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Basketball-Reference.com Projections

http://www.depressedfan.com/img/ProjectorGetIt092409.jpg
My favorite research tool, Basketball-Reference.com, has posted a set of predictions for the upcoming season based on expected win shares and a formula to estimate playing time and time lost to injury. After the jump, we'll take a look.


B-R.com has the Sixers at 38.7 wins, good for the 8th and final spot in the playoffs. They have Cleveland leading the East with 50.5, the Bucks bringing up the rear with 33.6. They used formulas exclusively to determine minutes played, so these numbers are really trivial, but here's a breakdown of their Sixers predictions:

SixersProjections092409.gif

DP stands for draft position, by the way. The thing that jumps out at me right away are the minutes played. They have Iguodala playing almost 400 fewer minutes than he did last season, Willie Green as the 2nd busiest reserve. So I figured we'd preserve their win shares/48 rates and then apply them to what I think the minute distribution will look like:

MySixersMinutes092409.gif
The interesting part of their projections, at least to me, is the variance in win shares/48 minutes. Basically, how they project players to perform relative to their performances last season (or over their careers). Here's a brief look:

projectiondifs092409.gif
So, B-R.com is projecting improvement from Lou, Dalembert, Thad, Kapono, Smith, Carney and Ivey. A regression by Iguodala, Brand, Speights, Green and Brezec.

By no means is this gospel, but I appreciate any attempt at projections using advanced stats.

by Brian on Sep 24 2009
Tags: Basketball | Offseason | Predictions | Sixers |