 Billy Beane's Futures Market The offseason trade market got an official start on Monday and someone should call Michael Lewis because I think Billy Beane is looking to have another book written about him.In a turn-baseball-logic-on-its-head type of move, Beane ponied up the one remaining established (and valuable) chip he had (Huston Street) along with two young pieces (Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez) for the premiere hitter on the market, Matt Holliday. I spent most of the day scratching my head and looking for someone, anyone, who would question Beane for this move. I found a lot of people who couldn't figure out the move and a couple who thought Beane was looking to compete this year, with this being the first of several moves. I'm leaning in a different direction altogether. In the past 13 months or so, Beane has traded away Danny Haren, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton and Chad Gaudin for a slew of prospects of varying talent levels. It seems as though cherry picking other teams' farm system sits well with Beane, so much so he's turned it into his overall strategy. In fact, I think that was the entire reason for this trade. Adding Holliday will not make the A's a contender, and I truly doubt the A's will go out and get the type of bats they need to make them one this season. Not unless he's willing to shell out some money in long-term deals. No, this trade isn't about this season. Billy Beane just turned Matt Holliday into a $9M lottery ticket. That's about how much money the A's will pay to Holliday between now and the trade deadline, roughly. If Holliday remains productive, any number of teams will be interested in his services for the stretch run. If Beane can land one blue chip prospect, he'll come out a winner, I suppose. If the gamble fails, then he gets 2 picks as compensation when Holliday walks and the price tag goes up to $13.5M. Further complicating things is the inclusion of Huston Street in the package. Street was a big chip for Beane, and he could've been parlayed into a few prospects on his own. The only other trade of this type that I can come up with is the deal the Marlins struck for Mike Piazza in 1998, but the motives were entirely different. The Marlins were in pure payroll-slashing mode. They sent Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Charles Johnson and two others to L.A. for Piazza and Todd Zeile. One week later they sent Piazza to the Mets for three prospects, including Preston Wilson. They got Piazza out of Florida before paying any of his salary, and cleared tens of millions off their books in the process. This Holliday trade is not that. I'm sure Beane and his assistant GM's ran all the numbers, and again, this is only my take on the trade, but here's the best formula I can come up with. For Holliday, Beane gave up a guy who can close (although he lost the job last season), a valuable commodity. A pitcher with mediocre success as a starter last year, and a talented young outfielder who may or may not be able to hit at the major league level. He also took on $13.5M in salary, which he can afford after slashing so much payroll with the trades he made in the past 13 months. Worst-case, he's got a premier corner outfielder for this season, which could help sell some tickets and maybe even keep the A's close to the top of the division in a weak West. Then Holliday walks at the end of the year and Beane gets 2 compensatory picks (either a 1st round pick and a sandwich pick, or a 2nd rounder and a sandwich). Personally, I think this is a steep price to pay for one year of Holliday without a real hope that he'll help you win a championship. If it winds up going down like this, Beane will be a loser on the deal. But, if he can flip Holliday for a quality package any time between now and the trade deadline, it could wind up being a great deal. In a nutshell, whoever he gets will have to trump Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and whomever he could've gotten for Huston Street. If I'm right, and this is Beane's motivation for the deal, what does it say about the game itself and the valuation of talent? Is this futures trading something that's going to become more common in baseball? Will it eliminate the notion of buyers and sellers in the trade market? I'm not sure. Beane is in a unique position among general managers of small-to-mid-market teams. For one, he's shaved an insane amount of payroll from the team's books and second, he's proven he can, at the very least, put a competitive team on the field with a limited budget. He's probably got more leeway than most GMs do. If this gamble blows up in his face, he's left holding a $13.5M bag, but really, the team isn't that much worse for the wear. If another team, without the extra money laying around were to make a similar gamble, the consequences could be much more dire. Then again, is there really more risk in gambling on a player like Holliday in the short term than signing a guy like Gil Meche to a big contract, or trading for someone like Matt Morris with another year left on his deal at $10M (both moves made by small market teams in recent years). All told, I think it would be a good thing for the game if more teams were willing to take risks like this. If you have 29 teams as legitimate bidders when a player is on the block you're going to see less lopsided deals, and you may even see rejuvenated fan bases if small market teams start landing big fish, if only for a couple of months. This type of deal could bring a whole new meaning to the term player rental. In fact, this would probably be a better use of the term. Small market teams rent players, the big markets lease-to-own.
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I don't know, I just think that if I was an A's fan, something just wouldn't sit right with me. I understand in a way what Beane does, but it seems like he unloads and re-stocks every year. How can a fan base get completely behind a team when they know that as soon as a player becomes good enough, he'll just be shipped somewhere else and they start all over again. Think about us Yanks fans, being able to buy a Jeter t-shirt in '97 and still be wearing it today. Why not get some of these players and lock them up to Robbie Cano like deals? A deal that's good enough to keep a talented young player for 5 years, but not so prohibitive that you can't go out and get a couple of others. I just think I would be extremely frustated, but hey, I'm no genius like Billy!
I am an A's fan and it is frustrating. I was so mad the second half of last season, because Beane shipped out Harden, Blanton, and Gaudin.
I'm still not sure what to think of this deal. I've tried to map it out a million times, but nothing makes sense right now.
"Think about us Yanks fans, being able to buy a Jeter t-shirt in '97 and still be wearing it today."
... Well, for A's there is always that Eric Chavez jersey t-shirt that one can wear . . .
