The Sixers won 12 games at home last year. When Doug Collins took over, that was the first stat he pulled out. He made it a priority for this team to protect their home floor. After last night's win over the Suns, the Sixers are playing .667 ball at home, but that doesn't even tell the whole story.
Consider this. In the first 20 days of the season, the Sixers played five home games. One win over Indiana and four losses to Miami, Atlanta, Cleveland and Toronto. A 1-4 start at home with two losses to sub-.500 teams.
Since that Toronto loss, the Sixers are 13-3 at the WFC. The three losses were a one-point game vs. the Celtics, a 12-point loss to the Lakers (which they led after three quarters), and a blip. The Pacers beat the Sixers in Iguodala's first game back from injury.
Of the 13 wins, the Sixers have beaten Chicago, Utah, Portland and New Orleans. All playoff teams. They also beat nine sub-.500 teams, including MIL twice, CHA twice, LAC and PHO.
Wins and losses are great, but as we've been reminded several times this season, the W/L record can be deceptive. So let's take a look at the team's home/road splits in all the advanced stats:
Those splits are absolutely amazing. Check out the differences here:
- Home OFR would be 10th in the league, away 28th.
- Home DFR would be 8th, away 21st.
- Home eFG would be 12th, away 28th.
- Home TO% would be 1st, away 6th.
- Home ORB% would be 21st, away 23rd.
- Home FTF would be 14th, away 20th.
- Home eFG allowed would be 3rd, away 14th.
- Home TO% forced would be 19th, away dead last.
- Home DRB% would be 8th, away 13th.
- Home FTF allowed would be 18th, away 26th.
- Home pace would be the slowest in the league, away 19th-fastest.
The most-dramatic difference here is the OFR/DFR differential. +6.7 at home. That would be fifth-best in the league. On the road, they're -6.2, good for third-worst in the league.
Obviously, we're comparing the Sixers splits to the averages for home and away for the rest of the teams in the league, which simply isn't fair. So let's take a more complete look. Below you'll find two charts. The first contains the raw splits for each team. Offensive Efficiency Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) at home and on the road, Defensive Efficiency Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) at home and on the road. Then differential (OFR - DFR) at home and on the road. Then spread. The lower the number, the worse a team plays on the road as compared to at home. The second chart ranks each team in each category, 1-30.
OK, so this is a more-accurate look at where the Sixers stand. Currently, they're the 10th-best team in the league at home (better than OKC, UTA and DAL) to name a few, and they're 19th on the road. Only two teams have a worse spread than the Sixers, Denver and Washington. Denver is very, very good at home and pretty much even with the Sixers on the road. Washington is atrocious on the road, and merely below average at home.
The Sixers have 20 games left at home, if they keep up this play on their own floor, you could expect a 13-7 or 14-6 record over those games. It's probably going to take that kind of effort, maybe more, to finish the season at or near .500.
Of course, the flip side of the coin is how dreadful they've been on the road. 18 games remain away from the friendly confines, and if they continue to play at the same level on the road, 5 wins would be a stretch.
If the Sixers are going to truly right the ship, they're going to have to keep up their excellent play at home and find some way to turn things around on the road. How likely are those two things to happen? Well, over their last 9 road games (2-7 record), they've only been outscored by 18 points. They've lost 5 of those games by 4 points or less. Yet again, we're back to the inability to finish.
I'm not 100% sold on OFR/DFR differential as the be-all-end-all measure of how good a team is, but it's the best we've got. If you want to poke holes in it, think about the disastrous effect the 45-point loss to the Bulls had on the Sixers road differential. Or the outrageous boost to home DFR the New Orleans win provided. When a team has played so many close games, the rare lopsided games can really skew the data.
Yeah it appears that the difference is exactly what i expected it to be.The truly amazing thing is the fact that everything was completely the opposite last year. How did that happen?
Anyway i think 13-7 is a low ball expected record for the rest of the home games. If they can keep up playing the way they've played over the past two months at home 15-5 is certainly within reach (if not better). The schedule suggests that too. As for road play i agree that if they keep this up they won't win more than 5 games.
