Depressed Fantag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://12009-07-03T17:34:23ZAll Sixers, all the time.Movable Type 4.23-enWinners and Losers, So Fartag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177562009-07-03T17:34:49Z2009-07-03T17:34:23ZWith Gordon, Charlie V., Gortat, Artest and Ariza all finding new homes in free agency, Shaq and VC on to greener pastures via trade, who do you think has done the most to improve their team thus far? Thoughts in the comments, as usual.Brian
With Gordon, Charlie V., Gortat, Artest and Ariza all finding new homes in free agency, Shaq and VC on to greener pastures via trade, who do you think has done the most to improve their team thus far? Thoughts in the comments, as usual. ]]>
The Rockets will probably get a better return on their investment in Ariza than the Lakers will in Artest, but I don't think either team is really better off from the swap. LA had Ariza in a perfect spot, without a lot of responsibility on the offensive end. He pretty much spotted up and hit jumpers. Artest will want to do more, and if he is not allowed to, it could cause problems. On Houston's end, they don't have anyone to carry the weight on offense, something Artest was happy to do last season. Ariza is not that type of player. He'll help them if/when Yao gets back, but this season, Artest would've probably had a greater positive effect.
The Pistons turned themselves into a gunning team that plays no D overnight, they get an "F" for misuse of funds.
The Magic are not a better team with Vince Carter and without Hedo, Lee, Alston, etc. If they somehow re-sign Hedo, they are. So they get an incomplete from me, but it's looking like they're going to downgrade.
Shaq to Cleveland could go either way, but when you look at what they gave up for him, it was a positive move. They've upgraded.
Finally, the Dallas Mavs. They pulled the jewel of free agency, in my mind. If they can hang on to Jason Kidd, they've done the most to improve their team in my eyes. If they lose Kidd, they're in serious trouble because their MLE is gone. They'll have to work a sign and trade to get a point.
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2009 Free Agents, Position-By-Positiontag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.161472009-07-03T16:35:01Z2009-07-03T16:36:46ZUPDATED 12:34 p.m. July 3rd - This is an addendum to the 2009 NBA Free Agents post from the other day. This time, we'll break the players down by position as well as free agent status.Brian
This is an addendum to the 2009 NBA Free Agents post from the other day. This time, we'll break the players down by position as well as free agent status.]]>
Point Guards
Unrestricted Free Agents
Jason Kidd
Mike Bibby
Andre Miller
Stephon Marbury
Jason Hart
Brevin Knight
Smush Parker
Ronald Murray
Marcus Williams
Jacque Vaughn
Lindsey Hunter
Anthony Carter
Kevin Ollie
Quincy Douby
Mike Wilks
Tyronn Lue
Restricted Free Agents
Ramon Sessions
Raymond Felton
Nate Robinson
Luther Head
Jarrett Jack
Early-Termination Options
Eddie House
Anthony Johnson
Travis Diener
Chris Quinn
Bobby Brown
Shooting Guards
Unrestricted Free Agents
Allen Iverson
Wally Szczerbiak
Bobby Jackson
Ben Gordon (5 years, $55M Detroit)
Marquis Daniels
Desmond Mason
Anthony Parker
Damon Jones
Keith Bogans
Rodney Carney
Ronnie Price
Morris Almond
Maurice Ager
Gerald Green
James Singleton
Dahntay Jones
Von Wafer
Shannon Brown
Quinton Ross
Kareem Rush
Juan Dixon
Restricted Free Agents
Rashad McCants
Joey Graham
Linas Kleiza
Carlos Delfino (If he returns from overseas)
Early Termination Options
Kobe Bryant
Jamal Crawford
Quentin Richardson
Trenton Hassell
Michael Finley
Ricky Davis
Devin Brown
Small Forwards
Unrestricted Free Agents
Hedo Turkoglu
Shawn Marion
Lamar Odom
Ron Artest (3 years/$18M LAL)
Trevor Ariza (Verbal commitment from HOU)
Walter Herrmann
Grant Hill
Ime Udoka
Stephen Graham
Matt Barnes
Darius Miles
Justin Reed
Adrian Griffin
Restricted Free Agents
Marvin Williams
Ike Diogu
Jamario Moon
Josh Childress (If he returns from Greece)
