 Who's Missing From the Mitchell Report? (Part 2) Earlier today, I started taking a look at 15 players who may or may not deserve the same level of scrutiny the 85 listed in the Mitchell Report have received, based purely on statistics. After the jump we'll take a closer look at numbers 6-10 on my list. Now we're starting to get into questionable statistical variance territory.
Darren Daulton, 1992  Why he's on my list: I had to have one member of the early-90s Phils teams on here, and "Dutch" Daulton seemed a perfect fit. He put up monster numbers for a couple of seasons, then injuries crippled him, textbook career life cycle of a juicer. Here are the stats (Daulton's 1991 season was injury-plagued, so I've included 1990 stats as well, he last full season prior to 1992)...
My take: Personally, I think Daulton was a user. He got huge, put up monster numbers, then suffered a myriad of injuries for the rest of his career. His jump from '91 to '92 would've put him near the bottom of this list, the jump from 1990 to 1992 was still drastic, but less so. The league-wide ERA dropped from 3.79 in 1990 to 3.68 in 1991 all the way down to 3.50 in 1992.
Jeff Kent, 2000  Why he's on my list: Kent had several seasons with a slugging percentage of over .500, none came before his 30th birthday. In 2000, he won the MVP with his best offensive year, by a healthy margin. Plus, he was playing in San Fran during the whole BALCO fiasco, so on the list he went. Take a look at the stats, I think he was a good addition...
My take: If we're talking from a purely statistical point of view, Kent is a tough nut to crack. Yes, he didn't really start hitting for power until after his 30th birthday, but he also didn't get a whole lot of playing time in his 20s either. He didn't top a .500 slugging percentage until he was 30, but he's stayed above that point ever since. I think Kent's career arc is probably natural, it just happened later than usual because the Mets never gave him the opportunity he needed. Moving away from Shea Stadium probably helped as well.
Luis Gonzalez, 2001  Why he's on my list: Before we get started with Gonzo I just wanted to say that every player from here on down deserves serious attention. Personally, I think all of them had some help in putting up these numbers. Luis makes the list because his 2001 season was by far the least-expected offensive explosion of the past two decades, possibly in the history of the sport. Here are the numbers...
My take: These statistics are more damning for Gonzalez than the testimony of McNamee and Radomski is for Roger Clemens, in my opinion. Gonzalez went from a decent middle-of-the order guy seeing his numbers boosted by a hitter-friendly park to one of the most productive power hitters in the history of the game in the space of one season. That just doesn't happen to 33 year-old guys.
Mark McGwire, 1998  Why he's on my list: Duh. Although I can't write this without saying he and Sammy Sosa may have saved the sport in 1998, however they got it done. Here are the numbers...
My take: The amazing thing about the giant leap in McGwire's numbers in 1998 is that his numbers were spectacular in 1997. He made this leap over a year in which he hit 58 bombs. If there was any doubt left as to McGwire's innocence in my mind (which there probably wasn't) looking at these numbers erased it.
Brady Anderson, 1996  Why he's on my list: The biggest one-year wonder in the history of sports. Anderson got huge overnight and starting hitting bombs at an alarming rate. He set the record for HR by a leadoff hitter, then disappeared off the face of the Earth. Here are the stats...
My take: If I had to bet on one guy on this list as a user, the money would go on Brady Anderson. No history of being a HR threat before his miracle season. A precipitous drop coupled with numerous injuries after said season. Anderson screams user to me. Click here to view part three of the series and find out who number one on the list is (here's a hint, his initials are not BLB). 
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if u could bet on who was not named in the report that has used steriods , you can safely bet your house and kids that DAVID ORTIZ has used roids there is no doubt about it. The mitchell report was just a big waste of money it left out about 70% of people who used steroits as he only had a few sources.. The redsox could breathe a sigh of relief that their trainers didnt rat on the current redsox players or we would hve a lot more to talk about ..Keep juicing papi your going to need a few more cycles to hit joba next year!!
Ortiz is in the first part of this post. I tend to agree with you, but the numbers don't really jump out at you as much as I thought they would.
The most noticeable big name missing? Nolan Ryan.
Before Nolan Ryan, fireballing pitchers did not make it to 35+ at full strength, due to the stress that throwing hard takes on your body, especially your shoulder. Mike Scott?
Then Ryan comes along, and it's now common for 40 year olds to be tossing hard.
And, of course, Clemens got the steroid itch from somewhere (it wasn't Canseco, damnit... that's too easy).
Oh, and speaking of 40 year olds with career years... Kenny Rogers. I loved that red herring during the WS, with the pine tar on his glove... yeah, that's why he dropped 40 straight shutout innings, not the HGH....
I purposely left pitchers out of this, just so I could compare apples to apples. I hadn't thought of Nolan Ryan, but you're right, he deserves a look. Rogers definitely, along with Schilling.
Pitchers are a little harder to pigeonhole based on stats alone, because they can recreate themselves when they get older. A guy who was a decent power pitcher when he was young can change into a very good control pitcher when he gets older. A key stat would be K/9, I think.
Disagree about Brady Anderson. In order for your theory to hold he would have had to say to himself: "The steroids didn't work, I only hit 50 so I won't take them any more." He went right back to his usual production after '96 and played his usual number of games. He was always susceptible to injury because he threw himself about the outfield on defense. The guys on your list who most deserve it, and Caminiti, had sustained increases in production.
Suggestion for a look is Paul O'Neill. His career arc puzzled me before I was even aware of steroids.
He had a sustained increase in New York over his well established level of production in Cincinnati, and it occurred after what should have been his peak years agewise.
MT Head,
O'Neill's jump from his last year in Cincy to his first year in NY would've put him between Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez, his jump from his first year in NY to his second year in NY (the strike-shortened year) would've put him between Luis Gonzalez and Mark McGwire, so yep, he probably belongs on this list as well. Good call.
As for Anderson, his numbers did normalize after that season, so maybe he was on then off roids, maybe he got too big (musclebound) and sapped himself of that power. Maybe pitchers found holes in his swing? There are several explanations for why he didn't keep up the pace of 1996, I can't find a logical reason for that increase in 1996, however. Except steroids.