Btw it's late January. This is the time of year when the Sixers start playing much better as evidenced with their record over the past few years.
Collins: 'Fan is short for fanatic':
http://ow.ly/3JOME
I love this quote: "If I start getting into psychological profiles of fans, I really will be a mess." Agree 100%.
But I think Collins is wrong if he thinks Iguodala will get (positive) recognition from Philly fans if the Sixers win more consistently. Even as Iguodala (with Andre Miller) was leading the charge into the playoffs in 07-08 and 08-09, even as Iguodala played superbly at the ends of games for the entire 2nd half of 08-09 (coming through in 7 or 8 end-of-game situations, no exaggeration), Philly fandom was still 75% against him. Now it's more like 95%, and some of the criticism can only be described as the epitome of irrationality. So it's good that Collins doesn't pay attention to it ...
I don't think Iguodala will get much love until his becomes a "wingman" to a high profile star on a winning team.
So if Turner suddenly morphs into Kobe, and the Sixers are winning 55 games, Iguodala will be showered with Pippen-love.
But I doubt that type of scenario plays out in Philly... but maybe if he is traded.
Brian, interesting topic because I was thinking about this topic. They have to get this win in Toronto. My concern is Toronto has lost 8 in a row. I suppose the Sixers will just have to make it 9 but by any stretch it won't be easy even though Toronto is a bad team. I think they may have thrown in the towel.
One of the stats above really confuses me: PACE.
What exactly does pace indicate (I know what it measures.) Some backround:
The Sixers are currently 19th in the NBA in Pace. Since the Iverson trade they have been 20th-26th. In later Iverson's last 2 full years they were 2nd and 6th for Pace. Also, in the successful Larry Brown years they where mid 20's for Pace.
And this year, at home they are dead last for Pace. And yet they are in the top 5 for fast break points...
So is pace an indirect measure of solid defense and low TO's on offense? Because if you force teams to work for a shot and you don't turn the ball over, then your pace will be slow. But on the flip side, they are forcing less turnovers, so that also slows down the pace.
Anyhow, the pace last night was blistering (at least subjectively.) Really fun basketball to watch. But how come this team is currently doing best when the measured pace is slowest in the league?
A bunch of things influence pace, and fast break points isn't really a great indicator. Offensive rebounding slows the pace down, good defensive rebounding speeds it up. Turnovers speed it up. Typically, solid half-court defense slows it down.
The Sixers have been a slow team with a ton of fast break points for years now, because they don't get their fast break points by running off makes, they get them by either forcing turnovers and converting, or by having one of their smalls get a defensive rebound and push the ball immediately. They're opportunistic runners, whereas a team like GSW, DEN, PHO and NYK just run no matter what, and take early shots that aren't really fast breaks sometimes, just quick offense.
If you watch the Sixers, they rarely take early shots in the clock unless they're on a legitimate break, they always run some clock.
Does that clear it up a little?
Yeah it makes sense. And I've been truly surprised that the Sixers lead the league in fewest TO's. Iguodala has gone from a career 2:1 A/TO to better than 3:1. And Lou and Jrue have also taken care of the ball (although Jrue still has room for improvement, but he's 20.)
I think the "slowest paced coach in history" label of Collins' scared me a bit this summer. But seeing his offense has ameliorated these concerns. he does not take the air out of the ball like LB- who would focus on floor balance (to protect against the break) at the expense of free-flowing offense.
Good question from tk and great answer from brian
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/1/24/1952725/nba-pace-speed-spurs-suns-knicks
That is a really interesting article- esp in regards to SA, and how they are a good defense despite teams shooting early in the clock against them. I wonder if they somehow encourage teams to "settle" for early jumpers?
By these "speed" measures, the Sixers are middle of the pack, and have a similar offensive and defensive "speed."
But the main limitation of this "speed" metric is that it does not take into account fast break points and fast break points allowed- since those are not normal possessions.