Early Termination Options
Hidayet Turkoglu
Kyle Korver
Devean George
Yakhouba Diawara
Power Forwards
Unrestricted Free Agents
Rasheed Wallace
Anderson Varejao
Charlie Villaneuva (5 years, $35M Detroit)
Channing Frye
Malik Rose
Drew Gooden
Chris Wilcox
Stromile Swift
Joe Smith
Shelden Williams
Maceo Baston
Cedric Simmons
Juwon Howard
Chris Anderson
Steve Novak
Donyell Marshall
Ryan Bowen
Michael Ruffin
Shavlik Randolph
Restricted Free Agents
Charlie Villanueva
Channing Frye
Hakim Warrick
David Lee
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
Aaron Gray
Brandon Bass
Paul Millsap
Ealry Termination Options
Jermaine O'Neal
Al Harrington
Anderson Varejao
Brian Cook
Brian Skinner
Malik Allen
Centers
Unrestricted Free Agents
Raef LaFrentz
Radoslav Nesterovic
Jason Collins
Zaza Pachulia
Robert Swift
Chris Mihm
Saer Sene
Jarron Collins
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga
Calvin Booth
Melvin Ely
Ryan Hollins
Lorenzen Wright
Adonal Foyle
Jamaal Magloire
Sean Marks
Theo Ratliff
Patrick O'Bryant
Jake Voskuhl
Dikembe Mutombo
Restricted Free Agents
Marcin Gortat (Offer sheet from Dallas)
Johan Petro
Early Termination Options
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Eddy Curry
Mehmet Okur
Mark Blount
Etan Thomas
Jerome James
Kwame Brown
Steven Hunter
Francisco Elson
Be sure to check out the full breakdown of 2009 NBA Free Agents as well. ]]>
Andre Miller's Disappearing Leveragetag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177522009-07-02T18:44:28Z2009-07-02T18:44:57ZThank you, Joe Dumars. While I firmly believe the two free agent signing Dumars made yesterday will cripple his team, there's another reason to be thankful for his decisive action on the free agent market. He took one bullet out of Andre Miller's gun.Brian
Thank you, Joe Dumars. While I firmly believe the two free agent signing Dumars made yesterday will cripple his team, there's another reason to be thankful for his decisive action on the free agent market. He took one bullet out of Andre Miller's gun. ]]>
Reports indicate Miller is asking for a contract worth about $30M for 3 years. The Sixers are willing to offer 2 years, maybe $16M. Here's the sad fact for Miller, if Hedo Turkoglu signs in Portland, Miller's leverage is effectively reduced to nil. Perhaps Toronto could renounce a couple of contracts and clear enough money to pay Miller's asking price, but that's doubtful, especially with Jose Calderon in place. Sacramento may be willing to pay Miller, but they don't have that kind of cap space either, and I don't think they suffer any illusions that they have a window in the next three years or so. Miller to Sacto just doesn't make sense.
Memphis ate up most of their cap space in the Zach Randolph trade and Oklahoma City is primed to use theirs on a young player, like Paul Millsap. To put it bluntly, Andre Miller will be screwed if/when Portland uses up its cap space on Hedo Turkoglu.
Look at it this way, any other team who wants his services will have two choices - 1. Offer him the MLE, 2. Work out a sign and trade with the Sixers. A three-year, full MLE deal will be worth about $18M, maybe a little more. For a sign-and-trade, Miller needs the Sixers to agree. Here's the question, is 2 years, $16M preferable to 3 years, $18M? You'd have to think so, wouldn't you?
If you're feeling inpatient and want the Sixers to do something big, just think about this situation for a couple of minutes. The more time passes, the more the leverage shifts to the Sixers. Pretty soon, teams will even start using their MLE on other players. The list of teams who could potentially offer Miller a contract will shrink, and he's going to have to either take less than the Sixers offered to play elsewhere, crumble and take the Sixers' offer, or beg the Sixers to work out a sign-and-trade, which they may or may not be willing to do. Any way you slice it, though, the Sixers are in the driver's seat in these negotiations. Eventually, Miller is going to need them a lot more than they need him.
