The sports world is abuzz with dreams of Boston rings and pennants and parades, oh my. If you missed it, in the past 24 hours Boston sports teams have traded for a roid-head Canuck and a legit NBA Superstar with 35,443 minutes of high-octane basketball on his odometer.
Sour grapes, you say? Could be, maybe I’m not seeing clearly, but there are a couple of things about both of these trades that you Boston fans may want to take a look at.
Celtic Fans: On June 27th, you had zero superstars on your team, a blossoming low-post threat, the number 5 pick in the draft, and a bevy of young, talented role players. 33 days later, you have 1.5 superstars, all over 30 (this season), all with serious minutes behind them, and a steep decline ahead of them, and about 9 holes on your 12–man roster.
If you’re wondering about my math, Paul Pierce is no longer a superstar. He’s older than his 29 years, he is no longer explosive, and he’s a liability on defense. Yes, he still averaged 25 points per game last year, expect 5–10 points to come off that average this year.
Ray Allen is a shell of his former self, making him a shell of the player Michael Redd is now. Defensive liability doesn’t begin to describe him these days, and he’s got gimpy ankles and knees. I’m counting Allen and Pierce as 0.5 superstars. They can both take over a game on any given night, but neither is capable of carrying a team over an extended period of time at this point of his career. Both players’ offensive output is offset by their severely deteriorated defensive skills, diminishing mobility and recent injury problems (Allen and Pierce combined to miss 62 games last year.)
Kevin Garnett is still legit. He’s a top five player in the league. A top five player in the league who’s never advanced beyond the conference finals, in 12 years in the league, but still a top five player. This year, he’s going to be rejuvenated. He’s going to be a beast. This year, Garnett might just carry this team deep into the playoffs. This year, they may even have a shot at the Finals. All of this is possible.
Of course, Garnett has had this type of cast around him before, in 03–04. Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell put up the type of numbers I expect from Allen and Pierce this year. The only difference is that Cassell was the point, and Latrell could actually defend the other team’s best perimeter player. This year, the Celts have Rajon Rondo (40% from the floor, 20% from three, 64% from the line), no perimeter defender to speak of and Kendrick Perkins in the middle. The bench is even worse. Brian Scalabrine is the only returning player who averaged more than 15 minutes/game last year.
Jeff Green, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Delonte West, Sebastian Telfare, the Celts #1 in 2009 and also the T-Wolves #1 pick next year (which is a lock to be a lottery pick). That’s a nucleus. Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Rondo and Perkins, that’s a meltdown waiting to happen. The “big 3” will be motivated this year, they may make a run at/to the Finals, but they won’t be winning a championship. This franchise has no future, so live it up this year, Celtics’ fans. In a couple years, you’re going to be wishing for another year like the pitiful 06–07 tank job.
Sox Fans: On the field, you guys got better today. No doubt about that. Barring an injury, drug suspension or meltdown, the ass end of your bullpen is probably the most formidable in the league. You didn’t over pay for Gagne, what you gave up was pretty fair value for a rental. The only thing I have to say to you is that you better break out these signs again:
Because the guy you just traded for is just as guilty as Barry Bonds. Gagne is the face of the under-belly of the steroid scandal. Here’s a newsflash, just as many pitchers were juicing as hitters. That extra 5 MPH on the fastball didn’t materialize out of thin air. If you’re calling for an asterisk next to any Bonds record, then there better be one next to Gagne’s consecutive saves record as well.
Here’s one final piece of good news for you Red Sox fans, after 106 games your beloved team’s record is 64–42. After 106 games last year, their record was also 64–42. Their record at the end of ‘06? 86–76. Feel comfortable?
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Brian I thought my analysis on the trade was hard enough for the Celtics but you took it to a new level, LOL !!!
Let it pour, Brian... I hate the Celtics.
