When the clock strikes midnight tonight some of the best players in the league will officially become homeless. Over the coming weeks, contenders will be made, top seeds decimated and when the dust settles, we could wind up with a more balanced league (East vs. West). The latest big name to enter the fray:
A quick note on Nowiitzki first. With Nowitzki dipping his toes in the free agency market, Mark has to be absolutely kicking himself. Take Dirk's number off Dallas' books, then pull the plug on Erick Dampier and Dallas is probably $3 or $4M below the cap. In other words, they can't offer more than the MLE to a free agent. But if you rewind the clock to the trade they made with Washington last season for Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stephenson and, well, things could've been a lot different. If Cuban hadn't made that trade (a trade that bulked them up enough to get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs), Dallas would be sitting pretty with over $19M in cap space. I have a feeling Dirk will be returning to Dallas on a max deal, but if he walks, Cuban is going to be stuck with a lottery team with the ageless Jason Kidd and Caron Butler carrying the load. It's great to have an owner willing to spend for a winner, but eventually all that spending can come back to bite you.
Anyway, let's take a look at the name who will most likely become free agents at midnight, and the teams with cap space to chase them down. Keep a particular eye on the East vs. West divide:
- LeBron James (East)
- Dwyane Wade (East)
- Dirk (West)
- Chris Bosh (East)
- Amare Stoudemire (West)
- Carlos Boozer (West)
- Joe Johnson (East)
Those are the big names, where they wind up matters.
And now the teams with significant cap space:
- Miami
- Chicago
- New York
- New Jersey
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Oklahoma City
Minnesota and Sacramento also have some cap space, but probably not enough for a max deal. I think the Clippers will have trouble luring one of the big names to play in Kobe and the Lakers' shadow. OKC seems more worried about how they're going to afford their own guys when they hit free agency than adding a big piece. Washington was on this list, but they've been selling their cap space for what they believe are assets (Hinrich and Yi Jianlian, to this point).
I do believe some of these guys will wind up re-signing with their current teams. Tops on that list are Wade and Dirk. I just don't see them going anywhere. Ultimately, I think more top teams will be hurt by free agency than new contenders will emerge. If any team lands two of LeBron, Wade and Bosh, they immediately become contenders. If someone gets all three, we're talking about prohibitive favorites to win the championship for the next five seasons. Players like Dirk and Amare probably don't turn a bad team into a really good team, but they do hurt the very good teams they were on in the West. Boozer's absence will hurt Utah, but I think Sloan will piece together another 50-win season out there.
At the end of the day, I think the floor in the Eastern Conference will be raised, and one true contender will possibly be replaced by two. New York and New Jersey will improve, but barring a miracle LBJ signing, I don't see either as a legit contender this year. I see the ceiling for the Knicks as a first-round playoff loss for the foreseeable future. New Jersey has a pretty nice core of players, if they can land the right guy, they could be on the upward trend, but I don't think they'll get there this season. I do believe the Bulls will be legit contenders for this season and beyond. Miami is a wild card. Wade re-signing there seems to be a foregone conclusion, as does Pat Riley's return to the bench as head coach. The question is, who will they add to the mix. If LeBron and Bosh land in Chicago, I'm thinking it'll be either Boozer or Amare in Miami, and possibly David Lee as well. Does that make for a legit contender? Hard to say. They'd be better than they were this season, but I'm not sure they're elite.
Out West, you could see a precipitous drop from the numbers two and three seeds from last season. As far as elite teams with serious legitimate title aspirations, what was the number this season? Seven, maybe? Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, Los Angeles, possibly Dallas, Denver and Utah?
When the dust settles, how many will there be? Chicago or Miami, Lakers, Celtics (maybe), Orlando, Denver on their last legs, Dallas if they keep Dirk, Phoenix if they keep Amare, some unknown team?
Maybe we wind up with another team or two, probably in the East. Some cellar dwellers in the East will at least reach respectability, but one elite team is probably going to nosedive (Cleveland) and a middle-of-the-pack team is probably looking at very good odds in the lottery (Toronto).
I don't see the East coming out of this free agency bonanza as the stronger conference. I see them shuffle the deck a bit, and I don't think there will be as many teams to kick around, but overall, most of the strong teams in the West will remain so. What does this mean for the Sixers? Well, there's a very good chance the Nets will leapfrog them this season. The Knicks I'm not so sure about (a team built around Joe Johnson and Boozer doesn't scare me). In the Atlantic, I'd say Toronto is definitely going to be worse off than they were last season and Boston probably won't fall that far.
