On this glorious Monday morning, let's take a close look at the playoff race, see if we can call a winner, and lay out all the scenarios for first-round matchups. The Sixers only have two games left, the first of which features Dwight Howard and the Magic in Philly later tonight.
OK, so here's the story. The Sixers remain 1 game behind the Knicks, but their tragic number is actually one with two games to go. For the Sixers to pass the Knicks, they actually have to pass them because NY holds the tiebreaker. Losing that game to the Knicks last week was really the final nail in the coffin, but let's look at the remaining schedules anyway:
PHI
- vs. ORL, tonight
- vs. DET, Wednesday
NYK
- vs. Chicago, Tuesday
- @ Boston, Wednesday
Obviously, the Sixers need to win both games, and the Knicks need to lose both for the Sixers to pass the Knicks. It's not a terrible stretch to think the Knicks will lose to the Bulls and the Celtics. In the Sixers favor: Orlando played a tough, tough game against the Bulls on Sunday, they're playing the second night of a back-to-back. Unfortunately, Dwight Howard was suspended for the game, so he won't be winded. Orlando also isn't playing for anything and the Sixers have done a great job of coming up with a game plan for dealing with Howard earlier this season and done a good job of executing it. Iguodala's knee shouldn't be much of a factor, they don't have wings who are going to blow by you off the dribble.
Another thing playing in the Sixers favor, if Chicago takes care of the Knicks on Tuesday night, they finish the season at Boston, on the second night of a back-to-back, against a well-rested Boston team that should still have something to play for. Which brings us to the other important race.
Miami's trouncing of the Celtics yesterday gave them a one-game lead for the second seed in the East. Each team has two games remaining, but the key here is that the Celtics, not the heat, own the tiebreaker. Boston is still very much alive in that race. Here's a look each team's remaining schedule:
MIA
- @ Atlanta, tonight (second night of a back-to-back
- @ Toronto, Wednesday night
BOS
- @WAS, tonight (second night of a back-to-back
- vs. NYK, Wednesday night (NYK 2nd night of a b-2-b)
Miami's schedule looks easier, but they're more than capable of laying an egg. Atlanta is coming off a humiliating loss to the Wizards on Saturday, and they'll be looking to establish some momentum heading into the playoffs. Yeah, that's probably a reach, especially considering Atlanta's spineless nature, but it's possible. Then you've a game that could be the ultimate upset stage. Toronto, the city that was burned by Chris Bosh, will have a chance to play spoiler in their last game of the year, against Chris Bosh's new team. The Heat will be overlooking them, worrying about their playoff matchup. TOR's youth may just have an upset in them.
On Boston's side, if they can get an easy one at Washington tonight, they're going to have all the motivation in the world to beat the Knicks on Wednesday night. After all, the Knicks are most-likely their first round matchup. Beyond that, though, with a win against the Wiz, the Celts will still have a shot at the number two seed, and home court advantage in the second round against the Heat, should both teams advance to the second round. Miami's magic number is two, with two games left.
At this point, though, the math gets a bit tricky. Here's an in-depth look at the matrix between these four teams::
That chart actually paints a slightly prettier picture than the raw numbers. If you forget about the actual schedule, and who BOS, NYK and MIA are playing in their remaining games, there are 45 different ways the season could end (PHI 2-0, NYK 2-0, BOS 1-1, MIA 2-0 as one example. BOS vs NYK limits the overall number, because both teams can't finish 0-2 or 2-0.). 29 of those scenarios have the Sixers facing the Heat in the first round (64.4%), 16 would match the Sixers up with the Celtics (35.6%).
At this point, you may be asking yourself, "OK, so what should I root for?" Well, if you want Miami in the first round, this pretty simple, root for Boston to lose every game and Miami to win at least one game. That means no matter what the Sixers do, they face Miami.
If you want the Sixers to face the Celtics, it's going to be a fluid thing. First, root for the Sixers to win. If they take care of the Magic, then the #6 seed is within your reach, so you want stasis from Boston and Miami. If both teams win or both teams lose, it's status quo and all options are open. If Boston wins and Miami loses, we have to get up #6 to get the Celts. If the Celtics win and the Heat lose, things get interesting and we have to turn our attention to Tuesday night when the Knicks play the Bulls. If the Knicks beat the Bulls, the #6 seed is out of reach and we have to root for Boston to take over #2, which would require a Celtics win over the Knicks and a Heat loss to Atlanta on Wednesday. If the Knicks lose, then our path is clear. We need to beat the Pistons, have the Celtics beat the Knicks and the Heat beat the Hawks.
