We now return to your previously scheduled summer series,
Early Predictions. Today's episode features restricted-free-agent-to-be, Thaddeus Young.
Thad, Thad, Thad. What are we going to do with you? By all accounts, Thad is a great kid, a smart kid, a hard worker and a freakish athlete. I don't have any reason to doubt any of those attributes, I think he's had a rough situation since his rookie year, and I think it's almost unfair to judge him based on his development over the first three season when he was surrounded by such chaos. Unfortunately, a decision will have to be made after this season. Before we even get to next summer, though, Doug Collins is going to have to (a) figure out what position Thad is best suited to play and (b) How he's going to get him minutes at that position. Check out my predictions, and I'll have more thoughts below:
- Minutes: 1,500
- Points/game: 10.2
- Rebs/game: 4.3
- Ast/game: 0.7
- Steals/game: 1.1
- Blocks/game: 0.3
- TOV/game: 1.2
- FG%: 49.5%
- 3PT%: 36%
I have faith Collins will get through to Thad. I think we'll see efficient scoring and better rebounding from him this season than we have over the past two. I think his defense will improve as well. Collins is here, and I believe the players believe he's here to stay. I think that stability could do wonders for Thad. The problem is, I don't see where the minutes are going to come from. The trade and apparent promise of minutes to Nocioni cuts directly into Thad's share at both the three and the four. Maybe he plays his way into more minutes as the season wears on, but right now, I have him down for about 20/game, in 75 games played.
Where would a season like this leave us next summer? Tough to say. Maybe it becomes apparent that Thad is best suited to a role off the bench, swinging between the three and the four, but never really able to take the next step at either position. That could mean an extension, but not a contract that will completely kill the team's cap situation long term. Or, maybe he shows just enough to get Stefanski to write a big check. That's a discussion I'm sure we'll be having for the next 11 months or so, in the mean time, I do believe Thad will have a productive season, in less minutes than he's grown accustomed to.
Your thoughts in the comments.
I would be deeply saddened and disappointed if Thad plays so few minutes.
I think he'll get more minutes because he's going to work his way into the starting line-up at the 4, as he does every year. I also believe he improves his thee point percentage greatly by becoming our most reliable catch and shoot player. My guess is he jumps to nearly 40%. Low end 38.5%.
I do think his rebounds suffer because he'll primarily be a jump shooter. However, this benefits the team rebound rate because he pulls the opposing 4 away from the him while our big "smalls" crash the glass.
I don't know, I mean you've got Brand, Speights, Hawes, Nocioni and Thad as rotational players at the 4 and 5. Then you've got Iguodala, Nocioni and Thad at the 3. The minutes are going to be tight.
I think Thad's minutes are probably going to be a huge casualty of the Dalembert trade.
Yeah, that trade is still a head scratcher for me. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the story we're sold is that Hawes plays away from the hoop, which will open up space for Brand to do his thing down low. Part 2 is that Dalembert was a lazy, low IQ, headcase who had a negative influence "in the locker room", so to speak.
All I see, personally, is two new problems. We lost our defensive stopper and we had to take on Nocioni, who adds practically nothing to the team except an inflated contract. Promising him 20 minutes a game is perhaps the mindblowing aspect of the entire trade. As you describe above, Brian, it appears to be Thad's minutes that will decrease as a result, which is not a good thing no matter how you slice it.
Over the course of the season things tend to shake themselves out. Based on history and the way Collins talked about Thad, I'm pretty confident he'll start for atleast half the season. Collins said minutes will be distributed based on in-practice competition. I think Thad will simply out work the other 4's in practice. Honestly, I think Speights suffers the most from the trade. He doesn't seem to fit the character type I think Collins is looking for. He may work his way into more minutes late in the season. But at the outset I think he's going to pretty much be on probation.
I hope you're right regarding Speights. IMHO, if possible, he and Lou should be traded right now for the pieces we're missing.
Wouldn't want to trade Speights right now. I think he has a chance of being a special player. But he needs a crash course in humility. Not saying he's cocky or anything, but he has to learn to want to work all the time. Collins might have the chance to instill a strong work ethic in the kid. If this happens, we can be in real good shape.
Of course, if the opportunity to obtain a solid defensive center for these two presents itself, make it so.
I'd like to be optimistic about Speights, but when you look in those crazy eyes, you see one thing: "I gotta shoot this damn ball before it burns my hands off! Ahhhh!!!"
The other aspect of Thad's game that should get him minutes is his ability to finish on the fastbreak. He's better in the running game than all the other 4's on the team. So, if Collins really gets Thad to play defense and rebound better (a big IF), I can easily see Thad averaging 28-30 minutes a game at the 4 and 3.
And if Thad really shoots 38% from 3 as MylesKong predicts, there's really no reason to play Nocioni over Thad at all, promised minutes or not. But those three improvements (rebounding, defense, 3-point shooting) are all big question marks, of course.
I would hope Collins sees Thad as part of this team's future and does not let Nocioni cut into his minutes. But for that to happen, we might be looking at a lot of small ball.
I guess we could also see less minutes then I epected for Turner, and having Iguodala play a bunch at SG to open up some space at SF. Either way, I'm definitely expecting 25+ min/game for Thad.
Its a strange roster. I wonder if Collins really plans on giving regular minutes to 10 guys?
Brand, Speights, Hawes, Thad, Nocioni.
20 min/game for those four guys is 100, or 4 more minutes than is available at the 4/5. At least one guy in that group is going to get something resembling starter's minutes, you'd think, so that cuts into it further. At most, how many minutes are available at SF? 20? Probably not even that many.
Either one guy is going to get completely squeezed out, or a couple guys are going to play limited minutes. I'm leaning toward the latter. I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens if Nocioni isn't getting his 20 minutes/game, too.