Big deal... they're favored to win the weak Atlantic division. That doesn't get them past LeBron and the Cavs. So what if David Ortiz and Terry Francona are ponying up for tickets and jumping on the bandwagon? Let's see what happens when one or two of the big three are injured and they have to go to the bench....gee... where are all their young guys?
And as for the Red Sox, yeah, they just added the biggest pitcher out there. Yeah, they're loaded for bear. Now the pressure's on them as it's been on the Yankees in previous years and expectations are World Series or bust. They are spending truckloads of money. Anything less than a World Series win and they are disappointing.
The Red Sox bullpen was already the best in the AL before Gagne, so I'm actually pretty surprised about the trade. Getting Jermaine Dye (thought I wouldn't have liked it) made more sense to me.
I don't like Gagne, and I don't like the steroid taint he brings with him.
In order for the Yankees to finish with their 97-65 record of 2006, they have to go 40-16 for the rest of the season, which means they must win 71% of the games. Let's say they go 96-66 instead (winning about 70%). In order for the Red Sox to beat them by only one game, and win the division, the Sox only have to go 33-23 the rest of the season, which is only a 59% winning percentage. So, yeah, I'm feeling pretty comfortable.
How does that make Yankee fans feel?
Growing up a Phils fan, I have no reason to hate the Red Sox... they don't hurt my Phillies. But I can't stand Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling and agree with Erin's assessment of Gagne. Beckett threw a hissy fit in spring training and went after Ryan Howard and acted like an ass. (Ryan is a gentle giant, but could kick the crap out of him.) And Schilling...if there was a guy who in battle would be most likely to be murdered by his own troops, it's him.
So no hate for the Red Sox, just a little jealousy over your management and pitching.
The Celtics, on the other hand... there's REASON to dislike them.
I can't speak for all Yankee fans, but I feel pretty good today.
The Yanks made it through the trade deadline without mortgaging the future, they're committed to Melky in center, Hughes in the rotation and soon enough, Joba in the bullpen.
Whether they win anything this year or not, they're setting themselves up for another long run of dominance.
As for this season, 33-23 is hardly a given for the Sox. Last year they finished 22-34.
I'll skip the Red Sox bashing... I think it's going to be a fun finish down the stretch (keep in mind the Yankees are now, what, two games out of the Wild Card?).
The Celtic bashing was a little harsh. Not that I disagree with you - you made some good points - but they did what they had to do to make themselves relevant again after last year's disaster. Danny Ainge has to save his ass somehow!
The Good: Pierce is a still a stud (he's just been playing with nobodies for too long - you'll see how good he is once again this season), and KG is a former MVP. He's still that good. He's not just an All-Star or a superstar - he's one of the top 5 players in the league (LeBron, Kobe, Dirk, Nash, KG).
But unless they shore up their team this season, they don't have enough depth to get very far into the playoffs. And you can't win with Rondo at the point unless he gets better very quickly. Much less that awful bench.
Longterm, I think Boston is screwed. They'll win too many games to get a good pick, and they'll never be able to trade Pierce, Garnett, or Allen after the next two seasonss. All are paid too much money, and will be 33 or older in two years. Not good, especially since Pierce is around for 4 seasons and Garnett for 5 more.
Danny Ainge has to save his ass somehow!
Exactly, Ainge keeps his job for a year or two, the Celts make the playoffs, and then this team completely implodes.
The Red Sox only have to go 33-23 if the Yankees go 40-16. So, it doesn't have to be a given.
And yes, "last year they finished 22-34." I won't regurgitate stats, but this year's pitching staff has been much, much better. And the Red Sox won't get swept in five games at Fenway.
I agree, though, it will be a fun finish.
Agree with Brian that Ainge had to save his job with the moves....he managed to buy himself a year, maybe two, if fortune smiles on him and all three somehow stay healthy. Also agree with SML that in the longterm, Boston screwed themselves. They traded away young talent in Green, West and esp. Jefferson as well as draft picks.
But that's all fine with me... GO SIXERS!