Could '08-'09 Be The Sixers' Best Shot?
When Elton Brand signed with the Sixers many people, myself included, thought this was the beginning of long stretch of relevancy for hoops in Philly. How could you not? The much-needed low-post threat was added to the mix. The front office was finally making smart moves, both for the team and for the cap. Every move looked golden.
To be honest, all the moves still look great. It's the one move that has yet to be made that has me worried. Andre Iguodala is still sitting out there as a restricted free agent. "So what," you might say. I've said myself that the one-year qualifying offer for Iguodala might be a good thing. And it might. But the fact that he still isn't signed leaves the team in a precarious position. Before we go any further, let's take a look at what we should and should not be reading into the situation. Here's a list of the notable restricted FAs who have yet to sign, and why:
The fact that we haven't even heard they're close to signing Iguodala to an extension leads me to believe they are not. And if they aren't, this team could be in serious limbo this time next season. After the jump we'll examine why... Let's imagine Iguodala signs his qualifying offer and becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. This is what the Sixers roster will look like after the season, with approximate cap numbers in parens after each player:
So, probably somewhere near $13M in cap space, if they renounce both Miller and Iguodala, who would both be unrestricted free agents. Until Iguodala and Miller sign with another team or are renounced they'd be over the cap and unable to do anything. They would have Bird Rights for both players, meaning they could go as far over the cap to re-sign each as they needed to. But, what if they can't? What if Andre Miller and Iguodala don't want to return to Philly? If that happens, where exactly is this team headed, as currently constructed? Assuming they lose both players early enough in free agency to become players in the UFA and RFA markets, the won't have enough to replace both guys. Not to mention the fact that it doesn't look like much back court help will be available via free agency (Ben Gordon, Mike Bibby, Raymond Felton, Rip Hamilton [ETO]). They'd be in the same daunting situation with Iguodala for a sign-and-trade as they are this season (only able to take back 50% of his first-year salary). A sign-and-trade with Miller would be easier because it's doubtful that he'd get much of a raise over his $10M salary this season, but when you're talking about an unrestricted FA, the sign-and-trade is highly unlikely. The more I think about it, the more crucial I think it is to get Andre Iguodala to sign on the dotted line for a healthy extension. The Andre Miller situation is going to be the drama of next Summer, the last thing we need is to worry about both Andres bolting town and leaving huge holes the team cannot fill. Even if the worst-case scenario happens, and Iguodala can't make the transition to SG, if you have him signed you can trade him and get equal money back in the deal. It seems odd to say that signing a guy to a $75M contract you may regret is the fiscally prudent move, but I really think that's the situation the Sixers find themselves in right now. Whatever is standing in the way of Iguodala signing an extension needs to be worked out. Without him under contract this whole thing could unravel next Summer. 23 Comments | Leave a commentLeave a commentLatest Posts• The Rockettes Come To Town • Iguoadala As Playmaker • Welcome To The Network • Stefanski Does the Legwork • I Hate Texas • Can They Salvage the Trip? • Dirk Is Still A Bright, Shining Star • The Trip Continues In Dallas • The Celtics Deserve Stephon Marbury • Ending On A High Note • Closing Out 2008 • Four Factors, New WorksheetSearchBlogs in The NetworkSixers BlogsPassion and Pride Sixers 4 Guidos Liberty Ballers Recliner GM | ||||||||||||||||
Brian, no offense, but I can't buy any of that. According to the print media, the first year of Elton's new contract is reported to be in the neighborhood of $14.5 million. After that he'll receive an .08% raise, which puts his salary at, approximately, $15.7 million, not $19.4.
Right now, with the signing of Rush, and Ivy, I estimate we're about $1.5 million over the cap, and that includes both Iggy and Lou's cap holds, which is $9.9 million combined. If Iggy plays out his option and leaves, the sixers will pick up $5 million in additional cap space. Andre Miller's contract this year is over $11 million; if he leaves, that amount will also disappear from our cap. And finally, the salary cap should increase again next year. This year the increase was over $3 million.
On the credit side, we know that salaries will go up on our current contracts, draft picks need to be paid, and there are additional expenses that I'm not aware of right now. But, in spite of this, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up being $13 million under the cap.
The only question is, can Lou take over the point. I'm a big fan of Lou Williams, I think he has a lot of talent and will excel at the position, once he gets his feet wet. So, for me, I'd love to see the team go into free agency looking for a two-guard with a $13 million budget.
I think the 19.44 is a typo. He meant 14.94 I believe. The contract is 5 years 78-82 million. Starting at 13.8ish.
It was just a mistake. Nothing major steve.
follow up...
Elton Brand - 76ers - 5yrs $79,795,500
2008-2009 - $13,757,844
2009-2010 - $14,858,472
2010-2011 - $15,959,100
2011-2012 - $17,059,728
2012-2013 - $18,160,356
That is his believed contract.
Thanks Joe.