Things could shift in the other direction if Kidd, Bibby and Sessions find homes elsewhere, but even then, I'm not 100% convinced the Sixers believe they need to add one of the starter-level points this Summer. They may very well just go with a vet minimum guy to join the PG rotation. ]]>
Progress So Far?tag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177482009-07-02T12:18:29Z2009-07-02T03:35:12ZA comment last night from TK76 got me thinking. Let's assume the Sixers make no significant moves this Summer. Say they fill out their roster with Dionte Christmas and a few low-impact veteran minimum contracts. What would that mean for the 2009-2010 season? I'll give you some of the factors to consider after the jump, then have at it in the comments and vote in the poll.Brian
A comment last night from TK76 got me thinking. Let's assume the Sixers make no significant moves this Summer. Say they fill out their roster with Dionte Christmas and a few low-impact veteran minimum contracts. What would that mean for the 2009-2010 season? I'll give you some of the factors to consider after the jump, then have at it in the comments and vote in the poll. ]]>
Let's assume this is your 10-man rotation and the final two guys on the active roster won't see much action:
PG: Williams, Holiday
SG: Iguodala, Green
SF: Thad, Kapono
PF: Brand, Speights
C: Dalembert, Smith
Here are things we need to take into account, questions that need to be answered:
Eddie Jordan vs. Tony DiLeo/Mo Cheeks as coach
Losing Miller
Gaining Brand/Smith
The team's willingness to play Iguodala, Thad and Brand at the 2,3,4
The team's possible insistence on playing Brand at the 5
Learning and implementing the Princeton offense
Very, very little PG experience on the team
Dalembert's reaction to a reduced role
Team defense if Dalembert's minutes are significantly cut
The maturation of the young core (Thad, Iguodala, Speights, Lou)
Jrue Holiday's learning curve
Changes in the Eastern Conference (have the Cavs, Magic, Pistons improved themselves with major moves. Boston is a year older)
Weigh those factors and give me a super-early prediction for the Sixers' win total in the poll below. As usual, we'll use the comments to discuss this as well as the happenings around the league throughout the day.
]]>
Daryl Morey Stole My Ideatag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177402009-07-01T04:06:48Z2009-07-01T17:13:46ZUPDATE: McGrady Rumor breakdown....The first free agency report broke early and will probably break my heart as well. Rockets' GM Daryl Morey apparently rang Marcin Gortat's doorbell at 12:01 a.m. I guess he read my post from earlier Tuesday.Brian
The first free agency report broke early and will probably break my heart as well. Rockets' GM Daryl Morey apparently rang Marcin Gortat's doorbell at 12:01 a.m. I guess he read my post from earlier Tuesday. ]]>
Let's use this post to keep track of the rumors of the day. Make sure you leave a link in the comment.
Morey set up an e-mail address to trick Gortat into signing with Houston, use it to tell Gortat Philly is the place to be.
UPDATE: 12:57 p.m.
There's a rumor circulating involving the Sixers and the Rockets. The base of the deal would be Dalembert for McGrady, but the Sixers would have to add other pieces to make the deal work.
McGrady's deal will pay him $22,483,124 this season. Dalembert's will pay $12,125,694. The Sixers would have to send at least $17,886,499 to Houston in order to make the deal work. When you factor in Dalembert's trade kicker, he would be worth $13.94M in a deal, so essentially, the Sixers would have to find another player, or players, to add to the deal whose salary(ies) equal at least $4M. Willie Green makes
$3.6M, which would fall just short of the amount the Sixers need to send. The rumor says the Sixers do not want to include Lou Williams in the deal.
The math doesn't seem to work out unless the Sixers are willing to include Lou Williams (after his BYC runs out later this month), they could also include Jason Smith to make the numbers line up.
This move would get Sammy off the roster, and it would give the Sixers somewhere under $10M in cap space next season, but it raises a few issues. First, they're probably going to be taking back more salary than they're sending out. Meaning, their wiggle room below the luxury tax for this season will shrink, possibly by as much as $5M. Meaning you can kiss Miller goodbye, and you can forget about using the full MLE to replace him. Oh, and you still wouldn't have a center.
It would be a big risk and I think you could officially consider this season a rebuild if they made this deal as constructed. Now, if they expanded it a little, sending more salary to Houston and getting something in return, like maybe Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks or Von Wafer, a player who fits a need, then I could live with it. ]]>
Let the Free Agent Frenzy Begin!tag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177382009-06-30T20:30:36Z2009-07-01T01:28:25ZWhen the clock strikes 12:01 a.m. tonight general managers across the country can officially open negotiations with free agents. After the jump I'll lay out my plan for the first NBA front office all-nighter of the Summer.Brian
When the clock strikes 12:01 a.m. tonight general managers across the country can officially open negotiations with free agents. After the jump I'll lay out my plan for the first NBA front office all-nighter of the Summer.]]>
I've got my list of players all set, now it's time to rate exactly how much attention each one deserves, and when.
Marcin Gortat: The Polish Hammer doesn't get a phone call at 12:01, instead his doorbell rings. Tony DiLeo and I arrive with a cheesecake, a contract and a pen. We sit down with the Hammer, tell him about the great Polish community in Philly, we promise him starter's minutes and we offer him the full MLE for 3 or 4 years with a player option for another. He knows he's our #1 option in free agency, he knows we'll offer him as much as we possibly can, he knows what role (a big one) he's going to play on our team. He's my top priority.
Jason Kidd: I sneak into the bathroom at Gortat's Orlando estate to make a quick phone call to Kidd. "Jason, Ed Stefanski here. Listen, we realize you're going to have a couple of different offers out there, but I just want you to know we want you. We can offer a two-year deal, full MLE, with a team option for a third. You'll be the starting point and a coach on the floor for a playoff team in the East. Athletes all around you. Get a feel for your options, but keep us in mind. We'd love to have you."
