7.5M ($6.85M, $6.65M, $7.5M Team Option for the next three seasons)
Cap implications:
Philadelphia
This season's current cap number: $63,376,460
Cap number if trade went through: $66,039,559
Next year's cap number without trade: $66,363,607 (plus first-round pick)
Next year's cap number w/ the trade: $53,450,784 (plus first-round pick)
So there you go. This move would leave the Sixers would cost the Sixers a little more than $2.6M this season, prorated, so roughly $2.4M. It would save them $12.9M next season and drop their cap number down to about $53M with 10 players under contract, plus their first round pick. Most likely, they'll still be up against the salary cap at that figure, possibly over it, but they would have enough wiggle room to use the full MLE without going over the luxury tax threshold.
Comedy Factor
If you think the idea of having the bloated Brian Scalabrine suddenly become a huge part of the rotation in Philly because he "gets after it" and "can really shoot the ball" and "just gets the Princeton offense" would be the funniest part of this deal, you'd be wrong. The funniest thing about this deal would be the worst contract Billy King handed out as the Sixers GM coming home to roost in Kenny Thomas, and what would the Sixers trade for it? The second-worst contract King doled out. You just don't get the opportunity to see things come full circle like that very often.
On The Floor
The Sixers would immediately go from a team that should at least be passable on defense (I think they should be much better than that, but whatever), to a team that simply can't compete defensively. The ruse of defense actually mattering on an Eddie Jordan team will finally be abandoned and Jordan will finally have the personnel to match his philosophy. No more minutes for guys who don't prefer to shoot 20-footers early in the shot clock.
Allen is out indefinitely with ankle surgery, Scalabrine is recovering from an ankle sprain and Kenny Thomas has played a total of 67 minutes in 5 games of action so far this season.
Likelihood
Sacto seems pretty desperate for a shot-blocking center, they've also been rumored to have interest in Emeka Okafor. Dalembert carries less risk, and most likely less reward than Okafor, and they could also get out from under Nocioni's contract. Boston has been rumored to be interested in Nocioni for some time now. Adding Nocioni will also have the added benefit of immediately filling the "gritty white guy" quota, since Scalabrine will be on his way out. I assume Nocioni would immediately start shooting 40% from three with the second unit.
This deal hinges on Sacramento being willing to take a chance on Dalembert. If they really want him, I don't see any reason why the deal wouldn't happen.
Should It Happen?
If I was Ed Stefanski would I pull the trigger on this deal? Well, that depends on what he thinks of this year's team. If he believes this season is toast, sure, you pull the trigger immediately. Even if you aren't going to use the cap space next summer, saving $12.6M and change over the next two seasons is meaningful when your team is last in the league in attendance. Dumping Sammy may also lead to a few more losses and a higher draft pick. You can probably rationalize the move by saying Sammy would've never fit into Eddie Jordan's system, plus he asked for a trade next year. In short, you can cover your ass.
If, on the other hand, you want to win games, you don't make this trade. In no way would the Sixers be better off, talent-wise, if this trade were to go through. The Sixers are already extremely thin in the front court, and you're trading your only bonafide post defender and shot blocker for nothing.
There is a third option which could make the move palatable. You're dismantling the roster. As soon as you're done making this move, you're on the phone shopping everyone and anyone with the hopes of getting far enough under the cap this summer to make a move for LeBron/Wade/Bosh. This path has two added benefits, (1) You can entirely rebuild the roster to fit the "Jump shooters who can't defend" Eddie Jordan prototype. (2) You can position yourself for a high lottery pick. Of course, with a decimated roster and a coach who successfully turned a good defense into one of the worst, the odds of landing one of the premier free agents are somewhere between none and not a chance in hell.
Couple this deal with a deal sending Thad Young, Lou Williams and Elton Brand to Houston for Tracy McGrady and you might be in decent shape heading into next summer. A core of Iguodala and Speights in place (Jordan is still here, so Jrue is still buried on the bench), plus a high draft pick, plus roughly $20M in cap space. Looks good on paper, not so great when you wind up with a consolation prize in free agency.
I'm still trying to figure out how we went from a team on the rise to a joke considering a fire sale, but here we are. Thoughts in the comments, as usual.
