This post sprung from the comments section yesterday. Coach Jordan's comments about Jrue and Willie sparked a lively debate, and I wanted to take a more thorough look at how he's handled playing time for rookies in the past. We'll also pick up our Willie Green discussion, and take a look at a chart.
Here are the rookies, by year, in parens you'll see what number they were picked, overall.
1997-98 Sacramento Kings
- Tariq Abdul-Wahad (11th) - 959 minutes as a rookie. Played 6 unremarkable seasons in the NBA.
- Lawrence Funderburke (51st in 1994) - 1,094 minutes as a rookie. Played 7 unremarkable seasons in the NBA. 27 year-old rookie
- Derek Grimm (undrafted) - 34 minutes. This was his only season in the NBA
- Anthony Johnson (39th) - 2,266 minutes as a rookie. Has played 10 seasons since, but this was his highest minute total.
- Michael Stewart (undrafted) - 1,761 minutes as a rookie. Played 7 additional seasons in the NBA, his total for those other 7 seasons was less than the minutes Jordan played him as a rookie.
Thoughts: Jordan's first full season as a head coach was an unmitigated disaster. He led the Kings to a 27-55 record, relying on rookies for 6,114 minutes, an astonishing 31% of the team's total minutes.
2003-04 Washington Wizards
- Steve Blake (38th) - 1,392 minutes as a rookie. 6 seasons and counting for Blake, who never excelled under Jordan, but has found a nice niche as a starting PG in Portland.
- Torraye Braggs (57th in 1998) - 22 minutes for the Wizards. Played in one other season in limited action.
- Jarvis Hayes (10th) - 2,044 minutes as a rookie. Still in the league, but his rookie year was his highest minute total.
Thoughts: Jordan's first year with the Wizards saw him rely on Hayes in the middle, a bad decision in hindsight. The team was horrendous, finishing 25-57. Rooks played 17% of all minutes.
2004-05 Washington Wizards
- Peter John Ramos (32nd) - Ramos played 20 minutes as a rookie, the only 20 minutes of his career.
Thoughts: Ramos was the only rookie on the roster. Hayes and Blake saw their minutes decline greatly in their second seasons. The Wizards made the playoffs this season.
2005-06 Washington Wizards
- Andray Blatche (49th) - 175 minutes as a rookie. Blatche has seen his minutes, and production, grow every year since.
- Donell Taylor (undrafted) - 465 minutes as a rookie. 369 minutes the following season, then out of the league.
Thoughts: Only two rooks on the roster. 3% of minutes to the rookies.
2006-07 Washington Wizards
- Mike Hall (undrafted) - 13 minutes as a rookie, 13 minutes for his career.
- James Lang (undrafted) - 55 minutes as a rookie, 55 minutes for his career.
Thoughts: Two rooks on the roster, totaling 68 minutes. Blatche saw a jump in his minutes in his sophomore season, but only to 682.
2007-08 Washington Wizards
- Dominic McGuire (47th) - 695 minutes as a rookie. Huge bump in minutes in his sophomore season, although he really wasn't productive (Jordan was fired after 11 games of his 2nd year).
- Nick Young (16th) - 1,158 minutes as a rookie. Minutes jumped significantly in his second season, although again, his production didn't warrant them.
- Oleksiy Pecherov (18th) - 319 minutes as a rookie. 277 minutes the following season.
Thoughts: The Wizards were ravaged by injury this season. Jordan did a great job of shifting the focus of the team and keeping them in the playoff picture despite limited talent. He did not, however, give a whole lot of the unexpected available minutes to the Wizards two first-round picks. Rookies played 10.9% of the total team minutes.
When I look back at this history with rookies two thoughts strike me. One, Eddie Jordan hasn't had a talented rookie to work with in his entire 6+ years as a head coach. Check that, he hasn't had a rookie who has turned into a productive NBA player. Now, is this because the players were not talented when they came to him, or was it because he could not, or did not, properly develop their talent? That's the million dollar question.