Rasheed Wallace: At 12:10 I send Rasheed a video message, it plays the Rocky Theme when he opens it, and the Sixers announcer says, "Starting at Center, from North Carolina, #30, Ra-Sheed-Waaaaaaaaaaallll-ace!" Then a personal message from me saying, "Sheed, we'd love to have you come home to Philly to finish out your career. Keep us in mind, you'd be our starting center, a hometown hero!"
Mehmet Okur: At 12:15, Eddie Jordan picks up the phone from Philadelphia and calls Mehmet Okur. He spends the next 45 minutes explaining how Memo will have free reign to stick Js from all over the floor in the Princeton Offense. He'll tell Memo the P.O. was made for a skilled big like him. He'll get Memo buttered up for the harsh reality that there may not be more than an MLE offer out there for him, and our MLE is just as good as anyone else's.Okur did not opt out. Cross him off your list.
Andre Miller: At 12:20 one of the IT guys at PCOM is secretly posting an encrypted message on a top-secret message board. This is the only way to communicate with Miller in the offseason. Hopefully he'll get the message within a couple of days from his hibernation spot in an undisclosed beach location somewhere far away from Philadelphia. The message reads: "2 years, $16M."
Mike Bibby: Bibby gets a simple text message some time in the wee hours. "Mike, your dad doesn't work here anymore. The coast is clear. Give us a call if you're in the MLE ballpark in a couple of weeks."
Kevin Pritchard: After an exhausting evening, I give Pritchard a call from the plane on the way back to Philly. "Blake and who for Miller?"
Daryl Morey: Finally back at PCOM, it's time to talk geek with the Rockets' GM. I sit down with DiLeo on one side and Harvey Pollack on the other. Morey answers and I turn the floor over to Harvey, "Mr. Morey, did you know that teams who won the opening tip won 62% of games this season? Did you also know that Samuel Dalembert won 70% of opening tips?" At this point, I take over. "So, Daryl, tough break with Yao, huh? I hear you're looking to move McGrady..."
That would be my night if I was Ed Stefanski, how would you kick off free agency? ]]>
The Mill Grinds Ontag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177322009-06-30T12:10:44Z2009-06-30T05:01:06ZIt's rare that a rumor is denied before I even catch wind of it, but it happened today. The rumor apparently sprung from a report in the South Florida Sun Sentinel, but for the life of me I can't find the original source. Anyway, Ed Stefanski quickly shot it down, and later today Bethlehem Shoals had his own take on the matter for the Sporting News. We'll examine the rumor after the jump and I'll give my take.Brian
It's rare that a rumor is denied before I even catch wind of it, but it happened today. The rumor apparently sprung from a report in the South Florida Sun Sentinel, but for the life of me I can't find the original source. Anyway, Ed Stefanski quickly shot it down, and later today Bethlehem Shoals had his own take on the matter for the Sporting News. We'll examine the rumor after the jump and I'll give my take. ]]>
The rumored deal was apparently Elton Brand for Jermaine O'Neal and Daquon Cook. First of all, I believe Stefanski's denial. This deal doesn't even come close working financially. O'Neal and Cook are owed a combined $24.4M this upcoming season, Elton Brand is owed $14.9M. The deal would have to be larger than just these three players. If you add Dalembert into the deal, it works financially, but as far as I know, Dalembert's name was never mentioned. The deal could also work if it was Brand, Lou Williams and Willie Green.
Shoals' basically said instead of dismissing the rumor out of hand, Stefanski should've explored it. I don't agree with some of his logic, namely that O'Neal is a better player than Brand, but I can't say that I disagree with the idea of the trade completely. Let's take a look at the merits of the trade and the financial situation it would leave Philadelphia in.
On the court, this trade would pretty much be a disaster. Of that, I'm convinced. While Elton Brand may be slowed by the injuries he's endured over the past two years, there is still a chance, and I'd even say a decent chance that he'll come back to play at a decently high level, if not at the All Star level he played at three seasons ago. O'Neal, on the other hand, is cooked. He's done. The guy has no legs left under him, he was one of the worst rebounding bigs in the league last season and where as Brand's injuries were freakish and unrelated, O'Neal has chronic leg problems. Honestly, O'Neal is a buyout candidate this year, that's how far he's slipped into the abyss.
Financially, however, if the Sixers could pull off a deal sending Brand and Dalembert to Miami for O'Neal and Cook, Philly would suddenly become a player in the much ballyhooed 2010 free agent class. They'd only have $38M committed to players, leaving roughly $20M to spend on the free agent(s) of their choice. Notable names: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire (ETO), Joe Johnson.
