I'm beginning to think that lefties really are built backwards (no offense to our resident
Lefty). It's not that they're bad people, or that they smudge ink on the page when they write, it's that there's always something weird going on with them.
Case in point, Andy Pettitte
declined his $16M player option today. Everyone and their brother is saying, don't worry about it, he just wanted more time. The problem with that line of thought is that Andy's a lefty, and you cannot predict what a lefty will do in any given situation. Sure, he says he's going to pitch for the Yankees in 2008 or not pitch at all, but his best friend Skidmark has said he's retiring about 20 times now, and come back every single time.
I'm not going to pencil Pettitte into the rotation until he signs on the dotted line, and I'm not going to believe he's retired until September rolls around and he isn't pitching somewhere. This whole situation has me more than a little peeved. I'm not sure what his thought process is, I mean, he's 36 and coming off a strong season. 36 is practically a pitcher's prime these days. No one likes their family that much, do they?
Anyway, Pettitte is only one of the southpaws who has GM's all across the country and I scratching our heads today. If I told you Johan Santana (29), Scott Kazmir (24) and Eric Bedard (29) were all rumored to be available, would you believe me?
Santana we know about. 2008 is a contract year, and I assume he's expecting a MONSTER payday come 2009, so he's basically a very expensive rental, or someone is going to trade for him and sign him to a monster extension to keep him off the market. (Luckily, his agent is not Lucifer Boras). Santana's situation makes the most sense. But the other two? Let's take a look. Age before beauty, so we'll start with Bedard.
The Rumor: The Orioles are thinking long-term, and may be
inclined to trade Erik Bedard rather than sign him to a pricey extension, from the Baltimore Sun, found via
MLB Trade Rumors.
The Player: When I first read the stories, I thought Bedard was younger than the 29 he will be when the 2008 season starts. Bedard started in the Orioles farm system way back in 1999, and it took him some time to work his way up to the bigs. Since breaking into the rotation in 2004, he's improved every year until 2007 when he just might've been the best pitcher in the American League (until his season was cut short with an oblique injury in August). Bedard is a legit ace, whose age may be a bit misleading, considering the number of innings he has on his arm.
The Logic (or lack thereof): This one is a head scratcher. Bedard won't be a free agent until after the 2009 season. He made $3.4M in arbitration in 2007, and while he's going to get a bump, he's still going to be a bargain. If the Orioles are seriously considering trading him at this point, they're basically saying to their fans "There's no chance we'll be relevant in the next two years, but thanks for buying all those season tickets." That's not a statement they should be making, in my opinion. I'm wondering if this is going to turn into a Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell situation. The Orange Birds are desperate to get rid of Miguel Tejada, and his name is bound to be sullied by the roid investigation, maybe it'll be a "You can have Bedard, but you have to take Tejada too," scenario. No matter how you slice it, you're going to have a ton of angry Orioles fans if Bedard is moved for anything less than a major-league ready, impact bat and a top-shelf prospect.
A Fit For The Yanks?: The player, absolutely. In fact, I might even take Tejada and his contract back, move him to third, or put Jeter at third. The problem is the price. It would be easier to stomach giving up prospects for a two-year rental, than a one-year rental (like Johan Santana), but I still don't want to see the team moving in that direction. It would probably take Melky and Hughes, or more to get a deal like this done. One last word of caution: When teams start shopping aces, I start to wonder what they know that I don't. Meaning, maybe that oblique strain had a little something to do with his elbow.
And now, the Devil Rays...
The Rumor: The D-Rays are going to be keeping a close eye on the Johan Santana trade market, and may just put their own southpaw ace, Scott Kazmir,
out there as well. Now, this rumor comes from the NY Post, so take it with a grain of salt.
The Player: There's no confusion about Kazmir's age, he'll be 24 when the '08 season starts, and he's already an ace. The only blemish on Kazmir's stat line is the high walk totals (89 in 206 innings in 2007), but he makes up for with an impressive 10.2 Ks/9. He's legit, he's an ace, and he's a lefty.