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A Heavy Loadtag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186192009-11-17T13:24:40Z2009-11-17T06:38:36ZLost amid the losing, questionable coaching and nonexistent defense we've been forced to endure over the first ten games is the remarkable start Andre Iguodala has gotten off to. There's a catch, though. I think he's doing too much.Brian Lost amid the losing, questionable coaching and nonexistent defense we've been forced to endure over the first ten games is the remarkable start Andre Iguodala has gotten off to. There's a catch, though. I think he's doing too much. ]]>
Quick trivia question for you: Who's the only player in the NBA to currently lead his team in minutes, points, assists, steals and defensive rebounds? That's right, Andre Iguodala. What's most impressive about the stats above is that he's leading the team in defensive rebounds while spending about 88% of his minutes at the two.
That stat is both amazing and alarming. Iguodala's defensive rebounding rate (19.0%) is third on the team, behind the team's two centers: Dalembert (23.7%) and Speights (19.8%). He's doing more work on the glass than all the power forwards on the roster, including Elton Brand (15.7%).
Iguodala has a size and strength advantage on most of the two guards on the other teams, but I don't think that's why he's getting so many rebounds. I think it's because his team needs him to. This is a recurring theme.
When the team needs someone to initiate offense, the ball goes to Iguodala. When a wing gets hot, it's Iguodala who switches onto him. For me, the straw that broke the camel's back came against Utah. When Lou Williams and Willie Green spent the first two-and-a-half quarters getting torched by Eric Maynor off the dribble, it was Andre Iguodala who had to step up and start guarding the point. I'm not sure if it was Eddie Jordan who called for the defensive switch, or Iguodala himself, but it really doesn't matter if the coach is asking this much of him or he's simply taking the weight of the team on his own. The reality of the situation is this is too much for one player.
Consider this, in the Sixers' three back-to-backs so far this season, Iguodala has logged 237 minutes total. That's 237 minutes of chasing his man through endless screens, crashing the boards, bringing the ball up the floor, initiating offense and more recently, guarding the point in half-court sets.
Beyond the toll this beating is going to take on his body, think about the effect of having Iguodala so involved in every facet of the game. With him under the glass, the Sixers don't get as many run out opportunities. In fact, their most reliable fast break offense is when Iguodala grabs the rebound and sprints coast to coast for the finish. How sustainable is that over an 82-game schedule?
Some of the other guys on this team are going to need to start carrying their weight. If they can't, then Eddie Jordan is going to have to start making substitutions based on something other than the perceived ability to hit 20-foot jumpers. Defense and rebounding need to become a priority, if for no other reason than to keep this team's head somewhere near above water until the Princeton offense is fully installed.
Oh, and for the record, if Jordan does replace Elton Brand with either Jason Smith (12.5%) or Rodney Carney (8.9%) the team's defensive rebounding is going to get even worse.
Two alarming things about Igudoala's numbers thus far: He's only shooting 64.6% from the foul line, which is simply atrocious. He's also only going to the line 4.5 times/36 minutes. Down from 5.7 last year. Possibly a result of his jumpers falling more frequently.
In case you missed it, there here's an update from Yahoo! via Twitter which landed late last night:
Bell in his prime was a very good perimeter defender and he could knock down the three. He's no longer anywhere near his prime, but his contract is expiring. Radmanovic is an avid snow-boarder who occasionally likes to hoist threes. Vlad is owed about $13M over the next two seasons. This trade would've basically brought nothing of value to the Sixers, but it would've saved them about $6M next season. ]]>
A New Starting Lineup?tag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186152009-11-16T18:08:28Z2009-11-16T18:26:11ZThree tweets from Kate Fagan during the Sixers practice today left me feeling empty inside. Details after the jump.Brian
Three tweets from Kate Fagan during the Sixers practice today left me feeling empty inside. Details after the jump. ]]>
Here are the tweets, afterward the conclusions I'm jumping to:
So no definitive word, yet, but all signs are pointing to Elton Brand being removed from the starting lineup. If this is the case, here are the three most-likely options for who would replace him: Jason Kapono, Willie Green, Jason Smith.
