by Brian on September 5, 2008 at 12:10PM
Baseball Think Factory has a long post, with plenty of numbers, breaking down how they think the A.L. MVP race shakes out. Keep in mind that this is a completely objective look at certain numbers and does not take team success, nor situational statistics into account. If I had a vote, which I never will, I'd probably weigh those factors as well, but still, it's an interesting (and frightening) barometer for player success.

They use offensive and defensive stats to come up with their uberstat, OPD (offense plus defense). It's assumed that a zero in a category is league average. Grady Sizemore has the highest OPD value (44.74), hence, he's their MVP at this point. Wladimir Balentin had the worst at -25.40.

Here's how your favorite Yankees measured up:

  • Giambi (17.94 OPD) - 5th among 1B, -3.74 on defense seems generous.
  • Cano (-21.74 OPD) - Dead last among 2B, second lowest rating in the entire league. Yikes.
  • A-Rod (31.45 OPD) - Best among 3B, 5th best overall.
  • Jeter (11.62 OPD) - 3rd among SS, behind Scutaro and Aviles. Just a tick below average (-0.09) on defense.
  • Molina (-12.44 OPD) - At the bottom of the C rankings. His -0.12 on defense baffles me.
  • Damon (20.13 OPD) - 3rd among LF, -2.40 on defense, which seems generous.
  • Melky (-13.85 OPD) - Not quite dead last at CF. His defense (7.49) ranks 5th among CF. His offense (-21.33) dead last.
  • Abreu (-13.76 OPD) - Abreu has, by far, the worst defensive ranking in the league at -22.76.
  • Matsui (2.11 OPD) - In limited action, obviously.
So, the Yanks sport the second least-valuable player in the league (Robinson Cano), the worst defensive player in the league (Abreu), our catcher, who has thrown out 45% of would-be stealers, is below average defensively. On the other hand, we have the fifth-most valuable player in the league, best third baseman, a top short stop, left fielder and first baseman. Make of that what you will.

If the Twins win the central, my imaginary MVP vote goes to Mauer. If the Sox win it, Quentin. A-Rod really doesn't deserve any votes, in my opinion. This season, while statistically strong, was nothing like last year and the team has woefully underperformed.

Here's the google doc from BBTF listing all the players in the AL. 



Also on the Network:
√ Four Straight? [Depressed Fan]
√ A Little Help? [Depressed Fan]
√ The first taco [Cobra Brigade]




[September 5, 2008 2:59 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Tom said

Hmmm... I'm not sure why Molina rates so low. Maybe he's really bad at fielding bunts and nubbers in front of the plate?

Even if that's the case, I would think his success throwing out base-stealers would work in his favor.

[September 5, 2008 3:12 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian replied to Tom

They use zone ratings, meaning balls hit into a certain zone that should be fielded by the average player at that position. I can't say that I can recall bunts and dribblers that he should've fielded but didn't, but I assume that's what cost him. He only has 3 errors and 6 passed balls in 85 games. Who knows.

[September 5, 2008 4:58 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Tom said

I had a theory that Molina's strong arm caused less SB attempts, thus limiting the number of runs he prevents in the system.

However, it appears that not only is Molina throwing out runners at a great percentage (44), but runners are actually attempting SBs on him more than the average catcher!

In the entire AL, there have been 17,405 IP this season, and 1575 SB attempts. That equates to one SB attempt every .09049 IP.

Molina has caught 659 innings this season, with 68 stolen base attempts him, or one attempt every .1031866 IP.

Given Molina's innings caught and the AL average, he should have 60 SB attempts against him. So, AL baserunners have attempted 13% more SBs against Molina than against the average catcher, despite the fact that Molina is great at throwing out attempted base-stealers!

The AL average for throwing out runners is 27%. Given Molina's 68 attempts against, an average catcher would have thrown out 18 base-stealers. Molina has thrown out 30.

I can't imagine he's been THAT bad on plays in the field that it nagates everything he's done to neutralize opposing running games

[September 5, 2008 8:05 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian replied to Tom

Great analysis, as usual. I question that defensive rating.