Personally, I find it highly doubtful that Miami would offer this trade to Philly, so this discussion is really a non-starter. But if, by chance, it was true and Pat Riley desperately wanted a low-post threat for Wade and a shot blocker in the middle to play their half-court game, should Stefanski pull the trigger?
That's really a difficult question to answer. Making a trade like this would be tantamount to admitting the Brand signing was a mistake. It would take a big man to do something like that. On the other hand, it would be a do-over and no matter who you send out with Brand, you'd be clearing a ton of cap space much earlier than expected. This season would probably be all about developing the young core. I think there's still enough talent there to make the playoffs, especially if you got something from O'Neal at the 5, but the won/loss success of the team would be largely dependent on the maturation of Speights and Smith.
So here's the question Stefanski would have to ask himself: does this roster plus $20M+ in cap space next Summer get you to a championship level faster than the status quo with the roster you have?
Obviously, you'd add either Sam or Lou and Willie to that roster as well (subtract about $4M from the cap space if you make the deal with Lou and Willie). Could you add a piece, or pieces in next Summer's free agent market that would fit this young core better as they mature? I have no illusions that Wade, LeBron or Kobe could be convinced to come to Philly, but Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson - any of the second tier guys - would probably just be looking for the cash and you have to think you could lure one or two of them. Hell, you could even make a case that LeBron should come to Philly because the other teams with cap space won't have a core of players like this for him to join.
It's a difficult question and one I'm fairly certain Ed Stefanski won't have to answer, at least not specifically this question, but there may come a time when a team calls to inquire about Brand's availability and they have a large expiring contract to offer. O'Neal is a slim possibility, but Tracy McGrady is floating out there as well. I honestly don't know what Ed would do in that situation, but I know I'd be tempted, especially if it meant getting rid of at least one of those bad contracts and clearing cap space for next Summer.
That was probably way too many words to devote to a non-rumor which was quickly denied, but it's a slow news cycle and I wanted to see what you guys thought about it. Would you be willing to press the do-over button on the Brand signing and take another shot in free agency a year from now? ]]>
Follow In Iguodala's Footsteps?tag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177242009-06-29T12:51:47Z2009-06-29T06:39:56Z
When the whirlwind of the NBA draft finally settles down and Jrue Holiday has a chance to take a breath and start thinking about how he's going to earn minutes in his rookie season, he really needs to sit down with Andre Iguodala. Actually, I'll take it a step further, he needs to become Iguodala's shadow. In the gym, in the weight room, in film study. You name it, they need to be attached at the hip because these guys have a whole lot in common.Brian
When the whirlwind of the NBA draft finally settles down and Jrue Holiday has a chance to take a breath and start thinking about how he's going to earn minutes in his rookie season, he really needs to sit down with Andre Iguodala. Actually, I'll take it a step further, he needs to become Iguodala's shadow. In the gym, in the weight room, in film study. You name it, they need to be attached at the hip because these guys have a whole lot in common. ]]>
Back in 2004 the Sixers were coming off an extremely tumultuous, disappointing season. They were saddled with a mismatched roster but weren't quite bad enough to reach the top of the lottery. They sat in their war room watching Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon and Devin Harris go off the board. The odds of a useful player dropping to them falling by the second. Then, a miracle happened. The Toronto Raptors selected Rafael Araujo at #8. Andre Iguodala, and athletic - if unpolished - wing had fallen into their lap. (Araujo lasted 3 seasons in the league, playing a total of 1,585 minutes and accumulating a total -0.4 win shares).
Coming out of Arizona, Iguodala was known as an athlete without a jump shot, but a guy who could stuff the stat sheet. I can remember people saying he was a consistent triple double threat at the time.
When he was drafted, however, the Sixers had Willie Green, John Salmons, Aaron McKie, Kyle Korver and Allen Iverson on their roster. A starting spot was not guaranteed, in fact, it wasn't even really expected. Iguodala appeared to be too raw, he was a long-term project. But something happened between the draft and opening night. Iguodala didn't wow the team with his ball handling, shooting, rebounding or playmaking skills that Summer, those traits would emerge much later. Iguodala wowed them with his defense.
This is the reason Holiday needs to become Iguodala's shadow, because Holiday finds himself in the exact same position as Iguodala, five years later. The Sixers don't need him to be an offensive threat, they have Iguodala, Thad, Brand and even Lou to score points. They don't need him to orchestrate the offense, really. The Princeton offense doesn't demand the traditional point to get things going. Holiday can play the point without really needing to trigger offense. Again, he'll have playmakers on the floor with him at all times.