My math was off on the Brand contract, but my point remains the same. If they don't sign Iguodala we're looking at maybe enough cap space to sign one free agent from another team to fill two holes on the roster, assuming Iguodala and Miller bolt. We're also looking at Lou Williams and nothing else in the backcourt on the roster.
Next year's free agent class isn't looking loaded at either guard position either. If Iguodala is a UFA, the best we might be able to hope for is Ben Gordon at the 2 and Lou at the 1 in '09-'10.
The main point being, this is the only year we're guaranteed to have the two Andres together with the rest of that young core. If they don't get an extension done w/ Iguodala it could be the last year we have w/ either Andre and there probably won't be enough cap space/available talent next Summer to provide anything but a downgrade to the roster.
Either way, with a core of young guys in Lou, Thad, Iggy (hopefully), Smith and Speights we should be a solid team for a long, long time.
I think the question is what do they do if that young core doesn't include Iguodala. Does a starting lineup of Dalembert, Brand, Thad, Green and Williams interest anyone? Even if they could get Ben Gordon or Rip Hamilton to start at the 2, would that team be better than the one we're going to see in '08-'09.
I updated the post to reflect more accurate cap numbers, thanks Joe.
Yes. On talent (I don't know about financials), I would do Iguodala for Hamilton today.
Wouldn't work financially this season. If Miller and Iguodala walk, and Hamilton opts out (ESPN says he has an ETO, HoopsHype does not). Then the Sixers would have enough cap space, presumably, to sign a 31 year-old Hamilton.
They could trade Andre Miller for him, straight up, right now. Sign and trade won't work next year unless Rip opts out and signs a deal for less than $7M in the first year, which is not going to happen.
On talent, he may be a better fit this season, that's true, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and plays no D. I'd rather have Iguodala on the upside than Rip as he fades into the sunset.
Yeah, I'm not specifically advocating a Hamilton trade, but I have always felt that parting ways with Iguodala and finding a shooting guard who was more of a traditional scorer would be the best thing for us. We have all the defense we need right now with or without him.
I'm not sure you can ever have too much defense, but I see your point. My only argument is that I don't think we've seen the best of Iguodala yet. If he continues to improve, we could have a guy capable of scoring 20+ on less than 15 shots/game. Shooting a high percentage, rebounding, distributing and playing great D. I think that's more valuable than an offensive-minded two who plays little to no D, and I also think that type of player is going to give you a better shot in the playoffs than a guy like Redd or Hamilton.
I would love to see the sixers sign Iggy..but if he walks he walks. I remember reading that the sixers have a TON of upcoming draft picks over the next 5 years. I feel pretty good with Stefanskis ability to bring in talent. Im also not so sure the sixers wouldnt be better with rip hamilton instad of iguodala next year. Hes not as good of a defender but he can light it up and tire out the other teams 2 guard.
I don't think they have any extra picks left at this point. They sent Utah's pick to Minnesota in the deal to clear cap space for Brand. Anyone else know of any future picks they've picked up?
I still think it's doubtful that Rip would opt out. If he did, I think it would be silly to give him a long term deal for the type of money he's going to want.
Ben Gordon might be a better fit to this team than Iguodala. Especially since he's around the same age. If we had Rip instead of Iggy, we suddenly become a worse version of the Celtics. A worse big three and three old players. Miller at 31, Brand at 29 and Rip at 30 resemble Garnett, Allen and Pierce. Young and Dalembert resemble Rondo and Perkins slightly just in terms of skill level and age. At least with Iguodala, we have a ton of upside and are still viewed as a fairly young team.
Here's the thing with Gordon, long-term. You absolutely cannot have a starting backcourt of Lou and Gordon. No one to guard opposing guards with any size. If Miller doesn't come back, you cannot win with those two at the guards.
I'm enjoying this Iguodala for Rip discussion.
If Iggy could develop a jumper, I'd be all for taking him off your hands.
Took Rip 8 years in the NBA seemingly to develop a 3 point shot, so hey there is still some hope.
Take a look at this comparison, Hamilton and Iguodala through their age 24 seasons:
link
Look at just their 4th years. I think people forget players develop substantially aftre their 4th season in the league...
He'd probably be a better fit w/ Detroit right now, they have enough other guys who can knock down the three.
If you'd make that trade, I'd make that trade.
I think I'd even throw in a future pick too just to get Rip and his mask off the team
Hey Brian,
This probably a pointless question, but...
If the Cavs can't resign Delonte West, do you think they'd consider a sign-and-trade with us? Would they take Willie Green off our hands if we included Royal Ivey in the deal? The salaries would work, from what I can tell. They'd be getting two half decent guards in the deal and we'd be getting a quality backup point guard to complement our other reserve guards (i.e. LouWill and Kareem Rush). Would you make that trade if you were Ed and it was out there?
I doubt they'd be interested in Willie, and a sign-and-trade would be difficult due to the base-year issue. That being said, yeah, I'd love to have West, I just don't see it happening.