Like the vast majority of my sports-related wishes, I don't think this one is going to come true. But wish I will. One thing would make this New Orleans/Philadelphia game extremely enjoyable for me, seeing how Jrue Holiday stacks up with the premier point guard in the league, Chris Paul. You can even take it a step further and look forward to Jrue on Paul's backup, and Jrue's college teammate Darren Collison. Unfortunately, if Iverson is healthy I expect Jrue's minutes to take a major hit. Preview and game thread after the jump.
Let's catch up on the team's advanced stats before we dive into the preview:
I added some color to display how the Sixers have performed relative to league average (roughly 106.6) in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.
And now, your preview.
The Hornets are coming in riding a 6-game win streak, the last two of which came against the dregs of the league (New Jersey and Washington), they're also playing the tail end of a back-to-back.
New Orleans surrounds the best ballhandler in the league with two guys who can really shoot it from deep (Devin Brown and Peja), a power forward who can, and does, step out to about 20 feet and a center who's capable of scoring down on the blocks. It's a pretty potent mix, when they're all healthy. It's a lineup the Sixers will most likely have a ton of trouble keeping in check.
The starting lineup will have huge matchup problems, beginning with who will guard Chris Paul. Neither Iverson, nor Williams nor Green (depending on Iverson's availability) will be able to keep Paul from wreaking havoc in the lane. Whoever gets the off guard will need to stick with Brown on the perimeter. Same goes for Peja. Thad cannot handle West (I'll get back to this in a moment) and Okafor has a big strength advantage on Sammy around the rim.
Assuming the nonsensical starting lineup, I'm going to say one adjustment should be made immediately. Thad should be switched out on Peja, who isn't a threat in any way other than standing behind the three-point line and jacking bombs. Iguodala should be put on West. I mentioned in an earlier post how Iguodala fares pretty well when he's at a size mismatch, I'd put that to the test and use Iguodala's strength and quickness to limit West's mismatch. The way I see it, putting Iguodala on Brown or Peja is a waste of his talents, they're both basically stationary threats out on the perimeter. Putting him on West is the best matchup you can get with the small ball lineup.
On the offensive end, Paul loves to play the passing lanes, so perimeter passes must be crisp. Peja is a complete zero and Iguodala absolutely must exploit that mismatch. By exploit, I don't mean one dribble to back him off and an 18-foot jumper, either. I mean take him right to the rack, make Okafor commit to helping and then getting easy dunks for Sammy/Brand/Speights. Make New Orleans pay for every minute they go with Peja on the floor. If New Orleans switches the matchup, then Thad needs to attack him the same way.
Since West is a four who can stretch the floor a bit, I'd expect Brand's minutes to be low, as usual. Speights has been the forgotten man, recently, but he could do some serious work with West on him, but God forbid we see Speights at the four and Sam at the five, even for a couple minutes.
Anyway, I'm not going to outright predict a loss, simply because Paul played 42 minutes last night, and my predicted losses have been huge reverse jinxes all season long. I'm going to say the Sixers will be within 10 points in the second half, either way. That's as bold as I'm willing to get these days.
Key to The Game: Threes, defending them.
If __________ the Sixers will win: The Sixers make Chris Paul a scorer first. I'd rather have him shooting floaters than hitting wide-open shooters for threes. Make Paul take 20+ shots and take your chances.
This is your game thread. The tip is at 7 p.m. I'll be right here throughout, so join me for some lighthearted Eddie J. bashing.
Honestly, I don't expect Jrue to do any better at keeping CP3 out of the lane than anyone else. It is sort of like how no one could slow down AI offensively in his prime. But it should be interesting to see Jrue try :)
dregs of the league huh?
Sixers fit into that category pretty well
Absolutely.
I'm sure most people have seen David Berri's article by now.
Summary:
Thad is horrible now whereas he was average 2 years ago and just bad last year.
Lou improved randomly.
Sammy and Iguodala are the team's best players.
The Sixers obviously should have taken Lawson over Jrue.
Nothing earth shattering there...
"The Sixers obviously should have taken Lawson over Jrue.
"
The article's only talking about this years productivity and not making an effort to speculate about the future.
Anyone making their draft determinations now is missing a considerable amount of data.
