With the All Star break upon us, it's time to choose a side. After the jump, I'll lay out four paths, choose your own and we'll see where you wind up...
(If you don't know what a choose your own adventure book is, you're either really young, you were deprived as a child, or both.
Read all about 'em here.)
You are the owner of the Phildalephia 76ers. After investing almost $200M in your roster only 18 months ago, your team is now 12 games under .500 heading into the All Star break. They've looked like a lost team at times. The coach has antagonized his players, and vice versa. The general manager you brought in to right the ship seems to be way off course. Now it's time for your first decision. Do you:
(a)
Make no moves at all
(b)
Fire the coach and possibly the general manager
(c)
Shake up the roster
(d)
Fire the coach and shake up the roster
You chose to make no changes, play out the string..
Congratulations, the Sixers played just well enough to miss the playoffs, barely. They wound up with the #13 pick in the draft and managed to go a whole season with their young players having their minds polluted by one of the worst coaches in the league. On the bright side, they now have no team unity, no clear direction and a luxury tax bill will be due next February.
You chose to fire Eddie Jordan and maybe Ed Stefanski for good measure, but give the roster the rest of the season for assessment and development.
Congratulations, your interim coach was able to get the team to focus on defense and the smarter rotations led to a strong finish. You made up 4.5 games in the season over the last 30 games and finished with the #7 seed. Unfortunately, that meant another hard-fought first round exit from the playoffs and the #17 pick in the draft, again.
On the bright side, Jrue Holiday showed himself to be a true building block with his expanded role under your interim coach. Proper evaluations were also made of Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Rodney Carney and Jason Smith, so while you're still over the luxury tax limit, you can now formulate a clear plan moving forward. The team needs have been identified and your summer can be about two things. Finding the right man to coach the team and plugging the holes via draft or trade to retool and pick up where you left off in 2010-2011.
You chose to shake up the roster via trade.
Congratulations, you took it right down to the wire and got the absolute best deal you could for Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert. Unfortunately, no deal presented itself for both Iguodala and Brand, so you settled for the best package on the table for your two best defenders, which essentially amounted to a salary dump.
What was already a poor defense turned into a laughing stock over the last 30 games of the season. The talent left on the roster was barely enough to rival New Jersey on most nights, but a handful of games were won by Elton Brand's spiteful, angry play on the blocks. You finished the season with 28 wins, good for the 8th-worst record in the league. An unlucky bounce in the lottery dropped you down to the #9 pick, where you selected Hassan Whiteside.
You've essentially replaced Sam Dalembert with a huge project via the draft, and you're left with less than $10M in cap space to replace Andre Iguodala. Eddie Jordan is still your coach, so at least next season's draft pick will be much, much higher. Elton Brand is the defacto centerpiece of your roster.
You chose to fire Eddie Jordan and gut the team.
Congratulations, under this scenario, you built up enough karmic currency by first firing Eddie Jordan that someone actually took Elton Brand off your hands in the deal you used to dump Andre Iguodala. Shipping out your two-best players caused a nosedive of epic proportions, and you finished the season on a 5-25 streak. Unfortunately, 25 wins was only good enough for the 4th-worst record in the league, again bad luck left you with the number 5 pick, but you're lucky enough to get a guy you hope will wind up being your replacement for Andre Igudoala, Wesley Johnson.
Along with Johnson, you have between $10-16M in cap space along with three fairly attractive expiring contracts. You may be a player in free agency, maybe not. It's probably going to depend on the pieces you have left after the deadline fire sale and more importantly, who you decide to choose as your new head coach. No matter how much money you clear, you can cross Wade and LeBron off your wish list. They aren't signing on for a rebuilding franchise that can't draw any fans. You're probably talking about the second tier free agents, like Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.
Of course, at this point you also have the option of sitting on your cap space, playing the young guys a ton of minutes, and heading into the lockout with virtually no money committed beyond 2011. This is the cheapest route, obviously, and it would also probably guarantee a higher draft pick the following season (if not a half decade of guaranteed mediocrity).
So there you have it, which route did you choose? Are you happy with your choice? Which is most-likely? Food for thought as we wait to watch a Sixer-less All Star weekend.
Ha this was fun.
D
that was depressing. from depressedfan.com
makes sense.
E: pray for a plane crash and the first ever retooling of an entire franchise through the nba's catastrophe rule
A little much, no?
Feeling a little pessimistic Brian? I do now.
