Heading into a new season, fans and pundits are calling for more wins. But it will take at least a 50% jump in wins to be even talking about playoffs. A winning season is a possibility, but probably not something we can count on. But this can still be an exciting and compelling season - because this could be 'the year' for so many players on this roster.
Looking at the main storylines of the past few years, it's easy to tell why this year is different:
- 2005/6: Can AI and CWebb bring winning back to Philly? (nope)
- 2006/7: The AI trade
- 2007/8: Overachieving with Miller leading the young guys
- 2008/9: The Brand Plan, pt 1 (derailed)
- 2009/10: The Brand Plan pt 2 - the Princeton/Jordan edition (failed)
Well at least 2007/8 was a fun ride ... and this year should be another enjoyable season because of all of the interesting sub-plots. Can Thorn come in and both stabilize the front office while shaking up the roster? How will the team respond to a "real coach" and how will Collins coaching translate to a new generation of young players? Is the third time the charm for a SG/SF combo of Iguodala/Thad? Will Iguodala emerge as a better leader and smarter player after his medal winning summer?
And most importantly, how will these players respond in their personal Make/Break or Break Out years?
I list players in order from most likely to break out to most likely to break. I assign percentages that don't add up to 100%. The in-between meaning we are left in the gray area (like we are entering the season.) And for most of these players it truly is make or break, and we will know by the end of this season. How would you assess their chances?
1. Jrue Holliday: The trendy, consensus choice to break out toward stardom. Certainly not a make or break year at age 20, but where do you place the odds of Jrue having a truly break out year where he earns the right to be talked about in the same breath as the top 10 PG's in the NBA?
+ Make: Establishes himself as a top tier NBA starting PG. 60%
- Break: Lack of offense and pure PG instincts lowers his ceiling (another rookie -> Soph disappointment.) 15%
2. Evan Turner: Rookies should not be seen as make or break. But the high expectations and chorus of doubters means Turner needs to prove himself, or be the next in a long line of Philly whipping boys.
+ Make: Shows signs of future stardom while making an impact by the second half of the season. 65%
- Break: Is overmatched physically and overwhelmed emotionally by the pressure of his rookie season. The critics start to close in. 10%
3. Thaddeus Young: Yesterday's wunderkind has lost some of his luster. In this his contract year, will he finally put it together now that he has been penciled in as the starting PF?
+ Make: Establishes himself as a legit NBA starting SF. 25%
- Break: Defensive and execution flaws relegate him to a change-of-pace bench scorer. 50%
4. Lou Williams: Were last season's improved numbers an anomaly playing in a flawed system?
+ Make: Becomes even a more efficient and deadly scorer and emerges as a leading 6th man. 50%
- Break: Unable to succeed in more of a team concept and regresses into a less efficient chucker. 35%
5. Mo Speights: Always productive offensively in spurts, while pure numbers on defense hint at ability that fails to materialize on the floor. But this year he will finally get regular minutes and is "in shape."
+ Make: Keeps his per 36 min production as a near 20/10 guy while logging 25+ minutes/game. He steps up into Sam's absence as the best (and at least serviceable) interior player on both ends of the floor. 30%
- Break: With the team really needing him, Speights shows he is nothing more than a jump shooting big who cannot cash in on his natural gifts and talent. Or shows he is fragile and can't stay in shape to deliver regular minutes. 50%
6. Elton Brand: Slim, trim and ready to roll (take 3.)
+ Make: Finally healthy and ready to anchor the post (instead of just being an anchor), Brand, emerges as a comeback of the year candidate by being a productive starter. Similar to how K-Mart became a solid player on a winner in Denver - even if his star days are gone. 35%
- Break: Last chance to contribute. The same "old" Brand probably means a bench role after next year's lock-out, and then waiting to expire. 50%
7. Spencer Hawes: A second chance at making a good first impression. Discarded from The Kings, he is now the only true center on the roster.
+ Make: Positive impact on offense through passing and decent shot selection, without being too much of a liability on defense. Probably too much to ask for him to be the answer at center - but at least he could be part of the answer? 25%
+ Break: A repeat of last year's league-worst post defense and settling for low percentage jumpers. Part of potentially the weakest defensive frontcourt in the NBA 2 seasons in a row on 2 different teams is a distinct possibility. 35%
8: Meeks: The heir apparent to Willie Green, but will he even get a chance to show he is a legit NBA rotation guy?
