Game ones are about advanced scouting, players acclimating themselves to the heightened pressure of the playoff environment and prodding your opponent to see what works and what doesn't. Game twos are all about adjustments. Both teams learned a lot in game one, tonight we're going to see if they found anything they can exploit.
The first adjustment we're going to need to see is how the Sixers handle the zone. If you didn't see
this post on NBA Playbook, check it out. In it, Sebastian Pruiti shows how the Sixers struggled against the zone in game one. Pruiti wraps it up by saying Miami used the zone on 10 possessions. On those possessions, the Sixers scored only 6 points. That may not be a big deal, but consider this: On the other 76 possessions, the Sixers scored 83 points (an OFR of 109.21).
The main adjustment Collins needs to make is in his rotations. When Miami first broke out the zone, the Sixers had a terrible lineup on the floor. If/when Miami decides to use it, Collins needs to get Meeks in the game immediately. He's your zone buster. Move the ball quickly from side to side, get the ball to Jodie with some space. If Miami overplays the zone to account for Meeks, then you drive. Without Meeks in the game, the zone can collapse, with Meeks on the floor, you can string it out and/or get really good looks. The other adjustment is to send all three bigs to the offensive glass. Leave the guards back to protect against runouts, but the bigs need to be shooting gaps and getting second-chances.
As far as Miami's adjustments, you'd have to think they're going to go with more zone, making everything I wrote above even more important.
In game one, it seemed like Collins was reacting to Spoelstra's substitutions at times. Tonight, look for him to press the issue. If Spencer Hawes starts this game looking as bad as he's looked for several weeks, Collins will probably go with a small lineup early. I think it would be a good idea to get Thad in there against Miami's big lineup, with Ilgauskus at the five and Bosh at the four. This is giving up a ton of size on the defensive end, but it's also nearly a guarantee that the Sixers will be able to run off misses. There's no way Bosh or Z is going to be able to keep up with Thad streaking down the floor, plus you've got Iguodala and Jrue to initiate the break off either a defensive rebound they grabbed, or a quick outlook from EB. The key to being able to play this lineup against Miami's big lineup is going to be Elton Brand's work on the defensive glass. He absolutely must do a better job on the defensive glass tonight. Iguodala and Jrue are also going to have to continue to chip in back there. Send one of them to the defensive glass on every shot, while the other hovers on the perimeter, ready to take off down the floor and handle it on the break. Then, of course, you have to finish on the break. They left too many points out there by blowing layups in transition. I'd also love to see a couple of transition threes from Meeks when LBJ and/or Wade get back to defend the hoop on a runout. This is on Jodie and the other guys, he needs to drag behind the break while someone else fills the wing at the hoop and the team's progression should be: dunk, Jodie three, go into the defender and get contact, in that order.
Not really adjustments, but keys nonetheless:
- Lou, you need to show up. I don't know how bad that hamstring is, but they need scoring from him off the bench.
- Whoever's guarding Wade should be screaming at him the entire game. See how he handles that with a migraine. That's a joke, but I'm serious about this. Make him pay every single time he drives the lane. No matter what you do, he's getting to the line 10+ times, make him earn those freebies. Don't just contest the shot, send him to the floor. Just assume that a good contest is going to result in a foul called, anyway. That should be the end result of how the refs have shown they're going to call this series. When games are called this tight, make them more physical, not less. If you don't have a chance to play solid defense without fouling, screw the solid defense and just hack the hell out of him. The same goes for LeBron, though LeBron's frame makes it hard to send him to the floor. Just wrap up his arms so he can't get off the circus shot.
- Trim the rotation. Going 11 deep isn't going to work, not when they wind up with 4 reserves on the floor at the same time and hope it works out. The Sixers have two day so off before game three. If they go down 2-0 in this series, pretty much all realistic hope has to be lost. This is do or die, push Brand, Jrue, Iguodala, Meeks and Thad all up to 40 minutes if you need to.
That's all I've got. The tip is at 7pm on TNT. Game thread will land at 5:30. Share your keys and adjustments in the comments.
From a purely analytical I'm a geek point of view it will be interesting to see the TNT ratings for tonights game in Philadelphia as the phillies have a game tonight too - on ESPN (which I assume will be on CSN as well?)
I would definitely go small even when the Heat go big. At this point of his career Ilgauskas is really just a jump shooter and it's not necessary to have a big guy defending him. I'd put Thad on him, with Brand staying on Bosh at all times.
