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Early Predictions: Jason Kapono

Number five in the Early Predictions series is our three-point specialist, Jason Kapono. (Pay no attention to the 31 games, spread over three months, in the middle of the season when Kapono didn't hit a single three, shooting 0/15 from distance over the stretch).
Kapono is extremely hard to predict. On the one hand, if you watched any TNT game Collins did last season, you know what a high premium he places on shooters, and how they open the floor up for everyone else. On the other hand, Collins has paid a tremendous amount of lip service to actually caring about defense. Kapono represents a sort of "damned if you do, damned if you don't," option for Collins. Here's my best guess as to how it'll play out.

  • Minutes: 600
  • Points/game: 6.1
  • Rebs/game: 1.5
  • Ast/game: 0.6
  • Steals/game: 0.2
  • Blocks/game: 0.1
  • TOV/game: 0.4
  • DNPCDs: 35
  • FG%: 48%
  • 3PT%: 43%
If Kapono makes it to opening night on the roster, I think he'll be used mainly as a panic button for Collins. When teams are completely packing in the lane, and Nocioni and Jrue aren't able to shoot teams out of zones, he'll tap Kapono for one purpose and one purpose only.

In the regular rotation, I just don't see a whole lot of minutes for Kapono, but he'll have a handful of games where he just can't miss from three and Collins will be compelled to leave him out there. Plus, someone has to play in garbage time. 600 minutes represents about a 40% drop from last season, which seems about right to me.

Your thoughts in the comments.