Had this news come before the Speights injury, I probably would've been fine with it, but right now I'm guessing there's about an 80% chance that Jordan will be starting a small lineup, and probably sticking with a small lineup for 20 to 30 minutes per game. This is disastrous news, absolutely devastating as far as I'm concerned. Small lineups have been this team's bugaboo from day one, and this is absolutely not the type of adjustment the team need. ]]>
The Second Tentag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.186092009-11-16T16:00:56Z2009-11-16T15:51:35ZPrior to the season I said we'd break the season down into 10-game segments. Predict the results of the upcoming 10, dissect the results of the previous 10. After the jump we'll take a look at where we've been and where we could be going. Make sure you vote in the poll as well.Brian
Prior to the season I said we'd break the season down into 10-game segments. Predict the results of the upcoming 10, dissect the results of the previous 10. After the jump we'll take a look at where we've been and where we could be going. Make sure you vote in the poll as well. ]]>
I had the Sixers pegged at a .500 record after the first ten games, with wins over New Jersey, New York, Milwaukee, Detroit and Chicago. As fate would have it, I was one game off in on the record, but still managed to pick three individual games incorrectly. I never expected the Sixers to play this poorly, especially on the defensive end. I figured the PO would be pretty ugly in its infancy, but I don't know how anyone could've predicted the defensive collapse we've witnessed.
Of the ten games, I'd say the Sixers played one complete game (against the Bucks) and put together at least one solid quarter in all the other games. Their offensive rating is actually down from last season, although their eFG is up (.485 to .501). The offensive production has fallen off mostly because their offensive rebounding rate is way down (.313 to .248). They're also turning the ball over more.
On the defensive end, the eFG has risen by 2.4%, turnovers forced are the same, defensive rebounding is actually better and they aren't getting hurt at the line as much as last season. It's the eFG, which is heavily weighted by the three-point efficiency of the opponents. They also probably aren't fouling as much because so many shots are uncontested.
There aren't too many positives to be found after roughly and eighth of the season has gone by. Here's some data pulled from the rotations chart.
Best/Worst By Position (basically, this is the highest and lowest +/- for any player who has played the position, while at that position. So Sam's number will be the combined +/- of every lineup where he was at the five, and so on)
Center - Sam/Jason Smith: -1 Marreese Speights: -39
Power Forward - Elton Brand: +5, Thad Young: -31
Small Forward - Rodney Carney: +3, Jason Kapono: -25
Point Guard - Lou Williams: +14, Willie Green: -29
Carney at the three and Willie at the two shocked me, and neither was a horribly small sample size. I'm not shocked at all to see basically Willie as the worst negative at the point, nor Thad at the 4. Think about the burn Speights and Thad have gotten together at the 4/5 (55 minutes).
Anyway, just a quick look at one of the splits, available from the rotations chart. Doesn't really mean a whole lot at this point, good or bad.
Now that we've looked back, let's take a look at the next ten games on the schedule:
Wed, Nov 18 Charlotte
Fri, Nov 20 Memphis
Sat, Nov 21 @ Cleveland
Tue, Nov 24 @ Washington
Wed, Nov 25 @ Boston
Fri, Nov 27 Atlanta
Sun, Nov 29 @ San Antonio
Mon, Nov 30 @ Dallas
Wed, Dec 2 @ Oklahoma City
Sat, Dec 5 @ Charlotte
Three more back-to-backs crammed into the next two weeks, including trips to Cleveland (they are also on the back-end of a b-to-b for this game) and Boston (Boston has 2 off days heading into this game. Sounds fair.) on the ass end of the first two, then a Texas two-step for the third. This does not look pretty. They do have four games against sub-.500 teams (two vs. Charlotte, one @ Washington and one vs. Memphis).
I have no idea where to begin to make predictions, nor do I have any idea how the Sixers measure up to these teams. If we're basing it on their performance over the first 10 games, 2-8 is probably realistic. If we're basing it on what we've seen over the past two seasons, I think maybe you can pump that number up to 4-6, with them dropping one of the games against the sub-par teams and picking up an improbable win against one of the better teams. I just don't see how you can climb out on that limb right now, though.
I think I'm going to split the difference and predict 3-7. I may have been more bullish (or foolish) if Speights was in the lineup, but I just think his absence will be felt and I'm not 100% confident his lost minutes will be given to Elton Brand. I have the Sixers winning the next two against Charlotte and Memphis, then picking up another win on the day after Thanksgiving at home against Atlanta. They play Atlanta well and I'm hoping they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder after a tough road trip. If they pick up a fourth win, it could be either @ Washington (2-7), @ Charlotte (3-6) or against one of the legit teams. Nothing would shock me with this team right now. They may catch fire on jumpers at the right time and shock someone.
Vote in the poll and leave your thoughts in the comments:
