Thad Young has been a disappointment through 13 games. The Princeton offense, or the version the Sixers have been running to be fair, has not been kind to Thad or his stat line. After the jump, we'll take a look a closer look at his numbers and try to figure out what about the PO is making offense harder for the kid.
Before we jump into Thad, here's a quick look at the team's advanced stats through 13 games.
We've talked about the atrocious rebounding against Memphis enough. The impressive thing here is they came back and beat the Cavs on the boards, percentage-wise. Probably not a coincidence they were in that game with a chance to win, huh?
Back to Thad. My theory heading into the research for this post was that moving Thad to the three, and further away from the hoop, led to a heavier reliance on jumpers. Couple that with the problems he's having on his J, which seem to stem from a breakdown in his form, or several different breakdowns to be more accurate. I'm not sure the numbers back the theory up, though. Check out his shot chart for last season and this year.
2008-2009
2009-2010
I added up the numbers basically dividing the chart into two segments. Inside an outside. The area right at the hoop, and the three areas touching that spot being inside. Everything else being outside. For the most part, jumpers vs. non-jumpers. Here are the results:
I highlighted the relevant data for the argument. The portion of my theory that focused on his jumper not falling holds water, but that was obvious. He's dropped nearly 15% off his field goal percentage on jumpers.
The other part of my theory was dead wrong, however. Even though he's moved to the three (for the record, I have him playing 154 minutes, 3 seconds at the four. 310 minutes, 47 seconds at the three so far this season), he's actually upped the percentage of his shots that come inside from 68.37% last season to 71.5% this year. This good news, it means Thad realizes his shortcomings and he's working to get the ball to the hoop. The problem is, I'm not sure his aggression is really paying dividends.
He's definitely getting to the line more (3.6 attempts/36 minutes this season, 2.6 attempts/36 minutes last season), but he's also turning the ball over at an alarming rate. His TOV rate is up over 50% from each of his first two seasons, from 10.2 to 15.6. I'll try to put those last two stats in perspective for you.
Thad's usage rate this season is 20.2%, so he uses (either by taking a shot or turning the ball over) roughly one out of five possessions. His usage rate last year was 20.5%. To simplify this, let's say the Sixers run 100 possessions with Thad on the floor. Here's the math:
2008-2009
- Out of 100 possessions Thad uses 20.5. Out of those 20.5 possessions, he turns the ball over 2.091 times.
2009-2010
- Out of 100 possessions Thad uses 20.2. Out of those 20.2 possessions, he turns the ball over 3.15 times.
Take the math a step further, he's averaging .6 more made free throws per 36 minutes. It takes the Sixers roughly 53 minutes to run 100 possessions, so his increase in FT rate is gaining the team approximately .88 points per 100 possessions.
I'll spare you some more math, and just tell you that Thad's increased turnovers aren't nearly offset by the increase in trips to the line. In fact, it's costing the team points. Obviously, I'm jumping to a couple of conclusions here that I can't really back up with any stats, namely that the increase in both turnovers and free throw attempts are a direct result of Thad trying to get to the hole more often. I think they're both safe assumptions, though.
Let's tie this all into what we've seen and heard so far this season. Thad just isn't comfortable out there. He doesn't have a firm grasp of the offense and two things happen when you don't know what you're supposed to do. (1) You fall back on what you know works. In this case, getting inside and spinning/dipping around defenders for a hoop. (2) You make mistakes.
This is an age-old argument I've had with my wife since the first time we were in a car together. She says aggressive drivers cause the most traffic accidents. She's wrong, it's indecisive drivers who cause accidents more often than not. If you can't make up your mind, or you're questioning your move as you make it, you're going to hesitate. Your focus is going to be split, and you're more likely to clip someone's fender as you pull into traffic. In Thad's case, if you don't know if you should shoot, pass or dribble, if it isn't second-nature to you what you should do in that situation and you don't know even before you start to make your move, the odds of shuffling your feet before you make your move are increased. It looks to me like this indecision is affecting the mechanics of his jumper, his shot selection, his base when he starts driving, even his handle. In short, it's turning his one strength, efficient offense, into a non-factor for the Sixers when they desperately need him.
The good news? As time passes, he has to gain some comfort. Familiarity hopefully won't breed contempt and he'll start having more conviction in the decisions he's making. The turnovers will drop, hopefully without the FT attempts dipping as well, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that last part. The jumpers should start falling more frequently. Here's the rub, though. The Sixers played a very instinctual style on offense for the first two seasons of Thad's career. There were a lot of one-on-ones and he got the vast majority of his offense either in the open floor, or off plays created by Miller and Iguodala (open shots, backdoor cuts, offensive rebounds, etc.) There's no guarantee that the level of familiarity Thad will eventually acquire with this offense will allow him to be as efficient in it as he was in the "systems" Cheeks and DiLeo ran.