Early in his career, Jordan leaned heavily on rookies, who unquestionably let him down. He was coaching bad teams at the time, but did those seasons erode his trust in rooks? Has that experienced influenced his handling of rookies ever since?
Another discussion in the same thread was about Willie's value to the team. My argument was that he's a useless player who should be stuck at the end of the bench since there are much better options on the roster. Others argued that he's not that bad. I had been using a potentially flawed argument when crucifying Willie, essentially comparing him to other starting SGs in the league, or at least guys who played starter's minutes, instead of comparing him to reserve guards. Tonight, I decided to take a look at how he measured up against those guys. Click on the image below to see the full-size chart:
I randomly picked these names, mainly I was looking for shooting guards off the bench. Some of these guys could be considered the 3rd guard in his team's rotation, but most of them fall lower on the depth chart. If you take a look at the chart and think, "Hey, Willie doesn't look that bad," you should really take a closer look. The only meaningful stats for a guard that Willie is even in the top half for are assists/36 minutes and overall FG%, and he's barely in the top half. He's either 9th or 10th in all the advanced categories, save usage. It's really a shame that his usage wasn't lower, because he'd be doing much less damage. His points-per-shot is just pitifully low.
Of this group, the only player who is even nearly as bad overall as Willie is Daequan Cook. The difference between Cook and Willie, though, is that Cook has a specialty. He's an excellent three-point shooter. He can stretch the floor. Willie's only significant strength, if you can call it that, is his decent percentage on 2-point jumpers (I didn't include this stat, because he was the only one with enough shots to qualify to be on the list at
82games.com).
As far as strengths go, that may be the least-valuable. Think about it for a second: An offense should basically average at least one point per possession. So, to take it down to its purest form, a guy who shoots 33% from three is doing his job on his threes. Anything above 33% is gravy, you get to 40% and he's really doing some damage. If you can't shoot from downtown, the next best way to up your points-per-possession is to get to the line. And-ones are obviously the best-case scenario here, but when you aggressively attack the basket there are a number of ways you can do better than the 1 point per possession threshold. You're taking a high-percentage shot, you're putting yourself in a position to get to the line, etc.
Let's think about the two-point jumper for a second. Ten years ago, it was common to hear announcers marvel at Grant Hill and talk about how his mid-range game was what really set him apart. All you heard was how mid-range jumpers were a lost art, and how the intermediate game was vital. Now, the trend has completely reversed. In fact, a deep two is considered by a lot of people to be the worst shot in basketball. It makes sense, the percentage isn't going to be much higher than a three, but the reward is 50% less for a make. Compare it to a drive to the hoop where not only is the percentage on the shot much higher than a mid-range jumper, but you also factor in the odds of getting fouled.
Essentially, Willie's only skill of note is that he scores .84 points per two-point jumper he attempts. The Sixers would be better off letting Iguodala jack threes all day long at his .307 clip from last season, that would result in .921 points-per-possession.
Obviously, there's more to making two-point jumpers, in the PO, the ability to make those jumpers should lead to open backdoor looks for Willie, which he is adept at running and converting (or at least he was when Andre Miller was drilling him with bullet passes under the hoop). Still, it's just not enough. That one skill is not nearly enough to offset the damage he does in nearly every other area of the game.
Wow, that question isn't worth a plugged nickel. Are you really doing the "i guess we'll never know" deal on whether or not most of these rooks could've wound up all-stars but for Eddie's terrible player development skills? It is to laugh. Ha. Ha. Anyway, I'll let others dissect the whys an wherefores re each of those rookies' particular situations, who was playing behind whom, who did what with their opportunities and what not, but, bottom line, I think it's clear that Eddie doesn't have a hard and fast preference against playing rookies, which is really the question this analysis was hopefully going to show (if you're a bigtime Jrue fan).
