 Do the Yanks Need Gagne?
Here’s why I don’t think any of those guys are going anywhere. There’s a plan in place right now. Phil Hughes coming back to the rotation is step one. Joba Chamberlain moving to the pen is number two. Number three is Ian Kennedy’s ascension to the big club (probably in ‘08) and number four is a big free agent signing. This is where I think the Yankees are going with their pitching staff. Two years down the road, the rotation will hopefully be Phil Hughes, Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Free Agent #1 and Free Agent #2. Who will the free agents be? There are going to be some big names available in the next two off seasons, namely Carlos Zambrano and Johan Santana. Front-of-the-rotation guys. Coming off the books the same year Santana hits the free market are Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina. That’s $28 million per year the Yanks are free to spend. The second free agent will probably be filler. Maybe Pettitte for one more year, hopefully not Mussina. The key thing to note here is that Joba is not in the rotation. There’s a reason for this. The Yanks are grooming Joba to be the next Mo. Moving him to the pen in AAA is the first step toward this goal. Whether they trade for Gagne or not, I think Joba will be in the pen before the end of August. He’s going to have a couple of years to learn under the best, and we’ve seen the results of Mo’s tutelage in Vizcaino this year. With Joba and Mo games will again be 7 inning affairs, shades of Mo and Wetteland in 1996. Chamberlain is the hardest thrower of the three studs, and while his physique may turn into a problem if he’s a starter, it shouldn’t be a concern when he’s only asked to throw 20–30 pitches max. This was a much longer post than I intended to write, but to bring us back to the beginning, Gagne may become a Yank, but it isn’t life-or-death. If the asking price doesn’t come down, I expect him to go elsewhere and Joba will do his on-the-job training in the eighth inning role. If they get Gagne, he’s got more time to work his way to the deeper assignments. Of course, this plan looks great on paper, whether or not Joe will be forced to pitch the kid is another thing. One way to do it would be to get rid of Farnsworth and Proctor. All we can do now is keep our fingers crossed for the next 23 hours or so. 
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The big question regarding the Yanks and the trade deadline is whether they’ll be able to get Eric Gagne without giving up too much. The answer is that the only way he winds up in NY is if the Yanks can get him without giving up any of their three studs (Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy).
i agree with everything u said, except 1 thing
They said Joba is going to the pen this year, but hes still supposed to start in the long run. Do you really think they would permanently convert him to the pen? I t hink the only way that happens is if we see LIGHTS OUT from him when he does pen work, ala papelbon...
i also heard another (but highly unlikely rumor) somethin about Melky for Gagne....do you do that (and pray damon is back lol) or n ot?
Melky should be as untouchable as Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy are. I'm probably in the minority, but I value him as highly as those guys. If the Yanks trade him for Gagne they're taking a giant leap in the wrong direction.
The more I think about Joba, the more I think he's better suited to be a closer. The Yanks probably would never say that publicly for a couple of reasons, #1, if he doesn't pan out in the pen, they have the fall back of starting him, and he wouldn't be deemed a failure because he was supposed to be a starter. #2, because it would probably diminish his value as a trading chip, if they were ever going to consider it.
Personally, I love the idea of grooming Mo's replacement now, from within. If the Yanks have the top three in their rotation and their closer locked down, in their twenties, they're going to be set.
I agree with you that Joba should be groomed for Mo's replacement, and his future would be brighter as a reliever than a starter. As high a prospect as he is considered, almost everyone agrees that he's, at best (at his peak) a #2 or 3 starter, not an ace.
Now scouts and "everyone" aren't always right, but let's assume they know more than I do. We're talking Ted Lilly like potential as a starter - decent numbers, but not top of the line ace numbers. His stuff is far more explosive than a Lilly (a lefty control pitcher), and he has excellent control, but he doesn't have much movement on his pitches, and he doesn't have an out pitch (like Pettite's cutter or Mussina's knuckle-curve). He's been striking them out in large numbers in the minors, but that could just be because he's a college pitcher who is an overmatch for the minor league hitters.
I don't know if that's the case, or if he's really that freaking good. But if he's really that good as a starter, he can be that good as a closer (see Papelbon and Gagne). And if so, then I think he can solve the Yankees 8th inning problems for now (acting like Mo did back in the beginning for Wetteland, making it a 7-inning game), and eventually take the mantle. If that happens, the Yankees not only solve a long-term dilemna (what happens after Mo), but they enjoy the next two years or so with a potentially dominate bullpen. That's more important to them right now then having another starter.
I don't know if it'll work out as well for them as Papelbon did for Boston, or Mariano did back in '96, but they have to try. And I'm excited to see what happens....
i kinda want him to be a starter, he defintely has tools to be a number one guy.(not on the yanks with Hughes and Wang chillin around though)His out pitch is a change up , although it does need to be improved, and his K/9 is best in the minor leagues (12 or so, with about 2.5 bb/9 I beleive)
on the other hand...
In his first AAA releif appearence...
Chamberlain threw 13 pitches, 10 of them for strikes.
All three balls came to the first batter he faced.
Gil Velazquez struck out looking at a slider, a pitch that was setup by a 99 mph fastball.
Denard Span took two straight 99 mph strikes, then fouled off a pitch and finally struck out swinging at a breaking ball in the dirt. Looked like a curveball to me.
Matt Tolbert struck out on three straight fastballs, the fastest of which hit 97.
Prez,
You summed it up right there. I think right now he could dominate out of the pen. The learning curve is much shorter as far as pitching strategy and patterns are concerned in the pen. You only face guys once, you don't have to work through tough lineups three or four times.
I know it's tempting to have him in the rotation, but think about why the Yanks have so consistently good over the past 11 years. The answer is Mo. He's been their anchor through it all. If Joba is all he's cracked up to be, physically and mentally, they just might have that position sewed up for another decade, and you can't put a price on that.