I wish they'd hold the NBA draft lottery the day after the season ended. This period between the final game and the lottery drawing is pure agony. There's only so much research you can do, only so many scenarios you can run. Still, this is the hand we've been dealt, so I decided to tackle some math and break down
as well. Check it out after the jump.
This first exercise is a closer look at the Sixers' odds of moving up in the lottery. The Sixers hold 53 of the 1,000 possible number combinations, meaning right off the bat they have a 5.3% chance at getting the number one pick. The second chart shows their odds of getting the #2 pick, broken down by who gets the first pick. (If the Nets get the #1 pick, 250 combinations are removed and the Sixers have 53/750 for the second pick).
OK, the math gets a little more involved here. The chart below depicts the odds the Sixers will get the number three pick, broken down by who has gotten picks number one and two. The order of the first two picks doesn't matter, only which teams took them. For example, if the Nets and the Timberwolves take picks 1 and 2, in any order, the Sixers will have 53 of 551 remaining combinations.
| Pick #3 Odds |
| Pick 1-2 |
Pick 1-2 |
76ers Odds |
| Nets |
Twolves |
9.6% |
| Nets |
Kings |
8.9% |
| Nets |
Warriors |
8.4% |
| Nets |
Wizards |
8.0% |
| Nets |
Pistons |
7.6% |
| Nets |
Clippers |
7.3% |
| Nets |
Jazz |
7.3% |
| Nets |
Pacers |
7.2% |
| Nets |
Hornets |
7.1% |
| Nets |
Grizzlies |
7.1% |
| Nets |
Raptors |
7.1% |
| Nets |
Rockets |
7.1% |
| Twolves |
Kings |
8.2% |
| Twolves |
Warriors |
7.8% |
| Twolves |
Wizards |
7.4% |
| Twolves |
Pistons |
7.1% |
| Twolves |
Clippers |
6.8% |
| Twolves |
Jazz |
6.8% |
| Twolves |
Pacers |
6.7% |
| Twolves |
Hornets |
6.7% |
| Twolves |
Grizzlies |
6.7% |
| Twolves |
Raptors |
6.7% |
| Twolves |
Rockets |
6.7% |
| Kings |
Warriors |
7.3% |
| Kings |
Wizards |
7.0% |
| Kings |
Pistons |
6.7% |
| Kings |
Clippers |
6.5% |
| Kings |
Jazz |
6.4% |
| Kings |
Pacers |
6.4% |
| Kings |
Hornets |
6.3% |
| Kings |
Grizzlies |
6.3% |
| Kings |
Raptors |
6.3% |
| Kings |
Rockets |
6.3% |
| Warriors |
Wizards |
6.4% |
| Warriors |
Pistons |
6.2% |
| Warriors |
Clippers |
6.0% |
| Warriors |
Jazz |
6.0% |
| Warriors |
Pacers |
5.9% |
| Warriors |
Hornets |
5.9% |
| Warriors |
Grizzlies |
5.9% |
| Warriors |
Raptors |
5.8% |
| Warriors |
Rockets |
5.8% |
| Wizards |
Pistons |
6.2% |
| Wizards |
Clippers |
6.0% |
| Wizards |
Jazz |
6.0% |
| Wizards |
Pacers |
5.9% |
| Wizards |
Hornets |
5.9% |
| Wizards |
Grizzlies |
5.9% |
| Wizards |
Raptors |
5.8% |
| Wizards |
Rockets |
5.8% |
| Pistons |
Clippers |
5.7% |
| Pistons |
Jazz |
5.7% |
| Pistons |
Pacers |
5.7% |
| Pistons |
Hornets |
5.6% |
| Pistons |
Grizzlies |
5.6% |
| Pistons |
Raptors |
5.6% |
| Pistons |
Rockets |
5.6% |
| Clippers |
Jazz |
5.5% |
| Clippers |
Pacers |
5.5% |
| Clippers |
Hornets |
5.5% |
| Clippers |
Grizzlies |
5.5% |
| Clippers |
Raptors |
5.5% |
| Clippers |
Rockets |
5.5% |
| Jazz |
Pacers |
5.5% |
| Jazz |
Hornets |
5.5% |
| Jazz |
Grizzlies |
5.5% |
| Jazz |
Raptors |
5.5% |
| Jazz |
Rockets |
5.4% |
| Pacers |
Hornets |
5.4% |
| Pacers |
Grizzlies |
5.4% |
| Pacers |
Raptors |
5.4% |
| Pacers |
Rockets |
5.4% |
| Hornets |
Grizzlies |
5.4% |
| Hornets |
Raptors |
5.4% |
| Hornets |
Rockets |
5.4% |
| Grizzlies |
Raptors |
5.4% |
| Grizzlies |
Rockets |
5.4% |
| Raptors |
Rockets |
5.4% |
Admittedly, these numbers would be much more relevant if the NBA actually aired the drawing of the number combinations. That way we could use them to calculate the odds on the fly. But this was weighing on my mind and this blog is where I channel my basketball psychosis, so there you go. The simple takeaway from this exercise is as follows.
Obviously, we want the Sixers to win the lottery and get the number one pick. If they don't get the #1 pick, though, we want the Nets to get it. This would give us a 7.1% chance at the #2 pick. If we don't get the #2 pick, we want the Timberwolves to get it, this would give us a 9.6% chance at the number 3 pick. The worst possible outcome for the Sixers would be Toronto and Houston jumping up to grab the top two picks, which would leave us with a 5.4% chance at the number three pick.
OK, now that we've got the math down for the top three, let's dissect Chad Ford's lottery/mock draft machine. Supposedly, Ford has created the rankings that power this machine based on team needs, and more importantly, conversations with decision makers, scouts and sources around the league. Keep in mind that these conversations have necessarily taken place before a single interview, measurement or workout has taken place, so they're obviously subject to change, but as far as I know, Ford's mock is the only one available right now that even takes team needs into account.
With the help of
Chodeburger in the comments yesterday I was able to isolate what each team would do, according to Ford, if they were to wind up in each of the top three slots, and we can extrapolate from there.
The first two picks are simple. According to Ford, every one of the 14 lottery teams would take John Wall at number one and Evan Turner at number two. The variation comes into play with the number three pick, here's how it breaks down for each team:
- Nets: Derrick Favors
- Timberwolves: Favors
- Kings: Favors
- Warriors: Favors
- Wizards: DeMarcus Cousins
- Sixers: Cousins
- Pistons: Cousins
- Clippers: Cousins
- Jazz: Cousins
- Pacers: Favors
- Hornets: Favors
- Grizzlies: Favors
- Raptors: Favors
- Rockets: Cousins
So we've got 8 teams taking Derrick Favors at three and 6 taking DeMarcus Cousins (including the Sixers).
There are only 4 teams who could possibly pick fourth. Ford has the Warriors, Nets, Timberwolves and Kings all taking whichever of Cousins or Favors was not picked at #3.
Only 4 teams can possibly pick fifth. The Wizards, Timberwolves, Warriors or Kings. Ford has all of them taking Wesley Johnson.
Only 4 teams can possibly pick sixth. The Kings, Warriors, Wizards and Sixers. Ford has the Sixers, Warriors and Kings taking Al-Farouq Aminu. The Wizards taking Ed Davis.
Essentially, Ford has the top five in the draft as an absolute lock, no matter what the order is, Wall, Turner, Favors, Cousins and Wes Johnson will all be gone by the #6 pick according to his rankings.
If you dig a little deeper, it looks like outside the top 5, the Sixers rank the next three as follows: Aminu, Ed Davis, Cole Aldrich.
At this point, I'd bet serious money the draft doesn't play out like this. I find it almost inconceivable that every team in the lottery has the exact same top five. Even if they are clearly the five best players in the draft, someone is going to be wowed by a workout. Someone is going to be turned off by an interview. Things will most likely change. If the Sixers wind up at #6, I bet one of the top five drop. Which one is anyone's guess. I'd say most likely Wes Johnson, but there's just no way to tell.
So there you have it. It'd be great if Ford would just post the rankings for each team, since he's obviously put them together, it would've saved me a good deal of effort today, but we got to the bottom of it. I have some thoughts on the number six pick if the top five are gone, but that's for another day.
Huh, Chad Ford must not have a clue on roster personel because i can't see the Clippers, grizzlies, or Twolves drafting a PF/C when all these three teams are loaded in the front court and have glaring holes at SF.
Clippers: Kaman/Griffin/Jordan and there is talk that they'll finally bring over sofoklis schortsanitis
Memphis: Randolph/Gasol/Thabeet/Arthur
Minnesota: Love/Jefferson and there is talk of bringing
over Milicic
When it comes to SF these teams are bare, Well Memphis does have a SF who is a restricted free agent and both the Clippers and Twolves are interested in going after him in the off-season.
i'm actually hoping that either the Clippers or Twolves get that third pick(if we cant get it) because they are most likely to trade down because they are interested in either Wesley Johnson or Aminu who will both be likely available don't in the draft...
Gary that's a very impressive display of knowledge by you, not many people even know who sofoklis schortsanitis is let alone that he might be leaving Greece to come play for the clippers this season. To the big mans credit, he dropped a lot of weight this season and was/is a difference maker for them all season.
Memphis has a need for a PF, Arthur is garbage, Gasol's a center and Thabeet is a project. I don't see them passing on Favors and Cousins, if they jump up to number three.
