How many times have you heard Sixers fans long for our team to be like Oklahoma City? If only we had a guy like Durant. If only we could stockpile high lottery picks, make shrewd cap moves and set ourselves up for the future like they have. If only. Well, year three in OKC's upward progression is off to a slower start than most expected and the Sixers have a chance to make that start even slower tonight.
If you're wondering why OKC is only 3-3, the simple answer is they've gone from a top-ten defense to a bottom five defense. Nick Collison's absence accounts for some of that, maybe more than you'd expect, but it can't be the whole picture. If you took a look at their roster last season, they had strong defenders at the one and two. A productive defender at the three, in that he blocked a lot of shots and got a lot of steals. An explosive defensive big off the bench (Ibaka), and another under-rated defensive big (Nick Collison). That's pretty much it. It seemed like smoke and mirrors, and maybe it was. Maybe the book is out on them.
What the Thunder were, are or will be isn't relevant tonight, though. So let's talk about the matchups:
- Jrue vs. Russell Westbrook: Westbrook shot a combined 4/23 against the Sixers last season, and Jrue was every bit the reason. He did an excellent job of turning Westbrook into a jump shooter, and Westbrook couldn't turn the jumpers down. We're talking about two excellent young point guards, on both ends of the floor, going at each other. Matchups don't get more exciting than this one for me.
- Kevin Durant vs. ?????: Your guess is as good as mine. I think Turner will want the matchup, I'm not sure if Collins will give it him. He may opt for Andres Nocioni's toughness (until he picks up three quick fouls). Ultimately, this game will probably illustrate exactly how much Andre Iguodala is missed. The Kincks have no explosive scoring threat on the wing, missing Iguodala wasn't a huge deal against them, defensively. But whenever the Sixers do face a team with a guy like Durant, or even on the next level down, it's going to be clear exactly what his defense gives the team. Best case, the Sixers use that 1-2-2 zone we saw against the Knicks, Durant settles for mildly contested threes and doesn't hit too many of them. I'm not expecting the best case to happen.
- ET vs. Sefolosha: In Summer League, Turner had a ton of problems with long, athletic defenders. Sefolosha is ten times better than anyone he faced in Orlando. Keep an eye on whether ET is able to shake him, or if he even tries. This is one game, but it's important to me to see if he's able to get the space he needs against a long defender, especially if the expectation is that Iguodala might be traded and Turner might slide to the three, where he'll be facing long defenders on a nightly basis.
- Lou vs. Maynor: If the Sixers get this matchup, I like it a whole lot. Lou has been eating young guards alive with his pump fakes and penetration. I see no reason why he won't be able to do the same to Maynor.
Jeff Green is listed as questionable for OKC. Iguodala and Kapono are expected to miss the game for Philly. I'd say the Sixers are on the losing side of that equation.
OKC has shot the all horribly all season long, if the Sixers are going to pull a big upset in this one, they're going to have to make OKC shoot jumpers and hope their cold streak continues. On the offensive end, the team will probably live or die with Jrue. If he can keep his production and efficiency up with Westbrook on him, they've got a legitimate shot. If he can't, well, I guess hope Brand and Turner can combine for 50+ points, or something.
Prediction: Believe it or not, I've got the Sixers winning and breaking triple digits on the back of a big game from Jrue. PHI 107, OKC 103.
The tip is at 8pm.
I hope we can get this win as well Brian. Its going to hurt that we don't have Iguodala though. I can see Durant having a big game but if we work as a team and keep them out the paint we will have a chance at the upset.
I've got confidence in the Jrue-Westbrook matchup based on last season. And Jrue's been aggressive the past 2 games so that bodes well.
I hope Turner can have a breakout game offensively soon. Guarding Durant on a few occasions could be good for him, but I don't want him getting into foul trouble because that will hurt the team.
Who will Durant Defend? Couldn't they put him on Jrue if he starts to go wild? or Thabo on Jrue? Also didn't Harden dominate ET during summer league iirc? I think the Thunder have enough players that can defend Jrue/ET well, that likely neither will have a big game.
Time for thad to step up and be that lock down defender on durant!!
Sixers begin difficult stretch by facing three quality opponents on the road:
http://www.phillyburbs.com/opinions/blogs/intell_blogs/intell_blogs_details/article/634/2010/november/10/sixers-hit-road-hope-it-doesnt-hit-back.html
I hope I'm wrong, but I expect OKC to hammer the Sxiers tonight.
I think the Knicks got burned by not preparing for the Sixers. The crowded Lou, played off Jrue, and at times guarded Turner with a smaller player. This played right to the Sixers few strengths.
But I don't think Brooks will let the Sixers do what they want to do so easily. And I think he'll have the Thunder driving to the hole instead of settling.
