For the second time in three days, the Sixers will take on a team bound for the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks put on an offensive show against the Grizzlies on Wednesday, dropping 119 points in a 15-point win. This team isn't searching for the offensive identity like the Heat were, they're familiar with each other and they're going to present significant matchup problems.
I haven't heard word on the starting lineup, and I'm really not sure it matters a whole lot considering Collins quick trigger with subs. Instead of getting hung up on who Kapono will cover for his dozen minutes, let's just look at some key matchups that will probably occur throughout the game:
- Jrue vs. Bibby - If you recall, Bibby torched Jrue last season, mainly with threes. If Jrue draws that assignment, he absolutely has to crowd Bibby. At this stage of his career, Bibby is not a threat to drive. Don't leave him to help and don't give him any airspace, even when he's dribbling near the three-point line. On the offensive end, this is a matchup Jrue should be able to exploit. He's going to need to use his dribble to pressure the defense. Driving past Bibby will draw multiple help defenders and open up interior passes for easy opportunities.
- Brand vs. Josh Smith - Big, big mismatch problem here. Smith has an astronomical athletic advantage over Brand. The best thing EB can do is to lag off Smith and dare him to take any shot outside of the paint. If he's up on Smith, Smith will blow by him off the dribble and punish Hawes or whoever else is trying to cover him. Against a guy Smith's size, I'd say Brand would be able to do work on the offensive end, but Smith is just too long and too good of a shotblocker. The best thing to do would be to utilize Brand in the pick-and-pop game. If he knocks down a couple 15-footers, Smith may just be drawn away from the hoop (he had 5 blocks in Wednesday's game).
- Marvin Williams - Williams is the type of player I hate. A guy who's content to shoot long twos all day long. Use that to your advantage. Double off of him (he doesn't shoot many threes and he doesn't shoot them particularly well). Consider any possession that ends with a Marvin Williams 20-footer a win. He'd actually be a good matchup for Thad.
- Thad vs. Josh Smith and/or Al Horford - Terrible, terrible matchup for Thad on offense. He won't have his normal quickness advantage against either of these guys. On the defensive end, Horford will overpower Thad and Smith is just to aggressive for a passive defender like Thad. Expect dunks galore whenever that matchup presents itself.
- Pachulia and Horford - These guys are a handful for a legitimate frontcourt, the Sixers bigs don't stand a chance in the trenches. I'm expecting big offensive rebounding numbers for ATL, unless Iguodala and Turner can go toe-to-toe with them.
If Collins wanted to experiment with the starting lineup again, this would be a decent unit to do it against. If he's insistent on starting Kapono for his ball-friendliness, I like these matchups a whole lot better than the ones you'd get from the same starting lineup he used against Miami:
- PG: Jrue vs. Mike Bibby
- SG: Turner vs. Joe Johnson
- SF: Kapono vs. Marvin Williams
- PF: Iguodala vs. Josh Smith
- C: Brand vs. Al Horford
It's not going to happen as the starting lineup, but I'd love to see Collins go to it for a stretch.
Interesting Matchup - Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams playing extremely similar roles off the bench. Who wins that battle?
Prediction - ATL 108, PHI 99
Your thoughts, concerns, predictions and ball-friendly platitudes in the comments, as usual. The game thread will be up at 5:30pm, the tip is at 7.
Looking at that picture of Collins, I can hear him saying "whoah, whoah, whoah... now let's just wait a second right now."
This is the first game where we'll really get to see the effect of not having Dalembert in the middle. Horford is a good but not great center who has been mostly held in check by Dalembert in the past (10 ppg vs. the Sixers vs. 12 ppg overall). I'll be interested to see how well Hawes does against him (by way of comparison, Horford has averaged 16 ppg vs. the Kings in his career).
I don't think the Sixers can score 99.
Yeah I think I need to agree with this. I don't see them breaking 100 too often this year(especially this early) unless the other team is over 120 points in a high tempo game.
Prediction - ATL 96, PHI 89
I don't like the Hawks chances this season at all. My guess is this is a good chance for the Sixers to get their first win. The only thing that worries me is Horford (whom i really like as a player) torching our non-existant inside defense. This should be a good game for Jrue, Igoudala and Brand with Lou and Kapono contributing significantly. There is no way Turner will be as good as he was against the Heat, but i hope he can have a decent game, especially considering that the Hawks perimeter defense isn't that good.
Prediction: Sixers win 97 : 94
OT: Just read this on another blog... dberri
"So against the Thunder the Bulls shot 24 of 93 field goal attempts from 16-23 feet, for a “Shit Shot” percentage of 26%. Not as bad as the Wizards, but still below average."
This seems to be coming up over and over recently on this blog, figured I'd share.
I like Berri, he's the closest thing basketball has to 'bill james'
How about another day, another ridiculous line? Hawks -3.5. I'll be there tonight.
Maybe the Sixers make another late run to make it respectable- and near the line.
Yeah man, these seem really profitable.
On this point I agree with you, even if the sixers come back at the end in 'garbage' time, i think they'll lose by at least four. I mean doesn't ZaZa usually tear up the sixers?
Tonights prediction contest
Free Throw for Starters total
Who gets to the FT line for the starters (techs don't count)
Minutes for Jrue Holiday
Assist Leader
Evan Turner, double double (pts/rebounds)?
Posterized by Josh Smith first.
Free Throw for Starters:
Iguodala 4
Holiday 4
Brand 2
(numbers meaning FT attempts, not trips to the line)
Minutes for Jrue Holiday: 30
Assist Leader: Iguodala
Evan Turner, double double (pts/rebounds)? Nope.
Posterized by Josh Smith first: Spencer Hawes
OT again: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-76ers
Has anyone looked at this? (the contributors' rankings overall)
Are these insane or am I? I think it is just me more and more.
Surprisingly they seem pretty accurate (Hollinger for some reason is alwyas overly optimistic on the sixers) on average to me, 3rd/4th place in the division, out of the playoffs, totally see that as happening.
ESPN's "panel of experts" in any sport aren't usually that good, but I find that their NBA panel is the weakest when it comes to 'expertise'
Completely agree with GoSixers, I thought it wasn't that bad for their overall standing. I do disagree with the Division ranking however. I think we are one of the two worst teams in the Atlantic division along with Toronto, and I think that the raptors might be a tiny bit better than the sixers.
WEll the 'average' for the sixers (down at the bottom of the page) was 3.3, so there were some 4's n there i'm sure (and some 5's) I mainly focused on the average at the bottom.
I think the sixers could finish 3rd 4th or 5th, new jersey is just too unknown a quantity right now - and who knows if the sixers adjust to collins and if Iguodala gets moved or chris broussard is just blowing smoke as usual
I've noticed that Hollinger always really likes the Sixers as well. Is he just a big Iguodala fan?
I don't believe so, he's a big speights fan though
He loves guys who are on the bench with high 'per' nubers so he can tout it as finding sleepers :)
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/20101029_Bob_Cooney_.html
Pretty telling stuff I suppose. I think Iguodala's days are numbered. This is the closest they've ever come to admitting they're going to tear it down and rebuild.
Not a single quote from anyone in the sixers front office. Cooney is doing what he's 'good' at, baseless speculation to fuel the fire of a dwindling sixers fan base.
All this tells me is how Cooney views the sixers 'direction' and choice. So it's as believable to me as much as Cooney's ability or opinion is respected.
He's more of a lackey for the organization than any of the other writers though. Only reason I posted it here.
Didn't know that he was perceived as a team lackey any more than any of his other daily news inquuirer cohorts