I've spent the past 13 games waiting for something to return. It was something unique, something potentially groundbreaking, it was something that could rally a fan base if properly executed. I've been waiting for the identity this team was slowly but surely carving out to return, but now I'm afraid it may be gone for good.
In order to properly mourn the loss, first we have to fully understand what the identity was, or what it had the potential to be. Essentially, there are two types of teams in the NBA, traditional half-court teams and running teams. This may be oversimplifying, but for the most part the traditional teams are defensive teams, the running teams play little-to-no defense. Half-court teams play at a slow pace, grinding out possessions on the defensive end then walking the ball up the floor. Running teams play at a fast pace, they look to push the ball at every opportunity to create number mismatches and easy scoring opportunities by beating their opponents down the floor. They induce quick shots from their opponents, either by creating an artificial flow to the game they feel obligated to keep up, through their porous defense or a combination of both.
The Sixers were on their way to taking the best of both worlds and creating a hybrid identity, a team that would grind out defensive possessions and use their ability to rebound, block shots and create turnovers to spark a deadly running game. Not only did they have the formula down in '07-'08, they had the perfect player to build it around, and a young core to run with him. Think about it for a second, a premier perimeter defender who can lock down the opposing team's best scorer, create turnovers, rebound the ball, beat his man down the floor if a leak out opportunity presents itself or just as deftly take the ball coast-to-coast and make the right pass in transition. You couldn't ask for a more ideal set of abilities in one player to build this type of team around than those found in 24-year-old Andre Iguodala.
It's a nice story, and it was fairly successful on the floor in '07-08 when an under-manned Sixers team took it to some of the best teams in the league, and if you look at the team's stats from that season, you'll see that it worked. They had the #8 team in the league in defensive efficiency. They were among the league leaders in fast break points while ranking only 20th in pace. They extended their defense and made teams work to get shots, they created turnovers and blocked shots to get into the open floor. Their young core then turned on the jets and turned those open floor opportunities into easy points.
The foundation was laid, but there were obviously pieces missing. They desperately needed two things: (1) Improved defensive rebounding. They rebounded at a 72% rate on the defensive end, thanks in large part to 1,554 minutes for Thad Young mostly at PF with a dismal 11.9% rebound rate, and a whopping 1,970 minutes for Willie Green with a 5.5% rebounding percentage. (2) A half-court offense. They needed someone or something they could rely on to provide efficient offense on the 59% of possessions where they were forced into the half-court game. The key was to add a piece, or pieces, which would enhance the things they already did well -- defend, block shots, offensive rebound -- as well as strengthen those key weaknesses. Enter Elton Brand. A guy who owned the glass his entire career, averaged 2.1 blocks/game for his career and most importantly, could provide a consistent offensive weapon when the offense was bogged down for whatever reason.
Forget about three-point shooting, while it was obviously a weakness, it wasn't the key piece to the puzzle. What they absolutely needed to make this system work was Elton Brand, in his prime and a coach who could integrate him into the team's identity, not change the team's identity to fit him.
Well, things didn't quite work out. Brand had accumulated a fair amount of rust in his year off due to injury. Cheeks for some reason decided slowing the game down to feed Brand was the best course of action for the team, then he panicked and put Willie Green into the starting lineup, then he got fired. When DiLeo took over, we saw a quick glimpse of what the team could do if they utilized Brand properly, but it only lasted about a game-and-a-half before Brand was lost for the season with a dislocated shoulder.
At that point, they fell back on their identity for the remainder of the season, but they still had those two weaknesses. When they got to the playoffs, they were laid bare by an efficient Orlando team after the Sixers got off to an improbable 2-1 start to the series.
Now, let's fast forward to this past summer. Andre Miller is let go, Eddie Jordan is brought in and Elton Brand returns. Miller was never a long-term solution at the point, and while his open-court vision and throw-ahead passes often keyed the running game, his on-the-ball defense also put a serious kink in the defensive plans. The Sixers made a perfect draft choice to augment their identity, a point guard who can guard the ball, rebound at a high rate and run the break. In short, they came out of the preseason with all the player pieces in place to pick up right where they left off in '07-08. It would take some time for Jrue Holiday to ascend to the starting PG spot, but they could make due with Lou Williams and utilize his speed and ability to break defenses down to key the running game and get easy baskets. The defense should've been improved merely by inserting a legitimate defender at the four, not to mention adding another shotblocker to the back line. Removing Willie Green from the lineup and shifting Thad to the three should've made them a very good defensive rebounding team.
The defense was never going to be perfect with Lou at the point, but with Jrue waiting in the wings and hopefully seeing decent time in his rookie season, they could field a stout defensive lineup across the board. They still had the athletes to run. They had a weapon they could use in the half court and they even had a legitimate threat from three they could add into the mix occasionally if defenses were sagging into the lane or aggressively doubling Brand. All the pieces were in place to move closer to the ideal of a defensive running team.
Somewhere between here and there it all fell apart. Defense became a secondary concern. The half-court offense didn't become more efficient, if anything, it's become more stodgy and it's playing away from the team's strengths. Relying on guys who aren't good jump shooters to hit long jumpers. The running game is still there (they're second in the league in fast break points), but it doesn't mean a whole lot when you can't get defensive stops. It doesn't mean a whole lot when you can't secure rebounds after you do manage to get a stop.
It's cliche to blame things solely on the coach, and we shouldn't do that in this case. Thad Young and Lou Williams should shoulder some of the blame, but honestly, the majority of the blame is on Eddie Jordan. It's on his defensive schemes, it's on him for choosing offensive lineups over defensive lineups. It's on him for making the team's focus, the team's barometer for success their ability to run the Princeton offense. If they had simply stuck to their guns and kept going with the identity that they created two years ago out of necessity, and used the PO as a crutch to prop up their weak half-court offense we'd still be on that path. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening.
If I had to pigeonhole this team with an identity right now, it would be a lot closer to those running teams who view defense only as a means to get the ball back as quickly as possible, points allowed be damned. The thing that frightens and saddens me is that I believe our coach would be perfectly happy with that identity if he could only get the PO to crank up its efficiency to the point where we could score with the mediocre teams and out-score the bad ones.
Here's the kicker, though. If Jordan keeps leading us down this road we don't have the roster to support the system. They're still built to defend and run, not out-shoot their opponents. If the franchise is buying in on this new identity, changes are going to have to be made or it's never going to work. They're going to have to tear the whole thing down and start from scratch, most likely.
The alternative is for Jordan to embrace the roster he has, play to its strengths rather than his system. Is it possible? Absolutely. Do I have any faith that he'll make the adjustment on his own? Absolutely not. If this is going to happen, I believe it's going to have to come down from above. Stefanski and DiLeo built this roster, they know it's strengths. We saw the dramatic turnaround when DiLeo took over last season, and it happened because he took off the chains and let the team be what it is. That team is still there. If you don't believe me, take a look at the tape from the second and third quarters of the Cavs game.
They didn't get their points by suddenly hitting all their mid-range jumpers. They got their points by getting stops, running the floor and relentlessly pushing the ball to the hoop. The exact same things we saw from this team the past two seasons. The things that excited me about the future of the franchise back in 2007. We also saw the evolution of the system, with Elton Brand scoring eight points on myriad moves around the hoop and short jumpers created by penetration and feeding the ball into the post in the third quarter alone.
The pieces are there, I'm sure of it. Jordan just needs to start using them in the right combination to do the right things.
Brian, I place the blame on 2 people, you and E.S., not our new coach. You, for not presenting this article to E.S. BEFORE HE HIRED A NEW COACH, it is dead on. And E.S. for not looking for the right young mind to put this plan in place. A leopard can!t change his spots, though I expect slight adjustments as the year goes on, but we may never get IT back.
At this point, I believe the Eddie Jordan signing and how the situation is handled will be the defining decision of Stefanski's tenure w/ the Sixers.
EJ's previous teams were horrible in their first year. Sure they lacked talent, but they still had brutal records (24 and 26 wins.)
Maybe this suggests he likes to break down a team before building them back up with his system? Or maybe those teams were not salvageable. Like most fan's I wanted a more defensive minded coach and not a failed retread, so I'm less willing to give EJ the benefit of the doubt.
To EJ's credit, I think once in place the system can get the most out of marginal talent (look at Washington with all of its injuries.) Not sure that alone is enough to buy into his scheme.
Overall I agree with your premise that a non-coach could get more out of this team than a coach like Jordan who pushes them in the wrong direction.
So Washington was 10 games worse in Jordan's first season than they were the previous year, but Jordan was gone and the roster was a mess. I think that's to be expected.
Sacto didn't have much roster turnover and they were 7 games worse in his first full season as head coach than the season before.
Washington improved quickly in their second season under Jordan, he didn't get another year to work with Sacto.
Here's the thing that worries me, click through his career in Washington. Each season the offense got better, I mean significantly better, and the defense got worse, significantly worse. Until the injuries started to pile up. The 07-08 season was impressive when you take into account the heavy minutes he had to get from middling players, and the defense did improve that season, but going from 29th to 24th, well, I'm not sure how impressive that is.
"That team is still there. If you don't believe me, take a look at the tape from the second and third quarters of the Cavs game."
You are exactly right, that team is still there. The only thing I see missing is that they can't make an open shot (which present themselves by the bunches). The article on Thad yesterday was insightful and interesting but after reading it, it all boiled down to one thing for me with him (aside from his needs-work handle and cream-puff-like effort at times on D and the boards) - he doesn't knock down the open looks he is getting, and once again there are plenty.
