It's always more fun to break down a win instead of a loss, so let's see how the 76ers' 106-96 win over the Knicks was obtained from a Differential Production point of view. (for the uninitiated,
click here to see the full explanation of Differential Production).
For this game, Brian was willing to "score" the second half and thus cut my work in half -- thanks Brian! Here are the overall results:
tables
|
OFFENSE |
|
Pos.
Shots |
Neg.
Shots |
Off.
Reb |
Asst. |
TO |
Off.
Tot |
| Nocioni |
5.75 |
-2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3.75 |
| Brand |
7.5 |
-6.5 |
1 |
0.75 |
-3 |
-0.25 |
| Hawes |
3.5 |
-6 |
0.5 |
0 |
-1 |
-3 |
| Holiday |
10 |
-8.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
-2 |
5.5 |
| Turner |
5.5 |
-5.5 |
0.5 |
1.75 |
-5 |
-2.75 |
| Kapono |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
| Young |
1 |
-3 |
0.5 |
1 |
-1 |
-1.5 |
| Battie |
1.75 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1.75 |
| Williams |
11 |
-9 |
0.5 |
1 |
-3 |
0.5 |
| Meeks |
2.25 |
-3 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
-0.25 |
| Speights |
1.25 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
-1 |
1.25 |
| Team |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
| Totals |
50.5 |
-45.5 |
3.5 |
11.5 |
-17 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(106/103) |
tables
|
DEFENSE |
TOT |
|
Scored
On |
Stops |
Def.
Reb |
ORA |
TO
Forced |
Def.
Tot |
| AN |
-5.5 |
1.5 |
1.25 |
-1 |
0 |
-3.75 |
0 |
| EB |
-10 |
4 |
2.25 |
-1 |
2.25 |
-2.5 |
-2.75 |
| SH |
-5.75 |
2.5 |
1.25 |
-1 |
0 |
-3 |
-6 |
| JH |
-6.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
5.5 |
| ET |
-9.75 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
-2.75 |
-5.5 |
| JK |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
| TY |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
1.75 |
-0.5 |
0.25 |
0.5 |
-1 |
| MS |
-2 |
1 |
1.5 |
0 |
1.5 |
2 |
3.25 |
| LW |
-2 |
4 |
0.25 |
0 |
1 |
3.25 |
3.75 |
| JM |
-4 |
3 |
0 |
-0.5 |
4.5 |
3 |
2.75 |
| TB |
-6 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
-1 |
0 |
-3 |
-1.25 |
| Team |
-3 |
8.5 |
3.75 |
-0.5 |
3 |
11.75 |
10.75 |
| Tot |
-56 |
31 |
21 |
-6 |
16 |
6 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(96/102)
|
|
Statman's comments:
- Surprisingly, in a game where the Sixers scored 106 points, the game was won on the defensive side. The team ODP was +3 for the game, while the team DDP was +6.
- Even more surprisingly, the leaders on defense were several bench players who aren't thought of as good defenders: Lou (team high +3.25), Meeks (+3), and Speights (+2). Most of that was done in the 2nd half, which Brian watched more closely, so he can comment on whether that was really good defense or just "luck."
- As in the Pacer win, the Knicks made a lot of unforced errors, as evidenced by the +8.5 total for Team "Stops" (open shots missed) and +3 for Team Turnovers Forced (for unforced errors). Wins are born out of both luck and good play.
- I was surprised to find that Brand was a net negative for the game (-2.75), but it's important to remember that he was guarding the Knicks' best scorer, Amare. In DP terms, if the defender of the opponents' best scorer is not too much of a negative, other players can make up for it. In this game, Jrue (team high +5.5) won his matchup over Felton.
- Turner gave up a lot of points (some off poor defense, some off his turnovers that led to baskets). He was 2nd-worst in this game for overall DP (-5.5), but he made some positive contributions throughout the game, as several people have pointed out. Worst DP, no surprise, belonged to Mr. Hawes.
Brian's comments:
- First of all, the process for accumulating this data is time-consuming (it probably took me two hours to do the second half, but a lot of that time was just getting familiar with the scoring and re-checking plays to assign credit/blame), but it's completely worth it. Watching every play with the framework of DP in mind is enlightening almost, and I want to thank Statman for developing the system.
- Before I get into the individual efforts, I want to point out one string Doug Collins pulled in the second half of that game. On just about every make, he applied a sort of token pressure with the guards, and then fell back into a zone. Usually, a 1-2-2 zone, with Jrue at the top, then Meeks/Turner or Lou/Turner and Brand/Battie underneath. This zone was unbelievably effective, and really everyone was involved. Jrue was doing a great job of slowing the ball down at the point of attack, and stopping any dribble drives into the middle before they started. The wings were awesome at closing on three-point shooters. The Knicks only had one uncontested three-point look in the fourth quarter, and that was off an offensive rebound before the defense could react. Finally, you have to give a ton of credit to Battie, Brand and Speights. They more than held their own on the blocks, they challenged shots and did a great job with positional man-on-man whenever the Knicks tried to go to Amare in the post. I don't know if this was a case of Collins throwing darts at a board, or if this is a defense he specifically chose for that particular group of players, but they played it to perfection. It was their defense that won this game, make no mistake.
