by Brian on June 2, 2008 at 8:36AM
Jorge Posada should return to the Yankee lineup either Tuesday or Thursday of this week. I figured there's no time better than right now to see exactly what the Yanks have been missing. Below you'll see a quick comparison of what the Yanks got out of their starting catcher to this point in 2007, and what they've gotten so far this year.

Posada in 2007 (through June 1)
ABHR2B3BHRRBIBBAVG
173623118063317.358


Moeller + Molina 2008 (through June 1)
ABHR2B3BHRRBIBBAVG
16538161401148.230


So, how much of a boost will Posada give this offense? Obviously, you can't draw a one-to-one comparison, but I think it's safe to say this team will be much more efficient on offense once he's back. Beyond the pure production he provides, having a switch hitter in the middle of the lineup will break up the row of lefties and make it much harder for teams to neutralize them late in the game with a lefty specialist out of the pen.

The Yanks have weathered lengthy injuries to Posada and A-Rod, a win tomorrow means they will have done it with a record above .500. Now that the offense is healthy, or almost there, it's time for this team to put a serious run together.


Also on the Network:
√ Four Straight? [Depressed Fan]
√ A Little Help? [Depressed Fan]
√ The first taco [Cobra Brigade]




[June 2, 2008 9:35 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Tom said

I was just looking at BP's Value Over Replacement Player stats, and I saw that Jose Molina is 685th out of 711 players to have played this year. Molina's VORP is -5.7, which means that he's been even worse than a hypothetical "scrub" player.

I dont know what Posada's VORP was last year at this time, but he ended the year at 73.4. If you prorate that to 56 games, that's about 25.4. Thus, you can estimate that the Yankees would have scored about 30 more runs this season if Posada had been healthy and playing as well as he was last year. That's a BIG drop-off.

Not to mention that, but the people who filled in for A-Rod during his injury have been even worse. Betemit, Gonzalez, and Ensberg are all in negative territory, and they combine for a VORP of -8.7 (Granted, not all of that below-replacement performance was during A-Rod's injury, but still...thats pretty bad)

Using VORP and games missed as a basis of estimation, I would guess that the injuries to A-Rod and Posada have cost the Yankees offense about 50 runs. On average, 10 additional runs of run differential usually account for 1 additional win, so the injuries to A-Rod and Posada have cost the Yankees 4-5 wins this year. Using the more conservative estimate of 4 wins, that would mean a record of 32-24, which would have them 2.5 games behind Tampa

By the way, Robinson Cano is currently 697th in VORP, at -6.7

[June 2, 2008 1:21 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian replied to Tom

An extra 50 runs would put the Yanks right at the top of the league, top five I believe, which is where they belong.

Hopefully with everyone back in the lineup and some stabilization in the rotation, the Yanks will play quality ball for an extended stretch. We haven't seen it yet, but the excuses are just about gone now.

[June 2, 2008 4:04 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Tom said

One other point about missing A-Rod and Posada for an extended period of time. Missing those two guys also affects the performance of the other hitters in the line-up.

Obviously, A-Rod and Posada get on-base more than Molina and Ensberg/Gonzalez/Betemit. So, the pitcher faces less situations where there is a runner on-base, which has three major effects:

1. He can pitch from the wind-up, instead of the stretch

2. The hole on the right side of the infield is open less often, since there are less runners on first base that need to be held on

3. The starter usually uses less pitches and goes deeper into the game, giving the Yankees' line-up less exposure to the opposing team's weak middle relievers.

Having both of those guys out of the line-up was a nightmare. I suspect having them both back will give the offense a huge boost. We've already seen a much improved offense since A-Rod's return.

Also, on a side note, I really hope Edwar gets a chance at more high-leverage appearances. I think he's our second-best reliever, now that Joba's moved into a starter's spot

[June 2, 2008 4:26 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian replied to Tom

Agree with you about Edwar, the only question I have is his ability to handle failure. I want him in a game ASAP after giving up that solo bomb the other day. He needs to get right back out there.

The main difference this year for him is a trust in his fastball and the ability to throw quality strikes with it. If he keeps that up, I have no problem using him as your 7th inning guy, or even 8th if/when Farnsworth falters.