It takes into account this year and college.
The 2 weren't close in terms of productivity in college and they aren't close in the pros. It is likely they will never be close ever. That is just a fact. (speaking in WP48 terms)
Of course WP48 doesn't take defense into account beyond blocks and rebounds, correct?
Not entirely. There is a team defensive adjustment made as well.
It is likely they will never be close ever. That is just a fact. (speaking in WP48 terms)
Ever? Or you mean in the 2009/2010 NBA season, because if you mean beyond this season, even Nostradamus can't predict what they'll be at.
It is likely they will never be close in terms of productivity according to WP48.
I didn't say it was definite. It is just likely.
What you said was that it's a fact that won't likely ever be close when you've got less than half a season and a major age difference between the two players - you've made your decision...
There is a very large gap and their college numbers also clearly indicated Lawson being a very good player and Jrue not being one.
I can root, root, root for Jrue and love his defense, but I don't expect Jrue to be a superior player ever in terms of WP48.
Dean Oliver, the stathead who's Four Factors numbers you hold in high esteem also thought Lawson was a no-brainer.
Last summer we were looking for someone who had a good, reliable jumpshot, especially from deep. Lawson was the man. Plus he could run an offense and play solid defense (reminder 8 steals -- EIGHT! ONE GAME! -- in the ncaa finals last season).
Anything is possible. Hey, maybe you've screwed yourself into a corner of irrelevancy by locking your wagon with crazy glue to the one-track brace-licker-doesn't-know-a-thing-about-basketball narrative. All possible. But looking at all the numbers, it's unlikely Jrue will match Lawson for overall productivity. If you believe in the power of statistics, unlikeliness can indeed be a fact. You don't have anything to apologize for, Joe.
I for one am still rooting for the team, praying that they are starting to figure a few things out. I don't think that last Raptors game was as bad as the thread made it out to be (one of the league's highest scoring teams did not blow out what's made out to be the world's worst basketball defense). I think that was a very encouraging sign of the beginnings of a turnaround. Game night is really starting to turn into how-will-brian-get-it-wrong-this-time night. In this case, it's a good thing.
GO SIXERS!
I'm shocked the guy who works for the team that traded for him thinks Lawson was a no-brainer.
And gee, Allen Iverson must be the best defender ever considering he holds the postseason record for steals in a game.
Welcome back, don't change the nickname around.
What does that even mean? Oliver was working for Denver before the draft.
wow, guy. can't believe you did that. i've never seen a blog host do that before. the normal rule is i can be whoever i want to be. nice.
depressedfan.com: where identity outing and basketball demogogary happens.
Is that anything like demagoguery?
I need to look some things up, but on its base I'll just say interesting, and I disagree with some of his logic.
I think WP48 is his formula much like Hollinger loves PER and while Berri is more grounded in an understanding of statistics and such it's still not perfect. What I find interesting is that Dalember and Iguodala alone are going to be responsible for about 90% of the wins that Miller/Dalember/Iguodala together were responsible for last year?
It's another number that probably ignores defense a lot more than it should.
I am very much looking forward to the light-hearted EJ bashing :) The game itself is secondary for me...haha.
Can I get an Amen to that Berri article!
Did the guy read nearly every post I have made since the draft and the season started before writing that? I must admit I have been masquerading as D Berri:)
But seriously, it's the same argument I've been making here forever. This coach may not be the one, but it won't matter who's coach until the personnel is seriously changed. Losing the head of the snake in Miller is so unsung. And we all know how I've felt about the draft pick scenario.
Does this possible 'expert' and 'platformed' opinion lend credence to my highly ridiculed and mocked opinions? Probably not, but I still stand by my dissenting and differing opinions steadfastly. You guys wouldn't have as much fun or have a brunt-of-a-joke if I didn't.
Ricky Ricky Ricky, can't you see
Sometimes your words just aggravate me
....And you just love my jazzy ways
I guess that's why you choke on responding, yourself you can't save!
Nothing I write is worth reading - remember that?
But when your idol Berri is in lock-and-step with my opining, that has to be a tough pill to swallow, I'm sure.
Nope, but your inability to determine what Berri's writing does and does not represent is unsurprising.