IIRC the Thunder did not set many picks for Westbrook last year. That allowed Jrue to really man up on him. I wonder if that is part of OKC's set offence (and they assume Westrbrook can beat his man 1 on 1) or will we see an adjustment in this game?
Imaginary Brand trade o'day (let me know if this is getting boring):
After Dec 15th, this trade works financially:
Brand(16/17/18)
Nocioni(7/6.5)
Lou(5.5/6/6.3)
for
Carter (17/4M buyout)
Gortat (6/7/7/8)
Duhon (3/3.5/3.5/4)
Tried to find players who make sense. The Magic would try and replace VC's skills with Nocioni and Lou. Lou also replaces Duhon as buck-up PG. While Brand can play PF and back-up C. It gives the Magic a more versatile squad that can go big or small. And Lou's ability to get past his man alongside Howard could really hurt people (plus Howard covers for Lou's lousy D.)
On the Sixers side they clear an unbelievable amount of salary, since the team can buy out his 18M next year for only 4M.
Because of the discrepancy in total dollars over the life of the deal (14M more on the Magic side), I doubt the Magic do this deal...
The key for Orlando is having a more dangerous and versatile team, while clearing all contracts that go beyond 3 years, so they can sign multiple max FA's when Howard's contract expires and build a super-team.
I think that orlando could accomplish the exact same thing by just trading Duhon/Gortat for a 3 year or less contract without trading VC and taking on Brand.
Possibly. I do think they absolutely need a guy like Lou. They don't have anyone to give the ball to in the fourth quarter of games, he could fill that role nicely for them. I'd still be in favor of Lou for Gortat, straight up.
I don't think any contending team would have any interest at all in Lou. How can you trust putting Lou out there? Lou will probably be on losing teams his whole career , it's his destiny.
What do you think of this.
http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=5730561
It should show that Kapono and Songaila go to Clips btw. Not sure why it isn't.
I think Brand actually has more trade value at this point than Baron.
I think it's close, but I still am not buying Brands resurgence. But no doubt that for Orlando, Baron Davis> Elton Brand.
I think it's a great trade. B-Davis is a 3 year contract, they need a PG, Nelson isn't the answer for Orlando. The Clippers do it because they get out of B-Davis contract, and have 15-20 million cap room this off season + Eric Bledsoe is their future
I'm not a fan of Jameer, but he's 10x better than Baron at this point. Baron got beat out by Bledsoe not because Bledsoe is the future, but because he's better right now. Baron's out of shape and even in shape, he does more damage than good and has for a couple of years.
I still think Baron in shape> Jameer Nelson.Also I don't think bledsoe won the starting job permanently, i think it's BD's once he gets back.
But this hypothetical stuff aside, do you really buy this Brand we are seeing right now? You seem semi positive about him.
He's playing extremely well and it doesn't look like smoke and mirrors to me. I seriously doubt he's got enough in the tank to keep up this level of production playing 38 minutes/game for 82 games, but in a 25-30 min/night role, he can be very effective for a good team. You can't say the same about Baron. And Baron lost his job out there.
I haven't gotten the perpetual Baron Davis love for a while now...he'd be terrible in Orlando - he's selfish and he doesn't like to play defense.
Do you think he's going to continue shooting 58%? That's the stat that causes me to be concerned, I don't think there's anyway he can continue shooting this high above his career average.
No. I also don't think he needs to shoot 58% to be a solid contributor. I do, however, think it's very likely that Baron Davis continues to shoot below 40% which is one of many reasons that he's a bad basketball player.
Ummm...why isn't Jameer the answer for Orlando?
I think that BDavis has a more untradable contract than Brand...and I certainly do not see him as an upgrade over Nelson.
I would do Lou-for-Gortat in a HEARTBEAT.
By a mile IMO.
I need to look at it on a spreadsheet, but basically you're talking about savings of $19M, give or take, over the next two seasons, then taking on an extra $12M in the third year. You'd also be lining up Gortat and Duhon's contracts to expire the same summer as Iguodala's, but I'm not sure they'd have meaningful cap space until then, right?
If you think Gortat can be the answer at the five (which he potentially could be), then I wouldn't have a problem with this deal. I hate Duhon, but whatever, you have to take back something you hate.
In the short term, what's your starting lineup? Do you look to buy VC out immediately? Do you start him? JH, VC, AI9, TY, Gortat?
Jrue, ET, VC, Iguodala, Gortat. Iggy can deal with mismatches on defense- most 4's won't be able to deal with Iggy.
Yeah, they should be doing more of that now than they are, AI9 at the four.
I think you should be clearing a ton of cap space next year. VC has a 4M buyout this summer and you are unloading Nocioni, Brand and Lou (31M combined.)