Of course, there's another elephant in the room as well. At what point does Eddie Jordan hit the panic button and move Thad back to the four permanently? My guess is that the clock is ticking and Thad is going to have to get more familiar with this offense before Speights gets back. I can't tell you how big of a mistake I think it would be for Thad and Iguodala to be shifted back to PF/SF, respectively.
Thoughts in the comments, and don't forget
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Great analysis, as usual.
I agree about the indecisive bit. In response to Thad's recent quotes in the press, there was a discussion about IQ vs Hoops IQ. I think what your analysis shows is that Thad is actually overthinking things, its paralysis by analysis. He's become something of the proverbial centipede that can't walk straight anymore. As you've said, its simply a matter of time. But here's hoping Jordan doesn't try to fix a problem by making it worse.
Leave him at the 3, period. He'll figure it out.
Last time I heard that was M. Schmidt overthinking at the plate. The biggest strength in Thad!s game is quickness, in my opinion, and the fact quicker players are guarding him HAS to figure into the equation. He has guys getting to a spot quicker than before so his whirling dirvish moves are more likely going to result in turnovers or offensive fouls,something he needs to adjust to.Using his size more, backdowns, may become part of his arsenal, along with a better J.
I agree with Sean. Leave Thad at the SF (most of the time.)
Going against smaller players will only help him in the post. As for his jumper, he has good form but a slow release. he also has a hard time keeping his balance on his jumper I think he bends to much.) But with more reps his outside shot should improve over his career (but it might take 2-3 years.)
Playing the wing is really outside Young's comfort zone, and it shows. Sort of like moving a 2nd baseman to LF. It requires patience, but we need to give him the 1-2 years to adjust to the wing. Its not they type of thing you pick up in one summer. And I think the patience will pay off.
agree with tk. disagree with deepsixersuede. I still see Young getting to his spots, he's just not finishing when he does. Young's a great matchup for small forwards and his post game is an incredibly tough guard for people his size and smaller. that left handed hook is unblock-able by SF's.
His jumper will come. His handle will improve to where it's not a huge liability. And then he'll be an efficient 20 ppg guy. I have very little doublt.
If we were one piece away from contending, I'd consider trading Thad. But we're not, and I'm not giving up on a 21 year old future 20 ppg scorer to shuffle the chairs on the titanic and maybe squeak out 45 wins.
I agree with both Suede and Derek.
While I think Thad is still getting to spots, he isn't getting to them as cleanly as he has against slower, less athletic defenders.
That added pressure/contest along with him having to speed up his moves a bit are the contributing factors to his lower finishing rate AND the increased regularity of traveling calls.
His increased turnover rate can be directly attributed to more travel calls on his initial moves. He has to be quicker to get by SFs on the perimeter than he does PFs. He is trying to go quicker in games before his skills (handle and footwork) have caught up.
And that's on top of my belief that he's just soft in general and tends to avoid/shy away from contact.
"While I think Thad is still getting to spots, he isn't getting to them as cleanly as he has against slower, less athletic defenders.
That added pressure/contest along with him having to speed up his moves a bit are the contributing factors to his lower finishing rate AND the increased regularity of traveling calls."
Except that he really hasn't been less efficient on either post-ups or isolation plays. He's shooting 52.9% off post-ups and 46.7% off isolations.
(those are from 47.4% and 43.8% last year, respectively).
There's two reasons he's not scoring as much / not as efficient:
- Jump shots. He's shooting 37.4% on jump shots this year, only 28.6% on short jump shots ( - Less transition opportunities. Last year Young got 17% of his field goal attempts in transition, in which he shot 63.3%. So far this year he's only getting 9% of his field goal attempts in transition.
In the half court he's actually only slightly less efficient this year than last year. He shot 46.1% in the half court and turned the ball over 10.2% of the time last year. This year he's shooting 44.2% in the half court and turning the ball over 7.6% of the time.
He's mainly turning the ball over more because he's trying to do more (his assists have also nearly doubled) and because more of his attempts are in the half court. His % of possessions where he commits a turnover is actually down, and his half court efficiency is nearly equal to what it was last year, the majority of the difference in jump shots, not off isolations or post moves.
