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Anatomy of a Blowout

turner.jpgThe Sixers' 101-75 win over the Pacers on Wednesday night was much needed for both team and fan morale.  I know I felt better about the team, and I was motivated to find out who contributed most to the good offensive and excellent defensive performance (101 points in 94 possessions on offense, 75 points allowed in 95 possessions on defense), using the Differential Production metric that I've developed.

A basic summary of the Differential Production (DP) statistic can be found here.  The key point to remember is that positive and negative values are relative to 1 point per possession.  Generally, a team's Offensive DP (ODP) must be greater than its Defensive DP (DDP) for the team to win.

Here are the DP stats for the Sixers-Pacers game on 10/3:

tables
OFFENSE
Made
Shots
Missed
Shots
Off
Reb
Asst TO Off
Tot
Iguodala 4.5 -5 0.5 2.75 0 2.75
Brand 11.5 -5.5 2.5 1.5 0 10
Hawes 3.25 -3 0 0 -1 -0.75
Holiday 5.5 -4 0 2.5 -1 3
Kapono 0 -2.5 0 0 0 -2.5
Turner 4.5 -2.5 0 0.75 -3 -0.25
Young 7.25 -6 1 0 -1 1.25
Williams 6 -3.5 0 1.25 -2 1.75
Speights 0.5 -4 0.5 0.5 -2 -4.5
Nocioni 1.75 -4.5 0 0 0 -2.75
Team 0 0 0 0 -1 -1
Totals 44.75 -40.5 4.5 9.25 -11 7
(101/94)


tables
DEFENSE TOT
Scored
On
Stops Def
Reb
ORA TO
Forced
Def
Tot
AI -5.75 3.5 4 0 2.5 4.25 7
EB -8.5 2 3.5 -1.5 2 -2.5 7.5
SH -5.75 3 2 -1.25 0 -2 -2.75
JH -2 3.75 2 -0.5 3.5 6.75 9.75
JK -4 1 0 -0.5 1 -2.5 -5
ET -3 1 3 0 1.5 2.5 2.25
TY -8 4.5 1.75 -2 0.5 -3.25 -2
LW -4 2.25 0.5 0 0 -1.25 0.5
MS -2 3.5 5.25 -0.5 0 6.25 1.75
AN 0 1 1 -0.25 0 1.75 -1
TM -1 9 1.5 -1.5 2 10 9
Tot -44 34.5 24.5 -7 13 20 27
(75/95)

Some interesting observations follow from these stats:

  • Elton Brand was the star of the game using conventional stats: 25 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal, 2 blocks, 0 turnovers.  In ODP he was far and away the best Sixer (+10, second highest was Jrue's +3).  But the big surprise for me in compiling these stats was that Brand did not have the highest DP number: he allowed a lot of baskets and gave up a few offensive rebounds, and he was a net negative on defense, so his overall DP was +7.5 (still very good).
  • Best DP of the game was Jrue's +9.75.  He made more shots than he missed and picked up 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals with 0 turnovers, so his boxscore stats were good.  But amazingly, his "Scored On" column was only -2 (two early Collison baskets were it the whole game), and his "Stops" column was higher (+3.75).  [This is all the more impressive because the best a defender can do for a "Stop" is +0.5, while a basket allowed is at least -1 for the defender.]  Together with the turnovers forced, Jrue's DDP was an excellent +6.75 and his overall DP was a team-high +9.75.
  • Another big surprise: second best defensive DP belonged to Speights at +6.25.  Speights picked up a ton of defensive rebounds and was also credited with several stops (being at least in the neighborhood on many missed shot attempts).  Too bad his offense was so poor this game (-4.5 ODP). 
  • Iguodala had a good defensive number (+4.25) but was scored on a few times.  His "Stops" were more spectacular than Jrue's (4 blocks), but Jrue actually had a better Stop-to-Scored On ratio.  Still, Iguodala was one of only two Sixers (with Jrue) who were net positives on both offense and defense.
  • Thad led the team in "Stops" (+4.5) but was also second-worst to Brand in "Scored On" (-8), and he also gave up 4 offensive rebounds.  His numbers are reflective of the commentary about him, some positive, some negative.
  • The fact that "Team" gets credit for "Stops" of +9 means that Indiana missed a lot of open shots and free throws.  (Granger and Dunleavy, in particular, missed several open jumpers.)  +2 for "Team" in Turnovers Forced means that there were some unforced turnovers too.  So part of the Sixers' blowout win could be attributed to the Pacers playing poorly. 
  • Finally, what more can be said about Kapono?  12 minutes, team worst -5 DP.
As before, I've sent the full spreadsheet with breakdowns by quarter and half to Brian, so those interested in the details can download it here.

Good win; hopefully there will be more games like this!