We've finally reached the fun portion of the
Early Predictions series. Today, the guy who I believe will wind up being the best player on this team (eventually), and one of the best point guards in the league, Jrue Holiday.
First of all, people who are saying there's a chance Jrue won't be the starting point guard on opening night are out of their minds. Half-way through the season last year, Jrue took the job and it's his, without a doubt. Here are my predictions for Jrue's production :
- Minutes: 2,800
- Points/game: 14.8
- Rebs/game: 3.6
- Ast/game: 7.5
- Steals/game: 1.55
- Blocks/game: 0.35
- TOV/game: 3.0
- FG%: 47%
- 3P%: 39.5%
I've got him at 34 minutes per game, playing all 82, which probably isn't realistic, but there you have it. Given a sensible defensive system and a coach who stresses defense, I think Jrue will demand the heavy minutes with his play (and the thin alternatives to play the point when he's on the pine). He's going to apply intense pressure on the ball and contribute across the board on both ends of the floor.
An offense that isn't predicated on ridiculous dribble-handoffs leading to 22-foot jumpers by Willie Green is also sure to lead to better production by Jrue. Jrue is a pure point guard and a natural at running the break and the pick-and-roll. If his jumper remains as consistent as it was last season, he's extremely close to being the complete package, and he's only 20.
Three areas that need work are taking care of the ball (I expect him to make strides here, but his TOs will still be high), consistency on the defensive end (he was better early than late last season, though playing for Eddie Jordan would wear on anyone) and getting to the foul line. Over the past 31 games, Jrue shot 49% from the floor, 42% from three and did just about everything for the team. Just about because he only averaged 1.62 free throws per 36 minutes. He can use his dribble to get into the lane, he can use his size to post up most PGs, he needs to initiate contact to get to the line and finish.
Your thoughts in the comments, as usual.
I am as high on Jrue as anyone, but I do expect some rough patches this year:
-Only 20
-Turner/Jrue growing pains
-Team lacks good shooters or post scorers to pad his assist numbers. No more Sam to throw oops to.
-Very detail oriented coach. probably good for long term development, but Jrue may be stuck "thinking" instead of playing fluidly/instinctively for a while.
My other concern is the shooting. I think Jrue will be much more effective getting high quality midrange/close shots this year, but I worry if his great 3pt shooting is sustainable. If he shoots over 36% from 3pt then I think we're set long term- but we will have to wait and see.
I don't worry about the coaching at all. I think it's a plus actually. Jrue's dad was coached by Collins at Arizona State and dad and mom thought Jrue how to play. I think Jrue porbably has a better understanding of what the team's in for under Collins than anyone else on the roster. Plus, he's already been under the tutelage of McKie who was a pupil of Collins in his career. So there are several avenues to allow Jrue to understand what Coach wants.
If his numbers look like the above, I will be estatic. I don't think his numbers look that good. Intangibles are a big part of why he's so good. So, I don't think how good he is win be reflected in the stats. If he reaches those numbers and they don't tell the whole story....man!
I tend to agree with Myles on this. Both of Jrue's parents are coaches, he played at UCLA under Howland. I think he's going to do very well under Collins. Also agree w/ TK, the three-point shooting sort of came out of nowhere last year, if I have any major concern, it's that it won't be there this season. The only reason I'm not predicting a dropoff is he improved the percentage through a ton of work and I'm pretty sure he's been working his ass off all summer.
Tk, good point about the coaching; one thing Jordan didn!t do is make a player overthink on offense, Collin's hands on approach may affect Jrue a bit but hopefully it keeps his turnovers down.
I see a slight drop in his shooting percentage and 3 pt. percentage and 12 ppg., 5 reb., and 5 assists. If he continues to be our best shooter in the starting lineup I believe he will be off the ball more than we would prefer early till Turner learns a more R.Hamilton type of game, thus his assists suffer a bit.
Turner's game should never be like Hamilton.
Turner knows how to pass and rebound... and might learn to defend one day.
In his prime, Hamilton was known for moving very well without the ball and hitting an incredibly high percentage of jump shots inside the three-point line. So, I don't think a Rip comparison is far off base for Turner. However, you're definitely correct in suggesting that Turner has other important qualities (e.g. passing ability, rebounding) that Rip couldn't even sniff.
In his prime, Hamilton was known for moving very well without the ball and hitting an incredibly high percentage of jump shots inside the three-point line.
This description fits Collins too. Great midrange shooter.
Love Jrue's height and length at the PG spot. You can't teach those things. In summer league he appeared more determined to get to the basket and to use his size to muscle other guards when he was in the lane. Hopefully he keeps this going. I'm worried about Holiday's ability to sustain his 3pt% too but his form is good and his shot looks pretty soft (I remember him getting shooter's rolls last year even on 3's occassionally) so I think its all a matter of continuing to work at it. Which doesn't seem to be a problem. If Turner gets into shape and acclimates quickly we'll have great height and length at the 1,2, and 3. And watching Iggy play for the National Team (extremely disruptive) we should have some of the best perimeter defense in the League. Praying for a legit Big.
6 players averaged 14.8+ and 7.5+. Only 2 of those 6 shot 40% from 3. A little lofty of expectations for the kid, no ? Especially with two other very good perimeter passers (one of whom, Turner, will have the ball in his hands quite a bit).
I think 14/6 on 36% from 3 is about what I'm hoping for. And I've been a Jrue fan from the beginning.
I'm very bullish on Jrue, and I'm also not so sure Turner is going to have the ball in his hands a great deal. I'm actually hoping he doesn't.
I don't think he will. Collins seems set on establishing him as a true shooting guard(off the ball) first and foremost.
I guess, I hope not, as well.
He is going to be a SG first and foremost. But I think he's going to have the ball in his hands a decent amount for a shooting guard.
and he played PG at OSU mainly out of need.
Did he ever have a roster around him at OSU where he could be the 2 guard and play it in a traditional way (however coach uses them at OSU) or was he always required to do more due to roster limitations?
His very brief ESPN chat (Turners) did allude to getting used to not having the ball as much. Was his high usage rate last year at OSU the norm or unique because of the fact that no one else really was a ball handler on the team?
I would like to know that, too. I understood he only played the point last season.
His usage rate was pretty high the previous season as well (25%+), and I think he actually played a lot of PF as a soph.
I think you can pretty much throw out the college numbers at this point, though. He's not going to be the primary ballhandler and I don't think he's going to be a gunner taking a bunch of bad shots either. He'll probably have a decent usage percentage, somewhere between 20-23%
I think Holiday will be a Top 5 PG in this league in the next few years. He'll also probably be the best defensive PG in this league within the same amount of time.
You know what was the most impressive about Holliday last season? Watching him, you could tell he was just playing. By that, I mean he was going by his natural feel for the game on offense, and on defense he was just doing everything right. If that's him when he's just playing and feeling out the league, imagine how great he'll be when he's comfortable and hit his stride. There isn't a single thing he can't do offensively or defensively, and as a 6'4 PG he can and has guarded Kobe Bryant!
He is everything that delusional Rondo supporters make Rondo out to be, and he's only going to get better. He was a steal.