Number three on my list (but probably not yours) is Ohio State SG/SF/PG, Evan Turner. Check out the entire
9 players, 9 days series here. More on Turner after the jump.
Age: 22 (in late October)
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 205 lbs.
I've officially written this post three times, and if I had another day or two, I'd probably flip flop again...and again. Let me start with what Turner gives you, short and long term, then I'll explain why he's #3 (right now) instead of #2.
If the Sixers are lucky enough to land Evan Turner, he immediately becomes a 35+ minute starter at the two guard. He probably scores 20+ points/game, he probably gives the Sixers an unbelievable defensive trio on the perimeter in Jrue, Turner and Iguodala. He's got the size, he's got the scorer's mentality. He's a plus, plus rebounder. He can hand out assists. Pencil him in and you're talking playoffs this season.
Long term, Turner is a potential #1 option on offense. He makes the Sixers better in the half court immediately. He's a guy who can get his own shot, and make it. He's more than a building block, he's got the chance to be the centerpiece. If he reaches his potential quickly, he allows you to trade Iguodala. You may not have to trade him, but if a deal arises, you have a guy who can do some of the same things on your roster, on a rookie contract. Positional versatility on both ends of the floor, primary scorer duties, excellent size. Turner gives you all of that. He's got superstar written all over him.
Why number three, then? Well, like I said, this was an extremely difficult decision for me. I think all of the top three guys have superstar potential, top four really. Three things worry me about Turner, and I'm not sure how major any of them are, but they are concerns.
- Long-range shooting - I spent some time thinking about the premiere perimeter players in the league, and really the only one who doesn't hurt you from three-point range is Dwyane Wade. James and Kobe aren't great three-point shooters, but they can hit that shot. Michael Jordan wasn't deadly from three early in his career, but it was a different game back then and he had something in common with Wade, supreme athleticism. Turner doesn't have that. His offensive game is built on the in between stuff. Drives for pull ups. Mid-range jumpers. He's deadly effective on those plays, but I'm just not 100% confident it translates against the better wing defenders in the NBA. He could absolutely extend his range on the next level, but if he doesn't, well, then we're in the same boat we're in with Iguodala. If you don't put a couple of really good shooters on the floor with him, the lane closes down and it becomes easy to double him and get the ball out of his hands. Also, long term if he doesn't develop into a weapon from three, you pretty much have to trade Iguodala.
- Turnovers - This is a small concern, since he was playing out of position with limited talent around him last season, but you can't completely ignore 4.4 turnovers/game and a 1.35 assist/turnover ratio.
- Broken back - I know he didn't miss a ton of time. I know he came back and played unbelievably well. I know he was still the best player in college basketball, but the guy broke his friggin' back less than a year ago. That has to be a concern on some level, doesn't it? I mean, somewhere in the back of someone's mind you have to think back to "Yeah, well Elton Brand tore his achilles, but he was able to return. He must be fine now."
Anyway, like I said, even with those three things nagging on my mind, I'm still completely torn here. As of tonight, though, Turner is number three (or maybe 2B, I don't know).
9. Ed Davis
8. Cole Aldrich
7. Ekpe Udoh
6. Al-Farouq Aminu
5. Wesley Johnson
4. DeMarcus Cousins
3. Evan Turner
2. Coming tomorrow.
Thoughts in the comments, as usual.
1) Lebron is a career 33% three point shooter. It's safe to say that he doesn't hurt you from 3.
2) Since when is a 1.35 assist/turnover ratio out of the ordinary for a shooting guard?
Please see your second two paragraphs for why Turner should be the #2 pick. It's pretty much universally accepted that you take the best player available when it's your turn to draft, and there is absolutely no way that Favors is better than Turner right now, and he doesn't even have a higher ceiling in the future.
I disagree. LeBron absolutely does hurt his team from 3. Shot selection is a big part of what makes a good three point shooter. LeBron tends to settle for too many off balanced, hand in his face, deep three's. In the tournament this year I think we saw Turner shoot three's when they were the smart shot and when he had to. If his shot selection is smart he'll hit a decent percentage and command defensive respect for his outside shot.
I meant LeBron doesn't hurt other teams from three. Brian said that Wade is the only superstar that doesn't hurt other teams from three. I was saying that LeBron should also be in that category. You and I are in agreement.
2) Since when is a 1.35 assist/turnover ratio out of the ordinary for a shooting guard?
Uh, since forever. That's the equivalent of Iguodala averaging 4.3 turnovers/game this past season. (Stupid) people complain about Iguodala's 2.15 assist/turnover ratio.
And if you want to throw LBJ into the can't shoot threes camp, that's fine. He's another super-elite athlete. Like Wade, Jordan, Kobe and every other superstar wing who wasn't a threat from deep.
I am a big Favors fan, and have said I would think of taking him at #1 one but I think I know your reasoning for moving Turner to #3, the feeling he and Iggy can!t coexist. His back does bother me also but nobody seems to mention it as an issue and as far as his 3pt. shooting, it may improve or if it doesn!t than he is good enough to make the organization attempt to address adding a shooter at the 4 or 5 spot to go along with Jrue. Maybe a Spieghts for Ryan Anderson type trade or sign a M.Bonner type to a contract and use him 20 minutes a night.
i have a friend at Ohio State who watched all the home games and he said(maybe someone with Synergy can look into this) that every time Turner was facing an athletic wing defender he got shut down. Which concerns me that maybe his game doesn't translate well into the pros.
