This isn't quite a mid term. Atlanta is a solid playoff team, but their missing their
best player. So consider this game as just a pop quiz for the Sixers. They've beaten two playoff teams from last season in their previous six games. They've been playing much better basketball over the past three. Can they keep the momentum going in Atlanta tonight?
Way back in the
second game of the season, the Sixers nearly shocked the world with an upset at home against Atlanta. Josh Smith hit a miracle three with 47 seconds left in the game to permanently put the brakes on a furious comeback by the Sixers. Iguodala scored 27 and handed out 10 assists, Lou went to the line 13 times and Brand scored an efficient 20.
Since then, Atlanta has gone 10-5, and they're currently riding a four-game win streak. They're winning on the offensive end of the floor (4th in the league in offensive efficiency), their defense is slightly below average (16th at 107.4 DFR). They play a painfully slow pace (90.6 possessions/48 minutes, 26th in the league). Your first indicator tonight may be the pace of the game. The Sixers are middle-of-the-pack at 92.8. They're also inching their way back into the top ten in defensive efficiency, tonight's game could either push them back to the middle, or elevate them into elite company.
If this team is truly going to make a push for the playoffs, they're going to have to show some consistency over a long stretch, and they're going to have to win some of the games they probably shouldn't. Tonight is a prime example.
Even without Joe Johnson, Atlanta poses some serious problems. Al Horford and Josh Smith out-class the Sixers front court in nearly every imaginable way. I expect Smith to be guarding Hawes, which means he'll be roaming free on the defensive end, looking to help and block shots. Brand should be able to work against Horford, it's the bigger defenders that give him problems, not the shorter, bulkier ones. On the other end of the floor, though, Smith and Horford will probably have their way with the Sixers. Horford scored 20 points on only 11 shots the first time these teams met, and it should've been much worse than that. The Sixers showed no signs of even being able to slow him down. If Atlanta focuses on that mismatch, the Sixers will have to double him to get the ball out of his hands. Brand has the best shot at guarding him, but he can't do it on his own and Hawes/Speights on Smith is a gross mismatch.
The good news is that the Sixers have a decided advantage on the perimeter, no matter who starts among Turner/Nocioni. If Turner is in the starting lineup, he's going to have Jamal Crawford on him. That's a huge mismatch, and hopefully one the rookie will be willing to take advantage of. If Nocioni is in the starting lineup, expect Iguodala to work out of the post with Crawford on him. Nocioni and Marvin Williams probably cancel each other out, in that case. Most importantly, though, Mike Bibby couldn't keep me in front of him at this point of his career, and Jrue is not the same player he was in the beginning of the season.
Jrue should be able to live in the lane tonight, and when he can penetrate, it opens up everything on the offensive end for the Sixers. If they want to shift Jrue off the ball, Bibby has no chance against him in the post. The perimeter guys must be the focus of the offense, and the Sixers absolutely have to punish the mismatches out there if they're going to have any chance in this game.
Prediction: Sixers 98, Atlanta 94 (first close win of the season)
Keep an eye on: Atlanta's defense. If they punish Bibby with penetration, which they should, Atlanta could fall back into a zone for long stretches. How will the Sixers perform against the zone? Also, Lou victimized Jeff Teague with his shot fakes on the perimeter the first time around, let's see if he can go back to that well.
The tip is at 7:30, game thread will be up at 6pm.
I don't like the Hawks at all and as i said the past game i fully expect them to get beck to mediocrity this season. Don't let their 12-7 record fool you, they are not a very good team. The haven't had a single good so far, with the opening night win at Memphis as their best win of the season.
Johnson, while horribly overpaid is still a very good player and his absence will hurt them.
I expect Horford (whom i really like and think he is the best player on that Hawks teams albeit playing out of position) to torch our front line again, but i think Brian is right and we are ready for the first close win of the season. It's about time luck turned the corner...
I'm just going to leave this here.
Al Horford is playing the best basketball of any big in the NBA possibly. That is all I fear from the Hawks.
How do you guard him? Has to be Brand, right?
Horford won't have a size advantage on Brand so i guess he has to be the one. I think we will see a lot of small ball today with Brand at C and Young at PF guarding Smith...
Has to be Brand. Brand can't handle him, though.
I do think Brand can score on him on the other end, though. That should be a fun matchup.
That's not far off from the truth IMO. The Hawks got a hge bargain with his extension. If i am not mistaken he leads all big men in the league in WS/48 and PER.
Taking Horford out of the equation, who has the better roster? My point being, if we stay pat and find a Horford type in one of the next 2 drafts, do we reach Atlanta's level?
We will be better than ATL if we can find a Horford type IMO...
Are people just ignoring Josh Smith's existence?
I'd say Brand + Iguodala > Josh Smith + Marvin Williams.
Well i know i'm gonna be heavily bashed for this but i think Smith is overrated.... Yes he can fill the stat sheet, but nothing in his flashy game screams a serious contributor to a contender to me... He is not enough of a difference maker...