+ Make: Opportunity knocks and Meeks responds by putting up efficient scoring/shooting in regular minutes. 15%
- Break: Another year nailed to the pine or a failure when he gets the chance. 60%
9. Brackins: See Meeks above (both are 23, so need to show something.) The next Roy Hinson J 10%/60%
10. Nocioni/Kapono/Songalia: Older, potentially washed up guys known for their shooting and varying degrees of toughness, chippyness and willingness to give hard fouls (or in Kapono's case a complete lack of all 3, but he can hit the 3.) Trying to show they should not be watching in street clothes.
+ Make: Positive impact in (very) small doses. 25% any one emerges in a good role.
- Break: Anything else (including Nocioni playing too many minutes, and playing them poorly.) 65%
Give me your take on who will be the break out players for this season, and who will simply break.
I'm going to say yea to Jrue in a big way and Meeks in a minor way. When the season's over, Meeks is going to look like a keeper.
Lou keeps his production pretty much the same as last season and we run into a minutes problem between he and Turner. Speights maybe shows some improvement, simply because he can run the length of the floor without risking a heart attack.
For the rest, well, I'm not hopeful. Check that, I do have one hope, that Rod Thorn's complete lack of attachment to any of them will allow him to let them walk rather than extending them based on some kind of loyalty/aversion to egg on his face because he drafted them.
A couple notes on last night's game(s)...
- Nothing much to read into the Sixers game, mainly because I didn't see it. I'm not going to go nuts about the box score of the first preseason game against the Nets. But I do have a couple of questions. (1) Who was "guarding" Terrence Williams? I thought I saw on Twitter that Turner was on him. If that's the case, he got thoroughly abused by a guy who can't crack the Nets' starting lineup. (2) Five turnovers for Jrue? Come on.
- Can we please not have a repeat of the Ty Lawson thing from last year. I really don't want constant DeMarcus Cousins updates unless they involve the inevitable choking of a coach, DWI or general mug shot incident.
- Wade is the first of the big three to go down to injury, nothing serious though. I'm so sick of that team already.
- 19 points on 14 shots looks kinda good for Speights, but 19 points on 14 shots and 14 free throws is pretty bad offense. I love seeing him get to the line like that, but 4/14 from the floor is atrocious.
- I'd really like to be able to watch these games. What a joke.
You won't be getting any Cousins updates from me, but I have to say that from what you say about the frontcourt the Sixers should have taken Cousins with no questions asked. If nothing else he can rebound, and everybody raves about his post moves. What makes you think he's going to choke a coach? He seems a little like Derrick Coleman, a guy who didn't suffer fools gladly and had his reputation ruined as a result. (Ever read the real story behind "whoop-de-damn-doo"?)
Going into the draft the sixers (in my opinion) had holes at every position but 2 (Holiday and Iguodala), 3 if you count Dalembert, but he wasn't really in their long term plans. With the #2 pick in the draft and that many holes you pick the best player available.
DeMarcus Cousins had #1 pick talent, that was accepted by most, he had numerous red flags that made many teams wary as he didn't go until #5. It might have been a mistake but when you're drafting that high all those red flags have to concern you and Evan Turner was seen by most as the #2 pick in the draft hands down.
I think he was the second most talented player in the draft, behind Wall. He's unquestionably more talented than Turner, IMO. But I would have taken turner with almost no hesitation, and still would have.
How much more talented do you think Wall was and the 'big man' factor makes Cousins (on talent alone) more alluring doesn' it? Or is the league now fully a 'back court' league than a big man league?
I know I read a lot of varying folks praise Cousins talent but so many red flags warned people away. I was of the opinion that if the sixers drafted him I wouldn't have minded because I believe they would have done their due diligence on the issues, I go on the hope that they researched Cousins completely and decided it wasn't worth the risk.
Sacramento isn't exactly a town rife with temptation for a person either.
BTW - thanks for the brackins stuff, really helpful (and depressing) to read
If I projected Cousins as more dominant defensively, then he would have gotten more value as a big man. I only overrate dominant defensive big men, which I don't see Cousins becoming.