As for EJ, I think it is way overblown and an overreaction to say the "team's barometer for success is their ability to run the PO." EJ has flat-out said from the preseason that he hopes they don't even have to run the PO b/c they will be getting run-outs and fastbreak opportunities. And we all saw proof of that in the CLE game Sat. night. All this Princeton offense hub-bub is coming from inquiries from the media and the short leash it is being given by some fans.
I think we are still going with the identity forged from the last two years and going to use the PO as a crutch to prop things up when in the half-court. If only the media, fanbase, and most importantly, the players would just be patient and give it an ample amount of time. To much rush to judgment has been going on with the whole team, particularly the head coach.
Take the CLE game for instance, if we just had made two or three of the many wide open looks the guys had we'd be a bit more optimistic. This offense is a thing of beauty when executed properly and crisply, the only thing that's missing is someone, anyone to make a mid-range jumper somewhat consistently. While I agree that we have sporadic, mediocre shooters, at some point these younger guys have to put in the time and work to get their jumpers to round into form and get better at it. It is a lost art in today's game. It's a product of the roots (the summer AAU circuit and street ball) of American basketball today. Shooting is still a fundamental of basketball and most kids today coming up through the game sorely lack it. And that is about what we have - a bunch of kids.
I'm not in the camp yet that we need to change systems overall to fit our personnel, I'm still of the belief that these guys haven't given it a chance. From player quotes early on about how great the system was to now admitting that they don't know how to process thoughts and decision-making, the offense suddenly hasn't become a bad thing - it's just that they haven't put in the time to master and learn it. You know, spending time thinking of what to tweet instead of looking at some film or diagrams of sets.
And I'll leave the mentions alone of EJ not emphasizing defense, as I have already mentioned it multiple times on here this weekend and feel it is way off base. The defense was not bad in the CLE game and I don't think it had to do with EJ's schemes suddenly working, it all came down to the players communicating (EB in particular), giving decent effort (J Smith hedging on that P and R and then hustling for a block), and the will to want-to. Just like rebounding, you have to have some want-to when playing defense because it certainly is not as sexy as a break-away dunk or beautifully arced three pointer.
I know this was long, but in short we just need to make these open shots that we are getting and give effort and full-game intensity like 3/4 of that CLE game because it is telling when Dala makes statements of the sort - "we seem to play to our level of competition." Those damn players again...
The point is not that the set Princeton offense is flawed. Its that the team has somehow lost its way in terms of defense and rebounding. If anything they should be upgraded in those areas but have been worse.
One issue is that Thad is not good as a wing defender right now. I think that he will improve with experience and coaching, but it does weaken their perimeter defense right now.
The first team should be better at rebounding than last season, but the bench is filled with poor rebounders (Jason Smith, Willie Green, Jason Kapono). Only Speights is rebounding well off the bench this season, and he won't be playing until 2010.
I never said the PO was flawed. I just mainly opined and counter-pointed what was written and offered up some opinion of what I see may be wrong. There was a lot more in there.
And to keep saying the defense 'should be upgraded' is silly. You insert Lou (never known as even a passable defender) with major minutes, you shift Thad to the wing vs. quicker, more perimeter-oriented and drive-type players, Dala at times appears to be giving half-effort (see the PHX and UTAH games), EB has faced tall tasks being matched up vs. perimeter-oriented 4's that hover around the arc, and you still have the headcase that is Sam.
Where does the illusion come from that the defense should be upgraded? And that isn't even taking into account a new system being implemented by the staff, specifically Ayers.
I think maybe I misread your post.
Knocking down open shots is not what this team does... it's not built that way. That's why good defense leading to fast break points is such a necessity. Brian's point exactly.
So, please don't take offense when I say this, but you're conceiving things exactly wrong. Open shots are meaningless for a team that lacks guys who can shoot.
See, this is part of the problem. The PO, or at least the version they're running right now (or maybe the version they're being forced to run) is producing open 20-footers for guys who can't shoot open 20 footers. A 40-45% open two-pointer is not a good shot. Especially not when it has basically zero chance of drawing a foul. If you have a roster full of shooters who can knock those shots down at 50% or better, then it makes sense to play for those opportunities, but that's not the Sixers.
The best offense I've seen the Sixers run this season has revolved around Brand getting the ball in either the high or low post, or simple pick & rolls usually working with Iguodala.
They've run give-and-goes with Iguodala taking the pass on the baseline for an easy dunk. Brand has gone right at his man. Brand has drawn a double and kicked diagonally across the court for an open three (btw, an open look for a 33% three-point shooter is far preferable [.99 points] to an open look at a mid-range jumper for a guy who shoots them at 42% [.84 points]).
