The Sixers' 101-75 win over the Pacers on Wednesday night was much needed for both team and fan morale. I know I felt better about the team, and I was motivated to find out who contributed most to the good offensive and excellent defensive performance (101 points in 94 possessions on offense, 75 points allowed in 95 possessions on defense), using the Differential Production metric that I've developed.
A basic summary of the Differential Production (DP) statistic can be found
here. The key point to remember is that positive and negative values are relative to 1 point per possession. Generally, a team's Offensive DP (ODP) must be greater than its Defensive DP (DDP) for the team to win.
Here are the DP stats for the Sixers-Pacers game on 10/3:
tables
|
OFFENSE |
|
Made
Shots |
Missed
Shots |
Off
Reb |
Asst |
TO |
Off
Tot |
| Iguodala |
4.5 |
-5 |
0.5 |
2.75 |
0 |
2.75 |
| Brand |
11.5 |
-5.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0 |
10 |
| Hawes |
3.25 |
-3 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
-0.75 |
| Holiday |
5.5 |
-4 |
0 |
2.5 |
-1 |
3 |
| Kapono |
0 |
-2.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-2.5 |
| Turner |
4.5 |
-2.5 |
0 |
0.75 |
-3 |
-0.25 |
| Young |
7.25 |
-6 |
1 |
0 |
-1 |
1.25 |
| Williams |
6 |
-3.5 |
0 |
1.25 |
-2 |
1.75 |
| Speights |
0.5 |
-4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-2 |
-4.5 |
| Nocioni |
1.75 |
-4.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-2.75 |
| Team |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
| Totals |
44.75 |
-40.5 |
4.5 |
9.25 |
-11 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(101/94) |
tables
|
DEFENSE |
TOT |
|
Scored
On |
Stops |
Def
Reb |
ORA |
TO
Forced |
Def
Tot |
| AI |
-5.75 |
3.5 |
4 |
0 |
2.5 |
4.25 |
7 |
| EB |
-8.5 |
2 |
3.5 |
-1.5 |
2 |
-2.5 |
7.5 |
| SH |
-5.75 |
3 |
2 |
-1.25 |
0 |
-2 |
-2.75 |
| JH |
-2 |
3.75 |
2 |
-0.5 |
3.5 |
6.75 |
9.75 |
| JK |
-4 |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
1 |
-2.5 |
-5 |
| ET |
-3 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.25 |
| TY |
-8 |
4.5 |
1.75 |
-2 |
0.5 |
-3.25 |
-2 |
| LW |
-4 |
2.25 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
-1.25 |
0.5 |
| MS |
-2 |
3.5 |
5.25 |
-0.5 |
0 |
6.25 |
1.75 |
| AN |
0 |
1 |
1 |
-0.25 |
0 |
1.75 |
-1 |
| TM |
-1 |
9 |
1.5 |
-1.5 |
2 |
10 |
9 |
| Tot |
-44 |
34.5 |
24.5 |
-7 |
13 |
20 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(75/95) |
|
Some interesting observations follow from these stats:
- Elton Brand was the star of the game using conventional stats: 25 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, 2 blocks, 0 turnovers. In ODP he was far and away the best Sixer (+10, second highest was Jrue's +3). But the big surprise for me in compiling these stats was that Brand did not have the highest DP number: he allowed a lot of baskets and gave up a few offensive rebounds, and he was a net negative on defense, so his overall DP was +7.5 (still very good).
- Best DP of the game was Jrue's +9.75. He made more shots than he missed and picked up 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals with 0 turnovers, so his boxscore stats were good. But amazingly, his "Scored On" column was only -2 (two early Collison baskets were it the whole game), and his "Stops" column was higher (+3.75). [This is all the more impressive because the best a defender can do for a "Stop" is +0.5, while a basket allowed is at least -1 for the defender.] Together with the turnovers forced, Jrue's DDP was an excellent +6.75 and his overall DP was a team-high +9.75.
- Another big surprise: second best defensive DP belonged to Speights at +6.25. Speights picked up a ton of defensive rebounds and was also credited with several stops (being at least in the neighborhood on many missed shot attempts). Too bad his offense was so poor this game (-4.5 ODP).
- Iguodala had a good defensive number (+4.25) but was scored on a few times. His "Stops" were more spectacular than Jrue's (4 blocks), but Jrue actually had a better Stop-to-Scored On ratio. Still, Iguodala was one of only two Sixers (with Jrue) who were net positives on both offense and defense.
- Thad led the team in "Stops" (+4.5) but was also second-worst to Brand in "Scored On" (-8), and he also gave up 4 offensive rebounds. His numbers are reflective of the commentary about him, some positive, some negative.
- The fact that "Team" gets credit for "Stops" of +9 means that Indiana missed a lot of open shots and free throws. (Granger and Dunleavy, in particular, missed several open jumpers.) +2 for "Team" in Turnovers Forced means that there were some unforced turnovers too. So part of the Sixers' blowout win could be attributed to the Pacers playing poorly.
- Finally, what more can be said about Kapono? 12 minutes, team worst -5 DP.
As before, I've sent the full spreadsheet with breakdowns by quarter and half to Brian, so those interested in the details can
download it here.
Good win; hopefully there will be more games like this!
"Finally, what more can be said about Kapono? 12 minutes, team worst -5 DP."
I see this and still wonder why Meeks isn't allowed to play.
Great job, Statman.