That being said, I'd be shocked if he didn't score 20 per game during the prime of his career. He's that talented. The key for me is whether he can become a + passer out of the double team (and, obviously, whether he maintains his weight and his maturity issues pass).
NP on Brackins. Wanted to get it online sooner, but took longer than I expected to watch the tape, and didn't want to put it up without taking in as many of his "key" games as I could.
Coleman was one of the biggest wastes of talent to ever play in the NBA. He should've been a hall of famer, instead he was basically useless after his first five years in the league, and really wasn't great in those first five either.
If Cousins winds up having the same career as Coleman, then the four teams who passed on him were right to do so, imo.
I was talking about his personality more than his career. (14 years) But he did average 17 & 9 for his career. And 1.3 blocks. He had 3 20/10 seasons. I wouldn't call him a waste or a bust, but almost everybody does.
But he was the 2nd best player taken in the first round that year (and probably the 2nd best in the draft)... although Colemas was not the first round pick that year that my sister briefly dated...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_NBA_Draft
That was a really bad draft. I think Doug Smith went 4th. There were 4 pretty bad ones in a row, 1988-1991.
Have to say the odds are pretty realistic for all of them. This post just got funnier and funnier as it went on, was cracking up from Lou Williams on.
What's the difference between a realistic fan and a depressed one? I really don't know any more.
"But, I'm funny how? Funny like a clown? I amuse you? I make you laugh? I'm here to ******' amuse you?"
I am going to say Turner in a big way. Last night it seemed he was effective but, as a quote said, doing it his own way and not in the flow of the game. Well we are looking for a scorers' mentality so being aggressive is a good thing I guess.
Thad was my 2nd choice to break out but I am wondering if he is an injury prone guy; it just seems he always has something happen to him.
Jrue, at 20, will slightly improve on his per 36 numbers this year but hopefully cuts down his turnovers.
On a side note, Evan WAS one of the top 3 rookies last night from looking at the boxscores.
Jrue will be our best player by the end of the season.
I have made my silly blanket statement.
PS - We need to trade some people immediately.
The only ones tradeable are the ones that should be kept
Such is the state of a crappy team.
:*(
I still have some hope for Speights to show decent improvement, I think he'll have an opportunity to play at center as Collins realizes that Hawes is not helping the team when he's on the floor. If Speights shows a little more effort and understanding on the defensive end, he should have a successful year, I'm hoping Collins can bring that out of him. But he's not gonna have any excuse this time, it's the best chance to show what he's got, hopefully he gets that in his head and comes out with fire.
It was good to see, according to Fagen's game updates , that Marreese got some time at the p.f. spot in the 4th quarter. He replaced Brackins and played next to Hawes.
I have my doubts about Speights. While he has value, I'd like to see him moved for a young athletic defensive big who is more of a center. Someone who can take Hawes minutes when he is underperforming(could be against most physical centers). Offense for defense.
I wouldn't trade Speights until he clearly shows me he cannot or will not play any defense. Speights has the potential to be a #1 scorer on a team that desperately needs one. On top of that, he's a scoring big, and there are very few of them. He has been described as Amare Lite and could go on to do what Amare does, maybe more if he will play decent defense.
Unlike Amare, Speights can go to either hand. Amare is probably a worse defender than Speights is, and Speights will improve (I hope).
Looking at the Box score, Iggy shot 2 threes.
Ugh.
Collins needs to fine him a grand for every three he shoots.
Don't even tell me it's because of Eddie J he was shooting three's either. He was shooting threes during the World Championship too. I need to make a website called STOP SHOOTING THREES ANDRE or something.
I'm assuming iguadala spent most of his energy shutting down outlaw and humphries. He contributed nil on offense which is a surprise with thad going down.
I expect Iguodala will try to let other players step up and learn their roles during the pre-season. But if the regular season losses start piling up, he might want to control the ball more like he is used to.
I'm curious to know what Collins has to say about his performance. If he plays tonight, and Collins said he wouldn't, it would say a lot. It doesnt make a lot of sense for him to lay back. Turner mentioned when running through the offense he wants to make sure he's not in the way. Why would iggy do less than he would during the season? Don't the other players have to figure out their roles around him?
I'm not that surprised, actually. Collins talked about having Iguodala take it easy in the preseason, rest up from the Worlds. He's probably fine letting the other guys get their shots up, figure out the offense, etc. When he's going full speed and has a chance to see the team's strengths/weaknesses on the offensive end, he'll assert himself more.