Haha, thanks for further proving my point. I have a lot of family in Sacramento and they're all A's fans. They have loyalty but they say the only nice thing about going to the games is you can get in so cheap. Thank the good lord for Mr. Steinbrenner.
a's are a loser organization that has no fans to speak of ... the few fans there are (27th in mlb home attendance) are the worst in mlb.
Way to make a broad generalization. Very intelligent
Actually, I went to a playoff game in Oakland a few years back and I was really impressed with their fans. Granted it was a playoff game, and it was the game they clinched against the Twins, and a large portion of the crowd apparently had cataracts, and they didn't open up the upper deck, but the crowd was very knowledgeable and into the game. More than I can say for a lot of the Bronx crowds over the past couple of seasons.
The team has fallen on hard times since then (or been thrust into them by Beane, depending on your POV), but still, there are good baseball fans in Oakland.
Harden- always injured, no matter how high upside. he was a 7mill risk
Blanton- steady mediocrity of a #4 SP
Gaudin- he's like a righty version of greg smith. he complained about his bp role. he got injured and struggled with cubs
I have a feeling this will work out well, he sold high on Huston Street (who had been struggling through last year) and prospects are prospects.
I GUARANTEE some team will be tripping over itself to get him at the trading deadline (hopefully not us).
I've read Moneyball and admire Billy Beane for being able to pull together quality teams (while not World Series teams, still decent teams) on a shoestring budget. He's a lot shrewder than most GMs in the league and has brought about evolution in baseball and the way people think about a player's value. He's more than likely fleeced all the GMs around the league at one time or another in terms of recognizing good talent and getting the better end of the trade.
I'm guessing Holliday is the next big free agent in 2009. In the meantime, Beane has rented a quality player. If they are in contention in July before the trade deadline, Holliday will remain through the season. If the A's are not in contention, he holds perhaps the best bargaining chip going into the trade deadline.
PS... Gotta thank him for Joe Blanton in Philly here. When Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton each self destructed, Blanton came in and gave us quality starts and proved to be a good #4 starter.
Actually, Beane has a philosophy of "trading the closer".
He feels that baseball's love affair with closers is actually a market inefficiency - that closers are overvalued.
Beane keeps "creating" new closers, then sending them elsewhere for profit; Jason Isringhausen (whom he acquired as a prospect from the Mets for, you guessed it, former As closer Billy Taylor), Billy Koch, etc., etc...
Street's just the latest example. According to the As, saves are overpriced; a guy comes in in the 9th, and does not always (some would argue "rarely") face the top hitters in the lineup.
So - you can take a slightly above-average pitcher, drop him into the closer's slot, let him accumulate a gaudy number of saves, and then sell him off.
You could, essentially, buy a stock, inflate its' value somewhat artificially, then sell it off for more than you'd paid for it in the first place - especially with compensatory draft picks.
I'm not sure that I'm one hundred percent with this theory, but I offer it as a "why Billy Bean does what he does".
The thing is, Holliday's value will drop when he gets out of Coors and stops hitting .330.
I'm so glad that I'm no A's fan.
I truely believe "Mr. Bean" is crazier than Ozzie.
I am an A's fan (sorry if we are not high in attendance or have a huge payroll) but there are a lot of fans and we follow the team with great interest.
This trade is great for several reasons A) we get an elite five tool corner outfielder B) we only give up a marginal starting pitcher, a closer that was benched and a prospect outfielder that did not show a lot last year and C) we are in a no lose situation going forward; we can trade Holliday for a package at the turn or keep him and get a two first round picks for him.
The A's have good fans, I stuck up for you guys above.
I think the general confusion doesn't come from this trade alone, but from the moves the proceeded it. If Beane really wanted to compete in 2009 he wouldn't have traded away those four starters, Haren especially, and if he did he would've gotten some ML-ready help back in the packages, rather than just projects and prospects.
This was a move you'd expect a team to make who just needs one guy to get them over the top this season. The fact that the A's aren't in that position is what leads to my train of thought in the post.
Thanks for the comment.
I think this may have been a misstep by Beane, unless he ends up trading Holliday before the season starts. Check out his career home/away split:
Home (Coors Field): .357/.423/.645 (BA/OBP/SLG), 38 HRs per 162 games
Away: .280/.348/.455, 21 HRs per 162 games
Outside of Coors he's a good, but not great, hitter. If he plays a few months in Oakland and bats .280 with like 12 HRs at the break, his trade value will be tremendously diminished.
Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like Holliday's value can only go down from here. Beane should try to trade him immediately
He's also going to one of the worst hitters parks in the league, so his drop off may be even more severe.
I'll bet Billy Beane is a mad genius with something up his sleeve. He's a step ahead of most of the managers around the league and has bested many of them in trades.
Mark in Toronto has an excellent post about Beane and the value of a closer. Beane has 'manufactured closers' and elevated their value, only to get good draft picks/prospects in return. And now he's holding onto a hot ticket and waiting for its value to increase. I agree with Brian that Holliday's value will probably go down once he's in a pitcher friendly park, but maybe
I agree that saves are, in general, overrated. K-Fraud will get $$$$$$$ from the Mets, and if you watched him, he really isn't that dominating. He gets hit like the ALDS with the Red Sox showed and walks people. Days of true iron men relievers like Fingers and Gossage, who go for 2-3 innings are gone. Holliday will be good for the A's, either as a better player than most people expect at the OAK home park, or as a trade chip midseason. And I like Billy Beane, if for no other reason than Scott BorASS must hate him!
What is Billy Beane's compesation? I know that he recently signed an extension with the A's, does anyone know what type of compensation package he got and/or where I can find out that information?