Let's assume Elton Brand really will be out for only a month. What will the team do without him? What should they do? What will this season look like when he comes back? After the jump we'll try our best to answer those questions.
First, let's look at the schedule:
- @ Washington
- Indiana
- @ Boston
- @ Denver
- @ Utah
- @ L.A. Clippers
- @ Dallas
- @ San Antonio
- Houston
- @ Milwaukee
- Charlotte
- @ Atlanta
- Portland
- San Antonio
- @ NY Knicks
15 games, 10 on the road, 10 against teams with .500 or better records. This Sixers team will be tested. Based on how they've played so far this year, you'd have to predict a 16-24 record when Brand returns, at best.
Personally, I don't think that's going to happen. I think they win their next two (@ Washington and vs. Indiana) then they find a way to win 2 games on the road trip (Clippers and someone else) then they win 3 or 4 more (NYK, Charlotte, MIL and Portland possibly). That would put their record at 19-21 or 18-22, and in the thick of the playoff race.
I truly believe this team will regain their swagger from the end of last season very quickly. There are three likely scenarios for the starting lineup:
Option A (my choice)- Dalembert, Speights, Thad, Iggy, Miller
Option B (second choice)- Dalembert, Thad, Iggy, Green, Miller
Option C (third choice, and most-likely, DiLeo's choice)- Dalembert, Speights, Iggy, Green, Miller
Any of those three options will make the Sixers an extremely dangerous team on the break, and an extremely inefficient team in the half-court. Again, just like last year. They're going from a team who everyone thought would be a top 4 team in the East to a team no one will take seriously. The chip will be back on the shoulder. Expect this team to exceed expectations over the next month.
In the long run, I'm not sure what this will mean for the team. If they stay within reach of the playoffs, there probably won't be a sell off. If they lose 10 of the next 12 games, it would be understandable for Ed Stefanski to start looking toward next season. Again, I don't believe that will be the case.
The real question is going to be what happens when he comes back. After a minimum of 15 games without EB in the lineup, this team should know a lot more about themselves. When he comes back, will we see the same problems we've seen to this point of the season? Will the running game be back in their blood to the point that Brand has no choice but to get on board?
I don't see how they're going to be able to spend practice time over the next month figuring out how to space the floor for a post player, so best-case scenario has to be they'll be right where they are right now in terms of half-court philosophy and execution. That's not a good thing.
The ultimate question remains, is the season over? My answer is no (although my hopeless optimism is wearing thin and could be shattered by a disastrous holiday road trip). Without Brand on the roster we're talking about basically the same team as last year with a few modifications. Instead of Jason Smith, we have Marreese Speights. Upgrade. Instead of Rodney Carney we have Kareem Rush. Probably a downgrade. Instead of Kevin Ollie we have Royal Ivey. Upgrade. Instead of Calvin Booth we have Theo Ratliff. Upgrade. Instead of Louis Amundson we have Donyell Marshall. Upgrade. We also have another year of experience for Lou Williams, Thad Young and Andre Iguodala.
As currently constructed, with or without Elton Brand, this team should make the playoffs. If we're talking about a roster that's able to make some noise once they get there, well, that's going to require Brand (and maybe even more). I believe this team will do just fine without him, the real loss from this injury will be the 30 days or so of missed games and lost practice time. They need all the time on the court together they can get to figure out how to make all the pieces fit.
Is Ben Gordon on the market? And if so what would it take to get him?
I don't see why not, although he's playing pretty good ball right now.
He's an unrestricted FA at the end of the season, and I would assume that the Bulls are looking for cap space more than anything.
Maybe Miller for Gordon + bad contract, if the Bulls don't think they have the guns to get to the playoffs this year.
Personally, if I was going to swing a deal with the Bulls I'd be trying to send them Sammy. They have nothing but garbage at PF and C. Sammy would be a huge upgrade for them. The only way I see them doing that, though, is if Hinrich is in the deal, not Gordon. And that assumes they want to move Hinrich, which I'm not sure they do.
Ben Gordon has to approve any trade - if Ben Gordon is traded for he loses bird rights - and right now the bulls might be regretting not giving him the long term deal because he's having a very good season. And as far as what you'd have to give up - they don't need cap room so much as they need a guy who can actually play center...and they can have sam.
I'm not sure the bulls have any real 'bad' contracts - and i don't want larry hughes on this team.
Not sure WHY Ben Gordon would accept a trade, even as a UFA this summer, if he takes the trade he can't maximize value due to his S&T possibilities...no reason for him to accept a move.
Actually, I think I've heard less grumbling than you'd usually expect considering the best player on the roster is out for at least a month. Everyone here seems to be pretty positive.
Mainly because they've been bashing Brand for weeks now and think 'now' the sixers can run and for some reason they couldn't run before - i still think there's a good chance evans starts tomorrow.
Do you listen to the Sports radio WIP610 in Negadelphia. they be tripping.
WIP is possibly one of the worst sports radio stations in the nation.
Gordon wouldn't lose his Bird Rights (link). I can't find anything that nullifies that statement.
As far as bad contracts for the Bulls, I'd think they're viewing Hinrich as a bad contract right now and they'd rather pay that money to Gordon. Nocioni is a horrible contract and Hughes' contract is only for one more year, but still atrocious.
Dalembert for Hinrich makes sense. If they decide they want Hinrich to play the 2 alongside Rose instead of Gordon then you could probably put a deal together for Gordon and Nocioni. Sammy and Willie Green would work, I believe. The Bulls would basically get their center and swap Nocioni's 5-year deal for Green's 3-year deal.
I still think Hinrich makes more sense.
I did a little digging on this, and there is something that says he gives up his Bird Rights. It isn't really explained as to why, though. He didn't change teams as a free agent. A player can sign 3 consecutive one-year deals with a team and he'd still earn his Bird Rights.