Honestly, just like with Iguodala, it's an ideal situation for a kid to come into, especially this kid. Plenty of talent around him, no pressure to be the man offensively, no pressure to carry any kind of load on offense, really. If he can come into training camp and focus learning the offensive system and playing tough, sound, fundamental defense at the guard position he's going to earn minutes and he's going to earn them quickly.
Iguodala learned this truth about the NBA very early, he started the first game of his career and he's started every game he's played since. The offense has obviously come around, his role has evolved over time, but from the get-go it was his defense that got him on the floor. It was his defense that bought him the minutes to allow the rest of his game to catch up. Five years later, it's his defense that has made him the leader of this team. If he can get that message across to Holiday, it will open up a ton of doors not only for Jrue, but for the entire team. Doors that didn't even exist a week ago.
For example, my main concern heading into the draft was that far too much time was being spent talking about a lineup with Brand at the five, Thad at the four and Iguodala at the three. I hated that lineup because of the defensive deficiencies and the rebounding problems. If Holiday can prove himself to be a plus defender sooner rather than later, I think you can actually have success with a smaller lineup up front, because you have someone on the outside to ease the burden of the center in protecting the rim.
Here's one lineup:
PG: Holiday SG: Lou SF: Iguodala PF: Young C: Brand
Holiday takes the tougher matchup on the perimeter and youv'e got some balance. Four offensive weapons, 4 good-to-very good defensive players. You can do the same thing with Kapono
PG: Holiday SG: Kapono SF: Iguodala PF: Young C: Brand
These lineups take on a whole different look when you add a defense-first guy to the backcourt, and I think they become much more palatable than what I had originally envisioned.
That being said, I still believe the future of the team has to be a lineup something like this:
PG: Holiday SG: Iguodala SF: Thad PF: Brand C: Sam (until a suitable replacement is found)
I'm not saying I prefer the smaller lineup with Holiday at the point and someone other than Iguodala at the two, I'm saying it's preferable to the options before he was drafted.
Now, all of this reasoning is predicated on one thing, Holiday's defensive learning curve being much shorter than his offensive curve. I believe his lone season at UCLA, playing the role of defensive stopper for a defense-first coach, in a tough conference against very talented opponents will help, but ultimately it's going to come down to Holiday himself. The first step is realizing that defense equals minutes and he's got a great example right there in the locker room to show him the way.
To be clear, though, I'm not saying Holiday should start. I'm not saying that's even a remote possibility. This Sixers team is in much better shape than the team Iguodala joined. I am saying that Holiday's role can be more than 5-10 minutes per game from the start of the season, though, if he can figure out what to focus on and put the work in. ]]>
The PG Markettag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177212009-06-28T16:40:55Z2009-06-28T17:35:36ZNow that the draft has sorted itself out, and the Sixers have an apparent need for a veteran PG, let's take a look around the league and see who's going to be in the market for a PG, and which PGs are available.Brian
Now that the draft has sorted itself out, and the Sixers have an apparent need for a veteran PG, let's take a look around the league and see who's going to be in the market for a PG, and which PGs are available. ]]>
Lakers - Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown (Restricted FA)
Magic - Jameer Nelson, Anthony Carter (Unrestricted FA), Tyronn Lue (Unrestricted FA)
Cavaliers - Mo Williams, Delonte West
Rockets - Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry
Nuggets - Chauncey Billups, Ty Lawson, Anthony Carter (Unrestricted FA)
Celtics - Rajon Rondo, Eddie House (Player option), Stephon Marbury (Unrestricted FA)
Hawks - Mike Bibby (Unrestricted FA), Jamal Crawford, Jeff Teague
Pistons - Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum
Heat - Mario Chalmers, Chris Quinn (Player option), Luther Head (Restricted FA)
Sixers - Andre Miller (Unrestricted FA), Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams
Mavericks - Jason Kidd (Unrestricted FA), Jose Barea
Spurs - Tony Parker, Jacque Vaughn, George Hill
Hornets - Chris Paul, Darren Collison
Jazz - Deron Williams, Brevin Knight (Unrestricted FA), Ronnie Price (Restricted FA), Eric Maynor
Trailblazers - Steve Blake, Jerryd Bayless
Thunder - Russell Westbrook, Earl Watson, Shaun Livingston
Wizards - Randy Foye, Mike James, Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton
Nets - Devin Harris, Keyon Dooling, Rafer Alston
Knicks - Chris Duhon, Nate Robinson (Restricted FA)
Bucks - Ramon Sessions (Restricted FA), Brandon Jennings, Luke Ridnour
Raptors - Jose Calderon, Roko Ukic
Bobcats - DJ Augustin, Raymond Felton (Restricted FA)
Now, let's look at the teams who are most likely looking for a legit starting PG (Either to re-sign their own, sign a free agent, or via trade)
Philadelphia
Portland
Detroit
Dallas
Atlanta
New York
I put Atlanta on the list, but I'm not sure how they perceive newly-acquired Jamal Crawford. If they think he can handle the point while they bring Jeff Teague along, which is a possibility, then they can be removed. New York needs a point, but they're so obsessed with free agency next Summer, I doubt they're willing to spend now to fill the void. Of this group of teams, only Detroit and Portland have cap space, and Portland doesn't have much (maybe $8M if they don't make a qualifying offer to Channing Frye).
