Part 9 of the series features probably the best fit of them all, Clippers' PF, Elton Brand. (Archives after the jump).
Status- $16,440,000 player option for '08-'09
- '07-'08 salary: $15,344,000
ReferenceThoughts On The PlayerBrand missed most of the '07-'08 season with an Achilles' injury. He fought hard to get back for a show-and-tell at the end of the season and he was very impressive during heavy minutes in the final 8 games of the year. There have been conflicting reports about Brand's desire to stay in L.A. My personal feeling is that he worked that hard to get back so he could opt out and get a long-term deal. Was 8 games enough of a sample size for the Sixers to invest all of their cap space (and then some) into him? I think so. Brand is a complete player at the PF position, he can play with his back to the basket, he can hit the jumper out to 15-18 feet, he can run, he can defend his man and he can help off the ball and block shots.
Since the beginning of the season we've been saying that Elton Brand is the guy the Sixers need to raise themselves to the next level. Simply put, if the Sixers did nothing but add Elton Brand to their current roster I think they become the second-best team in their division and probably wind up with home court advantage in the first round next year. Would he elevate them to a title contender? No, not Brand alone, but he'd be a key piece to the puzzle.
Check out Brand's shot chart from his last full season, '06-'07.
Thought On LikelihoodAs I said above, it's this blogger's opinion that the final 8 games of the season were a showcase which will lead to one of two things. Either the Clippers will pony up and extend Brand or, and I think this is more likely, he will opt out. If he hadn't come back, it would've been awfully hard for him to walk away from $16M+ guaranteed, but he's looking at boatload of money, guaranteed, if he opts out. Brand would be an unrestricted free agent, meaning any team that signs him only needs to fit the first year of his deal under the cap. If the Sixers wind up in the $11M-$13M range, they may be able to get it done. What's more likely is a sign and trade with the Clippers, with a young player headed to L.A. along with a pick to make the salaries work.
The possibility of a larger sign and trade deal does loom. Andre Iguodala or Andre Miller could be involved, but I find that less likely. If Brand opts out, the Clippers lose all leverage. They'd be in a position where a sign and trade would bring something back to them, whereas just letting Brand walk would net them absolutely nothing.
There is another possibility. If Andre Iguodala isn't happy with the offer he gets from the Sixers following his poor showing in the playoffs, nor the offers he gets from other teams, he could sign his qualifying offer. If this happens, the Sixers would immediately gain another $4M-$5M in cap space. At that point, a sign and trade wouldn't be needed.
What do you guys think? Is Brand still the number 1 option? Should the Sixers do everything (short of trading Thad) to get him? Does the Achilles injury still worry you?
Archives after the jump...
He's a big risk - if they give him all their money and he continues to be plagued by injuries the team is srewed - but probably a wortwhile one. When healthy he is one of the best, and would be the third best big man in the east behind Dwight and KG. Not sure I understand the sign and trade option, though. If the Clips are over the cap, doesn't that mean we'd have to match salaries? And realistically, doesn't that mean moving Andre Miller? (I guess in theory you could move Sammy too, but not sure they'd take him.) Maybe we could get them to take Willie too...
Which brings us to my dream scenario: grab EB in a sign and and trade that includes Miller, snag Calderon via free agency, and give Iguodala a 1-year to maintain flexibility. Then spend the season finding out whether he can play the 2.
The value doesn't have to be equal on both sides of atrade unless both teams are over the cap. In this case, the Sixers have at least $10M in cap space, so for example they could trade willie Green and Calvin Booth for a player with at least a $15M salary (the $5M they are due + the $10M in cap space)
Honestly, this is how I expect the cap space to be used.
Yes, it would be a big risk to throw all our cap money at him. But if he does stay fit I definitely see us being top 5 in the East.
I think Brand could be the big piece. Add him to this team and then you can start worrying about acquiring or developing the smaller things you need to be a champion.
He would defintiyl be a great fit but I would be a little nervous about signing him to a 5 year deal with that much money involved. He's 29 now but i also think that hes a player that will continue to play at a high level because he doesn't rely soley on athleticism. Id rather have Josh Smith or Okafor but Brand would definitly put us in the elite category in the east.
I like the idea of adding another defensive stopper to the backline, and Okafor and Smith are clearly better defenders, I just think Brand is far and away a better offensive player, and his defense and rebounding are excellent as well. He's a complete player, which is what you need to get for that kind of money.
The Sixers will look into Brand. Ed has said he doesn't want to be a running team long term. He wants a post presence.
I see greener pastures in Miami if I am Brand if Marion opts out. They have arguably better personnel and a likely top 2-3 pick coming in. They have more cap space as well.
I don't see Brand happening. LA and Miami are better cities in general. Better nightlife and warmer weather. Both could add blue chippers in the draft as well.
I don't fear the achilles injury much. I don't fear the injury past. I don't fear the age. I would just fear that Miller, Iggy, Thad, Brand, and Sammy just wouldn't be good enough. I don't see that group as fitting together that well, unless Thad and Iggy really get to shooting some 3 pointers.
I think it's more likely that Brand would opt out than Marion. Brand is going to have teams interested in a long term deal, I'm not sure the same can be said about Marion.
I like Brand. He would add a ton to the team, but if Philly can sign or trade for a nice three point shooter (James Jones, Jason Kapono, or Matt Carroll) to go along with him, then this team becomes the 4th or 5th seed, with a chance to be the 3rd, in a hurry.
Exactly. I get the feeling that if we signed Brand, we'd be a 3rd or 4th seed, maybe make a conference finals once or twice, and never really win anything.
It depends. You can't look at any move they make this Summer as the key to a championship. No player of that caliber is going to be available in the draft or through trade or free agency. You have to take steps, moving up to the 3rd or 4th seed next year would be a huge step.
Then you see how Thad develops and you fill in the holes around the roster or make more moves to take the next leap. Brand is only 29, he should be dominant for another 3 years or so, maybe more, if he can stay healthy. Everyone else on the team is young. A lot can happen between now and then.
But how much cap room would we have left in the future to make more moves if we signed Brand? I don't know the answer, but I just wonder if it wouldn't make more sense to just sign a shooter or whatever this offseason and wait until future free agent classes with more talent to make the really big splash.
It would all depend. If Iguodala signs a long-term, big-money deal, then we'd probably be looking at mid-level exemptions only for a while. Or, a sign and trade with Andre Miller next offseason to bring in a guy making somewhere around $11M.
If Iguodala signs his qualifying deal, then we'd be looking at a boatload of money next year as well when Miller and Iguodala come off the books.
With just about every other available PF I'd agree with you, but Brand brings a lot to the table and I think adding him would be a huge step forward for this team.