The Logic (or lack thereof): This may be a case of the seller's market dictating the D-Rays' moves. Carlos Silva is probably the best free agent pitcher on the market (if you consider Andy Pettitte off the market). GMs are going to be falling all over themselves to save Johan Santana from small-market hell. The Rays may see this as their best opportunity to move the lefty. The only problem with that logic is that the Rays may be one or two good pitchers away from contention. They have a ton of young bats, and the last thing they should be doing is trading away a legit ace. Kazmir won't be a free agent for three more years, and he's only 24. If they do in fact trade him, they're going to be asking a king's ransom, but why take the risk? Best case scenario, they get back two top-shelf pitching prospects and hope one of them turns into what Kazmir is right now, and should be for the next 5 or 6 years. It just doesn't add up.
A Fit For The Yanks?: Duh. Kazmir isn't as polished as Santana and Bedard, but he's also 5 years younger, and he won't be a free agent for one more season in Bedard's case, and two more seasons in Santana's case. I think Phil Hughes is going to be something special, but is there any guarantee he'll ever put up numbers like Kazmir has over the past two seasons? No, there is not. Add to that Kazmir's career numbers against Boston (2.66 ERA, 118 Ks in 101 innings). If Kazmir becomes available, I think he's the most attractive trade target for the Bombers. The only problem is that the Devil Rays are notorious rape artists when it comes to trades. After all, do you remember who they gave up to get Kazmir from the Mets? It would cost the Yanks at least Hughes and Kennedy to get him, probably more, I think. That price tag is enough to make anyone balk.
The Rumor: The Orioles are thinking long-term, and may be inclined to trade Erik Bedard rather than sign him to a pricey extension, from the Baltimore Sun, found via MLB Trade Rumors. 
Could it be that Pettite just wants to see what the market could offer? Somehow, I don't compare him to the likes of a-ROD if he is doing so. Pettite just seems to have more class than that.
Like it or not, lefties rule. You can't have a legit pitching staff without at least one lefty SP and one lefty reliever. And as I've said before, there's a deficit of promising LHP in the Yankee farm system. Bedard would be a very attractive and inexpensive option, but I agree that you have to wonder about a guy who was shut down in August for an oblique injury...is that the real reason? The Yankees are not the Phillies and will do their homework before signing another possible Carl Pavano, though.
There's really no reason not to believe Pettitte, he seems like a pretty honest guy. I just can't bring myself to be optimistic about any news right now w/ the Yanks.
By the way, since he filed for free agency, it's impossible for the Yanks to bring Rivera, Posada, Pettitte and A-Rod back, not that they really care about A-Rod. Teams can only sign 3 type-A free agents in the off season. That also means they can't bring in a guy like Rowand if they bring Mo, Jorge and Andy back.
"The Rebuilding Years"
not as entertaining as "The Wonder Years."
this sucks.
Please god I can't take anymore news coming out of Yankee land. It seems like everyday another player (or manager) jumps ship.
And seeing Torre on the cover of the daily news in a BUMS uniform made me sick.
We are either in a really good way or we can look forward to getting b*tch slapped for the next couple seasons. I heard Tony Kornhieser (PTI) say the yanks are good for 85 wins in '08. Think he's being optomistic cus he's a Yanks fan?
Brian whats yer take? Have we lost too much of the core to compete. Who do you think (realistically) we end up with, speculation aside, gimme yer real take on who we field next season.
Aaron,
It's such a crap shoot at this point. I still think Mo and Posada come back and if I had to bet, I'd put money on Pettitte coming back right after them. That gives us the veteran core. From there, I'm not sure where we go. Trading Melky is no longer an option if Mo, Posada and Pettitte all come back, because we can't go out and sign a free agent center fielder.
As the roster stands right now, 85 wins is optimistic, but I expect there to be major changes between now and opening day.
The thing that worries me is that I think missing the playoffs in 2008 is not the worst case scenario. It would be far worse if Hank & Hal set their mind on winning a ring this year, and force Cashman to make a bunch of dumb moves, sacrificing the future.
This is based on absolutely nothing, but here's my projected starting lineup for the Yanks next season...
