For the first time in 2011, and possibly the last time in the 2010-11 season, I took some time to compile differential production (DP) stats for a Sixers game, Game 3 of the playoff series with the Heat. The full explanation for DP can be found
here. DP measures which players made individual contributions to a team's offensive and defensive ratings for a game. For this game, the Sixers' team offensive DP (ODP) was +10 (94 points in 84 possessions), and their team defensive DP (DDP) was -17 (100 points in 83 possessions). Read on for the breakdown.
Here are the DP results for this game. Note that I didn't have access to the first couple minutes of the 3rd quarter, so I made educated guesses from the play-by-play as to what happened then. Comments follow below.
|
OFFENSE |
|
Pos.
Shots |
Neg.
Shots |
Off.
Reb |
Asst. |
TO |
Off.
Tot |
| Iguodala |
5.25 |
-8 |
1.5 |
4.25 |
-2 |
1 |
| Brand |
8.25 |
-6.5 |
2 |
0 |
-1 |
2.75 |
| Hawes |
4.5 |
-4.5 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
| Holiday |
10.5 |
-7 |
0.5 |
3 |
-2 |
5 |
| Meeks |
3 |
-3.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| Young |
1.25 |
-4.5 |
1 |
0 |
-2 |
-4.25 |
| L.Williams |
9.25 |
-7.5 |
0.5 |
1.75 |
0 |
4 |
| Turner |
1 |
-1.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-0.5 |
| Battie |
1.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
| Team |
0 |
0 |
1.5 |
0 |
-3 |
-1.5 |
| Totals |
44.5 |
-43 |
8.5 |
10 |
-10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(94/84) |
|
DEFENSE |
TOT |
|
Scored
On |
Stops |
Def
Reb |
ORA |
TO
Forced |
Def
Tot |
| AI |
-8 |
1 |
1.25 |
-1.5 |
2 |
-5.25 |
-4.25 |
| EB |
-13.25 |
5 |
4.25 |
-1 |
0 |
-5 |
-2.25 |
| SH |
-4.5 |
4 |
2.25 |
-3.5 |
0 |
-1.75 |
-1.25 |
| JH |
-11 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
-2 |
2 |
-8 |
-3 |
| JM |
-5.75 |
1.5 |
0.75 |
-1 |
2 |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
| TY |
-4.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
-1 |
3 |
1 |
-3.25 |
| LW |
-4.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0 |
0 |
-3 |
1 |
| ET |
-2 |
0 |
0.5 |
0 |
2 |
0.5 |
0 |
| TB |
-1.5 |
0 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0 |
-1.5 |
0.5 |
| Team |
-2 |
7 |
2.5 |
0 |
1 |
8.5 |
7 |
| Tot |
-57 |
24.5 |
14 |
-10.5 |
12 |
-17 |
-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(100/83)
|
|
Observations:- No surprise, Jrue was the offensive star of the game, +5 ODP. Lou made an important positive contribution as well. The way ODP is constructed, it is easier to accumulate negative points for negative shots than positive points for positive shots, so a positive differential between positive shots and negative shots indicates very good shooting. Unfortunately for Lou, almost all his negative shots occurred in the 4th quarter.
- As I've been arguing elsewhere, Iguodala was a net positive on offense in this game, with his passing contributions outweighing his poor shooting. Where he struggled was on defense, giving up his share of points and offensive rebounds; however, the whole team struggled on defense (see below).
- The defensive numbers are ugly (to be expected if the team had a cumulative -17 DDP). All the players share blame for the offensive rebounds allowed (ORA), with Hawes at the forefront. However, Hawes had a decent defensive game (-1.75 DDP was the best among the starters). Best DDP was Thad's +1, thanks to 3 turnovers forced (however, Thad had a team-worst -4.25 ODP). Worst DDP was Jrue's -8. He had his share of stops and turnovers forced, but he was scored on a lot.
To me, the numbers show that the offense was working in Game 3 for the most part. The team endured a dry spell in the 4th but nearly made up for it with scores on 7 straight possessions down the stretch. Where the team really struggled was in getting stops, especially in the 4th (Miami had 27 points on 18 possessions). Despite Ilgauskas' unbelievable 8 offensive rebounds, the Sixers did well when he was in (Ilgauskas was a -14 for the game). But Miami continued to offensive rebound in the 4th when Ilgauskas was out (7 by my count). The solution isn't as easy as "just box out better," because the Sixers are often scrambling to stop dribble penetration (usually after a P/R where the dribbler gets free). What the Sixers really lack is the physical, mobile big man who plays the P/R by forcing the dribbler wide, allowing the original defender time to recover. Then the defense isn't forced to rotate.
Anyhow, I've sent the full spreadsheet to Brian, so you can look through the quarter-by-quarter breakdowns. Hopefully this type of analysis has been illuminating this year (though altogether too infrequent).
Great work, as always, Statman. The true tragedy of this seemingly short, one-sided series is that we won't get a chance to really dive into the matchups and performance. Download Statman's spreadsheet here.
Great stuff. Quick question, how did you score that breakout where Jrue nearly stole the ball from LeBron and he got the pass to Wade for the dunk? Was that made hoop against Holiday?
On that play, I gave a -0.75 to Meeks (the closest to Wade) and a -0.25 to Iguodala for the turnover that started the play. On the previous play (the Jrue turnover that led to a LeBron fastbreak basket), I gave a -0.75 to Iguodala (even though he put a good challenge on the shot) and a -0.25 to Jrue. Not easy to assign defensive blame on fastbreaks.
Yeah, really tough to assign on those. That was sooooo close to being a huge play for the Sixers, Jrue jumped that perfectly. Still can't believe LeBron got the pass off.
Here's a thinking-man's question for your Easter morning (preview and game thread will be up around 11 am).
Assuming there's no miracle comeback in the NY/BOS series, Carmelo Anthony has now been to the playoffs 8 times in his career, he's been knocked out in the first round 7 times. Is that the resume of a "superstar?"
Career: 24.5ppg in the playoffs.
Say what you want about him, he can score points. I think this Miami series has shown us enough just how much self-delusion is invested in the all-around player accolades.
Star player. Yes. Superstar. No. (the word is thrown around carelessly these days)
All in all, Anthony remains a match-up nightmare, a talented yet inefficient gunner. A black hole for possessions if you will, that spits out points generously though not always justifying the input.
Get him a good coach that can get his ear, Anthony will fulfill his potential.
I would not mind having him on my team.
Not at all.
I'm not sure how seeing Wade and LeBron play huge all around games tells us about the relative value of the all around game vs. a guy who just scores.
true both are all around players, but it sure aint their rebounding, dishing and defense that's killing us.
if you wanted to sum up this series in one sentence;
we can't stop them.
I think everything else is a result of the former stated point.
That depends. McGrady really was a superstar and he never won a first round. But Melo's not a superstar.
Story: Sixers 'don't want to be embarrassed' with sweep:
http://ow.ly/4FStR
Column: Lockout could hinder Sixers' progress:
http://ow.ly/4FSH0
So James Jones is the guy who has taken Iggy out of the series, since when did he become better then less then an average defender
To make everybody happy, maybe the NBA should make teams without superstars ineligible for the playoffs. The Sixers, Blazers, Nuggets & Grizzlies would be out; the Clippers, Timberwolves, Warriors, Suns would be in.
Does anybody talk about teams anymore?
+1 on the "teams" thing.