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Replacing A-Rod Should Not Be Top Priority

dontneedarod.jpgWhen you subtract 156 RBI and 143 runs from a lineup obviously the knee-jerk reaction is going to be "We have to find that offense somewhere else." Today, I'm going to use a particular newfangled stat favored by the new-age, nerdy baseball scholar crowd to illustrate why this line of thinking isn't necessarily sound in the Yankees' case.

The stat we're going to use is VORP (value over replacement player). By the way, all the stats I'm using here were taken from Baseball Prospectus, so check them out when you get a chance.

Here's a pretty good explanation of VORP. In a nutshell, the number you're going to see is the number of runs created over what a replacement player would produce. We aren't going to worry about pitchers, statistically, today. Only batters, or lineups to more accurate.

Now, let's forget about the National League, because it's very easy to forget about the "baseball" they play over there, and let's forget about all the teams who didn't make the playoffs last year because we absolutely don't want to model our team after them. That leaves us with the Yankees, Indians, Red Sox and Angels to look at.

Here is the VORP numbers for the starting lineups of each of these teams, the total is at the bottom. Remember, the higher the number, the better.

Indians
Yankees
Player VORP Player VORP
Victor Martinez 55 Alex Rodriguez 96.6
Grady Sizemore 53.8 Jorge Posada 73.4
Travis Hafner 30.7 Derek Jeter 53.3
Ryan Garko 27.8 Robinson Cano 40.5
Jhonny Peralta 26.3 Hideki Matsui 32.4
Casey Blake 17.6 Bobby Abreu 27.9
Franklin Gutierrez 8.3 Johnny Damon 17.8
Asdrubal Cabrera 7.6 Melky Cabrera 9.8
Kenny Lofton 0.3 Doug Mientkiewicz 5.8
Total 227.4 Total 357.5

Angels
Red Sox
PlayerVORP Player VORP
Vladimir Guerrero 62.6 David Ortiz 86.2
Chone Figgins 36.2 Mike Lowell 46.5
Orlando Cabrera 31.7 Dustin Pedroia 35.9
Casey Kotchman 26.2 Manny Ramirez 34.6
Garret Anderson 22.1 Kevin Youkilis 31.1
Howie Kendrick 19.3 Jason Varitek 23.4
Gary Matthews Jr. 15.8 J.D. Drew 15.1
Reggie Willits 15.2 Coco Crisp 11.9
Mike Napoli 13.8 Julio Lugo -1.3
Total 242.9 Total 283.4


And now here's the Yankee lineup going into this season (assuming Posada signs, which is looking likely.)

Yankees
PlayerVORP
Jorge Posada 73.4
Derek Jeter 53.3
Robinson Cano 40.5
Hideki Matsui 32.4
Bobby Abreu 27.9
Johnny Damon 17.8
Melky Cabrera 9.8
Doug Mientkiewicz 5.8
Total 260.9


According to these numbers, even without A-Rod, the Yankee offense in 2007 would've been the second-best among the playoff teams in the American League. Doug is probably gone as well, but his 5.8 VORP can be replaced by just about anyone. If they use a 1B platoon of Shelley/Giambi I'd expect the number to be higher than that. The point here is that the Yankees shouldn't need an All-Star caliber bat to get back to the playoffs. They should score enough runs with an average player at third. They need to spend their money shoring up their pitching.

In real-world stats, the Yanks scored 101 more runs than the Sox, 157 more runs than the Indians and 146 more runs than the Angels. They still didn't make it out of the first round of the playoffs. Bludgeoning teams to death hasn't worked for the past 4 years, and it's debatable whether it ever will. For the Yankees to trade away pitching prospects for an impact bat at this point seems illogical. Trading away pitching prospects who are going to be in the rotation this season, and contributing seems downright stupid.

I'm really hoping the Yanks will take a look at these numbers before they go out and trade for Miguel Cabrera. In fact, if they're looking for a short-term solution, how about a DH with a 55.2 VORP for about $12M on a one-year deal? If you truly believe that you have to score an obscene amount of runs to compete, I'd much prefer making a deal with the Devil for one year's service of Barry Bonds at DH than signing your soul over to him by trading away top-shelf pitching prospects for an impact bat. No matter how productive that bat is.

Granted, these are last year's numbers. It's highly unlikely that Posada will reproduce his 73.4 VORP, but I think Cano and Melky are going to progress, so the numbers as a whole will probably even out.

If you're thinking about making a splash in the trade market, at least make the splash in the pitching market. Bolstering the offense is going to lead to more of the same.



8 Comments | Leave a comment

While Alex Rodriguez is obviously a Great player, with that being said there is NO WAY I would want him as a member of the RedSox! I would MUCH RATHER that Mike Lowell stay as a member of the RedSox! Overall he is a much classier and better player on and off the field. Most importantly there is no other player that i want as my third baseman in October than Mike Lowell.