This was mostly an exercise in futility. No one, not even Stephen A. Smith, knows where these guys are going to wind up. There are going to be more losers than winners among the teams with cap space. There are going to be some big losers in terms of teams losing talent. My bet for the biggest winner when the dust settles is Chicago. The team to take the hardest hit will probably be Cleveland. It could be a long, long time before that team (and city) recovers from losing LeBron.
What do you guys think? Is the built in advantage of playing in the East going to disappear this season? Also, check out the
home page to see the updated team roster with salaries.
A couple of notes.
Paul Pierce is supposedly opting out also. He is past his prime but he is still a pretty big name and a good player.
On the Dirk front, I agree he will probably go to Dallas. However, looking at his playing strengths, he'd probably be a better fit with LeBron than Bosh (other than his age / background). He is a really good 3 point shooter (and a very good shooter overall) so his man will have to get out of the paint to cover him. This would give LeBron more room to do one of his drive / dunk, drive / layup or drive and dish maneuvers. He has better defensive efficiency numbers than Bosh too (although he is nearing the age where one can get a steep decline).
I don't know how this will affect the competitive balance other than I think one team (probably Miami or Chicago) will turn into a prime (if not THE prime) contender and Cleveland could really fall off if LeBron goes. I think the Knicks and the Nets will get shafted on the choice free agents like Jerry Krauss's Bulls did in his last years (after MJ and Pippen left).
I envision a clandestine meeting at an outdoor cafe between Dirk and the nets new owner wooing him to defect. It seems Orlando may change drastically also but with trades and if Toronto does the Laker sign-n-trade [Odom & Bynum] for Bosh they may pass us also.
So if 3 big names all agree to sign well below market value in order to put together an elite squad- is that collusion? Or more accurately, is that breaking the rule?
How about if part of the deal is the understanding that Nike will build a campaign around that group?
BTW:
Lebron: Nike
Bosh: Nike
JJ: Nike
Wade: Changed to Nike 2009 after years with Converse
Rose: ADIDAS
Harris: ADDIDAS
PP: Nike
Dirk: Nike
Boozer: Nike
Amare: Nike
Yao: Reebok
Wade is technically Jordan Brand, BTW
Jordan brand is still nike thought isn't it? Nike is the parent company?
Kinda sorta. It is its own company where Nike is a majority partner, I believe, and ad campaigns don't really overlap, from what I recall.
Rick Kamla
From the last post, I wonder why some of you were killing this guy. Unlike your idol Rick the dick Bucher this guy knows his shit.
As far as Dirk, I can see him on the knicks and there ole style defense.
I killed Rick Kamla because he is a moron. He said giving Rudy Gay max money is a no brainer. I'm not someone that gets easily annoyed, but Kamla and all his tool phrases drive me up a wall. He is the definition of an overzealous dope basketball fan that only looks at PPG and "totally sick dunks" as a measure of skill.
I'm not going to say I'm a huge Bucher fan, but the guy at least works for a real network. I think he is better by a very wide margin.
•LeBron James- Staying in Cleveland
•Dwyane Wade- Staying in Miami
•Dirk- Staying in Dallas
•Chris Bosh- going to Chi, NYK or Miami
•Amare Stoudemire- going to NYK
•Carlos Boozer- going to Chi, NYK or Miami
•Joe Johnson- going to Dal, or Chi
I would laugh my ass off if NY ended up signing Boozer and Joe Johnson as their major FAs.
amare + joe johnson is 2005 phx...without nash
Yup.
I think Dirk + Joe Johnson is something D'Antoni could probably work with. That team has a chance to get to the playoffs.
T. Douglas
J. Johnson
D. Galinari
D. Nowitzki
?
With Chandler off the bench. That's pretty much all they have, right? He'd have to find a center for the minimum, or I guess he could go with this linep:
Douglas
Johnson
Chandler
Galinari
Nowitzki
They'd be atrocious defensively, probably better than we are at PF and C, though, on both ends of the floor.
Funny,
I think if they had kept their roster they would have had a better chance at beating the Lakers this year:
C: Robin Lopez
PF: Amare Stoudemire
SF: Shawn Marion
SG: Joe Johnson
PG: Steve Nash
That team would have no shot at beating a healthy laker team...marion is a shell of what he used to be and no one on that team is stopping Bryant or Gasol
They went to 6 games last year and 2 of those games were really close. Are you telling me that Jason Richardson is a better defender than Shawn Marion?
I really like this team, i agree with you a little bit, but id give marion like 20 mins max. it all comes down to the PHX bench...much more important than it was in 2005, as they are all older
Here's a good look at how much cap space each team will have by Larry Coon.