- OK, if you watched the game or even just checked the box score, you already know Jrue had a great game. What you probably didn't know is that he didn't contribute a whole lot to DP in the first half, in fact he was a -.5. In the second half, though, he was +6, and in the decisive fourth quarter, he was +5. In fact, Turner and Jrue combined for a +10 in the fourth on the back of efficient offense, solid defense and great defensive rebounding. Jrue also made two phenomenal assists for high-impact scores, one on a baseline drive that he used to kick to Meeks for a wide-open corner three, the other a lob he threw to speights from about half court for a dunk.
- Call it effective hiding on the Sixers part, call it poor play on the Knicks part, but whatever the reason, the Knicks only attempted to go after Lou three times in the entire second half. He also only attempted one field goal. He was fouled 4 times, though and contributed a +4.25 in the half.
- Jrue and Turner brought it home, Lou was a consistent contributor throughout the second half, but the two guys who brought the Sixers back from their big deficit were Speights and Meeks, and they both did it on the defensive end. When the Sixers desperately needed stops, it was those two guys who provided them off the bench. Meeks and Speights combined for a +4 on the defensive end in the third quarter, and their plays came when the Knicks were on the verge of pushing their lead to double digits.
You can download the quarter-by-quarter breakdown
here, and I've also uploaded my expanded play-by-play from the second
half here, if you want to check that out.
Well I hope Collins continues to give Meeks oppurtunities. I like how he competes on the defensive end
Meeks showed he merits another look. Even if Iguodala plays Wednesday, I could see Meeks being activated in Songaila's spot.
Blog on Collins and Turner's college coach correspondence after Sunday's win:
http://www.phillyburbs.com/opinions/blogs/burbsblogs/sports_blog/sports_blog_details/article/421/2010/november/09/turners-college-coach-show-him-the-how-and-why.html
Brian, great job, and you picked up even more than I would have in re-watching the second half.
Who was Lou guarding in the 2nd half? I wonder sometimes whether teams feel it's worthwhile to "go after" a weak defender even if he is guarding a somewhat less-capable offensive player, rather than going to their #1 guy (in this case Amare) guarded by a better defensive player (mostly Brand). It seemed the Knicks felt the latter was the better option.
Speaking of "going after" someone on defense, the opposite is also true: teams will sometimes avoid going at certain elite defenders. On the Sixers, Iguodala probably get the fewest opportunities to defend in isolation situations, because he excels in them (if teams want to attack him, they usually do it with a screen, as getting through screens is his weakest area defensively). To me, this is the NBA equivalent of an outfielder having few assists because few people run on him or a cornerback having few INTs because few people throw on him.
good point
The 2 biggest factors you mentioned, Meeks and Spieghts could alter this teams outlook if they buy in and stay in the rotation. Turner and Meeks looks a lot more attractive than Turner and Kapono and Turner seems versatile enough to handle the 3. If Spieghts can play at this level, the way he is the last 3 games, for at least 24 minutes a night, things could change around here quickly. [playoffs?]
One other thing I failed to mention: Thad never took off his warmups in the second half of the Knicks game. I think that's notable, especially considering Iguodala wasn't available. Nocioni played limited minutes, the three was basically manned by Turner and Meeks.
On a completely unrelated not i stumbled upon the Drtg of the SIxers in the past.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/
While this is still far from Larry Brown's defense and is based on a very small sample size, this appears to be the best defense the Sixers have had over the past 5-6 years.
It kinda makes you wonder:
a) Just how important a good coach is.
b) Imagine the number had we kept Dalambert instead of Hawes and Nocioni.
c) Just how much of an impact on defense as a whole (not just blocks and rebounds) Dalambert had on defense. Maybe not as much as we thought (or i thought) even though he is still light years ahead of Hawes, who is not even worth mentioning in the same sentence as defense. He quite possibly might have degraded to the worst defensive center ever. And i mean it.
Just a food for thought :).
We've also played more than half of our games against just truly awful offensive teams. Let's see what that number looks like after this road trip.
We've also played against some pretty good offensive teams like the Hawks and the Heat.
But you are right this west road trip will tell us more, about where they stand both defensively and offensively.
Miami was a mess in their first couple of games. Man, I just looked at their stats, I didn't realize how bad Chris Bosh has been. The big three consists of Wade, LeBron and James Jones to this point, Bosh has been basically what Brand was last season, only a worse rebounder.
Good work in compiling and breaking down the data. I like the idea of a 1-2-2 zone. This team might as well use some zone principles since they have some poor individual defenders- as long as the zone is one that applies pressure.
Speaking of interesting stats, I saw an article by John Hollinger on free agent disappointments thus far and he mentioned some shockingly low PER numbers (like James Harden, 3.6). Among the Sixers, Hawes (6.8) is actually above Speights (6.4), and both have been put to shame by Battie (17.1). Brand (25.0, 4th among PFs) and Lou (22.5, 5th among PGs) are carrying the Sixers in PER.
Remember in 08-09 when most Sixer fans were glad they had selected Speights over Hibbert? Not only did Speights play better that season but Speights was thought to have better "upside." Sad how things have turned out ...
Dorel Wright is looking like a good signing by Gold. St. thus far.
He has been a pretty productive player in the past I believe.
The problem has been staying healthy, kind of like Ariza for awhile in the beginning of his career.
If your Stern, a guy that probably wants a playoff team in a big market [New York], how do you punish them for this draft workout fiasco without shooting yourself, and the league, in the foot?