Two final points (1) Ayers' defensive schemes are a joke with this personnel. The over-helping is systematic and it's taking any natural feel for defense completely out of the equation and making this roster over-think on both ends of the floor. You have athletes, you have to challenge them to stick with their men and use simple principles to cover up any individual weaknesses. (2) You can say Jordan doesn't value execution of the PO over defense, but his substitution patterns tell a different story. He goes small because he believes he needs another "shooter" on the floor at PF. Those lineups compromise the team defensively, and just doesn't care.
A perfect diagnosis and indictment of this team as currently constructed and run. And why I didn't renew my season tickets this year. I still love the Sixers and like watching these guys play, but have no faith in this management/coaching/player combination.
Totally right, I don't care if the Princeton Offense takes awhile if we could rebound the damn ball. Then it wouldn't have to score 100+ every night.
Brian you bring up some interesting things to think about. So much so that I think I might have to write a quick post in reply to this.
We've always been somewhat on the opposite sides of the fence regarding the talent level and potential of the Sixers as constructed. I think you were always more hopeful, and positive. And I've been more pessimistic.
I think this might be a perfect example of that. I tend to think the 07-08 team might have been more flukish than something to expect more of in the future.
Great post.
You know, it's funny. I was really, really down on this team when I first started this blog. That's really why I started this blog. The team was in the process of trading Iverson and I was a huge proponent of tanking to get Oden, I even created a graphic for it. It was really late in that season that this group converted me. I saw them trying something unique and playing balls-to-the-wall even though they were grossly overmatched on a nightly basis. People forget they finished the '06-07 season on a 17-9 run.
After a rocky start the following year, that team returned and they looked a little bit better at playing the defend and run game. Then last season we had the abortion of a gameplan, the injury, and then they picked up right where they left off.
I don't know, I can't help but think about the core of this team and the way they played for significant stretches of really the past three season. The pieces are there to execute that type of system, in fact, it's really the only type of system I see this roster as being capable of executing to the point where they can be a winning team.
If I'm a hopeless optimist, which you'd find extremely ironic if you knew me in my day job or regular life, it's because those teams made me this way.
I'm being pushed by the team in the opposite direction. The last couple of years I've projected a few less wins than the consensus. And yet they've underperformed even my pessimistic calls (last year I expected 46+ wins, this year 39.) I'm more of the mind that their late runs these last 3 years are not a good indication of the team or their direction. More a product of a young team catching more vet teams unprepared late in the season.
Where I keep vacillating is over their long term rebuilding. I was much higher on their future upside last year than I am now. But I guess that can change depending on Brand's play and how the young players develop.
These last 3 years have certainly been a roller coaster.
I completely get where you're coming from. This type of system, or at least what I'm perceiving it as being, really speaks to me. I love unorthodox approaches, I love cases where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, I love imaginative ways to flip things on their head.
Think about the ideal possession in this offense. Pressure the ball up the floor, force teams to burn time on the shot clock before they get into their half-court set. Force them to run through their set and finally get a contested look with less than 10 seconds left on the shot clock, secure the rebound, sprint out on offense, get to the rim for a make and/or a foul with 15-20 seconds left on the clock, then get right back in the other team's face, force them to grind through another offensive possession with a low percentage shot on the end. Frustration sets in, teams get out of their comfort zone and all of the sudden you're getting turnovers which only feed the running beast.
Anyway, I'm getting carried away. The point is, this is possible if you have a team capable of getting stops, forcing turnovers, grabbing defensive rebounds and running the floor. Perimeter shooting is a nice-to-have, and it should be the type of roster you can piece together out of spare parts, parts that might be undervalued by other teams, like the Pistons for example, who overpay for guys who can shoot but won't contribute in any of these other areas.
I look back to teams like the Show-Time Lakers or the old time (60's) Celtics as teams that would D you up and then run over you. I guess the 83 Sixers also fit that mold although they could beat you in every conceivable way.
Most modern running teams are not strong on defense. AJ tried to add defense to the running game inin Dallas, but fell short of a championship.
So I agree, they could be special if they could combine running and intense defense. The problem still remains that unlike the Showtime Lakers they might have a Worthy (Iguodala/Thad) but are sorely lacking a Magic, Kareem or even a lock down SG with range like Cooper.
So all they need is Holiday to blossom into a smaller Magic and Carney to become a lock down defender with range like Cooper. I'll let you guess which is more likely...
Those are exactly the analogies I used to draw when people talked about them becoming a defensive-minded running team. Russell's Celtics and Magic's Lakers both fit that mold.
I understand EJ's "love" of the PO, but he needs to focus hard on defense, while letting the offense progress naturally. What many players of his have said is that he focuses hard on the offense most of the time. In contrast, Phil Jackson, when he initially installed the Triangle, still put a major premium on defense.