Dirk isn't leaving Dallas, this is a formality (much like Pierce) to max out money before the next CBA. Dallas had hoped to have an agreement in place before he opted out, but it couldn't get done, but they'll get a deal done...he's not going anywhere...neither is pierce.
I'm sure the Knicks will sign someone and be better next year than they were this year...but I'll believe Lebron giving up 30 million dollars in salary guaranteed when I see it
Would you give max money to Pierce? I don't think I would if I were Boston. He'll be 37 with 1000+ games on his legs plus playoffs. He and Dirk both need to give their teams the hometown "discount" to allow them to build winners around them.
Interestingly enough (although I think it's ridiculous), ESPN insider has Denver thinking about moving Carmelo so they aren't left with nothing if he leaves next summer. If...IF...there is any truth to that, that is a huge, unforeseen move that could really swing power around. Does a team like Portland have the pieces to trade for Melo? Would Melo like to be a Sixer? We could offer the Philly Max next summer...
I don't think Pierce will GET max money - but I think he'll get a 3-4 year deal that might pay him more over all than if he waited untili next off season with the new CBA, and I think Dirk will get the same thing.
The Melo thing that ESPN is spinning makes a certain kind of logical sense, but not a given. The argument is that they have a contract extension for Melo on the table (65 million for like 3 years) right now. Broussard claims if Melo won't sign that extension they would consider trading Carmelo because they don't want to be held hostage like Cleveland this year. The only way that makes sense is if Denver thinks Melo is not worth more than the 65 million over 3 years...but with the new CBA coming and all the danger signs, Melo would be a fool not to take it because he could get the shaft from the new CBA and maybe only get 35-45 million (max) over a 3 year deal...who knows.
The logic makes a sort of sense, if Melo refuses to sign the extension and if Denver feels that 3 years 65 million is the most they would ever offer him. If Carmelo says no, then looking to trade him when teams can get him for a full season, use him at the trad edeadline and or a sign & trade (or just contract extension) next season makes more sense then holding onto him untl next off season when they have much less leverage
The Philly max next season is about $5M right now, thanks to the Dalembert trade.
If we traded for him this summer and re-signed him is what I was implying.
are the sixers going to go over the luxury tax for Carmelo Anthony?
Aside from Iguodala, what else are you willing to give up to get him on the sixers roster, cause I'm betting a straight up swap doesn't work for Denver. And I'm guessing guys like lou williams and willie green don't interest them
Throw in Lou as well. That gets it done. Or Thad can go. Really is there anyone outside of Jrue and Turner that you wouldn't send in a trade for Melo? Send Hawes...if it gets it done, go for it. Is Denver going to do much better than Iguodala and Lou- both entering their prime years? I doubt it.
You think Denver wouldn't get a better offer for Carmelo Anthony than Lou and Andre Iguodala?
Iguodala is not as good as Anthony, and Lou doesn't make up the difference, even close
Do you ever get fair trade value for a superstar?
You get better than Iguodala and Lou Williams (which is why I specifically said NOT to include Lou Williams and Willie Green in any trade scenario you'd expect me to take seriously)
If Carmelo was on the block, other teams would make better offers because they ahve better assets without gutting their teams at the same time
Sixers most realistic offer would probably be Iggy/Thad/Speights and a future first (lets say top 5 protected). I would think another team could make a better off than that though
Like I said before...I think it would be a ridiculous move to trade Carmelo unless he demanded one. But a defensive stopper with a good slashing game along with a spark off the bench to run along with JR Smith. I don't know...it's something for them to think about.
Carmelo wouldn't be traded to the Sixers for anything less than Iguodala+Jrue+2011 1st.
You could probably substitute Turner for Jrue.
Otherwise, it's not happening.
I'd offer "Iggy + anyonebutJrue + 2011 first" for Melo without hesitation. Our best "anyonebutJrue" is either Lou, Thad, Speights, or Hawes... and I'm guessing Denver would want either Lou or Speights... hopefully the former.
So, Iggy, Lou, and next year's first for Melo. That's not unreasonable.
If we traded and re-signed him we could offer him the max-max. We'd have his bird rights.
Let's not forget the luxury tax ceiling :)
I think Comcast would fall in love with just having Melo on the roster and would run right over the tax. Seats would fill up and beers would sell once again in the Wells Fargo Center, or whatever it will be called.
Sure they would...