It's $29M (current) vs. just under $14M (if they made the deal). So $15M difference. Maybe they could offer Melo a max deal.
What they could do is flip Carter for something long term that is of use. His contract will be extremely valuable because a buy out clause is even better than an expiring. An expiring only has value at the trade deadline, but you have to use it or lose it. While a buy out clause means they can make a deal this summer that provides direct cap relief to a team headed over the tax (that team can trade for VC and then exercise the team buy-out option and clear 14M in cap space.)
So in terms of trading chips, this trade would give you a valuable chip both this Spring and next summer. And since the Sixers would actually have cap space to take on a big deal, it puts them in position to make an impact trade. As opposed to other years, when the Sixers themselves needed to trim cap space, so could not flip expiring assets for value (Andre Miller.)
I also think Gortat is a reasonable long term piece at C, while Duhon is serviceable as a back-up PG making Willie Green type money.
The team has to take that buyout by 6/30/11, so it doesn't have any value once free agency starts. It would have value this year at the trade deadline (or possibly prior to the end of June after the season, but those deals are rare). It's not one of those anytime options, like Dampier had, unfortunately. If it did, the contract would be extremely valuable.
I would do this deal, mainly because I like Gortat and we aren't taking on horrible contracts in return. I'd take any deal that meets those criteria.
Does it still work if you put Redick in for Duhon?
Thanks for the clarification on the buy out. I only saw the 4M part.
You could move some players to make Redick work in place of Duhon- but I doubt that makes sense to either team. Redick + Lou can fill in for what Carter + Duhon provided. While if you trade away Reddick and Carter you are left with too many tiny guards and no SG. On the same token, the Sixers would need a back-up vet PG, not 2 SG's.
Overall I find this deal really interesting for both squads. But I'm doubtful that the Magic take on so much short term salary just to free up extra cap space in 3 years. Unless they are really focussed on building a super-team (Miami style) when Howard expires in 2.5 years.
Brand + Thad for Dunleavy + Foster. There you go, that gets Indiana plus 11 wins and Sixers -24 according to trade machine. We already got Noc and Hawes, why not? Seems reasonable.
Umm, yeah. Where do I sign the petition for this one?
Don't think Indy would do it, but you never can tell w/ them.
Wow. KLOVE wants to be in LA..............
http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=301109013
not exactly what he said
but who wouldn't rather play for the lakers?
He went to UCLA and this is being blown way out of proportion.
Yes he'd rather play for the lakers than the t'wolves
who wouldn't?
referring to the boxscore. What did he say????????????
I got my answer.................
http://www.dailynews.com/ci_16570022?source=most_viewed
How do you give up 26 offensive rebounds and still win?
Btw, these games wouldn't be that rare if Rambis gave Love 35+ minutes/game.
Get 14 of your own
shoot 45% while the other team shoots 38%
But come on - the best game of last night was the way the heat gave up 11 points to Paul Millsap in 30 seconds.
He increased his CAREER 3 points made total by 150% in under 30 seconds.
Jason I believe 9 out of 10 people would rather have nelson than davis at this point in there careers. Im not really jumping on the elton brand ship either but i do believe he can keep it up if his minutes is around 28-32 mins a game I dont believe what hes doing is luck. Davis is lazy hes just trying to get through his contract thats just my opinion.
Chad Ford from his chat today:
Ford is so full of crap. Philly passed on Favors for the same reason 27 other teams would have and the same reason HE SAID THEY SHOULD prior to the draft. Mabye it was the right decision, maybe it wasn't, but I hate this revisionist crap from those ESPN guys.
Man, ESPN chats are getting harder and harder to read. The memo has apparently made the rounds and the only way these jokers are allowed to judge players is using Hollinger's PER.
OH that memo went around a couple years ago, some of them still revert to using points per game.
Someone earlier this week asked how hollingers ranking system could have the 0-5 rockets in the top 10 and the respondent (thorpe I think) said that it's just how the formula works out and wouldn't dare to question a formula that doesn't have a record modifier.
I personally wouldn't be surprised to hear that his algorithm has a special 'rockets' clause cause everyone loves daryl morey and how he applies moneyball principles...(which most people at ESPN don't understand what 'moneyball principles' actually means)...who cares if it works.
Morey gets a lot of praise for a guy with a pissed off point guard and a team with no wins limiting their best player to 24 minutes per game :)
I wouldn't be so sure that 27 other teams would have passed on a big with upside to take a wing with no apparent defined position coming into the draft.
I didn't make that number up. I believe it was Chad Ford, the same guy quoted above, who said he polled all the GMs and 28 said they would take Evan Turner second.