Turner had the fourth-most votes for ROY in the ESPN forecast series. Here's their blurb...
Maybe I'm dense, but I don't see how minutes are going to be a huge problem for Turner. The only way he isn't playing 30 minutes/game is if he's not performing.
I was actually going to say that that's how Nocioni gets his minutes. He comes in for Turner and Iggy moves to the 2. I don't think Turner gets heavy minutes from the jump.
Link to today's article on Iguodala -- went up on Web late.
http://www.phillyburbs.com/news/news_details/article/126/2010/august/11/iguodala-continues-to-impress-2.html
Good read. I'm starting to feel a little bit hype about the season.
Good article. Here is another one. Looks like Iguodala is most likely going to be the starting SF next to Durant.
Tom, there is something in the TV listings for Thursday evening (6:30 PM, NBA TV), the kickoff of the World Basketball Showcase. Do you know if that will be another Blue-White scrimmage?
Looks like a four-team trade is about to go down.
Houston sends Ariza to NOH, gets Courtney Lee from NJ.
New Orleans sends Collison and Posey to IND, gets Ariza from HOU.
Indiana sends Troy Murphy to NJN, gets Collison and Posey from NOH.
New Jersey gets Murphy from IND, sends Lee to HOU.
Basically, the Nets used a buttload of cap space to make this deal work. All the other teams are saving a bit of money, with Houston saving the most.
Ariza was Darryl Morey's big free agent signing a year ago, he's pulling the plug awfully quick.
I think it's a solid move for Houston as Ariza isn't the guy they need, he just didn't fit in and he was trying to be the man.
I suppose that this will make Chris Paul happier because it looks like New Orleans is trying something.
Indiana gets their point guard they been looking for all of season and has to take on James Posey to do it.
New Jersey does take on Murphy, but I believe he's an expiring deal this season isn't he? So maybe they can swap him closer to the deadline or something, but they don't do anything to make their team better, unless there's some picks involved.
Courtney Lee gets moved around a lot for a guy who was so good in the playoffs huh?
You don't think Lee out/Murphy in helps? I do. Moving Lee gets Williams on the floor(I think Baby Iguadala is gonna be a stud) And Murphy pretty much adds what they thought they would get out of Yi, a big that can stretch the floor. Also, gives them some flexibility to let Favors develop and not feel pressure to play him heavily right away. Not to mention Murphy is still a very good rebounder. I felt that Lee was kind of redundant on that roster playing with them already having Harris and adding Morrow. NJ putting together a nice little supporting cast for whenever they acquire a star.
I think Murphy makes very little long term difference on a team as young as the Nets and that he'll be gone after next season if not at the trade deadline.
I don't think Troy Murphy fits into avery johnsons insanity unless avery things - hey look a power forward white guy - he can be dirk
LOL
Just dawned on me...
This is Billy King's first move! You're right, no way they got better.
Odds BK is working on a 6-year extension for Murphy as we speak?
Did he ever overly extend someone who wasn't his own draft pick?
Kenny Thomas, if I'm not mistaken.
Just read on ESPN that Avery has been coveting Murphy.
Well, see, that's why we post links and read things in context.
This is what ESPN says
In Murphy, the Nets get the veteran big man that new coach Avery Johnson has been coveting. Murphy is also on the last year of his contract, which could make him an important trading chip for the Nets at the 2011 trade deadline.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5455472
Now with the quote in context it seems that maybe he wasn't coveting Murphy but Muprhy might be the best he could get since the Pacers have been trying to dump him all summer in their quest for a point guard?
He's a 'veteran big man' who takes about 3/4 of his shots from 16 feet or further from the basket, 1/3 of his shot attempts last year were 3 pointers (which he does shoot at a good rate).
Plus he's a four, so isn't he just in Favors way?
You're funny. I guess I did take it out of context by saying the same thing that was reported, somehow. I don't know what context the second sentence adds to the first. Seem like unrelated facts to me.
Murphy isn't in Favors way. Favors isn't ready to play big minutes. I think you need vets around to help a youthful team grow and develop, unless there's a superduper star on your roster somewhere(OKC).
I heard Iverson, Kenny Thomas and Stephen Hunter contacted King about wanting to play for the Nets (no joke).
That's hilarious.
I remember I was so pissed that the Sixers drafted Thad over Thornton, but they made the right decision.
See, the problem is that Thad is not a 3/4. Thad is a G/F. Thad, with better fingertip control and work on his agility/defensive stance so he can play the 3, could easily be sort of a smarter Tracy McGradyesque player. The player who most resembles Thad in my opinion is newly-drafted Wes Johnson, who is also incorrectly listed as a SF/PF.
Thad's never going to be a PF, and trying to make him one is detrimental to all involved. He's a guy who has the potential to be an elite player if he puts in the work to rework his game and work on his fingertip control(which would take even his 3-point shot from being suspect to being very, very solid). If he does all of the work necessary, having a guy like Thad coming off the bench gives the Sixers the best 6th-man in all of basketball. He won't ever start for as long as Iguodala's here because Iguodala is the franchise player, the best facilitator, and a lock-down defender and starting anybody over him is crazy. Still, he could not only start but be a superstar anywhere else in the league at the 3 if he put in the work.
I know this because I'm a 6'5 in shoes former lead-feet big-man who couldn't guard or play on the perimiter to save his life and now I'm one of the best at both ends of the floor on the perimeter. Granted, I'm more of a combo guard and have more of a LeBron/Iguodala/Wade build and am also not playing in the NBA, but still. I know from experience how much you can improve if you have the potential and work hard enough. If I can do it, Thad can definitely do it better than me.
Respect to labor
Haber