Philadelphia basketball fans show up when you win, and by winning I mean getting out of the first round being a serious player for the ECF, adding melo (and removing Iguodala and whomever else you have to remove) wouldn't make them contenders because you still have that giant gaping unaccounted for hole in interior defense and no bench players who play defense or do much else than score on layups...it's still a pretty flawed roster swapping out a couple players (including one of your best) for Melo (who is better, but still won't solve many of the issues on the roster)
More importantly, I don't think he'd want to play here...
I 100% agree with your last point...he wouldn't.
Well John...looks like we'll be looking elsewhere for the Sixers next big splash.
Until there is new ownership I wouldn't expect a big splash unless one considers lottery luck a big splash...
Splashes don't get much bigger than Nocioni and Hawes.
You've got a point - I mean biggest move of the off season by far, no team will top taht
What is Carmelo's %body fat? I wonder if people would take him more seriously if he lost some weight, wore less baggier clothes, got rid of his cornrows, and wore less gear.
You mean uptight racist white people might take him more seriously?
The pudginess is a legit concern.
He's not too pudgy anymore. Showed a willingness the last 2 years to play a little more of a physical game. Look at Melo from 3 or 4 years ago and look at him now, he's in much better shape.
I will be very interested in seeing what the Bobcats receive for Tyson Chandler this offseason if they do indeed trade him, as has been rumored. Similar numbers, age, and contract to Dalembert although more injury prone. Should provide a good benchmark on whether Stefanski got completely snowed on the Dalembert deal or just mildly. Also, I'm sure Sammy's contract would have been a big asset in a potential Carmelo deal (Dalembert, Igoudala, future #1 pick for Carmelo & Birdman?) I'm sure there will be better offers for him though than that. If LeBron snubs Chicago, what about Deng and Gibson for Melo?
Sam's contract had a trade kicker - I don't know if Chandlers did - and the perception around the league (rightly or wrongly) is that when healthy Chandler is better than Sam.
Doc Rivers will coach in Boston next year
We got nudi Ebi for our summer league squad. Very talented player. Also got one Devan Hardin who hasw a chance to be a very good defensive center in the league. I predict a very good showing for him in orlando and a roster spot in november.
I remember Cedric Simmons is a guy who we were reallly considering drafting the year we picked Carney. Very Athletic,Shotblocking type. Hardin has a chance so does Simmons to be the 12th or 13th man.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cedric-Simmons-609/
Simmons looks like a good invite.
Does anyone really think the Sixers are going to keep any of these guys? They have 13 under contract and they're in cheap mode. I think they just keep the two open roster spots.
It probably depends where the exact tax number falls. they might still be able to add a minimum guy under the tax.
I could see them keeping Hardin or Simmons (in that order) if they got signed to a minimum contract with no guarantee. That being said it seems Comcast has been really averse to spending after the Brand fiasco. If he doesn't show some improvement with Collins here maybe they need to buy him out.
I seriously doubt they buy him out w/ another two years after this one on his deal. He's not hurting the team, he's just not helping them nearly as much as he should be for that contract. He's still the best big on the team.
I agree he is the best big on the team.
But his performance for his pay is atrocious. If they buy him out they could save enough to get someone who might be a better than Brand is now without spending anymore long term.
The reason I'd like Brand bought out is his contract seems to be handcuffing them from trying to improve the team more (since they are in cost cutting mode). If we had a Cuban or Dolan type they'd spend anyhow cap be damned but that isn't going to happen unless the team improves to contender status (if then). I don't think trading him will get rid of the problem as we'll just get someone back who is another problem and knowing Stefanski that person will have a contract that lasts even longer.
If Comcast wasn't so stingy lately they actually can save money against the cap if they could get Brand to buy out at a reduced rate (see if he'd take 50% since he'd get it now instead of waiting a bunch of years).
The rate he (or anyone would count) would be the buyout over the proportional rate he would have with the original contract:
http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q62
Yeah, can you give me a reason why Brand would accept a buyout and basically give back $25M over the next three seasons?
When buyouts happen, they don't save a significant amount of money and teams rarely buy out more the remainder of the final season of a deal.
Brian,
If Brand thinks he can get another decent payday from some other team (especially a contender) he could replace the salary he'd lose on the buyout and he could get the other half (the actual buyout) up front. This is the scenario Vince Carter got when he tanked up in Toronto and Alonzo Mourning did with the Nets and they were both bought out and then got another salary. The difference there is they had something left in the tank and other teams knew it.
Carter was traded to the Nets, he was not bought out. Mourning was traded to the Raptors in the Carter deal and he was indeed bought out of the remainder of his contract, then signed for the veteran's minimum with the Heat. This wasn't an example of a guy who had a lot left in the tank and every knew it, though. This was a guy who struggled to get back from a kidney transplant. Toronto said he wasn't healthy enough to be playing and that's why the bought him out.