Now, here's the list of who I consider to be worthwhile free agent point guards. Meaning, guys who could probably handle a starting job, which is what the Sixers are looking for, I assume:
Jason Kidd
Mike Bibby
Andre Miller
Ramon Sessions
Jarret Jack
Raymond Felton
Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta and New York can only offer the full MLE, or work out a sign-and-trade. Philadelphia, Dallas and Atlanta could all simply re-sign their players, as well. Detroit seems to have bigger fish to fry. Most rumors have them pursuing Ben Gordon, possibly Carlos Boozer, maybe Hedo Turkoglu. I'm not sure how any of the veteran PGs would fit into their plans. Sessions is a possibility.
With Brandon Jennings going to Milwaukee with the #10 pick, I'd say it's a good bet that Sessions will not return to Milwaukee.
Charlotte will probably bring Felton back as well. Brown likes having multiple guys who can run the point and I don't see a huge market developing for him.
I'd say the odds are better than 50/50 that Bibby's days are done in Atlanta. Jack is a wild card, no way to tell what Indy is thinking. They may match an offer for him, or he may just play for the qualifying offer and test the waters next year as an unrestricted FA.
For me, the intrigue is going to come from Bibby, Kidd, Sessions and Miller. I assume Portland would like to have any one of them, and they have enough cap space to top the MLE, but I'm not sure they're willing to do it. They may be more likely to try to work a sign and trade, and save the cap space for a wing. Let's assume they do use the cap space for one of them, that would pretty much leave Dallas and Philly as prime destinations for the remaining three, possibly Detroit as well. The rub here seems to be that at least two of these guys are going to have to either re-sign with their current teams, or accept the MLE from one of the other teams in need of a point. There's also the possibility that a contender, like the Cavs, will try to lure someone like Kidd for the MLE to further their "all in" push for a championship with aged veterans.
From the Sixers' perspective, this is how I'd rank the possibilities:
1. Kidd for 2 years, full MLE (possible) 2. Bibby for 2 years, full MLE (doubtful, I think he wants more money, more years) 3. Re-sign Miller for 2 years, $8M per (this should keep them under the luxury tax. I don't go to three years) 4. Sign and trade with Dallas, we send Miller and Dalembert, we get back Kidd (signed to a two-year deal), Dampier, and a future pick. 5. Sign and trade with Portland, we send Miller get back Blake and Outlaw. Not ideal in my mind, but both are expiring contracts so they could be flipped. Blake could be a serviceable point for one season.
There's also another option. We could sink or swim with a PG platoon of Lou and Holiday this season. Maybe add a low-priced veteran like Brevin Knight to the mix and then save the MLE for another piece, like Gortat.
Thoughts in the comments, as usual.
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Building To Win, But When?tag:www.depressedfan.com,2009://1.177122009-06-27T12:57:45Z2009-06-27T19:20:01ZSince the selection of Jrue Holiday with the #17 pick in Thursday night's draft I've seen and heard reactions from fans ranging from loving the move to hating it. You all know which camp I fall in, and you know why. What really made me curious was the fans who were dead-set against Holiday. After the jump I'll take a stab at putting my thumb on the root of the frustration, and maybe shed a little light on what direction this team is headed, or to be more accurate, how quickly they're headed there.Brian Since the selection of Jrue Holiday with the #17 pick in Thursday night's draft I've seen and heard reactions from fans ranging from loving the move to hating it. You all know which camp I fall in, and you know why. What really made me curious was the fans who were dead-set against Holiday. After the jump I'll take a stab at putting my thumb on the root of the frustration, and maybe shed a little light on what direction this team is headed, or to be more accurate, how quickly they're headed there. ]]>
The first thing we need to do is take a look at the ten guys who are currently on the roster, their ages (on opening day) and the length of their contracts:
Elton Brand - 30 yrs (4 years remaining, player option for fourth)
Samuel Dalembert - 28 yrs (2 years remaining)
Willie Green - 28 yrs (2 years remaining, player option for second)
Jason Kapono - 28 yrs (2 years remaining, player option for second)
Andre Iguodala - 25 yrs (5 years remaining, player option for fifth)
Lou Williams - 23 yrs (4 years remaining, player option for fourth)
Jason Smith - 23 yrs (3 years remaining, rookie contract)
Marreese Speights - 22 yrs (4 years remaining, rookie contract)
Thaddeus Young - 21 yrs (3 years remaining, rookie contract)
Jrue Holiday - 19 yrs (5 years remaining, rookie contract)
So here's the question, are the Sixers built to win now? Actually, check that. Whether or not this roster can compete this season is irrelevant. There's a much more important question to ask: Will this team's window close in the next two seasons? Are they in a "win now or win never" type of situation?