Kevin Love and Michael Beasleys stats are hollow too then?
Iguodala maybe?
Josh Smith is a better player than any options at the 4 or 5 the sixers have
Joe Johnson while grossly over paid is very good at one thing that the sixers have NO ONE very good at
The hawks and sixers aren't 'one player away' from being similar rosters.
Andre Iguodala is a better player than anyone the Hawks have at the three.
Jrue Holiday is very good at several things the Hawks have NO ONE very good at.
Give the Sixers a five at Horford's level and I don't have a problem saying they could be at Atlanta's level, assuming Turner doesn't wind up being Marvin Williams, or worse.
Who would you rather have, Iggy or Josh?
Iguodala. True positional defense is better than steals and blocks...
And of course, Iguodala is a better offensive player than Smith...
They seem very similar to me, both jack of all trades but at different spots; if Smith moved to s.f. and Horford to p.f. they would be awesome but this coach seems to like what Woodson liked, after all is M.Williams that much better than Pachulia?
just to back my claim up.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=smithjo03&y1=2011&p2=iguodan01&y2=2011
Iguodala has dealt with injuries and his stats are down across the board this season and he is still better than Smith. He is better in virtually every single advanced stat category except for rebounding.
Love is better than Smith, and the jury is still out on Beasley.
And i fully agree with Johnson being pretty good at something that we don't have at all.
But Holiday, Iguodala and Brand aren't garbage either, don't you think. The way i see it, we have 2 weak links at the SG and C position. They have too weak links too at the SF and SF position. If we can feel the C spot with a Horford type and put a role player in the Aflalo mold at the SG spot (i think Meeks can be that for our team) we will surely be better than the current Hawks.
I think John's point is they have a go to scorer and I hope like heck we do to [Turner] otherwise we ARE two players away from them.
go-to scorer and turner..that has to be an oxymoron
I am hoping all the scouts and G.M.'s were correct, and crossing my fingers as I say that. :)
i'm crossin my fingers and all toes too ;)
The way i see it a combination of a Horford type, Brand, Iguodala and Holiday gives able guy for every possession.
Don't get me wrong we won't be as good as the Hawks offensively, but we can be much much better defensively, enough to be a better team...
Johnson hasn't looked like much of a go-to scorer in the playoffs these past couple of seasons.
Smith isn't chopped liver. He isn't Al Horford either. It is like Kobe... he isn't chopped liver, but he isn't Pau Gasol.
Watching this years version of Elton, he seems to run the floor and give us a low post threat and fit this team as much as Smith would, primarily because his jumper seems better.
That's a big if, and it depends on what you mean by standing pat. Do we extend Thad this summer or does he walk? Same question about Speights next summer.
If that's the plan, it's going to largely depend on Turner, probably.
Holiday > Bibby
Turner < Joe Johnson
Iguodala > > Marvin Williams
Brand < Josh Smith
New version of Horford < Horford
Lou and Jamal Crawford are probably a wash, Speights/Thad are probably better than the rest of their bench.
It would take a pretty serious progression from Jrue and Turner, I think.
My hope is that Turner, some day, can be mentioned in the same breath as J.Johnson.
Can we pay Thad and Lou combined less than what Crawford makes now and is that good value in the new cba ?
No and Yes. No i don't think we'll get Thad that cheap, and yes it will be good value if we can pull it off.
Two things I don't understand about Horford:
1) Why does he only play 32 minutes/game
2) Why does he take so few shots?
One answer: The coach is an EFJ clone and thinks they are better of giving the shots to Johnson and Crawford following the why go to the post when you can shoot a long range jumper philosophy...
It is tough to change a players personality and Horford, as much as any current player reminds me of the older p.f.'s like Oakley, Thorpe, etc. , guys that do the dirty work and are oppurtunistic scorers at best.
1) Last year he played 35. I think it is a coaching thing. Not necessarily a bad thing to limit your best player's minutes.
2) Does it matter? He is socring as much as Gasol does.
Makes sense, I guess, but the Hawks are kind of garbage with him on the bench and I don't see why he wouldn't be able to keep his production up with more minutes.
Only weakness I see is he doesn't get to the line enough.
OT, what would you say the odds are that we see a trade going down by 2 weeks from now (after 12/15)?
40%?
80% between 12/15 and the trade deadline... I guess Iguodala is the safest choice, but it might be someone else too...
I'm curious, what are the oncoming dates that spur trades. Obviously there's the trading deadline, but what other dates are there that matter?
On December 15th, most guys who signed contracts this summer can be included in deals (though some of them, like Troy Murphy, could have been moved at any point).
Trades are difficult to make, but trades can be made!
If Lou has value 50% but I hope it isn't Iggy.
Can the Sixers acquire something similiar after Christmas?
http://www.theonion.com/articles/raptors-bolster-front-court-with-8foottall-christm,18577/?utm_medium=promobar&utm_campaign=recirculation