Though I don't think it's accurate saying he's going to dominate the ball, we're talking about a low usage guy even when he's leading the team in scoring.
I just want to see Dre comfortable in the cluster offense this pre-season. Playing tough defense comes natural to Dre. If he could only up his FGA to about 16-17 per game and stay as efficient (basically stay away from shooting 3's) he could easily break 20 PPG. It's time for him to reach that All Star level.
Someone who can take Hawes minutes when he is underperforming (could be against most physical centers). Offense for defense.
Should read: (could be against every center in the league). Hawes is a stiff.
Someone who can take Hawes minutes when he is underperforming(could be against most physical centers). Offense for defense.
Should have said most centers but I'm giving him the benefit of doubt. We'll find out soon enough. Trying not to be too depressed! I would like to see a young physical center in here. Speights is not a center. Maybe, Kapono's expiring could also get one here.
There aren't many in the league, let alone available ones.
I'd rather see Speights get 25 minutes a game at center than Hawes, I know Speights has his flaws, but it gives us a player who is at least somewhat productive at the 5 spot. I don't mind if Hawes plays at first, you know, give him a chance to surprise. But Collins better not force feed him all year if he's terrible just cause he signed off on the trade, that would be maddening.
Well, Hawes is ball-friendly. It's going to be hard to live without that.
There was some conversation on the last post about the comment response page. There's actually a technological reason for that page, it's there to stop the system from getting bogged down by too many requests at once.
I made a minor tweak to that page which should be useful. When you leave a comment, now you'll see a link to take you back to the comment thread. That will take you back to the comment you left, so you don't have to scroll all the way down through the comment thread to find your place again.
Does anyone else find great solace in ETs FT shooting. 30 for 32 including SL. 12 attempts in a game is impressive for even the best of the best.
I am. Getting 12 FTA in his first game tells you something - usually it means that the guy knows what he's doing with the ball in his hands.
He's been great at getting to the line and grabbing boards. That's a nice base to build on (hopefully).
Attacking the rim for FTs and boards is what the new NBA is all about.
I can't wait till he has a little string of 20 point games and we are all throwing a party.
This was my immediate thoughts when I saw the box score. I was actually really happy. I liked Speights' too.
Any postive from Turner means he will be earning minutes. That's all I need to see.
He's 22, but far from a finished product. And the good thing about Turner is he is a guy who will work on and off the court and should maximize his potential. But he might need to get stronger to be really effective.
I would Looooooove to see how he's getting to the line though. Is he attacking the hoop? Are guys reaching in on him a lot? Is he getting to the line while playing the one or the two? Anyhow it's still a very good sign off a smart basketball player. Apparently, our 3 best guys at drawing fouls are our first three off the bench.
Deleo used to stress getting to the line to offset not being a good 3pt. shooting team; our new coach must agree. According to Fagan the interior defense improved in the 2nd half so maybe our coach made adjustments, a good sign.
Have we ever had 3 guys take 10 or more foul shots in a game in the last 3 years?
Good question.
Lou and Miller did it in this game.
Miller and Iguodala in this game.
Lou and Iguodala in this game.
Lou and Iguodala in this game.
Miller and Iguodala in this game.
Miller and Iguodala in this game.
But nope, no games with three guys to attempt 10+ FT in the past three years.
This game was the last one I could find. Iguodala, Iverson and Korver in February of 2006.
Wow, Iguodala had 20 points on 6 shots in that game, Korver had 19 points on 7.
The lineup for hat game is just depressing. Ollie, Bradley and Hunter as starters with Shavlick Randolph as the first guy of the bench... And they actually won...
DSS, that's a very fine insight.
I can understand how a team that cannot shoot and has no post scorers will try and maximize FTA. But as a basketball fan that is ugly basketball and brings the refs too much into play on a nightly basis.
Sort of reminds me of when LB was coach in terms of how he maximized wins by "playing the right way", but this sometimes resulted in grinding games that were hard on the eyes. But I guess its better to win ugly if that's your only option.
But on the flip side, games with lots of fouls and FT's tend to lack good flow- which hampers your odds of getting out on the break. For whatever reason, if there are a lot of foul calls on one end, you tend to see loots of fouls and choppy flow on both enms.