I liked this a lot, Brian. Took me back in time about 28 years... ahhh, things were nice back then.
Question... assuming we make absolutely no moves (trades or management changes) this season, what will it then take to get Joe Johnson on our roster? Probably a small miracle, right? I've always coveted him for the Sixers and think he'd complement Jrue and Iggy almost ideally.
Thanks for anyone's thoughts on this.
Hey, he would complement the team very nicely, but I'm not a big fan of an SG after 9+ years in the NBA. He might not be able to create his own shot as consistently in a year or two.
Seriously...maybe you should change the site's name to "Suicidal Fan."
I have found that the best part of waking up each day is the hope that when I open Firefox, I'll discover that Eddie Jordan has been kicked to the curb. It's like that speech Ben Affleck delivers at the end of Good Will Hunting...
B and D are close. It's tempting to be able to deal away Brand, but I'd probably go with B, since new (better) management is the best long term answer. Then this summer I would see if nay of the teams with cap space blow our doors off with a great trade offer for Iguodala. If not there is always the deadline next year, when at least we will have more trade chips (the expiring contracts.)
Ha, all of the choices suck. The book should be called mediocrity for the next 5 years. AGAIN.
I will go with choice 'e'.
Go to Home Depot and purchase an 8ft length of rope. According to science, this is just enough length to snap my neck when my I throw my 230lb body from the rafters and hang my lifeless body next to the 1983 championship banner.
Last one
Only one that provides any hope towards building a championship team in my mind (though #4 and a little luck nets you demarcus cousins)
"What was already a poor defense turned into a laughing stock over the last 30 games of the season. The talent left on the roster was barely enough to rival New Jersey on most nights, but a handful of games were won by Elton Brand's spiteful, angry play on the blocks. You finished the season with 28 wins, good for the 8th-worst record in the league."
Obviously you don't know it would work out that way. We could do much worse. And if they had started tanking sooner we wouldn't even be in this ridiculous position.
Unless you're talking about finishing 0-30, I don't think it really makes much of a difference. 8-22 seems reasonable to me if they lose Iguodala and Dalembert. 5-25 probably puts them somewhere around number 6 or number 7.
They are 2 games out of the 4th worst record right now. 5-25 would almost assure the 4th or 5th worst record.
If you have the 4th worst record here are your odds:
#1 pick: 11.9%
#2 Pick: 12.6%
#3 Pick: 13.3%
#4 Pick: 9.9%
#5 Pick: 35.1%
#6 Pick: 16.0%
#7 Pick: 12.0%
Let's take a closer look. 5-25 would give the Sixers 25 wins on the season.
The Nets aren't getting to 25, no way. So that's one team guaranteed below them.
Minnesota would have to finish 12-17 to get above 25 wins. Not likely. That's two.
Golden State would have to finish 11-20. Again, not likely. That's three.
Washington would have to finish 8-24. Unlikely but not impossible. They're rumored to be trading away Jamison and Butler, so I'm going to keep them below 25 wins for now. That's four.
Indiana and Sacramento would have to finish 7-23. Depends on what moves they make Detroit would have to finish 7-24.
I don't think all those teams finish that poorly, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that one or two of them could, especially if they're jockeying for John Wall position (which they probably will be).
So anywhere from 4th to 7th worst with a 5-25 finish. I'm thinking 6 or 7 is more likely than 4.
If Bosh and Joe Johnson are second tier free agents, then Iggy and Brand must be third tier players...
So you consider Bosh and Joe Johnson on the same level as LeBron and Wade? Good to know.
The first tier is lebron (and wade I guess, but I don't think he's on the same level as lebron in my opinion) and bosh to me
It's all realtive...teams like new york won't make a run at joe johnson until lebron re-signs with cleveland - hence he's 'second tier' because the teams with all the money have him as a secondary option if they can't get lebron.
How many teams have cap space?
Do you think those teams would rather trade for Iguodala than overpay for 2nd tier FA's?
Well the mavs believe they have a trade chip in eric dampier (I don't believe it because they have little else to offer).
The cavs get cap room if they lose lebron
The knicks have the cap room
I don't know who else is out there nor have i looked at all the numbers.
Supposedly the clippers have some room?
Just be clear, I don't think wade is on the level of lebron and due to injury history i'm not sure i'd prefer him over joe johnson just because of the perception that he's worth max dollars (wade) while johnson is perceived to be more affordable.