If you believe the answer to that question is yes, you can probably stop reading right now. If they absolutely must find a way to contend right away, then I suppose the Sixers should've drafted Ty Lawson, because they absolutely need a guy who is on the verge of reaching his full potential. A guy who can step in and start from day one, if need be. Personally, I think the Sixers window is just beginning to open, though. So I think the answer to that question is a resounding no.
As things stand, when Dalembert, Kapono and Willie Green come off the books they'll have Elton Brand at 32 (with less miles on his odometer than a typical 32 year-old, if he can recover fully from the injuries.) Andre Iguodala will be 27. Lou and Jason Smith will be 25. Speights will be 24. Thad 23 and Jrue 21.
Pretty much every scout, analyst and informed basketball writer agrees that Jrue Holiday has a higher ceiling than Ty Lawson. He's got all the physical tools to be a better player on both ends of the floor, he's younger. Had he been allowed to declare for the draft straight out of high school, he would've been a top five pick. Had he gone back to college for one more season, it's likely he would've been a top five pick. The only reason he fell to the Sixers was a poor freshman season playing out of position at UCLA. Even so, his freshman year behind Darren Collison was much, much more productive than Russell Westbrook's. Westbrook barely even played as a frosh. Holiday forced his way into the starting lineup with his defensive skills. It was a crazy set of circumstances that allowed Holiday to fall into the Sixers lap.
If the Sixers internally had Jrue rated like most "experts" it would've been silly to take Lawson, and I can only assume that they did. They didn't go into this draft looking for a quick fix, because that's not how their roster is built. They're built to compete now and contend for years to come. From looking at the ages on the roster, I'd say their championship window won't even really open until two years from now. If that's the case, do you still think Lawson was the right pick? Would you rather have a budding star, a defensive stopper just coming into his own at 21, or a guy who's maybe tapped his potential and who is at best a passable, under-sized defender who's 24 years-old running the point? If you believe Holiday will be the better player ultimately, you have to pick Holiday, and I believe they absolutely made the right decision. If you think Lawson's ceiling is higher than Holiday's and/or there's a better chance that he'll reach his ceiling, then you just disagree with the Sixers' scouting. I think they've more than earned the benefit of the doubt with their picks over the past two seasons.
Here's the thing, though. With the roster set up to hit it's peak in let's say 2-6 years, it becomes even more important that the Sixers maintain flexibility heading into that period. Are the 7 guys they have under contract enough to make up the core of a championship team in 2011? No way to tell right now, but we do know that the Sixers will have three expiring contracts heading into that season. Three sizable expiring contracts, two of which belong to players who can actually contribute to a team willing to take a chance on them to make a run of their own. In a couple of years, that's when you start running the team with a larger focus on the present than the future, not before.
The planning has to start this Summer. For me, there is one goal over the next two seasons, and one rule. The goal is to win as many games as possible and go as deep into the playoffs as possible each season. I think it's crucial that the core players keep tasting success and keep testing themselves in the post season. The rule is that you make no moves that could possibly derail that window in 2011. Any veterans you sign must expire before 2011 (Kidd, Miller, Bibby). Any young piece you add (Gortat) must fit in as a big part of that team which will contend.
This brings me back to another gripe I've noticed from Sixers fans since the draft. Everyone seemed to want the Sixers to somehow work their way into the second round to pick up a shooter. I count myself among this group, by the way. If it's just cash we're talking about, then fine, they should've done it. But when you look at the trades teams pulled to get a pick in the second, most of them involved future picks and cash as compensation. If that was the asking price whenever they picked up the phone, then I'm taking the team's side on this one as well. This was a weak draft, if I had to give up a second rounder (or even two future seconds) in what will probably be a deeper draft to take a shot at a guy who probably won't amount to anything anyway this year, why would I? Better to keep your future picks and then maybe next year a guy you can really use drops to you in the second, it's more likely you'll strike gold in the second with a stronger overall draft class. ]]>