I swear you need a law degree to understand the CBA, and I seriously doubt if most executives fully comprehend the fine print.
It has to do with him taking the qualifying offer as a restricted free agent which as I understand it gives him a 'no trade clause' for the season, he can refuse a trade to anywhere, and if he agrees to a trade the team obtaining him will not have bird rights, it probably has something to do with avoiding some sort of back room collusion between two teams where they do a sign and trade without doing a sign and trade, if you know what I mean
Like your blog. I think you are on the money and this injury maybe a blessing in disguise. They will get use to running w/out EB, get him back in time to intergrate into lineup for the playoffs. I would had rather not seen Sammy D in the lineup all 3 (unless he plays like last Saturday night).
Check out this article, solid reason from a Philly sports writer. I couldn't agree more.
Thanks for creating a profile as well. If you click the "edit profile" link at the top right of any screen you can add an image too.
Did not think of that angle w/ Sammy. Wow! I have alot to learn. Agree 200% (is that possible). My biggest concern is that overall, we are a MUCH better team w/ Brand. If we were shooting 50%, we would have a great record! Thank you again!
Gordom is BYC as well fwiw. I haven't looked at the CBA stuff in long time. I guess he counts at like 6 million for the team getting him, but only 4 million for the bulls going out or something like that. Having said that... who wants to give Gordon 12 million per? I don't.
You know, I saw that BYC designation on ESPN's trade machine, but I didn't think it applied to restricted free agents who took the qualifying offer. If it's true, you're right, $6M going out, and whatever his salary was from last year or 50% of the $6 (whichever is higher) they can take back. +/- the 25% trade exception.
Not a big deal when the dif. is only $2M, you can make that work in a deal, usually.
I think this team wil be better off short term without brand. Long term...who knows...
If Speights turns into some beast at PF maybe brand is expendable. Sammy for Ben Gordon or Heinrich ? .. I absolutely would do that deal. Stefanski grossly underestimated our need for a shooter this off season...
I don't think he underestimated it, he just prioritized getting the PF/low post threat. Once that was done, he didn't have any money so he did the best he could in bringing in Donyell and Rush (both of whom haven't seen the light of day since DiLeo took over.)
You know Brian, I was wondering the same thing about Donyell and Rush. I thought that they would see some court time with DiLeo taking over being that he surely collaborated with Stefanski about signing them. It has been puzzling for them to not even sniff any minutes for the 2 games he's been coach.
The only reason I could come up with is that DiLeo wants to emphasize running off of pressure D. Neither Rush nor Donyell really fit into that.
Think of it as a three-step process for Dileo. 1st you get them back to what made them good last year (stops, turnovers, running off them). 2nd you get the low-post game down, most importantly how to space the floor in those sets. 3rd, you start working your shooters in to take advantage of the double teams and the spacing on the floor.
He didn't get the chance to get to steps #2 or #3, unfortunately.
Again, this is just a guess on my part, but it makes sense to me.
brian how do i improve mt profile,where is the link
You should see a link at the top right of the page that says "Not a member? Register." Click that and you can create an account. You can also click the "Sign In" link at the bottom right above the comment form.
Sound logic.
why do we go into grumpy mode,do you guys think that players start to grumble,when a player goes out,it's more playing time for the player that feels he needs minute.now marshall ,theo,rush can get more minutes.they made a run last year,and brand wasn't around,now iggy can play small forward
Actually, I think I've heard less grumbling than you'd usually expect considering the best player on the roster is out for at least a month. Everyone here seems to be pretty positive.
This website is pretty positive,i agree
Do you listen to the Sports radio WIP610 in Negadelphia.they be tripping. it's like the sky is falling.i just see people looking to Trade Brand already.this is why alot of players don't like to play in Philly,because the Phans are crazy. the the players block the negative katz,then the team can focus better.i use to live in Philly.that's why i had to move to Colorado.
If Brand was playing well and we had this record... the sky would be falling. With how he has played, Evans and Speights can almost entirely offset the loss IMO. Both shoot the same percentage, turn it over less(didn't check), and Evans is a better rebounder. You lose a little shot blocking and nothing else. Brand wasn't "creating open shots" or anything judging from how the season has been going.
Now, maybe Thad and Sammy can get back into their comfort zones that Brand's minutes at PF seem to have disrupted and we get to see more Speights, who is like 20 games into his NBA career and is already above average.
I agree Joe. Brand is good....not great. The team sucked with him...lets see how they do without him.
To me he has not been a dominant player in any facet of the game. Hopefully that will change down the road....if not we will be stuck in mediocrity for the next 5 years because we dont have money to sign anyone else and no one would want him with his contract.
Yeah I agree. I would revise your 2nd sentence to "Brand has has been good(at best)... not great."
I, personally, think Brand is a great NBA player. He isn't on the same level as Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, or Tim Duncan, but he is one of the best players at his position and belongs with Al Jefferson and Chris Bosh in my mind.
Down the road, I expect to see the real Brand and I hope he is a 50%+, 18+, 10+ player in about 35 minutes a night with reasonable turnovers, etc. Will it happen? I lose more faith by the day, but it is not gone.
I would also note that his contract is manageable even if he isn't amazing. He has #1 money maybe, but certainly not close to max money. Long story short, I think someone would give up an expiring contract for Brand next year, because Brand has shown consistently that he can pump up those sexy categories for big men in points, rebounds, and blocks.
Just a small reminder.
Elton Brand had a pretty major surgery and has not yet played even half a season (41) of full speed NBA games, and as much as you work out and rehab there's no substitute for full speed game play.
I think the timing is weird but I think people need to remember that it's still less than 41 games