I think bosh IS closer to the same level as lebron than wade
Bosh is a little too one-way for my liking. He also looks a little too chemically enhanced for his walk year. He's clearly a step below Wade and LeBron in my mind.
LeBron is obviously on a level by himself, but Wade deserves a max contract. Bosh isn't a max deal guy, IMO.
Bosh may not be a great defender, but he is not undersized and grabs 11.4 reb/g. So I saying he's solely an offensive player is not completely fair.
He's good, I'm not saying he isn't. I'm not crazy about big jumps in walk years, though. Makes me wonder what he was doing when he wasn't playing for a contract. And saying he's not great defensively is putting it kindly. He's flat out bad.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Aja_Eu6zk_-kdGlLNlJuQVpUWlZUQzRhMUkyTml4ZEE&hl=en
That's odd, 82games.com has him as a pretty bad defender in both of their metrics. http://www.82games.com/0910/09TOR12.HTM
Hey - i'm not claiming any veracity of either source - nba defensive metrics are a mess - i don't know who is even close to accurate - just saying - there's one that shows he's a top 30 defender.
Not to mention - he's on a team that doesn't play defense this year, much like Amare...there are complains of suns fans that he's a 'bad' rebounder - but then how do you explain they're better defensively on the glass when he's on the floor.
Sometimes you are a better dfender (i think) than the system you are in allows you to.
Much like i think someone is going to grossly over pay that idiot PF in New York this year for big numbers on bad team
FYI Jrue is ranked #314/430.
It is difficult to make a metric that accurately measures defense. Probably guys like Bosh and David Lee benefit in this metric by being the only rebounders on a weak defensive team.
Then again, Kapono is ranked last, so it must be somewhat accurate :)
I don't know the last time the list was updated, when it was published I think Jrue was still languishing in DNP CD land...
It has willie green near the bottom too :)
You have to respect the fact that Wade pretty much carried the Heat to a title. Sure, there were all sorts of factors like the refs, good teammates, etc. But a hot streak from Wade can carry you to a title IMO.
But I see what you're saying about him being an injury risk. He can't keep abusing his body and hope to stay in this league for too long.
Personally, I put Bosh and Wade in the second tier, JJohnson and Amare in the third.
+1
There was this little thing of a motivated Shaq on Wades roster.
What has Wade done since that title, without shaq, what has he carried the heat to?
Not saying that he makes you a title contender - that's why I used the term 'hot streak'. And that's why he's second tier.
Well he hasn't carried any team anywhere on a hot streak without shaq - again.
I'm agreeing that he's second tier I think people just forget hot streak or no, a gift from the refs and am otivated shaq helped the heat win almost as much as Wade did.
Factoring in his injury history, and I think whoever gives him a max deal (Miami) might end up regretting it as much as the T-Mac deal
I agree signing him to a max deal, especially in Miami, where I think he might spend a little too much time partying, is probably going to wind up looking bad, but he's an all world talent. Head and shoulders above McGrady at any point in McGrady's career, IMO.
Can you build a championship team around him? Maybe. It hasn't been done yet, the Miami team was built around Slaq and the attention he (still) drew that season. Wade was more the beneficiary than the initiator, if you get my meaning.
If I had max money to spend this summer, LeBron is the prize, Wade is the consolation prize that you sign and hold your breath, no one else is worthy of a max deal IMO. No one else you can "build a championship around." So for a team like the knicks, it's pretty much LeBron, Wade or maybe a contract in Brand's range for Bosh. Otherwise, I'm either sitting on my cap space, making a trade, or looking for extreme value in signing a guy like Joe Johnson or possibly Gay.
A max deal for a 2 guard who needs the ball a lot and has injury issues or a more healthy offensively gifted (and maybe not as bad defensively as you think) power forward?
Sorry, in my mind - the power forward gets the money - harder position to fill in general with great talent.
I'd give more money to bosh before wade if it were me
I have no comments on his 'partying' in miami because have never heard much either way
McGrady was arguably the best non-big in the league at the height of his career. Around 2003 or so it was pretty much a toss-up between him and Kobe. We should remember, when comparing stats from then and now, that it was an entirely different league back then. The only guys who shot 50% from the field were power forwards and centers. In 03-04, the average team scored 93 a game. 2 teams scored over a 100 a game. The worst defensive team in the league gave up 101. Average shooting from the field was 43.9%. Today you have 16 teams scoring over a 100 a game, average scoring is 99.9, the league's shooting 46%, the average team takes over a couple hundred more threes a year. Against the background of the terrible offense of McGrady's heyday, what he did looks much more remarkable. In his best year, he had an offensive rating of 116 in a year where team average offensive rating was 103.6; in Wade's best year, last year, he had an offensive rating of 115 in a year where league average was 108.6.
