With so many unknowns on the eve of the opener, I'm going to take a safer route in making my predictions now that I've witnessed the preseason in all its glory. After the jump, I'll take a look at the first 10 games and we'll go from there.
For the record, I predicted a 46-36 record for the season, and I'm sticking with that. Big picture, I'm expecting things to click for this team some time in mid-late November and I'm expecting a couple of serious runs and a much stronger finish than last season to wind up with 46 wins and the #4 seed.
Now that we have that out of the way, here are the first 10 games on the schedule, with my predictions.
@ Orlando, 10/28 - No Rashard Lewis, but Orlando is the type of team that the Sixers will have to be clicking on all cylinders to beat. I don't think they're there yet. (L)
Milwaukee, 10/30 - Expect Hakim Warrick to go off in the Charlie Villaneuva role. Expect a couple oohs-and-ahhs from Brandon Jennings. More than anything, expect a comfortable, double-digit win for the Sixers in their home opener in front of 10,000 adoring fans. (W)
@ New York, 10/31 - Luckily, the ass end of the first back-to-back of the season will come against the Knicks. A tired team will probably let the Knicks back in it in the second half due to sloppy play, but the Sixers hold on to go over .500 for the first time on the young season. (W)
Boston, 11/3 - A few days off and back home for a major challenge in the form of a bunch of old guys and Rajon Rondo. I'm looking forward to seeing Jrue Holiday guard Rondo. I'm not looking forward to seeing Rondo guarding Jrue. Don't think the Sixers will be up for this type of challenge this early in the year. (L)
New Jersey, 11/6 - The Sixers are a better team than the Nets, but they haven't shown it in head-to-head matchups. I'll give them the edge here mainly because they're playing at home. This is the swing game of the first 10, in my mind. (W)
@ Detroit, 11/8 - Detroit is lacking in so many ways. They don't have the defensive horses anymore, they don't have any kind of inside game at all. I'm counting this one as a win. (W)
Phoenix, 11/9 - This is the kiss of death, a back-to-back with the second game at home, against the newly reborn Suns and their seven seconds or less offense. Speights will go off, but I think the Sixers lose this one. (L)
@ New Jersey, 11/11 - I'm giving the Sixers a home-and-home split with the Nets in the early going, but it could go either way. (L)
Utah, 11/13 - Will Carlos Boozer playing for a payday be a good thing for the Jazz? I'm not sold. Still, they're a quality team, and the Sixers will struggle against quality teams until they figure things out. A close game, but a loss. (L)
@ Chicago, 11/14 - I'm not sure how worried Chicago fans should be about the loss of Ben Gordon. Gone is his ability to drop 40 on anyone, but also gone is a shooting guard who will allow someone else to drop 40 on any given night. I think it's going to take some time for them to figure things out without their go-to guy, though. I'm going with the Sixers because I think Iguodala is way too much for Salmons to handle, Thad will make Deng look older and slower than he actually is and the Sixers D should stifle the Bulls. (W)
Five games at home, five on the road. Three back-to-backs. Five against playoff teams from last season, five against lottery teams. Pretty even schedule to begin with.
Even though I'm probably too optimistic about the Sixers overall season record, I see a mediocre start, 5-5. I see the keys as the home game against the Nets and the two road games against the Pistons and the Bulls. I'll be happy with a 5-5 start, thrilled with anything better. 4-6 wouldn't leave me overly concerned, 3-7 would be a problem.
What do you guys think? Vote in the poll and leave your thoughts in the comments.
I predict a 6-4 start (too optimistic?) with wins at home vs. Milwaukee, NJ, Phoenix and on the road vs. NY, NJ and Chicago. It would be a good start with such a tough initial schedule.
The big question for the 1st half of the season is how many games they can win without a good half court offense and with a number of players in new positions. If their talent is enough to keep them near .500, it could bode well for a late season push.
Here is a more realistic or I think in my opinion how I see this team. Keep in mind there is such a fine line because if you turn around 4 or 5 games in a season you could be looking at a 50 win season. Maybe that is the optimist in my but if you think about last year when they were 40-35 late they were still comppting for the 4th seed. I also do believe Jordan is the right coach with the right systems for this team. With a healthy Brand, a dead eye shooter in Kapono,and others improving and a deeper bench this year, conventional wisdom says you can at least win 5 more games then last year ?