Again, I repeat, Jrue was supposed to be this high lottery pick that divine providence allowed to drop in the Sixers' lap.
So either Jordan is completely blind to the talent that you can so clearly see, or mayhaps you're unduly enthusiastic about where he's at right now. It's classic cognitive dissonance: you refuse to believe Jrue could possibly be worse overall than Willie right now because you've invested so much ballyhoo over how awesome he's gonna be. Nope, you can't be wrong, it's got to be the coach, then.
Well, fair enough, it's a stance, it's legal to have it and at this point you've got a 50% chance of being right. Pardon me if I reserve judgement till we see him play some games.
Re Willie, it's kind of surprising that with 30 teams in the league, you could only find 7.5 backup 2-guards (Diener is most definitely a point, and House and Gibson are supposed to be points, too, tho they have specific roles). What an amazing fluke that each of them happens to be pretty darned good from downtown! Wow! I'm not surprised that Willie happened to wind up second to last in WS/48 on this. Heh.
What kills him in the WS here is his rebounding, which WS (rightly) gives significant weight to. Otherwise, he's in the mix in all the categories 'cept free throws.
A/36, he's actually 3rd highest, not including Diener who is a point guard (and ONLY a point guard, he's no combo guy). Not sure what position Dooling plays (is he a combo guard or mostly point?), but if you don't count him either, he's second. In turnovers he's 4th, again not including Diener, who's a little-known but safe distributor like Chris Quinn (Heat. Also a POINT guard). Those with calculators can figure out where he ranks in terms of A/TO ratio which you somehow missed in the list of important point guard attributes.
The thinking may just be that if a 2-guard can take care of the ball as well as he does, relative to how often he dishes, perhaps he can be taught to think a little more point in a system that de-emphasizes the traditional point guard role.
It's pretty cool that you devalue one of Willie's skills in favour of Jrue's (his potential and-one ability) and avoid altogether the glaring skill-set advantage Willie has over Jrue (A/TO). At least your cherry-picking style remains consistent.
Can I get an Amen.
If you, or anyone else, has names you'd like to see thrown into these equations, please send them my way. I picked 10 guys based on nothing more than the role they play (guard off the bench). These were the first 10 that came to mind as I was looking at teams. I would've thrown in a worse 3pt shooter than Willie, if one came to mind as a SG and/or combo guard off the bench for anyone. Maybe Marquis Daniels.
Not surprisingly, you're missing the basic point of this post, and the post from yesterday.
What is the goal for this team this season? Win as many games as possible, or develop young talent with an eye toward a few years down the road? Maybe it's both. Either way you slice it, Willie Green should not be the first guard off the bench.
If you want to win as many games as possible this season, it should be Carney or Kapono, with Iguodala assuming the PG duties. Both Kapono and Carney bring more to the table in terms of tangible skills than Willie does. Short term, win right now, either of those guys is a better option than Willie.
If the goal is to develop talent, which I believe letting Andre Miller walk pointed directly to, then Jrue should be getting the minutes. You can make the argument that Jrue should be getting the minutes in either case, if you put any weight in everything that's been said about his defense.
Personally, I want to see Jrue on the floor. That's pretty clear. But even if you still have a massive hard-on for Ty Lawson, you'll never get over the Sixers decision to draft Jrue over him, and you hope Jrue fails miserably you should still be pissed off that Willie is considered the first guard off the bench right now simply because there are two established guys who play the position behind him in the rotation, each of whom bring more to the table than Willie ever has and ever will.
It's not really about who the 'first guard off the bench' is. It is about which particular player or lineup presents itself for particular situations within a game.
"You can make the argument that Jrue should be getting the minutes in either case, if you put any weight in everything that's been said about his defense."
Exactly, with the key being 'said' about his defense, not shown.
You saw for yourself that Speights shouldn't have been 'getting minutes' last year with some of his shortcomings but your supposed love affair with Jrue now blinds you to that, to the extent you feel he 'should be getting the minutes'?