What a fucking joke. Iguodala finished 8th in DPOY voting, behind two other wing defenders.
Tony Allen and Artest?
grant hill.
what a joke. link?
saw it on twitter, check the reading list for the top 10.
Jon Barry actually picked Hill as his DPOY. Hate that guy.
Yeah, the #25 defense in the league just wouldn't have been the same without Grant Hill. Fuckers.
Guess that means second team all defense right?
Who knows.
Not necessarily, since the teams are positional. They can't possibly put Howard, Garnett, and Chandler on the same team. But they could go, Howard, Chandler, Allen, Hill, Rondo. All of whom finished ahead of Iguodala. You know, maybe if Iguodala beat some of his teammates senseless, Wojnarowski would write nice pieces about him.
Well lets hope that Iguodala will be even more fired up after that DPOY voting.
The implication to this is that he didn't give full effort in game 1, you know that right?
He gave a full effort but he certainly looked un-fired up (which is his persona anyway).
I never really pay attention to how a player looks - i pay attention to how he plays.
You can always give even more if you wanted to. There is always another gear for every single player. The commonly used "giving 100%" phrase doesn't exist IMO. I wasn't implying that Iguodala wasn't plaing hard at all in game 1. He always plays hard.
I disagree with your assertion. You imply that a human being has no limits and can always give more than they are giving.
That contrasts the concepts of biology, physiology, genetic, kinesiology and a whole other list of things.
People are not robots or, you know, they'd be called robots
if Thad is going to be their best player, there is no reason to play him less than 35 minutes a game. He played under 28 minutes in game 1I realize that means a problem on the D-boards, but if Thad gets O-Boards like he did in game 1 it almost balances out.
The key is that Miami has to adapt their game plan against Thad and Jrue. That should give opportunities fro Collins to counter. But if you let Miami just play the Sixers straight up (or zone0 then it makes things that much harder.
Did you see Draft Express's latest piece on your draft crush?
I bet they'd need to get a top five pick to move and get him at this point.
I read that last week. Did you hear the agents has "bone age X-Rays" that suggest that he is truly 18?
From what I've read NBA scouts still put him as a late lottery pick... but he can move up at work-outs. The problem is that so many college players have dropped out of the draft that its hard to fathom teams letting Bismack slip anywhere near the Sixers. But in a "normal draft" maybe he could have been available. He certainly is a risky pick.
From the little I've seen and read this guy has the combination of physical attributes and drive to make him at worse a solid bench big. And its impossible to know how his offensive game will or won't develop. But if he can run the P&R and give you intimating defense, then he would be perfect.
I would have gladly sacrificed a playoff series with the Heat if they knew they could get their defensive PF/C of the future. But no one can give you that guarantee.
The bone age thing does not establish his age. There are guys in their early 20's who have "younger bone ages."
It does establish that he still had some growing to do after age 16. Your hands stop growing about 2 years befoer the rest of your body. So if it is 2 years later his back is probably still growing. So he will probably end up an inch or so taller and be broader when all is said and done.
Sorry, just saw the newer article. Sort of a rehash of what has already been said.
I'd be surprised if he doesn't go top 10 after workouts.
If EB does a better job on the defensive glass it certainly evens out. And he is entirely capable of doing so. He had a nice shooting game on Saturday but he was not doing the dirty work on the glass. Failed to box out far too many times. I think he will be focused like a laserbeam on righting that tongiht...foresee a gutsy performance from the veteran
Thad Young had 8 offensive rebounds and 3 defensive rebounds. Let's not absolve him from the crap defensive glass performance. It really was a team effort
but Thad was basically a non-factor on the defensive glass all year. he averaged 3.4 defensive board a game this season. He had 3 on Sunday.
And that's why Thad isn't a starter or a power forward or worthy of 11 million dollars a year
I can think of about 80 million reasons why I prefer to blame EB over Thad for the weak effort on the glass
Excellent points all, Brian. I would add that it might be abosolutely essential to get a solid OFFENSIVE contribution from Igoudala as well. He was superlative on defense and did a great job facilitating and grabbing rebounds Saturday, but 4 points isn't gonna cut it. This doesn't mean I want him sending up weak 18 footer after weak 20 footer...I'd like to see him and Jrue make a concerted effort to get to the rim and get contact
ugh, talking about Igoudala on offense reminded me of that missed three in the last moments, where Meeks passed up an open look to swing it to Igoudala...Jrue who had been hot from deep also passed up a desent look...I was tearing my hair out
In other news: has everyone been watching the rest of these games?I was in front of the TV all weekend and witnessed some absolutely superb basketball. After this weekend, I am more confident than ever in my call for OKC to come out of the West. They basically had a subpar game last night-no one outside of Durant & Westbrook could score-and they still won, because Durant and Westbrook are the best tandem in the league. Wacthing Durant when he's got his shot goin like he did last night is just a joy if you love basketball. And Westbrook is so hard to stop driving to the rim. Defensively, Ibaka is so much better now that Perkins is flanking him...interior defense wins championships and they've got it. They can defend the perimeter, too. When Durant wants to be he is shutdown on d.