With EJ willing to deviate from the infancy of the new offense to basic sets, this could prove beneficial to the versatility this team can present to it's opponents. That being said, there will be a certain level of frustration throughout the course of games from the players concerning lack of execution of the new offense. So my take would be:
@ORL - W, They will provide payback of that forgettable egg in Game 6. Magic will die by the three in this one.
MIL - W, They have to take care of these teams if they want to make the playoffs.
@NY - L, Just feels like a proverbial let-down game and the legs will be tight from the game the night before.
BOS - L, They will be done in by the three-ball in this one (and Pierce always seems to catch a streaky fire against us).
NJ - L, Devin Harris and Lopez shine and Terrence Williams attempts to prove himself against the guy he patterned his game after (Dala).
@DET - L, The Palace has never been good to us, offense and their abundance of shooters, and our lack of, will be the difference here.
PHX - W, They will want to run which is the worst thing they could do against us. Will be similar to last year's blowout although not as substantial.
@NJ - W, The offense will start to show itself in this payback game from the earlier loss at home and esp the Harris faulty buzzer-beater from last year.
Utah - L, Same old, same old, they will get carved up by Sloan's movement offense in this one.
@CHI - L, Back-to-back on the road, Salmons will pick up Gordon's slack and Tyrus and Joakim will be to spry for Brand and Speights.
4-6 it is. And I predicted on another site earlier this offseason that the Sixers would finish 10th in the conference this year. Oh how I am hoping they fill up this empty plate with crow for me to gnaw on in April.
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I predict a 6-4 start (too optimistic?) with wins at home vs. Milwaukee, NJ, Phoenix and on the road vs. NY, NJ and Chicago. It would be a good start with such a tough initial schedule.
I'm not basing this opinion off of the pre-season, but I think they have a better chance at beating the Suns than the Nets.
They just don't match-up well against the Nets. I certainly hope I'm wrong, except beating the suns of course.
I guessed 4-6.
The big question for the 1st half of the season is how many games they can win without a good half court offense and with a number of players in new positions. If their talent is enough to keep them near .500, it could bode well for a late season push.
Here is a more realistic or I think in my opinion how I see this team. Keep in mind there is such a fine line because if you turn around 4 or 5 games in a season you could be looking at a 50 win season. Maybe that is the optimist in my but if you think about last year when they were 40-35 late they were still comppting for the 4th seed. I also do believe Jordan is the right coach with the right systems for this team. With a healthy Brand, a dead eye shooter in Kapono,and others improving and a deeper bench this year, conventional wisdom says you can at least win 5 more games then last year ?
http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2009/10/30-teams-30-days-16/
Rob, great find on that article. Well balanced and seems to be objective (love the part about Willie (Bill) Green).
I hope that they are atleast .500 after the first 10. IF they are atleast .500, I will consider that a great start.
With EJ willing to deviate from the infancy of the new offense to basic sets, this could prove beneficial to the versatility this team can present to it's opponents. That being said, there will be a certain level of frustration throughout the course of games from the players concerning lack of execution of the new offense. So my take would be:
@ORL - W, They will provide payback of that forgettable egg in Game 6. Magic will die by the three in this one.
MIL - W, They have to take care of these teams if they want to make the playoffs.
@NY - L, Just feels like a proverbial let-down game and the legs will be tight from the game the night before.
BOS - L, They will be done in by the three-ball in this one (and Pierce always seems to catch a streaky fire against us).
NJ - L, Devin Harris and Lopez shine and Terrence Williams attempts to prove himself against the guy he patterned his game after (Dala).
@DET - L, The Palace has never been good to us, offense and their abundance of shooters, and our lack of, will be the difference here.
PHX - W, They will want to run which is the worst thing they could do against us. Will be similar to last year's blowout although not as substantial.
@NJ - W, The offense will start to show itself in this payback game from the earlier loss at home and esp the Harris faulty buzzer-beater from last year.
Utah - L, Same old, same old, they will get carved up by Sloan's movement offense in this one.
@CHI - L, Back-to-back on the road, Salmons will pick up Gordon's slack and Tyrus and Joakim will be to spry for Brand and Speights.
4-6 it is. And I predicted on another site earlier this offseason that the Sixers would finish 10th in the conference this year. Oh how I am hoping they fill up this empty plate with crow for me to gnaw on in April.
Tomorrow night, baby!
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