Nor is your need to 'chest beat' when you think you're 'proven' right or your need to believe that you came up with everything and no one else could have come up with a problem if you ever thought of it.
you remind me of my mother, of couse she's in her mid 60s and a paranoid delusional - she has an excuse.
May God or a higher power bless you and your mother.
Sigh
Iverson not listed as starter but is active for the game...thank god we have willie green to start
Saying that you really are looking forward to see Holiday match up with Chris Paul is kind of like if this were 1996 and you were a Lakers fan really looking forward to the 8 minutes Kobe would be guarding Jordan. This may be a good matchup one day but right now you're talking about the best point guard since Jason Kidd and a kid who should arguably still be in college.
It is the little things this season. Seeing Jrue shut someone down, seeing if Speights can play defense on anyone (or pass), hoping Thad breaks on through.
Reading that the 'average' nba player puts his best season in at 24/25 - that's kind of disoncerting
Where'd you read that? And yeah, it is disconcerting, as Iguodala's already past that point. Perhaps we've seen the best of this 'elite' player already? As a scorer, at least, he certainly doesn't seem to be learning anything new. Kind of like a perimeter version of Dwight Howard in certain respects.
It's in Berri's upcoming book - not all players - just on average he says - and it lends credence to the island of misfit toys thing :(
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/12/23/a-quick-note-on-aging-in-the-nba/
What's really cool about that is that Ty Lawson will probably peak next season :)
As for Thad, consider that a year ago Brian - and many others - thought that Thad was the 3rd best player in the '07 draft, and today I think a lot of people would take Al Horford, Jeff Green, and of course Noah over him, and I can imagine a year down the road people liking Hawes and Yi Jianlian over Thad too. Thad, we should recall, was a disappointment in college relative to what was expected of him coming out of high school, and after the classic proving everyone wrong year that the underachieving college player who slips in the draft invariably has, he's steadily regressed.
Yeah. It really is painful for me to watch Thad nowadays. He keeps getting worse.
OK, I now have something to look forward to in regards to the sixers. The pre-game show with D. Marshall is always good for a laugh or 2.
Tonights gem is: Look for Willie Green to guard CP3 because he has the strength and the D to stay in front of him.
Hasn't anyone told Donyell to stop yelling yet?
He also has strong neck muscles that allow for a cat-like jerking reaction everytime Paul blows right by him.
I'm not sure how I can handle this game tonight after Mark McGwires shocking admission
"Coming off a resounding victory on Saturday..."
Was it really resounding, Zum?
I'm sure you can imagine how difficult his job must be at this point...
Iverson is starting. Who the fuck is going to "guard" CP? Matchup zone from the tip?
Iverson is a wiley veteran and one of the best players, so he's one of the best defenders, no?
Jordan actually said Ben Gordon was one of the best defenders the other night. I shit you not.
that 169 is some of the best money i saved all 'year'
AI9 for 3. Kick out by Thad, don't see that too often.
Thad just got out-worked by CP3 on the glass. Awesome. I think he's 0/3 already.
OK, Jordan. You have to places to go with the ball, Peja on Iguodala or West on Thad, which is a bigger mismatch?
I've got a great scoring back court
I've got a great scoring back court
Stupid shot by AI9. Got the ball in the post w/ Peja on him and dribbled out for a 20-footer.
Sammy has 8 boards in the first 6 minutes. Thad is 1/5 from the floor.
8 boards and two blocks.
I'll go ahead and say it, Sammy is playing some inspired basketball for this shit team.
His recent play just makes the rest of his career that much more irritating :)
He really wants that extra 3million trade kicker
I swear that is child abuse. Eddie Jordan showing the youth of Philadelphia nothing but dribble handoffs.
haha i was just about to comment on that
Bullshit whistle on Sammy.
Brand is fucking money.
Is that legal? I mean I know burning it's illegal...plus all that trace cocaine
I hate to see Brand on Defense OUT of the Box, and AI3 sometimes vs Pedja! hate EJ.
i was relatively happy about the iverson deal when they signed him, but now that i realize how much he is taking away from jrue...fuck him. seriously he's not helping us win and he and willie are just taking minutes away from jrue i honestly don't understand how a head coach and/or gm doesn't see that but they continue to start iverson/willie over jrue. it really pisses me off
Is Yahoo lying to me or did Jrue Holiday get into the game BEFORE WIllie Green?