Shappy,

There's really no contest as to who is the better player. A-Rod's the best player on the planet, Lowell is a good third baseman in a very good situation (Fenway) with a great glove. That being said, I completely understand why Red Sox fans want him to stay. He's a great fit up there, he seems like a good guy, he has a great glove, and there's a history. It's the same reason I don't want Lowell in NY, just from the opposite perspective.

If I was a Sox fan, I'd be saying the exact same things. Fans have loyalty down, for the most part. Sometimes I wish the players and owners would take their cue from the fans.

a real good article , Brian. I really like what Brian Cashman is doing, I think he'll come through, i feel like he has total control over things now, and he didn't previously (last 4 years). maybe its just me, i dunno.

we need releivers, seeing as our reliable releiver count with mariano stands at a whopping ONE. And i'm no sabrmetrician, but i think the sox and indians each had at least 3 reliable non closers...

Thanks Prez. I agree about Cashman, the only questionable move the Yanks have made over the past two years (since he took control) was the Igawa signing, and I think we can chalk that one up to George insisting on not being upstaged after the Dice K signing in Boston.

I'm not sure what the answer is for the bullpen. The best pen they can assemble includes Joba, but they seem pretty dead set on using him in the rotation. I think Ohlendorf and Veras will get a shot. I heard they want to bring the Viz back, plus there's always Farnsworth :)

Overall decent way of looking at it. It's really hard to consider the value loss when ARod ultimately departs and leaves the lineup in shambles, honestly.

I would hope that these guys could put up similar numbers next year, like they did this year but also consider this, ARod was the centerpiece of the lineup. Who is going to bat clean up? Can we honestly assume that Posada is going to bang out another season at the plate like he had this year? Outside of Jeter and Cano, none of the guys in the lineup have produced steady numbers outside of ARod.

In closing, I like where your head is at on this one. You only have this past year's stats to go off of, but the remaining guys in that Yankees' lineup could not produce in the 4 hole without triggering a trickle down effect to the other hitters, which will lower their overall "VORP".

Boney,

Posada's number is going to drop, I don't think there's any question about that. Cano and Melky I think will rise because they're young, and progressing.

The Yanks aren't going to be as good offensively as they were last year, probably not even close. The point is that they don't have to be. I'm not sure how much trickling down A-Rod did, either. Posada was the only Yankee who had a career year, and he didn't bat after A-Rod for most of the season. The protection A-Rod provided for Abreu may have actually hindered his game, which is largely dependent on walks and working deep into counts. I wouldn't be surprised if Abreu's VORP goes up this year, along with his walk total.

I think it's also safe to consider though, and again I do like your train of thought, that Abreu isn't going to post # like he is accustomed to doing. He hasn't been the same offensively, or defensively, since he hit the record amount of homers in the derby a few years back. I know it's cliche to throw that out there, but that's almost the exact turn of events of his career. He's been on the downturn and yeah, he gets on base, he can steal a base or 2 (a la Bernie Williams), but he's only going to continue to go down.

I think ARod offered a lot of protection to the 1-3 hitters in that lineup, face it, even in '05 in the ALDS I was afraid to pitch to that lineup (as a Tigers' fan) simply for the fact of the potential Abreu/ARod matchup, now who's going to hit 4th? Abreu doesn't look so tough when he's only smacking out a smattering of bombs while the 5th-9 batters don't appear to have near the impact they will last year once you get past the first 3.

You have to admit, yeah, the Yanks don't need to be as productive based off of this year's stats in comparison to everyone else, but ARod was also one of the youngest guys in the lineup besides Melky and Robinson. Their power numbers and/or production aren't going to go up significantly (RBI, HR, AVG). I'd say Cano has topped out at where he can get, and that's a great level to be at, while Melky... well, I'd expect a spike maybe for Melky but he's more of a young Abreu without all the walks and power.

Boney,

Without a doubt, the Yanks aren't going to score like they did, and they do lack that "fearsome" bat in the middle of the order. But they do still have 1-3 batters who get on base and see a ton of pitches (Damon, Jeter, Abreu), and 4,5,6 batters who drive runs in (Posada, Matsui, Cano). It's not a lineup that's going to scare people to death, but it's enough of an offense to score enough runs IF the pitching holds up.

Since we're using VORP here, say they lose 30 points off their team total due to degradation of skills and the A-Rod ripple effect, they're still ahead of the Indians, and just behind the Angels. If they get a guy with a 20 VORP to play third (Troy Glaus was 20.3 in 2007, so it's not that tall of an order), they're right back in the thick of things on offense.

The point being, they can "fix" the offense without giving up prospects, or making any drastic moves. They need to worry about fixing the pitching.


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