Fan version of synergy doesn't include basketball, so that probably narrows down the list of people who can check that to me. I'll go back and watch when I can, but that probably won't be this week. With the lottery and combine, along with the requisite travel, I'm swamped.
That being said, just going off recollection, he didn't get shut down very much this year, so on the surface I don't buy that statement. Not counting the game he got injured and his first game back, he was held to single digits all of once last year. That consistency is pretty incredible.
Just from looking at his game logs, he really only had one or two inefficient scoring games (one FG per point). He did have a couple of triple-doubles, and not the good kind, though. Vs. UNC early on he had 10 turnovers. Same vs. Illinois later in the year.
He actually had three pretty bad games vs. Illinois. Anyone know who was guarding him there?
Does it worry you at all that Turner only got really good as a junior? It's not like he projected to be a top-3 pick before this past season started. To me, I wonder if that speaks to just how shitty college basketball really is.
Like, yeah, Turner kicked ass last season, probably the best player in the country. But shouldn't we factor in that any decent player in his class already bolted for the NBA? Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, OJ Mayo, Eric Gordon, your boy Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, ect. If those guys are still playing college basketball as juniors, does Turner stand out? Sure, not everyone develops at the same pace. But, come on, it would be hard to convince me that college hoops isn't really bad.
Any good player is a freshman, only there for one year because of the stupid age rule. And even though the freshman are supremely talented, it's still going to be hard to adjust jumping a level no matter how good you are. So Turner stands out, because he's a good player, but also maybe because he's the only good player left. If he bolted after his freshman/sophomore year, like all the other good players his age (from his high school graduating class), I doubt he even would have been chosen in the first round.
I don't know if this makes any sense. Does it?
You are asking questions, what you need to do when looking for a player. I would put it this way though: Do you think John Wall is going to be better than guys like Beasley, Gordon, Love, etc? I don't think it would be going too far to say that he most likely is going to be better AND Turner was the runaway college Player of the Year by the end. College 'one and dones' do get replenished and that class two years ago is something we may never see again.
Yeah, college basketball is pretty shitty too. I like to watch the local teams and big rivalries and possible draft picks (I liked Kansas) but there's no way I'm automatically watching a Big Ten game on Tuesday for the hell of it. Watch Big East Basketball, I think that's usually the closest to pro hoops year in and year out.
As for Turner, he's a pretty safe pick to be good. He was excellent as a sophomore too. I think if the Sixers got the 2nd pick, his position would already be solid as a good 2nd pick. It would be up to Favors and (less so) Cousins to jump him, which they should be given every opportunity to do. If only his three point stroke was better. He has an awkward release, but he did shoot 44 percent from deep as a sophomore. So who knows?
"Does it worry you at all that Turner only got really good as a junior? It's not like he projected to be a top-3 pick before this past season started. To me, I wonder if that speaks to just how shitty college basketball really is."
He was considered a potential top 10 pick last year. He averaged 17/7/4 as a sophomore. Perhaps we have different standards, but to me he was really good as a sophomore as well.
By this argument, Michael Jordan wasn't a good prospect because he only averaged 19/5/2 as a junior.
Not all players are on the same development cycle. I hate this aspect of player evaluation.
I'm not sure how much weight to put on extra years in college, but there should definitely be some. You've also got a couple guys on my list who transferred and turned into different players after sitting out a season (Udoh and Wesley Johnson).
In some respects, Turner's numbers were better as a sophomore. His numbers weren't very good at all as a freshman. Who knows, maybe the development will give him a leg up coming into the league, or maybe he's pretty close to his ceiling now. Either way, I think he's got a pretty good shot at being very, very good in the pros. I'm not saying I doubt that he'll be a star, I'm just saying it's a tough call for me between #2 and #3, and right now, he's #3 on my list.
Link to this week's Sunday column on the Sixers/lottery:
http://www.phillyburbs.com/news/news_details/article/334/2010/may/16/lottery-could-give-sixers-a-boost-2.html
Bron would be smart to go to Chicago in a sign and trade for Deng. Then they could sign Bosh too.
That would be insane. Also fun to watch.
In other news, the sixth spot would be fine if Johnson or Cousins fell to us. But if those two guys were there and we took Aldrich I would stop liking the Sixers. I'm nary excited about Doug Collins being our new coach.
Like someone said before, if Stefanski could pull some flim flam and get Cousins/Johnson, or Favors/Cousins, something silly like that by moving Iguodala I'd plotz.
Without a S&T Lebron is leaving about 30 million bucks on the table...
People are saying we have the #6 pick in a 5 player draft, what if we end up at #7?
I don't even wanna think about that. :(
Look to trade down(maybe the TWOLVES? They may want Aldrich?). Get the 12 and another of their 1st rounders. Pick a big and a shooter.
Van Gundy, after today!s loss praised Boston!s defense and the fact they basically played straight up man on man; I hope against hope our team gives Thibodeax a shot or explains why he didn!t get considered to us when all is said and done.
Well if they make a hire before the end of the playoffs (or the celtics run) - that could be why.
I know it's all 'hush hush' and everything but there's a reason thibodeau doesn't have a job yet - he didn't impress the sixers enough last year...
Do teams tend to explain to their fans why they interviewed who they did (or didn't) interview? I don't see them placating you...
It!s just wishful thinking on my part, John, but after we get our top 3 pick Tuesday our prospects may improve.
Not that much - not immediately - no