 The Franchise Ends On A Good Note
Phil Hughes' final start of the season couldn't have possibly gone better. In what will undoubtedly be a wasted year for the kid, a season which saw him battered, injured and relegated to AAA, Hughes bounced back in a big way tonight. The season will end without a win from Hughes and Kennedy, but I'll be spending the Winter eagerly waiting to see what a healthy Hughes can do for this team in 2009.
Phil threw 100 pitches over 8 innings, allowing only 2 runs, 5 hits, striking out 6 and walking none. The Hughes I saw tonight reminded me of the guy who electrified the team last year with a no-hit bid, and dominated the Indians in the post season. I saw a kid who threw all four pitches in all kinds of counts and put batters away with a deadly curve. What I saw tonight leaves me excited for the future, which isn't a feeling I've had much this season. Unfortunately, Phil gave up a solo bomb which tied the game at 2 in the 7th and the Bombers wouldn't be able to reclaim the lead until Bobby Abreu hit a salami in the top of the 10th. The Yanks finally bested A.J. Burnett, even though he didn't factor in the decision and pitched very well. Maybe the key to Yankee success is sending their AAA lineup out there. A-Rod, Jeter and Damon all rode the pine tonight. Damon pinch-ran late, but didn't break a bat (those Nady bats are made of granite, apparently). I'm not sure if Girardi will sit the A team from here on out, I sure hope not. There are a lot of us fans out here who have stuck with this team, and while I'd love to see what Juan Miranda has, there's really no reason to take an extended look at Betemit. Jeter is probably hurt from that bean ball on Saturday, so if he isn't 100% go ahead and rest him. A-Rod and Damon should be in there, though. Tomorrow the Yanks face their other nemesis, Roy Halladay. Carl Pavano will take the hill in his final start of the season. I'm expecting a shut out, if not a no hitter out of Pavano. He is pitching for a contract, after all, and not for his team. Seems like the perfect set of circumstances for the stiff. Player of The Game: Hughes Team Record: 87-71 (16 games over!!!) Damon: Screw you Nady. I almost forgot, it's been widely publicized that Phil Hughes will pitch in the Arizona Fall league in an effort to build up his inning total heading into 2009. It makes perfect sense. Here's my question: Why isn't Joba doing the same? If the ultimate goal is to insert Joba at the top of the rotation, which I believe it should be, then isn't every inning he can pitch this season vital? Get him another 20 innings of work this fall and that's another 20 you can add to his workload in the regular season next year. 
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The Yankees have now matched their win total from 2000, when they won the World Series, and exceeded the Red Sox win total from 2006, a year before they won the World Series.
I know a lot of people, most notably Hank Steinbrenner, are probably panicking, but it was one down year that wasn't even THAT bad considering all the injuries. If they go 3-1 here on out they finish with 90 wins in possibly the toughest division ever since going to the 3-division format in 1994. That's not that bad...
Seriously? How many more wins do you think the Yankees finish with if Posada (career OPS .857) plays all year instead of Molina (career OPS .615, .584 this season). Using BP's VORP as an estimate, starting Molina ll year instead of Posada has cost the Yankees about 50 runs. Posada's average VORP over the last 5 years was about 47, and in 2008 Posada, Molina, Pudge, and Moeller combined for about a -3. Every 10 runs in run differential usually accounts for about 1 win. Thus, losing Posada's bat cost the Yankees about 5 wins, maybe more. Give the Yankees 5 more wins and they're only 1 game Boston at this moment. Obviously these are just estimates, but they seem like reasonable estimates to me
Plus, when you consider the loss of Wang (19 missed starts) and Ponson's 6.08 ERA in 15 appearances, you figure the Yankees could have finished in the high 90's with Posada and Wang healthy all year.
The Yankees aren't in dire straits. They don't need to panic. Hughes, Joba, and Wang are three good young pitchers. Kennedy may be able to figure it out (remember he's only 23), and they've got a ton of other arms in the minors. The offense should bounce back next year. I have faith in the 2009 Yankees.
I believe the Yanks will be better next year, but I think this late winning streak is kind of tainting the season in a positive way. They played some dismal baseball and only really turned it on when they were out of contention.
Does VORP incorporate defense into the equation? I'd love to know how many runs Molina saved w/ his defense. I doubt it's 50, but when you take his throwing into account that gap should narrow a little bit. He's also done an excellent job calling games. Speaking of which, I'd love to see them give Cervelli a full game behind the dish this week.
We're going to have to see what moves are made in the offseason, but right now I agree that there's no reason to have a bad feeling about 2009. Especially not after seeing the way Hughes pitched last night.
Nope, VORP is just offense. Posada's not very good defensively, so maybe Molina narrows the gap by a game (just a guess on my part). Either way, it's a big gap. Molina's bat is SO bad, it really hurt the offense.
I'm a little worried about them going after Sabathia. Milwaukee knows they're not keeping him, so he's throwing 130 pitches seemingly every game, throwing on three days rest, etc. Considering the extra weight he's carrying, I gotta think he's due for an injury, right? I don't know...maybe his body is strong enough to handle it, but Milwaukee's treating it like "Well, if he gets hurt it's not our problem". Because its not their problem, it's CC's and whoever signs him.
That said, I'd like to see Teixeira replace Giambi. He's a switch-hitter (always nice to have) and an excellent fielder.
Just looked at some more of BP's stats...their "Wins Above Replacement Player" (WARP) does take defense into account. Posada's 5-year average was 7.9. Yankee catchers this year combined for 4.0, which means that Posada's injury cost the Yankees an estimated 3.9 wins.
Jorge's shoulder really concerns me for next season. I really don't want to wind up with a Piazza on our hands. He better be able to throw at least league-average.
I agree. That really concerns me too. Wasn't Posada an infielder in the minors before they switced him to catcher? Maybe if the Yanks don't land Teixeira, they could mover Jorge to first? Then again, I believe he said he wanted to stay at catcher...
He played 2nd in the minors. He should be able to transition to first, but I'm not sure how good of a move that would be for the Yanks. As a catcher, he's a plus hitter. As a first baseman, not so much.