I worry about relying on calls from the refs for a rookie. I worry more about relying on calls from the refs when you're a crappy team without a superstar. I worry most about relying on calls from the refs when you're playing teams with superstars regularly.
That being said, getting to the line too much is not a problem, obviously, I'd just like to see them have something else to fall back on, offensively.
I usually don't do comparisons, but when I do, is Evan Turner just a taller, more athletic version of Andre Miller?
I usually don't drink beer, but when I do, I beat my wife.
Oh man I screwed that up. Distracted at work, and I ruin a once in a month good joke by not saying "I don't always..."
Let me say up-front that I don't see any interesting subplots this season outside of Holiday and Turner's development. Otherwise, it looks like dull-as-dirt Sixers basketball as usual.
Anyway, I thought of why I'm distrustful of Turner; I simply doubt players who weren't good enough to come out until their junior year. Usually it's indicative of someone who racked up big numbers against younger and smaller competition. Here's a list of junior/senior lottery picks from 2000 on. As you'll see, it's a list with a ton of busts, only two stars (Brandon Roy and Deron Williams), and several good players and valuable role players who dominated in college but couldn't score so well in the league. Florida's don't count as they all could have left a year earlier and stayed to win another championship.
Thabeet
Stephen Curry (already great his freshman year, could've left sophomore)
Jordan Hill
Gerald Henderson
Terrence Williams
Tyler Hansbrough
Earl Clark
Brandon Rush
Jeff Green
Acie Law
Al Thornton
Adam Morrison
Shelden Williams
Brandon Roy
Randy Foye
J.J. Redick
Hilton Armstrong
Ronnie Brewer
Deron Williams
Channing Frye
Ike Diogu
Sean May
Emeka Okafor
Ben Gordon
Josh Childress
Devin Harris
Rafael Araujo
Luke Jackson
Mike Sweetney
Jarvis Hayes
Nick Collison
Marcus Banks
Jay Williams
Mike Dunleavy
Drew Gooden
Melvin Ely
Marcus Haislip
Shane Battier
Richard Jefferson
Kenyon Martin
Marcus Fizer
Chris Mihm
Etan Thomas
Courtney Alexander
And here are freshman lottery picks of the last ten years. Keep in mind that today, LeBron, Amare and Dwight Howard would be picked as freshmen.
Tyreke Evans
Demar DeRozan
Derrick Rose
Michael Beasley
O.J. Mayo
Kevin Love
Eric Gordon
Jerryd Bayless
Anthony Randolph
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant
Mike Conley
Brandan Wright
Spencer Hawes
Thaddeus Young
Tyrus Thomas
Marvin Williams
Luol Deng
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Bosh
Dajuan Wagner
Eddie Griffin
Rodney White
Dermarr Johnson
Jamal Crawford
Turner was good enough last year, but he wasn't good enough after his freshman year, imo, so your argument holds. I'm always skeptical when guys don't leave early, not really sure what Turner's story was.
"Florida's don't count as they all could have left a year earlier and stayed to win another championship."
If they don't count (and you put astericks next to guys like Curry), then Turner's an asterisk too. He was a likely 10-15 pick in 2009 had he been in the draft.
Right. And maybe Ben Gordon & Okeafor stayed to win a championship in '04. Maybe Jay Williams (probably would have been pretty good in the NBA) and Mike Dunleavy stayed to win a 2nd consecutive championship in '02 (they failed). But he's basically right and didn't have to weaken his argument by making pointless exceptions.
There's a lot of busts in that freshmen group too. And the junior group has players that are good but don't get much press, like Channing Frye, Ben Gordon, Jeff Green. And Richard Jefferson, K-Mart, Devin Harris have put together very good careers. I commend Turner for staying in college and if he can dominate guys just because they're a year or 2 younger than he is, then he'll be a good pro. If he actually gets to start he'll put up 15 a game IMO.
What's with the break dancing kid at the top of the page?
Brians old
No, that one is on me, although I would have put up something with a reference to this : http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a8/Breakin2.jpg just to show how old I am...
Or the soundtrack: http://oi39.tinypic.com/2m3kcuw.jpg
ELECTRIC BOOGALOO
And let me just say how those classics hold up against modern imitators like step up, or step up 2 the streets or even step up IN THREE-D