by Brian on October 20, 2007 at 8:10PM
futureyankees.jpgThe last shovel-full of dirt hasn't been tossed on Joe Torre's managerial casket and the rumors are already reaching fever pitch. MLB Trade Rumors has a piece today chock-full of Yankee speculation. Here are the highlights, my thoughts are below:

  • The Yanks are very interested in Aaron Rowand, an unrestricted free agent.
  • The Yanks are going to offer very, very lucrative contracts to Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada before the World Series ends. They do not want either guy to hit the open market.
  • The Yanks are apparently mulling an offer of Ian Kennedy, Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera to the Minnesota Twins for Johan Santana.
In order: I like Rowand a lot, but he isn't needed. I'm assuming he could be had for somewhere in the neighborhood of $40-$48 million over 3 or 4 years. Not a bad contract for a guy like him, he plays the hell out of center field, and his offensive numbers were excellent last year (though they'd drop a ton in Yankee Stadium). Overall, I think they're better off sticking with Melky.

I'm very happy to hear that the Yanks are going to take an aggressive tact with Rivera and Jorge. Those guys are Yankees, and need to be for their entire careers. Not to mention the fact they are both still performing at a very high level. I think both will probably get 3-year deals, probably around $13M per year.

Now, the trade rumor. Obviously, if this trade happens, then getting Rowand becomes a lot more palatable, and necessary, but that's beside the point. This is just too much to give up, in my opinion. Yes, Johan is the best pitcher in the game (his numbers were down a bit this year, but he was still dominant with a 3.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.66 K/9). He'll only be 29 when the 2008 season starts, and I'd have to think any deal of this caliber would be dependent on the Yankees signing him to a long-term extension. Under normal circumstances, I'd say no price is too high to get a legit ace. A guy you can throw out there in game 1 of a playoff series and know he's going to shut the other team down. Frankly, if it was Wang, Kennedy and either a prospect, or Matsui, I'd be thrilled. I just have a very big problem with giving up 2/3 of your rotation, and your starting center fielder for anyone. Wang will be 28, Kennedy will be 23 and Melky will be 23 to begin the '08 season. That's not only youth, but major-league tested, bonafide talent in Wang and Melky, and a top-shelf prospect with major league experience in Kennedy.

It's tempting to think about going into a season with a rotation of Johan Santana, Pettitte, Hughes, Joba and Mussina, very tempting. The bottom line, for me, is that I don't want to see Melky included in any deal. For my money, the four untouchable young guys on the Yankee roster, and in their system, should be Melky, Cano, Hughes and Chamberlain. It's a little fuzzy, but I think Johan also has a partial no-trade clause, which may turn into a full no-trade clause should he finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this season, which he probably will not.



Also on the Network:
√ Four Straight? [Depressed Fan]
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√ The first taco [Cobra Brigade]




[October 21, 2007 5:14 AM]  |  link  |  reply
JJ said

Hey Brian, how's the baby doing?

Aaron Rowand would be great as a Yankee, but he's 30, Melky is 23. Melky is cheaper and has more upside at this point in his career. Rowand will also generate interest from the White Sox and you don't want to get into a bidding war for him.

I agree that the Yankees should consider Wang, Joba, Cano and Melky untouchable. Don't trade away young, homegrown talent for pitching, even if it is Santana.

[October 21, 2007 5:24 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian said

JJ,

The baby's keeping us up all night, but she's happy and healthy, so no complaints here.

If the Yanks accomplish all of their goals, which seem to be re-signing Rivera and Posada, extending A-Rod, and trading for Santana (then extending him), we could be looking at close to a $215M payroll next year. It'll drop significantly in 2009 (Damon, Matsui, Giambi, Pavano, Mussina and Pettitte all come off the books), but for 2008 the payroll would be monstrous.

That's an awful lot of pressure for whoever takes over as manager. Not sure I envy him.

[October 21, 2007 5:31 AM]  |  link  |  reply
JJ said

Welcome to the land of no-sleep. Just wait till she's 18, you return there.

Santana would be a great guy to pick up because the one knock on the Yankee farm system is a lack of left handed pitching talent. The only problem is, what do you have to give up for him? I'd love to see the Yankees go with two big lefties in their starting rotation for '08.

Has Mussina said he'd definitely be back?

[October 21, 2007 5:42 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian said

Mussina's under contract. I doubt he'll retire and leave $11M on the table.

[October 21, 2007 10:52 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Prezs2ReprsntMe said

totally unrelated but does anyone know when erik bedard is a FA? I feel like they might as well trade for him, rather than santana, cuz hes younger (i think...)

[October 21, 2007 2:06 PM]  |  link  |  reply
JJ said

Eric Bedard signed a one year free agent contract last season for 3.4 mil. with Baltimore. He's a free agent, from my understanding. He's 28, and could be a cheaper option than Santana... good thinking, Prez.

I think the Yankees still need a lefty in the bullpen too and Pittsburgh has one (can't remember the guy's name) that could be gotten for next to nothing.

[October 21, 2007 2:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
JJ said

OOPS... Brain fart. Meant to say Bedard avoided arbitration by signing a one year deal. Not sure if he's a UFA or FA, though.

[October 21, 2007 2:20 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian said

I think Bedard is arbitration elig. again this year. Marte is the lefty on the pirates, I believe.

[October 21, 2007 6:28 PM]  |  link  |  reply
JJ said

Yes, Marte is the guy....Good call, Brian... I couldn't remember his name earlier.

Lefties bat .094 vs. Marte, and he's got 18 BB vs. 51 SO and only surrendered 2 HR in 45 innings pitched. He's a good guy to have in the bullpen, and can probably be acquired for a fair price.

[October 23, 2007 10:10 AM]  |  link  |  reply
brandon said

Rowand would be awesome, and I would like to see Melky in RF, instead of Abreu. I still don't know they need him, though.

No way I trade for Santana. Wang puts up similar win numbers, and that's all that matters. I don't care about strike outs or ERA, unless we are talking about relief pitching.

The Yanks need to stay as young as possible.

[October 23, 2007 11:58 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian said

Given the Yankee offense, I think Santana would win many, many more games with the Yanks than he did with Minnesota.