Yeah I saw that, too. A few more games like this and I'll start believing these are orders handed down from the GM.
This is my favorite lineup.
Mine as well, really like it its got defense, offense, speed, rebounding, it really has everything
Fucking league pass is garbage tonight. Jrue caused that turnover, by the way.
Good Shot Jrue!!
Boom. JRUE/AI backcourt has been doing really well so far this year.
....And it's done.
Sammy has a dozen boards in the first quarter.
That was a pretty impressive first quarter. +14 w/ Jrue in there.
Man - I thought it was just 12 - he entered when it was 15-12 I thought?
Yeah, you're right. It's 12. +14 for Brand
So they won't play much in the second half right?
So looks like the word is out on the scouting reports and therefore: Paul will get some rest for the second half when the sixers give up their lead.
15 up! but better a 60 points lead up... when Kapono and Smith play their amazing D on the second half.
What do you think, lead needs to reach 30 by the half to be truly safe?
"Safe" being a relative term :)
Sam's hustle is unexplainable. He usually is the first one to pout especially with his minutes fluctuating. He looks so motivated.
Elton freakin Brand! Man...
Songalia on Brand will not work. Nice repost and Jrue actually gave him the ball.
Let's go Brand no jump shots, go straight to the hoop. Songaila can't guard him
Time Warner can kiss my ass. Feed is skipping every 10 seconds.
Please give the ball to Jrue to run the offense, Willie.
Did someone force that 8 second violation on the hornets?
Jrue knocked the ball out of bounds prior to the timeout, then Willie applied pressure, and they didn't realize they didn't have the full 8 seconds.
im really happy jrue is getting some good minutes he's playing pretty well too
Come on Jrue, run offense instead of jacking like Willie after the o-board.
7:22 PHI - J. Holiday misses a 22-foot jumper from the top of the arc
7:25 PHI - J. Holiday offensive rebound
Bad Jrue
lol yeah. He just jacked that one up for no real reason.
The board was strong, though.
Lou/Willie back court.
Horrible pass by CP3 there, nice safety work by Lou to get the TO and I believe they're calling a clear path foul.
Put Dalembert and AI back in, not Lou.
6 minutes is more than enough rest for Sam. He should be back in there after this break.
Another BS foul on Sammy. That's two.
And a no call on Lou with the drive on CP. BS!
Here we go? Lead cut to 9.
Thad looked a little out of control, but I think that's a block. He moved under him when he was doing his jump stop.
Both teams shooting below 40% from the floor. Both shooting lights-out from three. Difference is Sixers getting to the line more.
Dre do that all game with Peja on you and stop settling for those long jumpers.
Boy, Thad couldn't buy a bucket if he had even a penny. ugh
3 on Sam.
3-point game. -10 since Lou/AI came back in.
We haven't scored a FG in nearly 5 minutes either.
It's weirdly satisfying watching the inevitable consequences of Jordan's dumb-ass lineups. I'm starting to prefer Willie Green over Lou.
Why is everyone crowding down in the lane when CP3 had the ball at the top of the key leaving Posey open? WTF was Thad doing standing under the basket?
CP3 is scoreless for the first half, NO only trails by five, though.
48-43. 31 points for New Orleans in the second.
too many long possessions for the sixers. Poor Offense and very poor D on the perimeter... looks really bad.
Donyell Marshall time!!!
I'm stuck w/ some joker from NBA TV using nothing but points-per-game to make his arguments for the all star team.
Wonder why League Pass allows us to sometimes see the halftime show in studio and most times they don't with their pre-recorded NBATV mess?
Not sure. I thought it had something to do w/ Comcast, but sometimes they show the Sixers halftime crew, right? Maybe it's a home/away thing.
Well it's not pre-recorded, they just patch you into what ever is going on NBA TV at the time - I wonder if it has to do with what is on NBA TV at the time.
I hate to dispute he-who-knows-everything, but yes, it is pre-recorded this year. There is another game on NBATV tonight. And even when there is not, it's still pre-recorded footage.
So you think New Orleans wins this by double digits?