On, the other hand, my pick to come out of the East I am not so sure about-Chicago. Rose is absolutely electrifying, like Iverson but with more physical tools. Best in the leaguy and driving to the hoop and finishing. Is his supporting cast good enough?I think so, and I also think that his will to win is so overpowering right now that when his teammates falter, he will put them on his back like he did in the last 3 minutes on Saturday.
Perhaps the best performance of all was Chris Paul vs. LA. CP3 is back!All I can say about his game yesterday is WOW.
The worst game was ATL-Orlando. Talk about lack of supporting cast...DH and Jameeer werre the only Magic players to show up. Whoever gets out of this series-I still give a slight edge to Orlando-will get carved up by Chicago. Really don't care for either of those teams.
Jason Kidd's performance was totally shocking...back from the dead!And even though I hate Dirk, he was beyond clutch. Still pulling for Portland to pull out the series. They definitely didn't play their best game.
Knicks-Celtics...I am 23, too young to really hate the Celtics and remember the rivalry, although i do hate Paul Pierce, going back to that detestable Pierce/Atoine Walker team that we played in the Iverson era. What year was that game five where they completely embarassed us?Ugh. Anyway, I hate the current Knicks more than the current Celtics...I kinda like Rondo(I love point guards) and you gotta give it to Ray Allen. Wow!I loathe Carmelo and he laid an enormous egg...it was a thing of beauty
ooh, the Memphis San Antonio game was also sweet...Marc Gasol!who knew?and randolph was a beast. I may or may not have laid some cash on that one so I was thrilled. Don't like this Spurs team at all, and especially don't like them without Manu. Tony Parker-overrated
had to think as I watched the Boston-New York game...GODDAMMIT IT WHY DID WE NOT SHOW UP FOR THREE QUARTERS IN THAT LAST KNICKS GAME!WE really would have had a shot at upending Boston...or at least taking them to 7
Iguodala gets 8th place in the DPOY voting, finished just behind Grant Hill among small forwards but got named on more ballots (Hill got one first place vote, however). It should be close whether Iguodala gets 1st-team All-Defense over Hill.
It would help his trade value if he gets 1st team. I doubt it will effect officiating either way. He already gets a fair amount of latitude on defense in most games. 1.6 PF per 36 min over the last 2 years is tremendous given his aggressive D.
Kind of my hopes for Jrue going forward. He doesn't get a lot of latitude when he tries to play physical D, he's been the victim of plenty of weak calls throughout the year. Hope when his reputation builds, he's given a little more leeway to use his body defensively
Hope so, but he will always be going against a lot of big name PG's who like to draw contact.
Whats the over/under on the minutes Noc will get tonight?
Hey Brian and GoSixers, did you enjoy the body check that Garnett threw to get Ray Allen open for the game winner last night? It really is amazing how certain rules don't see to apply to KG
I'm telling you all - read scorecasting - there's a fascinating chapter on home court advantage and how standard human psychology explains the refs bias towards home teams (and it seems to be reaL)
Would you trade Iggy in order to keep Thad?
it depends what they're getting in return for Iggy
I would not trade Iguodala and then give a similar salary to Thad. But I would be open to making the right trade of Iguodala if it presented itself. As Jrue, Turner and Thad mature they should be able to cover better for the loss of Iguodala if what you got in return helped you in the front court.
John Hollinger The Sixers will keep Young; they'd trade Iguodala before they let Young walk, if they're smart. He should be a factor in MIP, but what amazes me more is how ignored he's been in Sixth Man voting. I've seen a lot of ballots list Glen Davis and not Young, and I just don't get that.
Translation:
$$$$$$$$$$
Rick Adelman fired
And here there were many who told me my trade deadline prognostication of playoffs of fired for Adelman was ludicrous
Who said that? Of course, I think it's pretty undeserved. They just don't have defenders.