 Rivera Should Determine Joba's Role
I tackled the easiest Yankee personnel decision on Friday, today I'm going to dive into a much more complex issue. The Joba Conundrum.
 Anyone who saw the big kid pitch this season knows he's something special. Not only does he have a high-nineties fastball, a high-eighties slider, a high-seventies 12-6 curve, a legit change-up that we've never even seen and pinpoint control, but he's also got the intestinal fortitude to want the ball when the game is on the line. He thrives in the pressure cooker late innings, when the game is close and the fate of the team rides on his right arm. This last quality is perhaps the most important to keep in mind as you read this post.The Question: What should Joba's role be on the 2008 Yankees? The Answer: I'm going to give you my simplified answer in an easy-to-digest format, I'll explain my reasoning below: Mariano Rivera Leaves = Joba Chamberlain Should Close Of course, there are two problems with this train of thought for me, 1) I don't want to see Rivera go. He's still got a couple dominant years left in him. 2) If Joba is "that" guy starting in 2008, we'll never know if he could've been the other guy. You know, the go out there and throw a shutout in game 7 of the World Series, type of guy. Which brings us to the other scenario. If Mo comes back on say a 2 or 3 year deal, then what do you do with Joba? I was of the belief that he should spend the next couple of years under Mo's wing, and provide the Yanks with a one-two punch out of the pen unmatched in the league. Watching the playoffs, and the dominant pitching performances which always define the post season, I've come around. If Joba has a chance to be that, we have to find out, and we have to find out in 2008. If Joba spends a season or two in the pen, it's going to be too late to convert him back to a starter. That's not an absolute certainty, but it will definitely be harder. 2007 was Joba's first year in professional ball. All told, he threw 112 innings in '07. The modus operandi for the Yankees is to gradually increase their young pitchers' workload. The rule of thumb seems to be a 20 inning jump, per year. I don't really agree with this philosophy, but it's something they believe in. If Joba was to spend the entire season as the closer, he probably wouldn't throw more than 80 innings, and that would be pushing it. If he does it for a couple of years, he'll be accustomed to that amount of wear-and-tear. If at that point, you suddenly transform him into a starter, and expect 200 innings from him, you're probably going to wind up with an injured Joba. 2008 is the year to do it. They could spend the season testing out his stuff, stamina and makeup as a starter, with the added benefit of increasing his workload, and building his long-term arm strength. Obviously, the ideal outcome is for the Yankees to re-sign Mariano Rivera, as soon as possible. Having him on the roster not only keeps a living legend in the pinstripes and gives them a top-tier closer, but it also allows them the flexibility to experiment with Joba's role. Two more things: 1) Joba needs to spend some serious time on conditioning this off season. He's a big dude, and not in a particularly good way. If he doesn't get his conditioning down now, it could turn into a major problem down the road. 2) The workload on the three young pitchers (Joba, Hughes and Ian Kennedy) could be a problem after the All Star break in 2008. Here are their inning totals for 2007, keep in mind that the organization likes to increase workload by 20 innings per year.
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there is no if!!! we have to sing rivera if he goes the yankees playoff run is over plain and simple...i think joba shoud remain a setup man for 2 more years..making every yankee game a 6-7 inning game like in 96... as for trading wang melk and ian for johan that would be an absolute disaster.. didnt he lead the league in hrs allowed last year??? why trade out younger ace for and aging ace??? not to mention we can just buy him next year. if that trade goes down the youth movement is over and th yankess are finished. that im my mind would be the most idiotic trade ever!!! 3 top starting players for a lefts whos skills delcined last year.. please casman do not pull that off!!!!!!
Agree. Mo Rivera will be re-signed. There is no reason to not give him whatever he wants - 3 years, $45 million? You have to overpay him, because of what his past success has done for the franchise. Just get it done.
Now, once that done... I still like the idea of Joba as a closer/set-up man. But I agree that if you want to see what he can do as a starter, then now is the time. I honestly think he'll be okay as a starter, but nowhere near as dominant as he would be as a closer.
Excellent point on the innings pitched for Hughes and Chamberlain. That's something I'm worried about, to. Hughes injuries and Joba's conversion actually knocked them back a bit in terms of progressing. The Yankees are just going to have to roll the dice with both of them, and maybe give their arms a rest in August if nothing else. I would even suggest the Yankees get creative, and rest Hughes for three to four weeks in August, and then Joba for another three to four weeks (presuming he's still a starter), so both will be strong down the stretch and into the playoffs.
I have a feeling we're going to see a six-man rotation at some point, and we may also see Joba go the pen for a month to conserve his arm. It's going to be interesting.
A six man rotation would give the young arms a chance to rest and possibly avoid injury. I agree with SML that now is the time to see what he can do if he's a starter, although I really think he has the personality and heart of a closer, and not just a one inning guy.
Off topic, but the mouth that roared (Schilling) has let something fly that, as a Phillies fan, has got me thinking. He has stated that if Boston does not re-sign him, he'd go to the Phillies. I'm not sure if he's talked to anyone there or even if they'd want him. The last time he was a FA, he expressed interest in being a Yankee, so you'd have to think the Yankees are on his short list of teams as well...
If you guys were Pat Gillick ( or someone with a brain who was in charge of the Phillies) or Brian Cashman, would you re-sign the 40 year old mouth?
I don't think he'd be a good fit with the Yanks. Right now, the Yanks have 6 guys for the rotation (assuming Pettitte doesn't opt out and no one else leaves or is traded). That's reason enough, but I also just hate the guy's guts.
The Phils may be a different story, depending on what type of contract he wants. If it's a 1 or 2 year deal for a reasonable price, he might be worth a shot. Again, I hope it doesn't happen because I actually like the Phils and I don't want to have to root against them one out of every five games.
Schilling burned a lot of bridges mouthing off about the Phil's management and coaching before he left. The Phils are a real nice group of guys that appear to all get along, and I'd worry that Schilling's mouth would screw that all up.
The Yankees are in much better position pitching wise than the PHils, however. Honestly, the Phils are desparate.
Let Mo go. I would offer him a one-year deal for 7mil. If he doesn't like that he can go. Joba is the future. The Yanks need to unload all their old, dead weight.
The Yanks do have old dead weight on this team (Mussina, Giambi) unfortunately, they can't unload either of them. Mo is not dead weight, and needs to be brought back.
if the yankees signed schilling i might boycott yankee games for a year. Honestly, out of all the people in the major leagues, i'd give any A-hole a chance, anyone at all, except for schilling and youkilis.
I agree. Schilling would be very hard to root for. I already prey everytime Mussina takes the mound that he either a) breaks his arm or b) gives up eight runs in the first. I really don't need to two losers to root against. Especially one who faked a bloody sock just to get some attention.