Strangely, I think we do. Just don't ask me why.
Just lost all respect for Aaron McKie.
"What's the key to good defense coming out in the third."
McKie: "Good offense."
Contradicting the coach on TV is not a way to keep your job
Well, considering EJ's actual plans & lineups that he cannot change, he's not wrong.
The lead lasts 4 possessions.
only 1up.. and still lou/ai3 on the court....
Standard (stupid) nba coaching - the players that started the game start the second half
Great pick by Lou on Thad there. Very Stockton like
Hey, Thad 2/8 now for 4 points.
3/9.
Tremendous defensive play by Iguodala to key that.
stick with the starters, no matter how back they suck
bad
4 on Sammy.
4/9 for Thad, steal + flush.
5/11 for Thad now, I think he's got some confidence going.
I hate this artificial running game. Give up an easy look really quickly, take the ball out of bounds and run. Get some friggin stops.
Iguodala does a great job on Okafor in the post. Such a versatile defender.
Anyone ever heard of blocking out?
Would like to have seen Andre give a hard foul there on Okafor instead of a layup.
Time Warner locked up again, missed the whole play. This is pissing me off.
Okafor was kind of coming in from the wing uncontested and Dre just gave a token swipe while flying by the basket out of bounds. He should have Brand-ed him!
Dammit Thad box the F out! Everybody for that matter, sheesh....
Ugly end to the third. Jrue got toasted by CP3 for a three-point play to end it. One-point game heading into the fourth.
Well, Sixers by 1 heading into the fourth. I'll ask it again, New Orleans by 10?
No FG's for the last five minutes of the second quarter and an 11-2 run for NO for around the last 2-3 minutes of the third.
I hope Lou was paying attention to Paul's last score. Stop this pumpfake crap at the top of the key at the end of quarters and drive the ball.
How long does he leave Sammy on the bench?
zumoff seemed surprised the sixers lost their lead
How bizarre is EJ's box! iverson/thad defending the post and iguolada/brand the perimeter... I'm trying to figure out why?
Nice drive and lefty floater for Jrue.
There you go Jrue, attack and don't settle.
Good work on the offensive glass by the kid. EB has gone cold.
Atta boy. Hit the freebies now.
good job AI0/Jrue!
Longest possession ever right here.
Just wait, EJ plans to run out the clock on misses and tips. Best Defense is a GREAT OFFENSE!
AI9 3PT!!!!!
Yeah, come on EB with the silky smooth J
It's kind of fun to watch them play when Jrue's out there.
Dre with the nice pick and a good pass by Jrue to EB for the stop and pop. Let's go!
3rd double-digit lead in this game, will it hold? lol
Brand is +23.
Abusing those second-teamers, aint he?
"I hate to say it, but yes." - Fuckface Jordan.
Come on, keep your shit together.
Dammit, that is twice Sam is not blocking out Okafor on the last three possession. And it wasn't b/c he had to help.
4:41, I think Jordan pushes the panic button here and goes w/ AI3/LW in the back court.
EB and SD need to do a much, much better job on the defensive glass.
He stuck with it for one more possession but here comes AI for Willie.
Fuck me. Green for three? That's the play you call out of the timeout? Ugh.
It looked like it was a call for EB on an iso but he handed off to Willie who conveniently jacked a three.
YES! JRUE/AI BACKCOURT
Come on, grab a board.
HUGE three by Jrue.
GET The effing rebound! Marcus Thornton over Sam.
Jrue with a timely 3!
Five on Sammy, moving screen. I say leave him in. Only 2:59 to go.
This is unbelievable. The defensive rebounding is so bad.
Two man game with either AI3 & EB or JH and EB.
Nice.
Good shot EB but why don't you back him down next time.
Well he backed him down halfway that time but took a contested turn-around.
wow! well done Brand!
Zone? that's not how you shore up the glass.
Come on, run your play.Get good look here.
Who switched that, Jrue or Sammy?
EB just fouled out. They switched it again. Not sure whose fault.
Dalembert agaisnt Paul OUT of the Box and Jrue agaisnt Okafor... buff!
Dre for a jumper here? Has to be.
They should drive and draw a foul at the least.
Alright, tie game, 42.6 left on the clock. Does he put Williams in for offense here? Who gets the shot?
