 How Much Is Iguodala Worth?
Over the past twenty-four hours I've read just about every forum thread, blog post, article and comment on the Andre Iguodala situation and there seems to be a common theme regarding the rumored 5 year/$72.6M contract he may or may not have been offered/negotiated/whatever. The theme is that the Sixers are paying for potential, rather than production.
This struck me as a bit odd, considering the guy is coming off a season in which he averaged 19.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.1 steals and 0.6 blocks. Those aren't exactly bad numbers, in fact, they're pretty impressive. If the Sixers are truly paying him on potential, what do you expect the guy to become? If he improves across the board, wouldn't he be a max-contract guy? I thought taking a look at exactly where Iguodala matches up with the other players in the league, based on production, and comparing how much they make to Andre's rumored deal may shed some light on the situation. We'll take a look at the numbers after the jump.
We could break this down by points, rebounds, assists, shooting percentage, opposing player's PER, etc., but the simplest way to do it will be to use PER. I thought about using win shares, but I couldn't find a list of the top 40, only the top 20, so PER it is. Iguodala's 19.05 PER was 35th in the league, among players who averaged more than 25 minutes per game, below we'll take a look at the average yearly salaries of the top 40.
Green = below average salary for slot Blue = salary within $1M of average for slot Red = above average salary for slot And here are the averages (not including rookie deals)
So what does this tell us? First of all, the only metric used here was PER, to simplify things. In my opinion, PER doesn't credit individual defense nearly enough, so if I were making a list of the 40-best players in the league, it would differ from this list. That being said, this is a fairly good representation. According to the numbers, Iguodala's rumored contract would pay him the rate of a player ranked in the high teens/low twenties on the list above, which may not be a stretch when you take defense into account. Based purely on the numbers, though, it does appear as though this deal is out-of-line. As is usually the case with statistics, I started out with one goal in mind and came out finding a couple of other interesting topics of discussion. According to these numbers, the best contract in terms of +/- average salary/slot is Manu Ginobli, who is making $6.8M less than the average for slots 1-10 (not including rookie deals). The worst would be none other than Allen Iverson, who makes a whopping $8.19M above the average for slots 21-30. Some bargains were had this Summer, especially the reported 5 year/$40M deal Jose Calderon signed ($5.75M below ave/slot). Now, the question becomes can Iguodala move up 15-20 spots on this list with Elton Brand in place as the team's centerpiece? His shooting efficiency should go through the roof this season since he won't be the focal point of the opposing team's defense, but we also need to worry about the position change, which will probably cut into his rebounding numbers. Statistical Note: These numbers are OK to use as a general guide, but they aren't gospel. I used the average yearly salary for the remaining years on the players' contracts. Since most contracts are back-loaded, this means a guy with only one year left on his deal will be overvalued, while someone who just signed a deal will be undervalued. 
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Very interesting, much appreciated
Nice article Brian. The Sixers are paying(rumored) on potential for sure. Is he a lock down defender like bruce bowen ? probably not...can he score it like Iverson ? No.
But he is a much better defender than Iverson and a much better offensive threat than Bowen. Many of the guys on that list are not particularly good defenders and still get paid a ton. Its funny that a team will pay a ton for offense(Iverson) but barely anything for defense(In comparison)---(Bowen, Posey)
And yet...defense wins championships...go figure.
There are some rare players who can do it all (bryant, garnett, pierce) but they are max players. Andres not that...but he is very good and could very well become Scottie Pippen...which if hes ever that 15 mil a year would be a bargain.
I still think that figure of $70M/5 years has to be off, but even if it isn't, I still think you have to sign him. In a perfect world, you'd see him play the two with this team for a season before giving him a long term deal, but as Joe said in an earlier thread, at this point having him sign a qualifying offer is basically a slap in the face and you can bet he'll bolt if there's a halfway decent offer from another team next Summer.
Something you have to take into account is that Iguodala is very, very, very good. He isn't a marksman from downtown, but I really think he's better than anyone else they're going to be able to get in free agency next season, that's if they have any money to spend. The biggest question mark next Summer will be Andre Miller, if they have two huge spots to fill, this whole think could fall apart quickly.
Iguodala's play is really responsible for Elton Brand being here. They have to lock him down and keep this core intact.
Hi Brian,
Excellent article. I think having the defensive pressure off him will let Iggy be much more efficient. I just hope he improves his dialing from downtown over the summer. If he can improve his outside shot with Brand getting the lion's share of the D's attention I think he'll really do well. :-)
That seems to be the consensus. I just want this to be settled quickly, either way. This team has finally turned a corner, we don't need any soap operas dragging into September.
Jason Smith apparently hurt his knee. That is word on the forums at least.
I am tired of the Iguodala contract stuff right now. Good article.
I hope it's nothing serious. Can't find anything on it.
Bad news. Torn ACL
http://www.nba.com/sixers/news/smith_knee_injury.html
The bloggers have it right; Jason Smith is presumably done for the year with a torn ACL ...
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20080808_Sixer_Jason_Smith_injures_left_knee.html
Going back to the class of 2004, you have to think Dwight Howard is the best of the lot. Andre is probably close to, if not, the best of the rest but not close enough to Dwight Howard to deserve equal money.
The odd thing is how little feedback we're hearing about the negotiations from both sides..
I'm taking that as a good sign. If Iguodala was in the press saying the Sixers don't respect him, or the Sixers were saying he's asking for way too much I'd be worried.
Out of that draft class, I think Iguodala is the 2nd best behind Howard.
Iguodala couldn’t carry Pippen’s jock!
Never in a million years, it’s not even a consideration.
is there a way to get pippen's PER in his year without Jordan against iggy's PER last year? I'd be curious to see.
Here's a comparison.
Pippen was 28 in '93-94 when Jordan was proving he couldn't hit a curve, and/or serving his under-the-table gambling suspension. This was actually Pippen's best season, based on PER (23.2). For the most part, he hovered right around 20 as the second banana on those great teams.
Iguodala is not at Pippen's level, but I do believe we'll see a big jump in his numbers as the #2 option this season. Time will tell.
oops. I posted a similar thing a minute ago without refreshing. Sorry.
I think it was filtered out since my comment isn't here. Probably because I posted the exact same link... lol.
It got caught by the filter (3 links in a comment gets caught). I pushed it through. Good points about 3rd and 4th seasons.
Here you go max.. link
I think these are more applicable comparisons to make though... 3rd year and 4th season
In pippens 3rd or 4th year, PIPPEN coulndt carry Pippens jock ;)
Give it time...
Griz make $58 million offer to Hawks’ Smith
http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2008/aug/08/griz-sign-hawks-smith-offer-sheet/
I don't think he'll sign that. If he does, the Hawks will match, easily, and get him for below-market value. I still think he's a QO guy.
He signed what's Qo guy and don't laugh!
QO = qualifying offer.
I have a post up on him signing the offer sheet. I'm surprised. If ATL doesn't match, I'll be shocked.
me too Memphis did Atlanta a favor!
and the 76ers a favor
the sixers just signed iguodala for six years 80 million. that would make the salary on average 13 mil instead of 14.5. That contract is higher than deng's but at least it is lower than rumored. now they have brand and iguodala locked up for the next 5 seasons.