With the Clips and the T-Wolves, nothing would surprise me. If they got #3 and stayed there, again, I doubt they pass up either of those guys (the T-Wolves especially don't seem to have a problem with drafting multiple guys who play the same position), but I do agree that either of those teams could look to trade down if they get the third pick. And if they want either Johnson or Aminu, one of them will definitely be there at #6, so maybe the Sixers can work a trade w/ them.
So the conditional probabilities say that we should be rooting for the teams below the Sixers to stay where they are, which is what we would have rooted for in any case. Since they don't show the selection process, "wanting" NJ/MIN to finish #1 or #2 (if not the Sixers) is only in theory.
The most dramatic of lotteries was in 2007, when order held for the first 7 spots, but then Portland, Seattle, and Atlanta went into the top 3 right after, leaving the tanking teams (Memphis-Boston-Milwaukee) at 4-5-6. Here's hoping order holds for 8 spots this time ...
Great stuff, Brian. Very appreciative that you took the time to do this.
I personally think when you're a top 5 draft team (for reasons that aren't your best player missed the entire season) you draft the best player available...memphis had a 'good' year this year but they're probably losing rudy gay this off season and zach randolph maybe was only on good behavior so he could get out of memphis.
They got Mayo and Gasol and probably want to build around that, but it's not like they're 'this close' to contending.
I think Ford trying to decide what team is oging to take what player before interviews even start is kind of silly....just rank the prospects....trying to suss out what teams are thinking this early (from hawaii no less) seems an iffy proposition for good basketball minds and journalists, let alone chad ford
"Here's what they do have: $9.8 million in expiring contracts (Reggie Evans and Marcus Banks), DeMar DeRozan and the 13th overall pick in the 2010 draft. Is that enough to fetch a quality wing player? I think it could be, and that player is Andre Iguodala."
Taken from http://www.raptorblog.com/100419a.php
That is an interesting offer if it was made that you'd have to consider for just Iggy alone.
Of course the raptos make that - it's an awesome deal for them
it sucks bloody ass for the sixers
More Cap space for 2011 and two nice pieces to add to their young core.
It's more realistic than a suggested Clippers-Sixers trade of Iggy for a 12 million trade exception, Eric Gordon, and Deandre Jordan.
The Clippers would have to be retarded to give all that for a guy who isn't going to make them a championship team...
The Sixers would have to be retarded to give up Iguodala for a marginal SG who can't shoot, the #13 pick and expiring contracts. That's a garbage offer that does nothing to make this team better.
But hold on - do we still get to keep our pick along with the one from them?
In reality, isn't Andre just a tick above a marginal SG who can't shoot too?
If that deal were actually true, well, there's your outlet.
We could maybe get Udoh first and that Anderson guy for a guard with their pick. And have that much more money freeing up with the rest that is soon coming. And Sam as a favorable trade chip.
The possibilties for change are certainly there, no denying that. Meaning, it may be looked at on the surface as not making this team better, but change in general could really do this team some good.
Treat it like dice and shake it up. You never know, sometimes it just turns up better.
In reality, isn't Andre just a tick above a marginal SG who can't shoot too?
No
Just think - this is the same organization that could be looking at Fesenko and Kyle instead of Sam and Kapono. And even Wesley Matthews instead of Lou/Willie too.
We drafted that Euro dude didn't we? Gave his ass up for Herbert Hill I think.
And we have had near as many coaches as years the last seven or so. Those damn Sixers, I'm telling you....
I agree. Fans often take defensive ability for granted. Then, when you talk about a guy like Lou Williams, they go nuts because the defense isn't there.
This trade would open up a pandora's box of possibilities for the Sixers. DeMar DeRozan is going to get better as he is only 20 years old. We add two pieces from this draft, plus the ton of cap space for 2011. This team would defenitley headed in the right direction.
I'm sorry, but DeRozen just isn't a piece. He didn't show me anything this year.
This isn't a trade to make the team better, this is a trade to get rid of Iguodala. You're gambling that the #13 pick in this draft + whatever FA you can sign next summer will be better than Iguodala, and that's a losing gamble IMO.
If you're trading for cap space, it only makes sense if you can move Brand, which you can't. The only way I'd do this deal is if Toronto's pick wound up being top three, not #13. Then you're really getting two potential pieces in this draft.
Another positive is that Holiday and DeMar DeRozan have known each other for years since they both come come from southern california area.
Yeah, they know each other so it's a better pairing.
Now you're just reaching for things to make this a rational trade when it's just not.
It's unbalanced, proposed by a raptors fan, favors the raptors, and the #9 must go brigade thinks it's awesome - but then again they'd trade #9 for doritos