It's time to put my predictions on the record. Check them out after the jump, and leave your own as well.
General predictions, as bullets, first. Then game-by-game predictions below.
Iguodala averages 15-20 points for the series
Miller averages 20+ and drops 30 in one game
Thad averages 25+ and drops 30 twice.
Dalembert fouls out of 2 games. (this isn't necessarily a bad thing, it means he was in the game long enough to collect 6 fouls)
Howard has two 20/20 games, Orlando loses one of them
Lou Williams has a huge positive effect on the series, carrying the scoring load for stretches with the second unit.
One game will be won because of a stretch of Reggie Evans' insane defense.
One game will be lost because Reggie Evans plays too many minutes
At some point, Tony DiLeo will dust off Donyell Marshall and send him into the game to change the momentum. He will do just that
Rashard Lewis hits 10 threes in one game.
Game-by-game predictions:
Game 1 - Philadelphia 101, Orlando 95.
Game 2 - Orlando 110, Philadelphia 87.
Game 3 - Philadelphia 110, Orlando 100
Game 4 - Philadelphia 96, Orlando 94
Game 5 - Orlando 115, Philadelphia 99
Game 6 - Philadelphia 110, Orlando 95
Sixers in six. That's my prediction and I'm sticking to it. The Sixers faced almost an identical situation last season, no one gave them a shot, and they very nearly shocked the world. This year, they have more experience, more weapons and they're playing a worse team with limited playoff experience. I think they learn from last year's experience and they take the series. Of course, I'm banking on the Sixers team from a couple of weeks ago showing up, rather than the team who lost 6 straight, but that's a gamble I'm willing to take. I think the leaders have this team have too much pride to settle for anything less than max effort from any Sixer who takes the floor in the series.
Vote in the poll and leave your predictions in the comments. Check out all the playoff coverage here.
"Lou Williams has a huge positive effect on the series, carrying the scoring load for stretches with the second unit."
Of your general predictions, to me, this is the biggest key to, arguably, the whole series. He has been so inconsistent and erratic this whole year. It would not surprise to see him revert to the bad Lou and dribble endlessly while jacking up horrible shots. On the flip side, he could be the good Lou who scores efficiently and continually attacks the lane while either finishing or, at the least, getting to the line.
But my biggest key is one that I spoke of back around Jan. or Feb. when it happened during an isolated game and he set his career high. Thad getting to the line.
This can be the tipping point where these possessions are more magnified in the playoffs. We were winning in early Jan. and weren't even getting this element from him (for multiple reasons). If that midseason play from the team resurfaces AND we get him going to the line 7-10 a game, look out.
The Sixers are going to need the perimeter guys to put fouls on Howard. Sammy isn't going to do it. If Thad can draw contact when he blows by Lewis on the perimeter, which he will do at will, he could really change this series.
another key will be hitting our free throws. We can assume we will get killed from behind the arc but we can!t compound that by shooting 70 % from the line.
Very good point. The Sixers are a terrible free throw shooting team, so at the bare minimum they have to hit their average. If they have any games at or below 70%, which they've done quite a few times this season, they don't have a prayer in those games.
See, the problem with the whole "Team X did XYZ last year, now they're more experienced and have more weapons so they should do better" logic is that there are two teams in a series. Orlando, last year, played a team as good as we are today in the first round, maybe better, namely 41-41 Toronto, a team that, by Pythagorean record, should've been 49-33. They won in 5 games. Then they lost in 5 in the second round to Detroit, true. But now, Orlando's (a) more experienced, (b) has more weapons (mainly a totally reliable, solid shooting guard, as well as an improved bench), and (c) unlike us, they actually improved by seven wins. Therefore, by your sort of logic, Orlando should beat the next 41-41 team it faces in the first round in 4, I suppose. I don't particularly buy either version of the argument, so I'll go with Orlando in 6.
They don't scare me, but they're nice players. Battie and Gortat are useful role players, so is Johnson, so is Pietrus. Even Redick will eventually hit some threes.
I think if you follow Lou thru this year, he and Thad are the only sixers that have steadily improved through the year. Yes, Lou could revert back but that would not make sense.
I am voting sixers in 6 but would not be shocked if the sixers lose in 6 or 7.
This won't be a Sixers blog unless we can rally behind the Sixers so I will go for Sixers in 7.
