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Game 85 Differential Production Stats

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For the first time in 2011, and possibly the last time in the 2010-11 season, I took some time to compile differential production (DP) stats for a Sixers game, Game 3 of the playoff series with the Heat.  The full explanation for DP can be found here.  DP measures which players made individual contributions to a team's offensive and defensive ratings for a game.  For this game, the Sixers' team offensive DP (ODP) was +10 (94 points in 84 possessions), and their team defensive DP (DDP) was -17 (100 points in 83 possessions).  Read on for the breakdown.
Here are the DP results for this game.  Note that I didn't have access to the first couple minutes of the 3rd quarter, so I made educated guesses from the play-by-play as to what happened then.  Comments follow below.

OFFENSE
Pos.
Shots
Neg.
Shots
Off.
Reb
Asst. TO Off.
Tot
Iguodala 5.25 -8 1.5 4.25 -2 1
Brand 8.25 -6.5 2 0 -1 2.75
Hawes 4.5 -4.5 0.5 0 0 0.5
Holiday 10.5 -7 0.5 3 -2 5
Meeks 3 -3.5 0.5 1 0 1
Young 1.25 -4.5 1 0 -2 -4.25
L.Williams 9.25 -7.5 0.5 1.75 0 4
Turner 1 -1.5 0 0 0 -0.5
Battie 1.5 0 0.5 0 0 2
Team 0 0 1.5 0 -3 -1.5
Totals 44.5 -43 8.5 10 -10 10
(94/84)
DEFENSE TOT
Scored
On
Stops Def
Reb
ORA TO
Forced
Def
Tot
AI -8 1 1.25 -1.5 2 -5.25 -4.25
EB -13.25 5 4.25 -1 0 -5 -2.25
SH -4.5 4 2.25 -3.5 0 -1.75 -1.25
JH -11 2.5 0.5 -2 2 -8 -3
JM -5.75 1.5 0.75 -1 2 -2.5 -1.5
TY -4.5 2.5 1 -1 3 1 -3.25
LW -4.5 1 0.5 0 0 -3 1
ET -2 0 0.5 0 2 0.5 0
TB -1.5 0 0.5 -0.5 0 -1.5 0.5
Team -2 7 2.5 0 1 8.5 7
Tot -57 24.5 14 -10.5 12 -17 -7
(100/83)

Observations:

  • No surprise, Jrue was the offensive star of the game, +5 ODP.  Lou made an important positive contribution as well.  The way ODP is constructed, it is easier to accumulate negative points for negative shots than positive points for positive shots, so a positive differential between positive shots and negative shots indicates very good shooting.  Unfortunately for Lou, almost all his negative shots occurred in the 4th quarter.
  • As I've been arguing elsewhere, Iguodala was a net positive on offense in this game, with his passing contributions outweighing his poor shooting.  Where he struggled was on defense, giving up his share of points and offensive rebounds; however, the whole team struggled on defense (see below).
  • The defensive numbers are ugly (to be expected if the team had a cumulative -17 DDP).  All the players share blame for the offensive rebounds allowed (ORA), with Hawes at the forefront.  However, Hawes had a decent defensive game (-1.75 DDP was the best among the starters).  Best DDP was Thad's +1, thanks to 3 turnovers forced (however, Thad had a team-worst -4.25 ODP).  Worst DDP was Jrue's -8.  He had his share of stops and turnovers forced, but he was scored on a lot. 
To me, the numbers show that the offense was working in Game 3 for the most part.  The team endured a dry spell in the 4th but nearly made up for it with scores on 7 straight possessions down the stretch.  Where the team really struggled was in getting stops, especially in the 4th (Miami had 27 points on 18 possessions).  Despite Ilgauskas' unbelievable 8 offensive rebounds, the Sixers did well when he was in (Ilgauskas was a -14 for the game).  But Miami continued to offensive rebound in the 4th when Ilgauskas was out (7 by my count).  The solution isn't as easy as "just box out better," because the Sixers are often scrambling to stop dribble penetration (usually after a P/R where the dribbler gets free).  What the Sixers really lack is the physical, mobile big man who plays the P/R by forcing the dribbler wide, allowing the original defender time to recover.  Then the defense isn't forced to rotate.

Anyhow, I've sent the full spreadsheet to Brian, so you can look through the quarter-by-quarter breakdowns.  Hopefully this type of analysis has been illuminating this year (though altogether too infrequent).




Great work, as always, Statman. The true tragedy of this seemingly short, one-sided series is that we won't get a chance to really dive into the matchups and performance. Download Statman's spreadsheet here.