And in the Sixers case it balances out- since they score a bunch of fast break points, but don't give up that many (due to low TO's) so the total number of fast break possessions is probably close to average.
Yeah, I saw that the other day. Was it the Spurs who somehow get teams to take bad shots early in the shot clock at a high frequency?
Interesting way to look at things, by % of shots taken at various times in the shot clock, and compare that to overall pace.
Not exactly a surprise based on Thorn's recent statements... but per the Sporting News the Sixers have taken Iguodala and Brand off the market and are looking to make a playoff push.
Courtesy of LB who link to: http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2011-01-25/with-sixers-going-strong-iguodala-brand-off-the-market
"According sources around the league, Philadelphia is not eager to make major roster changes now, and both Iguodala and Brand are all but certain to be with the team throughout this season."
Well I'm just delighted that they're keeping the core of this sub .500, 7th seed together, it's really going places.
could be a .500 sixth seed. stop being so pessimistic. could be worse, we could have cousins.
I'd prefer Andray Blatche if you don't mind
How long is his contract?
Well... I guess it is just possible that if Jrue makes major strides next year, we could be a 45-win team and a big-time free agent would take us seriously. There, optimism.
Yeah, Dwight Howard will be forcing his way here.
He'll be taking his services to South Philly.
(sorry, not very original.)
Blake Griffin, RFA in 2013!!!!!
Yeah, I definitely don't see that, or Griffin, happening. Jrue would basically have to get as good as Rose for those guys to take us seriously. Or we'd need to take an elite team to seven games in the first round, and that by itself probably wouldn't be enough.
lol, Damn you sixers organization.
We're all suckers for following the sixers.
Yeah, that's up on the reading list too. I do find it kind of funny that "Brand is no longer available," like teams were beating down the Sixers door to get their hands on Brand. :)
Yay for short term thinking
You'll change your tune when the Sixers are allowed to void a contract in the new CBA (and they void Nocioni's).
Yeah - that changes my tune sure :)
Looks more like "they are not avaliable for nothing" to me. Specially Iggy, who would be interesting for several teams if they could have only by giving expiring
Yeah. My guess is they are worth nothing in pre-CBA run-up. So they would rather hold onto talented players than just give them away.
you'd pick nocioni's contract to void?
sarcasm
Read a pretty good philly.com article today pertaining to Dre... my favorite thing about the commenters on there is that they come up with names like "Brickadala" and think they are geniuses
I know sports fans are stupid everywhere (particularly NFL fans), but god are there some idiots here
GoSixer's "Around the Web" is also enjoyable that way. There's a lot of fun notions rattling around in people's heads. Like, for example, how Iguodala with his "myriad" injuries is "hindering the development" of Jodie Meeks.
Bob, I know exactly what you're referencing, specifically the Jodie Meeks thing. It is funny, and shows just how impossible it is for someone to truly cover more than 2 or 3 NBA teams. There's not enough time in the week to cover all these teams effectively...
I think on the next DepressedFan field trip you should hold up ironic signs that say, "Andre, stop hindering Jodie Meeks's development!" (Or better yet, Craig Brackins's development.) And, "Spencer Hawes: he's so ball-friendly."
Would no doubt result in management giving Spencer hawes a 4 year 40 million contract.
NBA
less popular than college football
ANd NASCAR
http://sports.yahoo.com/nascar/blog/from_the_marbles/post/Seeya-Kobe-Auto-racing-is-more-popular-than-NB?urn=nascar-312354
Blatche had some amazing comments today.
On how his bad play isn't his fault (but he's not making any excuses):
"Always I give 100 percent effort. I'm the person that nobody ever says 'Well, this is what's bothering Dray today.' Nobody knows that I'm sick. Nobody knows that my shoulder is really messed up. Nobody knows that my knee really is bothering me. Nobody is paying attention to what's wrong with me. Everybody just cares about, well, 'Why is he playing so bad?' There's a reason why people play bad."