If the Sixers lose to Orlando, than it's really simple, you root for the Celtics to win all their games and the Heat to lose all of theirs. Our only chance is if the Celtics pass (or really just catch) the Heat.
Personally, I'm going to be rooting for the #6 seed and Boston to finish 3rd, mainly because I want Boston, but I'm more concerned with seeing the Sixers finish the season strong than who they see in the first round. I'd trade a promising 2-0 finish and a matchup with the Heat for two bad games and backing into a series with the Celtics, though that may be foolish.
I want Boston because if the 76ers play their game and wear the Celtics out with their speed they can beat Boston. I'm sure either way the 76ers have their hands full with all the superstars on both teams, but they should have some confidence against Boston having beat them. With Miami it's more difficult, but they played them tight. I just think the 76ers are too in awe of the Wade-LBJ-Bosh combo.
Story: Williams' hamstring 'feeling good':
http://ow.ly/4xrYq
I would like to see Boston in the first. Not because I think we have a stronger possibility of beating them, which we might. I just wasn't alive during the battles these teams had that make me inherently hate the Celtics. Not that a first round match up between us and them would somehow be like Chamberlain and Russell. The 76ers and Celtics are forever bound in basketball history, and we've only had a playoff match up with them once in the last 25 years. It's overdue.
I also think a Miami Vs New York match up is a perfect scenario. Wade/Diva/Diva Vs. Diva/Diva/Turiaf is made for TV entertainment. The circus that would ensue might even grab me a bit.
Blog: Sixers starting to think about playoffs:
http://ow.ly/4xuIh
Iguodala is out tonight to rest the knee. I think we need to root for Boston to win and Miami to lose if we want Boston in the first round, now.
Given the results, sounds like they should have rested him a whole lot earlier. Its not as if his hobbled presence helped much in the W/L column this past week. But of course that is hindsight.
So definitely 30+ of Turner. I hope he builds on his recent improvement.
BTW, quickly pulled so painful looking ET stats. Looks at the 64 NBA players age 21-23 who play 15+ minutes per game:
Min/game: 39th
Win Scores: 43rd
WS/48min:45th
PER: 53rd
TS%: 59th
eFG%: 60th
FG%: 46th
3pt%: 36th
FT% 23rd
points: 48th
FTA: 49th
Reb: 30th
TRB%: 30th
Stl%: 31st
USG%: 48th
ORTG: 52nd
DRTG: 15th
Asst: 23rd
Stl: 46th
The only huge problem with the TS% and eFG%. He is bottom 5% in the NBA.
The eFG is always going to be pretty low for a perimeter guy who doesn't shoot the three well. The TS% is the concern, and that's only going to really go up if he starts getting to the line consistently and hits a good rate (currently 80%). Of course if he adds a three-point shot and increases getting to the line, then they'll skyrocket.
I really don't know what to expect from this summer. If they completely change his jumper, is he going to be able to master the new mechanics with a couple of months of work? Will it be repeatable in the first season with it? Will he be better with the new mechanics than he was w/ the mechanics he used his whole life? What if it winds up making the jumper worse?
It's an iffy proposition and I guess it kind of makes you wish he had better coaching somewhere along the line so he didn't have 15 years of muscle-memory to fix.
I think the even bigger question for next season is his role. if Lou/Jrue/Iguodala are all still here I don't see Turner having the ball in his hands enough to be an effective contributor.
The two are hand-in-hand. If he "fixes" his jumper, and it's consistent, he shouldn't "need" the ball in his hands to be a bigger contributor.
Personally, I think he should be the ballhandler when Jrue is out of the game. Lou can play that role, but that doesn't mean he should.
In rookieland, Cousins had a classic Cousins game: 15 on 10 shots, 13 and 5, but 7 turnovers and 6 fouls. Davis with 18, 8 and 3 blocks, 9-14.
In the MVP race, Miami's home crowd was chanting "MVP" when Dwyane Wade went to the FT line. Silent when LBJ was there later in the game.
They're confused. But yeah, I mean, Wade's a better player than Rose too.
"Real" Heat fans should have a stronger affinity for Wade.
Obviously, as evidenced by the fact that LeBron had about twice as good a game and the fans were still saying MVP for the wrong guy.