Interesting breakdown.
That Magic team on which McGrady had his monster season may have played in a slower NBA in general, but they were a fast team in a slow league. They averged 93.1 possessions/game, whereas the Heat team Wade played for last season averaged only 89.9. In fact, every team Wade has ever played on intentionally slowed the pace down, making it harder for him to accumulate the per game numbers everyone loves to look at.
His numbers are very good in that one season, and probably better than Wade's best season, I'll give you that. But how about a dose of your own logic. How good could McGrady really have been if he never got out of the first round of the playoffs?
That's a good question. But who did he ever play with (in Orlando anyway, before he went to Houston and stopped being a great player)? Wade's gone 3-2 in the first round. The first time he won Eddie Jones and Lamar Odom were the ostensible leaders of the team, a team that also had Caron Butler, and the other two times he had a less dominant but still pretty great Shaq. Once Shaq broke down, he didn't win in the first round anymore. He likely won't this year. And in McGrady's case, when Hill wasn't healthy, which was always, he had nothing. In the famous "it feels so good to be out of the first round" series, his supporting cast was Drew Gooden, Giricek, and Darrell Armstrong. It's true that Iverson won with equally untalented rosters, but those guys played incredible defense. Orlando didn't and one man couldn't score enough points to overcome it. I think the Orlando McGrady easily wins a championship with Shaq and easily makes it out of the first round with Odom, Butler and Eddie Jones.
Definitely the 5 game winning streak hurt their tanking chances. But going uptown has its perks... like more rope for EJ.
Let's us see what he can cook next. So far his most interesting recipes:
-AI/Lou starting backcourt
-Kapono at PF
-Iguodala at PF
-Ivey instead of Brand (Jrue/Green/Ivey/Iguodala/Sam
Out of the four options, in order of preference:
1. Number 2- Get the Ed's outta here and see what we really have with this roster.
2. Number 4- Get Jordan outta here and rebuild. Admit poor team building decisions and move on.
3. Number 1- Do nothing and let Eddie crash and burn. Pray for John Wall.
4. Number 3- Please no. Anything but bringing in players for Jordan's system.
Every informed fan knows what HAS to happen first. Fire Eddie Jordan. Any other move will be corrupted by incompetence.
Corrupted by Incompetence would be a good team slogan, like "Run With Us."
I can see the fliers now:
The 2010-2011 Philadelphia 76ers, Corrupted by Incompetence.
More like "Come Watch Us."
Sixers...
Eagles, Phillies, Flyers, Union/Wings, Big-5.... Sixers
completely agree.
I think we all pretty much agree that Jordan must go. I honestly think 2 would be our best direction.
This year does not make sense after last year. I do not believe Miller is the reason for our poor play but our coach.
If we could just get rid of him, we then can make an intellegent decision of what we have left or to work with.
Agree with Statman that IA9 needs to get hurt or atleat play less minutes (or play like he did Wednesday night!) so we do not make the playoffs.
Ed Snider is the basketball/hockey equivalent to Al Davis. Egocentric prick still living off his successes during the disco era. We can do all the tinkering we want as far as gm/coach/players, they'll never get it right until we have owners that actually watch the team on a nightly basis.
Just had to get that off my chest....
I'd go with fire Eddie Jordan, and then if I'm owner i inform Stefanski that he's on thin ice. If he so much as mentions Byron Scott I fire him on the spot.
Great post Brian!
http://www.phillyburbs.com/opinions/blogs/intell_blogs/tom_moore.html
Read this article by Steve Alexander.
"Worst Fantasy Coach
Eddie Jordan, Philadelphia
This one was not easy, as plenty of coaches have been pretty annoying this year. But the benching of Elton Brand, constantly screwing with Lou Williams, teasing us with Marreese Speights, benching Thaddeus Young, starting Willie Green, questionable use of Samuel Dalembert early, low shots and a weird role for Andre Iguodala and an overall crazy rotation give Jordan the nod. The fact he still has his job is somewhat mind boggling, but the Sixers have actually been winning lately. And oddly enough, Allen Iverson has been out, Lou-Will has been getting minutes, Samuel Dalembert is playing and Elton Brand is starting. Weird how that works, isn't it Eddie?"