"But I'm not going to make no excuse. I'm just going to play."
On how the fans don't treat him nice:
"We [he and Arenas] had a discussion, and this is what he said to me. 'Just as fast as they turned on me, it's going to happen to you.' I took it as a joke, but I actually see what he's talking about. Everybody is looking for someone to blame, and I feel like I'm turning into that person just like Gil."
"If you're a Wizards fan, that means you cheer for everybody. That doesn't mean you'll come to a game and you shout 'Trade him!' If you're part of a Wizards organization fan group, that means you cheer for the team."
On why the Wizards suck:
"We don't deal with it. Nobody says nothing. That's the problem right there. We're too much friends to each other, and we're scared to say anything to each other because nobody wants to hurt anyone's feelings."
Yes, the reason they're bad is they're too good friends to hurt each other's feelings with criticism of their lousy play.
"But I'm not going to make no excuse.
Dray caught you baby - he's obviously making excuses and hoping that no one points out that his grasp of the English language indicates that while he may have graduated high school they didn't require him to go to class
They could not have gotten rid of Arenas soon enough.
Speaking of which, while the Carter/Gortat/Pietrus for Richardson/Turkoglu deal undoubtedly has made Orlando a little better in the short term, did Lewis for Arenas really make any sense?
They might have made their second mistake in making one too many moves. The first was in '09 trading resigning Hedo for bringing in Bass/matching Gortat's Dallas offer.
Lewis was really bad, but at least they could play him at the 4. I guess you'd rather have a bad guy to provide depth up front then overloading the backcourt. They probably thought they could rejuvenate Gil, hasn't happened yet. I would say that trade is looking like a complete loss for them.
Lewis was ridiculously passive, but he can still make shots. And with all the offensive additions, he could just be an extraordinarily overpaid three-point shooter, so that could work. Arenas, apparently, cannot make shots anymore, but that doesn't stop him from taking them.
Agree. But they are stuck trying to "Lebron" Howard into being happy. And it did not work for Cleveland.
Well, I think the net total of their acquisitions is a lot better than Antwan Jamison.
I really don't think this is written in stone. When Howard goes out, they're a putrid defensive team. They have absolutely no size behind him anymore. Take a look at the Sixers game vs. them to see what happens when he's on the bench.
They've beaten a bunch of bad teams since the trade, but outside of a win over the Celtics in like their second game, they've lost every game against decent teams, and they also just lost to the Pistons.
They gave away their best defensive wing in Pietrus, second best in VC (even though he's no big loss imo), and all their depth in the front court in that trade. I don't see that team winning more than a round in the playoffs, and depending on matchups, they may get upset.
Please - that team is all attitude and it isn't arenas fault.
Watching Wall do his dances all over the floor as his team blows another game is ridiculous. Dude is more flash than substance
Listened to the interview and he wrapped up by telling the fans, "I'm sorry I had a broken foot over the summer, I'm sorry I'm still getting back into my flow... I'm sorry I'm not perfect."
10, 5 and 13 for Wall tonight. On 8 shots.
See, you say "on 8 shots" when you're talking about one of your guys, but you leave out the 13 possessions part of the equation. If Jrue had that game, all you'd be talking about is the turnovers.
Still, not a terrible game for Wall, in his team's 31st loss of the season. I'm going to have to dig up that long post you wrote about how true superstars never, ever play on really bad teams. Otherwise, they aren't true superstars. Their superstar-ness elevates even the worst roster to at least respectability.
DeMarcus Cousins Update!!!!: The game isn't over for the Kings, but Cousins has seen all the action he's going to see. The good news is that he only had 1 turnover, a spectacular night for him. The bad news is that he fouled out in only 21 minutes of action. That makes it 11 personal fouls in 35 minutes over the past two games, an extraordinary accomplishment.
Cousins did manage to score 9 points on 12 possessions, though, so he's got that going for him.
Also, DeMarcus has now put together a string of 14 consecutive games in which his turnovers + personal fouls = at least 5. Congrats, big man!