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Abreu RF
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Posada C
6. Cano 2B
7. Adrian Beltre 3B
8. Matsui DH
9. Aaron Rowand CF
Posada and Mo come back, Pettitte retires. The Yanks sign Rowand as their third Type A free agent. Hughes or Kennedy is gone in the Cabrera deal, so is Melky.
Again, based on nothing, I just have a feeling Hank & Hal are going to make a splash.
Thanks for the insight. I think you are right about the Steinbrenner boys, they want to carve out their own nitch. Can't say I blame them based on that. Let's just hope the mistakes they make aren't too damaging.
The young pitching should be untouchable (hughes, Kennedy and most importantly Joba).
Just wanted to get your take on what things will look like when the dust settles.
I have to admit I have always held Miguel Cabrara in high regard. He is a great hitter but his defense leaves something to be desired.
What type free agent is Cabrara? A ? B ?
How old is Rowand? Whats he got to offer? If he comes to NY will it be a long term thing?
Rowand is type A. He's 30 years-old, and I'm assuming it's going to take a 4-year deal to get him. Cabrera isn't a free agent, they have to trade for him. If the Yanks get Cabrera, it's going to cost them one of the three young pitchers, at least.
The biggest problem with Cabrera is his weight, he just keeps packing on pounds. He's a butcher at third, so I think you immediately put him at first.
Forgot to ask........
What type of free agent is Beltre?
Does he play a good 3rd?
And whats the liklihood we actually see him in pinstripes?
Beltre isn't a free agent, they'd have to trade for him too. He's got a great glove, gold glove caliber. As for the likelihood, well, if they sign A-Rod, I'd say it's pretty good :) otherwise, they'll probably ask for too much for him.
He's on Seattle right?
What would they want in trade for Beltre?
He's a 25 HR, 100 rbi guy right?
If they don't want too much, I say bring him in!
why is aaron listening to what tony kornhole says?? hes not even a sports guy, and has no buisness being on mnf.. and why on gods good earth would you wnt beltre on the yankees???? is brians projected lineup is correct i will hang myself. this is mine....damon jeter abreu bonds giambi cano melk bettemit molina , howeven i may be the only yankee fan that thinks arod is still coming back and the only one that wants him .
Why would any Yankee fan not want Arod to come back? He's the best baseball player in the world.
Scourned as we feel, he's still the best option for any team.
I could care less about his nonsense off the field. We are just living in the real world where the Yanks brass drew a line in the sand and Arod crossed it. End of story. We are now trying to speculate over who will replace him.
For all I care Arod and Guisseppe Franco can go be butt buddies in Iowa somewhere. WE NEED A 3rd BASEMAN!!!
I'll take Beltre over Crede anyday.
As far as Tony Kornholer goes I was just mentioning that to Brian b/c it was something I heard in passing. I thought 85 wins for us was a bit optimistic, and coming from Mr. PTI I thought it was even that much more amusing.
Cabrera's weight concerns me. If a guy can't find a few million $$$ reasons to stay in shape and take care of his body, it shows a lack of discipline.
As for Hank and Hal, I'd like to see them make a big splash with a free agent pitcher moreso than a position player. Re-sign Mo and Posada and a legit Lefty ace. Then deal with finding a third basemen.
As for Kornhole, he's the most annoying announcer/commentator/analyst in the sports world next to Ron Jaworski.
Here's some good news (indirectly) for the Yankees...
Kurt Schilling will finish his career with the Red Sox. He will not be a Phillie, nor will he be a Yankee. There is a baseball God.
Thank God Schilling didn't go to a team I actually like.
I can't fight this sinking feeling that I keep having about Pettitte going to the Dodgers.
Brian-
What do you know about Masahide Kobayashi?
Is he a credible player for the Yankees to take a look at?
I don't know a lot about the Japanese guys. Kobayashi is a cool name, though :)
Thought I'd ask cus I saw his name mentioned in a bunch of places. couldn't find a whole lot on him though.
All I could find was that he is 33 and he has recorded at least 20 saves in 7 consecutive seasons. Not much more available.