The Magic are a far superior team so a lot has to happen for the Sixers to beat them 4 times. Off the top of my head:
* Thad scores loads and the team trusts him to take the big shots
* Miller abuses Alston
* Ratliff and Daly ensure we double Howard as little as possible
* Turkoglu struggles with his ankle
* Speights and Lou provide 20 PPG from the bench
* DiLeo learns to use Reggie and Ivey only at the appropriate times
* Marshall sees 10 MPG at the 4
* Sixers take advantage of their athleticism and youth to run as much as possible, possibly send games to overtime
Marshall getting those 10 MPG could be so crucial and should come at the expense of Ivey if not Reggie. The Magic don't really have a guard oriented perimeter player that needs to be shut down which Ivey supposedly excels at. And Ivey's shooting of three's has worn thin lately.
I'd love it, but I just don't see it happening, not right away at least. Marshall is saved for desperate circumstances, then when the team plays well he gets back in the rotation for a couple games, then they forget about him again. I don't understand why, but that's the pattern.
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"Lou Williams has a huge positive effect on the series, carrying the scoring load for stretches with the second unit."
Of your general predictions, to me, this is the biggest key to, arguably, the whole series. He has been so inconsistent and erratic this whole year. It would not surprise to see him revert to the bad Lou and dribble endlessly while jacking up horrible shots. On the flip side, he could be the good Lou who scores efficiently and continually attacks the lane while either finishing or, at the least, getting to the line.
But my biggest key is one that I spoke of back around Jan. or Feb. when it happened during an isolated game and he set his career high. Thad getting to the line.
This can be the tipping point where these possessions are more magnified in the playoffs. We were winning in early Jan. and weren't even getting this element from him (for multiple reasons). If that midseason play from the team resurfaces AND we get him going to the line 7-10 a game, look out.
The Sixers are going to need the perimeter guys to put fouls on Howard. Sammy isn't going to do it. If Thad can draw contact when he blows by Lewis on the perimeter, which he will do at will, he could really change this series.
BTW, I initially put it on the Orlando Magic Daily thread a few days ago while debating with Joe. Sixers in 6.
another key will be hitting our free throws. We can assume we will get killed from behind the arc but we can!t compound that by shooting 70 % from the line.
Very good point. The Sixers are a terrible free throw shooting team, so at the bare minimum they have to hit their average. If they have any games at or below 70%, which they've done quite a few times this season, they don't have a prayer in those games.
See, the problem with the whole "Team X did XYZ last year, now they're more experienced and have more weapons so they should do better" logic is that there are two teams in a series. Orlando, last year, played a team as good as we are today in the first round, maybe better, namely 41-41 Toronto, a team that, by Pythagorean record, should've been 49-33. They won in 5 games. Then they lost in 5 in the second round to Detroit, true. But now, Orlando's (a) more experienced, (b) has more weapons (mainly a totally reliable, solid shooting guard, as well as an improved bench), and (c) unlike us, they actually improved by seven wins. Therefore, by your sort of logic, Orlando should beat the next 41-41 team it faces in the first round in 4, I suppose. I don't particularly buy either version of the argument, so I'll go with Orlando in 6.
One difference between last year's magic team and this year's magic team. Jameer Nelson vs. Rafer Alston.
Also, does anyone on their bench really scare you?
They don't scare me, but they're nice players. Battie and Gortat are useful role players, so is Johnson, so is Pietrus. Even Redick will eventually hit some threes.
I think if you follow Lou thru this year, he and Thad are the only sixers that have steadily improved through the year. Yes, Lou could revert back but that would not make sense.
I am voting sixers in 6 but would not be shocked if the sixers lose in 6 or 7.
This won't be a Sixers blog unless we can rally behind the Sixers so I will go for Sixers in 7.
The Magic are a far superior team so a lot has to happen for the Sixers to beat them 4 times. Off the top of my head:
* Thad scores loads and the team trusts him to take the big shots
* Miller abuses Alston
* Ratliff and Daly ensure we double Howard as little as possible
* Turkoglu struggles with his ankle
* Speights and Lou provide 20 PPG from the bench
* DiLeo learns to use Reggie and Ivey only at the appropriate times
* Marshall sees 10 MPG at the 4
* Sixers take advantage of their athleticism and youth to run as much as possible, possibly send games to overtime
Marshall getting those 10 MPG could be so crucial and should come at the expense of Ivey if not Reggie. The Magic don't really have a guard oriented perimeter player that needs to be shut down which Ivey supposedly excels at. And Ivey's shooting of three's has worn thin lately.
I'd love it, but I just don't see it happening, not right away at least. Marshall is saved for desperate circumstances, then when the team plays well he gets back in the rotation for a couple games, then they forget about him again. I don't understand why, but that's the pattern.
Well, umm... umm... I like the Moneyline tonight?
Orlando in 4 is my prediction.
If the Sixers don't win tonight, I highly doubt they get a win at all. If they won, I'd like Orlando in 6.
Orlando in 5 is what i've thought all week - no reason to change my mind as i can ses