You see the potential value in this system right here, there's no way Jrue's defense would've been isolated with any other available stat. From the box score, his line looks decent, but that's just a dominant game when you look at the entire picture.
I agree with korman I think meeks should get a look at over kapono. I believe we will give the cavs hell I smell a streak coming.
Good analysis. If Speights could hit a few shots (usually his strong suit) he could grab that starting center job from Hawes. And like Brian said, he's probably our only big who can consistently finish over people when he gets dump-offs in the lane or alley-oops which would help our playmakers on the perimeter get more assists.
I really like the insights from these stats, Statman. Gives a different perspective of the game. things that are easy to overlook during the game itself.
Ideally for me we'll start Holiday/Turner/Iggy/Brand/Speights by the midway point of the season. Assuming Speights works hard rebounding and trying to play defense. Until then my preferred starting 5 would be Jrue/Turner/Iggy/Brand/Battie.
I could live with Battie as starter, if he was basically playing the same minutes Hawes is right now, maybe a little bit less. I don't think having him on the floor for more than that is really a good idea.
I agree on Battie it's just wishful thinking that it will show the team what a difference it could make if the bigs show the effort required on the defensive end. But I've more or less given up on Speights ever trying half as hard as he should on defense, sadly. And it may be quite premature considering it's been merely five games but I think Hawes is the worst Sixers starter since I've been a fan.
I hope Speights gets it together but I'm not sure he will
+1
The move to make now, to me, is move Iggy to the 3, start Turner and swap Kapono and Meeks. It balances the roster, lets J.T.I. learn together and lets another young asset [Meeks] get minutes.
I leave Hawes where he is, he has played better lately and Spieghts can't be given anything, he has to earn it.In spite of his lack of quickness Hawes seems to help the offense with his screening and movement. The ball still stops with Marreese and that aspect has to get better.
I have to agree. I think Turner has played pretty well... He's no John Wall right now, but he's our best option at the 2 spot.. The guy is averaging 5.6 rebounds in 26 minutes from the 1-2-&3 spots... Kapono has not shown anything, and i'd much rather see what a younger Meeks can go.
can do*
I don't know who you are or when you started posting, but that is the best name/picture ever.
"I leave Hawes where he is, he has played better lately and Spieghts can't be given anything, he has to earn it.In spite of his lack of quickness Hawes seems to help the offense with his screening and movement. The ball still stops with Marreese and that aspect has to get better."
Two things bother me about this paragraph. #1: Why doesn't Hawes need to earn it? #2: The offense has been beyond dreadful with Hawes on the floor. Unfortunately, it's been even worse with Speights, believe it or not. I don't think either guy is the answer right now.
Sam Dalembert has been named the starting center in Sacto. DeMarcus Cousins to the bench, which should go over really well with him.
This means, I believe, that John Wall is the only first-round draft pick currently starting for his team (Bledsoe started the Clips last game due to a Baron Davis injury).
haha thanks man..It's my fantasy basketball team name and logo.. I just recently started posting on here. I've been reading depressedfan for awhile now so I figured it was time to contribute in the discussions.... After all, this is the by far the best Sixers blog site out there..
Thanks, Statman, for compiling this. I really like your metric. I've always thought of it as a means of showing how much more valuable players like Jrue and Dre are than Lou and Speights. But I've forgotten how drawing fouls and getting to the line are handled and the explanatory link isn't working. Could you or Brian please fix the link?
Bob, the link is fixed. Thanks,
brian
Thanks for the compliment; the link should be fixed now.
On offense, two foul shots becomes either +1 for both free throws made, or 0 (+0.5 under Made Shots and -0.5 under Missed Shots) for one free throw made, or -1 for both free throws missed. The positive point total can be divided if a great pass resulted in the two free throws (Iguodala and Jrue both got credit for this type of "assist" in the last game).
On defense, the defender gets docked -1 or -2 right away (depending on whether it's 2 or 3 free throws). When opposing player misses a free throw, "Team" gets credited +0.5 for a "Stop." The rebound goes to "Team" for +0.5 for any free throw that isn't the last. A rebound on the last free throw is worth +0.5 (or -0.5) to whoever gets it (or gives it up).
Sometimes it's smart to take a foul, but this scoring system always assumes it isn't. In a sense, whether an opposing player misses a free throw has nothing to do with defense any more (so the Stop can only be credited to "Team"). Let me know if this makes sense.
How do you handle a three-shot foul for the offensive player? Shooting 1/3 would be a 0, 2/3 would be +1, 3/3 would be +2 and 0/3 would be -1?
Hmmm, this got me to thinking, because the whole +0.5/-0.5 thing doesn't work for 3 foul shots (or an and-one). I think the best way would be to change the offensive scoring so that it matches the defensive scoring: whenever a player gets fouled, he gets full credit for the number of free throws (+1 for 2 free throws, +2 for 3 free throws), then gets a -1 for however many free throws missed. This way, the math works out. Unfortunately, this makes free throws score differently than field goals, so made and missed FTs may need separate columns. [I'll sort this out before I have you attempt it.]
Thanks to both for the clarifications. I prefer this revised method of handling free throws because I tend to think of your system as expecting 1 point per possession and basing the +/- off of that.
What I'm most curious about is how you allot responsibility for field goals allowed in pick and roll and doubling situations. Is it based on a team's defensive scheme? Knowing who is supposed to rotate and cover a man in a given situation?