If it were a drop in efficiency on those plays, I would be concerned that the move to the 3 is the major factor, but it's not. It's on spot-up jump shots that's decreasing his half-court efficiency, and I expect that to return to his career norms. I don't think his decrease in spot-up efficiency is going to stay as bad as it is, nor do I think it's a result of moving to the 3 (he's not taking more jump shot attempts).
More stats. His offensive shot distribution hasn't really changed all that much.
Broken down into 3 categories of shot attempts: jump shots, finishes at rim (non post-ups), post-ups.
post-ups:
Last year 9% of his fga's in the half court were on post-ups. He converted on 47.4%.
This year 12% of his fga's in the half court are on post-ups. He's shooting 46.7%
finishes at rim (non post-ups):
Last year 41% of his half-court fga's were on finishes at the rim (non-pu). He shot 56%.
This year 47% of his attempts are on finishes around the rim, and he's shooting 52.6%.
jump shots:
Last year 49% of his half court attempts were jump shots. He shot 38%.
this year 41% of his half court attempts are on jump shots, and he's shooting 26%.
So he's shooting LESS jump shots and is finishing at the rim MORE and at virtually the same efficiency.
Jump shot breakdown:
2008-2009:
Short (less than 17'): 39%
Medium (17' to 3pt line): 40.7%
3pt: 34.9%
2009-2010:
Short: 27%
Medium: 21.4%
Long: 25.9%
"In the half court he's actually only slightly less efficient this year than last year. He shot 46.1% in the half court and turned the ball over 10.2% of the time last year. This year he's shooting 44.2% in the half court and turning the ball over 7.6% of the time."
Can you break this down further, I'm not sure I'm understanding the stat. So of the half-court possessions he uses (half court defined as 17 seconds or fewer left on the shot clock?), he turns the ball over only 7.2% of the time. The rest of his turnover happen in transition?
"Can you break this down further, I'm not sure I'm understanding the stat. So of the half-court possessions he uses (half court defined as 17 seconds or fewer left on the shot clock?), he turns the ball over only 7.2% of the time. The rest of his turnover happen in transition?"
He turns the ball over 19% of his transition opportunities.
Yikes.
(last year was only 9.2%)
Man, that's horrible.
Probably a little too early for the hotspots chart but it's something I would keep an eye on. Particularly, which side of the floor his shots come from. I envision teams forcing him to his weak right side much more and really jumping on his left to take it away.
He will need to adapt. He is the definition of a left-hand bandit. And if I were him I would watch some film of Ginobili the king of the left-hand bandits for how to adjust while playing with a less adroit off hand.
Ginobili is still much, much weaker going right BUT what he has done is go right and then find creative ways to get back left and middle to finish strong comfortably with his dominant scoring hand. That helps him tremendously on the perimeter too because he can mix up his moves more, confident he can return to his strong side for higher percentage finishes.
Hopefully Thad develop a better right hand but even if he doesn't he can be more effective if he takes some notes from Ginobili's offensive repertoire.
One concern I have is that for all of his efficiency, Thad has always looked off balance and sometimes sloppy and out of control. He is great when put in his comfort zone. He also seems to have a knack of finishing despite spinning and falling.
I wonder if all of his off balance moves will result in injuries. And I wonder how much more under control he will be as he cleans up his handle.
Ginobli is a perfect comparison, becasue he also sometimes seems to be spinning out of control- but less so as he has matured and adapted to the NBA game. Hopefully Thad will make as good of a progression over the next few years.
And also you have to hope he'll be able to stay on the court better than Ginobili.
Agree. Thad always seems off balance and that can lead to injuries.
I totally agree with him looking off-balance and to me, that's the key. The real area of concern is when he's making eight different moves (spin, cross, step-back, etc.) to try and score. There are players who can get away with that, Kobe and even Iguodala on some of his jumpers come to mind, and players who don't because of a deficiency going 1 on 1.
Thad's obvious deficiency is his right hand, because he is a dominant lefty, which is fine. My crazy theory is that he needs to play on the left side more than he has been. Look at 2008-2009 and 3/4 of Thad's hot zones outside of the dunk circle are on the left side. There are also no cold zones on the left. Also, he has more shots in every left zone than the one that corresponds on the right, so he probably developed a comfort zone there. This year every one is pretty much the same and for a guy like Thad, who is a crafty finisher, there needs to be a comfort zone out there. I remember one play at the end of the Memphis game where he spun out of control and lost the ball while trying to get to the left side of the rim from the right wing. I know it may not be definitive, but maybe as a dominant lefty, the left side gets him in a groove.
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