There is no precedent for a guy like Brand being bought out with this much time left on his deal.
I didn't realize Carter got traded and I thought Mourning had something left. If you make a mistake on a FA signing you are really screwed. It would be good if when they do the new CBA they make it so every X years you can do buyouts so you can get out of your mistakes.
Ed Stefanski wholeheartedly agrees with you.
If Comcast weren't so stingy they would have just kept Sam and let him expire and then had cap room next summer.
It's a year to year dance
John,
The scenario you describe is exactly what I wanted them to do. Taking Nocioni back was (to me) a foolish move as his salary won't clear at the end of this year. I didn't like Hawes either but at the end of the year we could let him go (not renew) and free his salary.
http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/06/30/mikhail-prokhorov-jay-z-manhattan-billboard-literally-stares-do/
Collins on the Sixers' young backcourt of Holiday and Turner: "I don’t ever like to give age as an excuse,. You look at the Oklahoma City Thunder, with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and those guys. You saw the improvement in that team this year (from 23 wins in 2008-09 to 50). I think sometimes youth is a good way to say we have an excuse to lose. I don’t ever want that."
"I don't like to give age as an excuse...(but I will when/if things go wrong next year)"
Show the man some respect, according to your bio he was a Sixer 27 years before you started rooting for them.
PF Vernon Goodridge has replaced big man DeVon Hardin on the Sixers' summer league roster. Goodridge played at La Salle (finishing in 2008-09) after leaving Mississippi State.
Any word why? Was he injured?
Don't know. Let me see if I can find out.
Was told Hardin’s rights are still held by the Thunder, who made him the 50th pick in the 2008 draft, so the NBA wouldn't allow him to join the Sixers. Hardin played in the CBA last season.
Interesting
Hi Tom,
How many are they allowed to carry on their active roster? I thought it was 15. I perused their current roster from ESPN and they have 17 and none is DeVon Hardin. This is quite disappointing as I figured he would have stood a decent shot to make the team (and be a contributor).
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/teams/roster?team=okc
Hardin isn't on their active roster, he's not under contract, but you can own a players draft rights without them being on your roster.
Ricky Rubio is not on the t'wolves roster
Tiago Splitter is not on the spurs roster
but if they want to come to the nba - they have to negotiate with the teams that own their draft rights
Hi John,
How long do their (draft) rights hold? I was under the impression that the foreigner's rights (Rubio, Splitter) held as they could say they still were under contract with their overseas team (never left their old league). Hardin was here in the US and he was not able to crack their roster.
Someone wrote about this earlier today - and I don't know the exact rules - but it's not as simple as foreigner rights (i don't believe) something to do with where they play - if a guy is drafted and plays in europe then he's still belongs to the team - according to his wikipedia page, hardins professional career has only been in europe (no mention of CBA)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeVon_Hardin#Pro_career
These summer league guys don't have true contracts. They're just trying to impress enough to be invited to veterans camp here or somewhere else.
They only have 13 on the real roster, counting Turner, Nocioni and Hawes.
Played 36 games for Tulsa of NBDL last season, starting 29. He averaged 6 points and 4.5 boards.
There seems to be an increase in the 'news' of people going to Miami. This has a sign and trade for Miami to get Bosh for Beasley and parts and supposedly has LeBron recruiting Ray Allen for Miami.
http://network.yardbarker.com/NBA/article_external/Source_Allen_May_Take_Less_To_Join_Heat_Big_3/2822049
...so is there any combination of signings that could happen that do NOT leave Orlando as the best team in the East?
If LeBron goes to the Bulls they have a good supporting cast already and they'd probably be better than Orlando. Anything else would be gravy.
If LeBron, Bosh and Wade (staying) go to Miami they would possibly be better. If they get Ray Allen they'd be better still. Though they'd have no depth.
I don't think the Knicks or Nets would pass Orlando. At least this year.
Orlando also has a decent shot at losing Redick who has turned into a decent role player for them.
IMO these teams would be better than Orlando:
Chicago + Lebron + big(Bosh, Amare or Boozer)
NJ above
Miami + Lebron + Bosh + Allen
Is Orlando even that good?
I can't believe Richard Jefferson opted out. Things that great never happen to the Sixers. Hope the Knicks wind up signing him.
I just put up a post on reclinergm echoing the same sentiment.
$14M cap space off the books.
Kapono loves it here in Philly.
Nocioni has a team option for next year but I'm sure 7.5M is a small price to pay for toughness.
Willie and Kapono both had player options.