To be more specific, how much can we expect from Evan Turner this season. Forget about PPG, RPG, minutes. I want to take a look at what rookies over the past couple seasons have produced in a more meaningful way for their teams, and then we can take a guess as to where Turner will slot in among them.
I'll break it down for you by individual stats:
Estimated Wins Added (PER-based)
Each of these stats uses a different formula, with different weights for different areas and different biases. What they all have in common is a goal, to take the available numbers and somehow translate them into wins. Wins Produced values rebounds more than the others, PER doesn't punish volume shooters enough (in my opinion), the route is different, but the end result is the same. How much did a player help his team win, that's the goal.
Take a look at the numbers above. We have the top 15 rookies for the past 4 seasons in WP and WS, and the past two seasons in EWA (only 2 years in EWA because ESPN makes it impossibly difficult to cull the stats). The best rookie over the past four seasons in WP was Jamario Moon, believe it or not, with 9.7 wins produced. In Win Shares, Luis Scola edged out Marc Gasol for the honors, and Tyreke Evans led all rooks over the past two seasons in EWA with 9.7 last season.
The lesson here is that a very, very good rookie season from Evan Turner would equate to about half the wins produced Iguodala had last season (14.5), maybe 2/3 of the Win Shares (6.7) and 75% of the EWA (11.6). No rookie in the past four seasons has even come close to Iguodala's production level from last season.
That's not the only lesson, though. Careers aren't made in rookie seasons alone. We don't have to look any further than the star of Team USA, Kevin Durant. Durant's rookie season was horrible by each of these measures: -0.63 WP and 2.3 WS (EWA is not calculated by ESPN for 07-08). I don't need to tell you how quickly Durant turned things around.
Now you've got the numbers, my question is, where do you expect Turner to fall in his rookie season? Will he be one of the better producing rookies over the past four seasons? Will he make this year's top-15 list? Will he be atop the list? Let me know in the comments.