A tick past the quarter point of the season and the Sixers find themselves at 9-12. We've heard all the excuses, we've seen glimpses of brilliance (though they've been few and far between) and we've seen long, long stretches of futility. Now is as good a time as any to take a look at the schedule, the stats and the players to see exactly how bad this team has been.
If you're having a good morning, you may not want to follow after the jump, this isn't pretty.
First, let's take a look at the teams they've played and the results:
'07-08 Playoff Teams- Toronto - Loss, 84-95
- @ Atlanta - Loss, 88-95
- @ Orlando - Loss, 88-98
- Utah - Loss, 80-93
- @ Toronto - Win, 106-96
- Orlando - Loss, 94-96
- @ Boston - Loss, 78-102
- Lakers - Loss, 102-114
- @ Detroit - Win, 96-91
- Record: 2-7
- Scoring: 90.7 PF, 97.8 PA
'07-08 Lottery Teams- Knicks - Win, 116-87
- Sacramento - Win, 125-91
- @ Miami - Loss, 83-106
- @ Indiana - Win, 94-92
- Oklahoma City - Win, 110-85
- @ Minnesota - Loss, 96-102
- Clippers - Win, 89-88
- Golden State - Win, 89-81
- @ Charlotte - Loss, 84-93
- Chicago - Loss, 92-103
- @ Chicago - Win, 103-95
- New Jersey - Loss, 84-95
- Record: 7-5
- Scoring: 97.1 PF, 93.2 PA
Alright, I understand the "It takes time to build chemistry," excuse. You might even be able to excuse the poor performance against playoff teams using that one. But a 7-5 record against the cellar dwellers? Some of these games they should be winning on nothing more than overwhelming talent.
Which brings us to the question, how? Team statistics do a pretty good job of painting the picture (table from
Basketball Reference):
The Sixers take more shots, make more shots (albeit at a much lower percentage) than their opponents. They get to the line more often and make more free throws (again at a lower percentage) than their opponents. They dominate in offensive rebounding and hold a slight edge in defensive rebounding. They are losing every other statistical category to their opponents.
Key Indicators- 2 fewer 3-pointers made per game.
- 1 fewer steal
- Sixers A/TO ratio: 1.24
- Opponents A/TO ratio: 1.40
The difference in threes made is a product of poor rotations as well as a lack of shooters. The other numbers are extremely frustrating. The Sixers should be one of the best defensive teams in the league. They have the quickness and athleticism to disrupt even the best offenses. Again, these numbers don't specifically point to bad defense by the team, they're also influenced by sloppy play on the offensive side of the ball.
If not for their proficiency on the boards, the offensive boards especially, this team would be getting blown out of the water on a nightly basis. They average almost 5 more shots per game and 1.5 more free throw attempts. Now imagine if they could shoot either at a decent clip.
Finally, let's take a look at the players. I'm running short on time, so we'll use PER as the metric.
Player - This Year's PER/Last Year's/Hollinger's projected PER- Andre Miller - 17.4/18.57/15.79
- Andre Iguodala - 14.92/19.09/18.74
- Thad Young - 13.61/16.54/16.66
- Elton Brand - 16.32/23.17/none (23.1 was Brand's last full season, '06-07)
- Samuel Dalembert - 11.23/15.52/15.12
- Lou Williams - 14.09/16.80/18.01
- Willie Green - 11.68/13.02/11.50
- Reggie Evans - 8.17/10.99/11.11
- Marreese Speights - 17.54/na/na
- Royal Ivey - 10.80/9.00/8.83
- Theo Ratliff - 2.92/12.01/a
- Donyell Marshall - 34.48/9.70/na
- Kareem Rush - 9.00/10.06/9.52
A couple of notes. PER was weighted so a 15.00 would be an average player for the position. Meaning, an average starting five would have a combined PER of 75.00. The Sixers' starting five PER: 73.48. And as we've noted several times this season, that's the unit that's played the best for the team.
Royal Ivey and Donyell Marshall are the only two players on the roster who have improved upon their PER from the previous season. Andre Miller, Willie Green and Royal Ivey are the only players who are outperforming Hollinger's projection for them.
The sad thing is that this is not an old roster. Andre Miller and possibly Elton Brand are the only guys who you'd expect a drop from due to age. Iguodala, Thad, Dalembert, Williams and Green are all on the up-side of their career. They should be improving.
Needless to say, this has been a very, very disappointing 1/4 of the season. The Sixers will play a home-and-home with the steamrolling Cleveland Cavaliers starting tomorrow night. They need to right the ship quickly, or someone's head is going to roll. Probably Mo's.
If Mo goes, that won't be the end of it. Ed will shake up the roster as well. Frustrating year, indeed.
I'm not so sure. If Ed believes in the roster he built, he could bring someone in to work with it as constructed. If Mo goes, he's clearly saying the coaching is the problem.
Yeah, and he'd probably be right... at least in part. The team should be doing better and it's pretty clear that Mo has something to do with the fact that they aren't. They're underperforming and the coach has to answer for that.
Problem #2 is the fact that Iggy's playing out of position. Let's be fair... he's a TERRIBLE shooter. When he makes an 18 footer, you can chock it up to luck and not much more. If he's gonna play 40 minutes per game, at least 32 of them HAVE TO be at small forward. Of course, that means we need a genuinely good shooting guard on the roster and we don't have one. Kudos to Willie Green for having a pretty decent season (for Willie Green), but he's obviously not the answer... and everyone knows that, including Mo. As such, he's been rotating in Iggy, Willie, LouWill (ughh!), and occasionally Kareem Rush at that position. That's four different guys and not one of them is even close to a starting SG on a good team.
Off topic - Lou Williams' PER shows the exact problem of PER. If a player shoots better than 30.4% on 2 point FGs and better than 21.4% on 3 point FGs, his PER goes up. So, the more you shoot, the better off you are assuming you can shoot that, which isn't very difficult. Lou is where PER "gets it wrong" IMO. His PER is as high as it is because he shoots at a disgusting rate.
It is funny to note that Speights has been the best Sixer. I agree with many of the findings... most notably that Thad hasn't been good this year and has regressed in many aspects of his game.
Donyell has been the best Sixer, and the best player in the league, by PER, I believe :)
Lou put together a couple of good games in a row. Let's hope he can keep it up.
Mo is a genuinely nice guy and was a good PG for the Sixers back in the day. Good coach ? Not so sure...
This team is worse in almost every category than virtually the same team as last year PLUS Elton Brand.
Its a no brainer that Cheeks is going to have to go and the team will have to make a move for a shooting guard. If Sammy,Willie and Reggie and a draft pick can do that its time to make the move.
If we are committed to Elton Brand...and I believe we are...than the window I see is about 3 years.
Everyone on this team should be considered trade-able except Speights, Thad and maybe Andre Miller.
This team over the next 10 games will go 4-6.....which would put them at 13-18.
You guys look at the next 10 games and tell me if you can find more than 4 wins...this is a bad team folks. Time to rip it down....
Ed didn't bring in Andre Miller - he's not Ed's guy - and he's gone in the off season.
I'd still like to see the starting 4 and Speights a bit more and see how that group goes - what with Sam's comments today