I'm thinking about the 2 for 1, I think. I don't want to miss a shot late in the SC and give Paul a shot for the win as time expires.
One of the drawbacks of no minutes for Speights is I'd be wary of a pick-and-pop w/ him ice cold.
Wow. That's Sammy's second possible game winner in 3 days.
They skip pass from Jrue made the play, btw.
Sammy!!!!!!!!!!
NO GOD DAMNED THREES!
Damn, they scored but when that ball got tipped they were rushing like they didn't have time but it was 13 on the shot clock.
Look at that replay, Dre was not rolling hard to the basket for a better angled pass from AI. He sort of floated out after the pick like he wanted the 20 footer.
Which is how that play has been designed every time they've run it.
Dre, please make these two from the line. BOTH of them!
Thank. you.
Did Iggy get a piece of that?
Winner?
Yeah! Sixers Win!
Jrue played more min than Lou = W?
Now that win felt real and not hollow for some reason. Because we got killed on the boards especially o-boards given up and still too many turnovers but pulled it out with the made threes and free throws I guess.
Completely fluky, but definitely felt like they fought for it. I'm not completely pissed right now, even though I probably should be. I'm counting this one in the good win column.
better Jrue playing the last minutes.
Jrue played final 15 minutes, give or take.
Last two games, 9 boards, 10 assists, 1 turnover and played crunch time of both games.
EB did a great job on David West tonight. West went for 44 points the other night. Tonight, he was 6-for-17, 13 points. You gotta give Brand credit for the job he did on West. West is a very talented offensive weapon and with Chris Paul handing him the ball, I think EB did a GREAT defensive job on him. Yes, EB did foul out but I think those 6 fouls lasted most of the game.
good night dudes. Go Sixers (hope one day w/out Jordan).
Heh, check this out. In the fourth quarter:
Jrue, 6 points, 2 boards, 1 assist
Chris Paul, 5 points, 1 board, 0 assists.
I could only follow on yahoo...but would you say that was due to Jrue's defense on Paul?
Who was guarding Paul most of the game?
I guess what I should have asked was how was Jrue's overall defense on Paul...
Jrue played very aggressive defense. he got beat on a few iso's and there were some strange switches, but overall he made CP3 work. Jrue did not embarrass himself out there. Very under control for the youngest player in the league.
Surprisingly, Lou defended CP3 well also. Paul was not looking to scorer early, but Lou stayed in front of him most of the time.
Thad - 25 min
Lou - 25 min
Good signs. If only they would be relegated to those minutes from the bench.
Speights with 5 min is a tell-tale sign too. The DiLeo treatment.
This has to be dictated right? Jordan must be playing this way per Stefanski's orders. This game directly contradicts every thing Jordan has said for the last 6 months
Valid,.... but just like Ed said, they talk and discuss every single day. So if credit is bestowed upon Ed here then wasn't he also to blame along with EJ earlier?
I'm thinking ES promised EJ he would have every opportunity to prove his approach would work AND finally he had enough. Kind of ironic that defensive personel have played in long stretches the last 2 games after the ES press conference.
Did Lou get hurt, or has EJ decided Holiday is his closer PG?
Funny, given how Lou used to come off the bench to close of games.
Lou did not appear to be hurt at the game. Was just hanging around at the last couple time outs (I guess he hoped to get in the game?).
Jrue played very well tonight. This is the first 76er game I was at that I enjoyed.
Jordan on the postgame asked why Jrue played instead of Lou:
Jrue was playing good defense on Paul, Jrue kept us organized, and he had a monster blockout on Oakfor at the end.
So, don't worry, Lou is not hurt! :-)
Brand was +13 tonight.
Thad was -7.
Why isn't Brand starting over Thad? Makes no sense...
Anybody else see how disgusted Speights looked tonight through out the 2nd half and was reluctant to go into the huddle during TOs?
With Brand coming off the bench, the Sixers don't have as much for Spreights points off the bench. One of the more interesting things to watch over the next 7-10 days is how Jordan uses Speights. My bet is that Jordan is desperate to put up some Ws. Means that most every night except the most offensively-challenged teams that Speights is going to be about 10-12 minute guy a night.