On-court games are no developing grounds, in my mind.
Ugh. OK, you get one response from me per month.
We aren't talking about games yet. We're talking about setting up a pecking order in camp. Check out this quote from Kate Fagan's article yesterday:
He's not getting court time now, in training camp. That's a problem. 1/4 of the minutes in a scrimmage? No matter what you think of Jrue, this is the development grounds. This is where you should be taking a long look at Jrue, not giving Willie a ton of minutes because he played a ton of minutes last year.
But when you have only a week's worth of training camp before the preseason starts while implementing a new, very complex system, then you pretty much don't have time to 'take a long look' at Jrue. It is probably hard enough for the vets to pick up this system much less expecting a 19 yr old to. Considering the real games are less than a month away.
Jordan has to get the guys he feels are capable and somewhat ready to perform when the lights are turned on in a couple of weeks. My assumption is that he has seen enough of Jrue in before-camp workouts to know the kid needs a whole lot of seasoning and doesn't have the smarts or IQ to pick things up. There will be portions of time to 'take a long look' at Jrue at the PCOM practice courts throughout the course of the year.
And I don't understand why you are saying that Willie G is 'getting a ton of minutes because he played a ton of minutes last year'. Why couldn't it be that Jordan has made an objective evaluation before camp that this is the best route for the team in the short, and maybe long, term? With a new coach and new system, I seriously doubt it has anything to do with minute distribution from last year.
No doubt Green is not a good basketball player. Your analysis furthers the fact that he has a very limited game. Offensively he is a marginally + 2 pt jump shooter and a slightly - 3 pt jump shooter. A few years ago he forced the action and overhandled the ball. He can get past his man, but then gets stuck. Unlike someone like Lou he cannot finish in the lane. Unlike Iguodala he is not creative.
Last year Green played within his skill set and filled a team need. Someone needed to hit jumpers off of screens and curls and work off the ball for back door passes and open 3's. There flat out was no one else on the team who filled that skill set last year besides Green- even if he was only average at those things. This year maybe other players can step up to fill that need, we'll see. They still don't have a Ron Anderson on the roster, so for now Willie Green Willie have to do.
Also Lou filled the role of caulk last year. Coaches need some players who just don't lose for you out there. Some reserves who don't get killed on D, can handle the ball and generally are in the right place on the floor on both ends. That way the good players can be free to do their thing. Not every reserve (or starter) needs to be an impact player or shake things up. Just filling in without screwing things up for everyone else sometimes actually is what a team needs.
I'm hoping Jrue can pick things up fast enough to be on the floor without disrupting the flow badly for the team. He has a good head for the game and the right attitude, but it might be a lot to ask of a 19 year old lead guard right away. Here's hoping he can es- he never really hurt them while he was on the floor. But Thad was not asked to be the lead guard.
Now in the past when Green had a 25%+ usage rate he flat out killed you when he wasn't hot. But last year he was a stabilizing influence on the floor. That is part of why he is seen as a leader. A big part of this was his minutes next to Miller. Miller could not guard anyone under 6'2 and quick. Green is not a lock-down defender, but did a solid job covering the quicker guard and helping to hide Miller's weakness. This helped the team win games.
On the flip side, Green lacks the length to disrupt longer guards. For some reason he was asked to cover people like Rip Hamilton. This I put squarely on the coaches. Green stayed in position, but never should have been used to cover these guys.
This defensive role is where I hope Jrue can fully take over. By all accounts he has the tools to be an elite defender, maybe even right away. They still have a PG who does not defend well, but Lou can't be switched to cover SG's like Miller. But there is always a role for a top defensive guard.
Sorry Green not Lou in the 1t sentence...
That's the crux of the problem for me. Willie does just lose out there, repeatedly. Even what he's supposedly good at is not a plus. Yes, he can score double digits every game if given enough minutes, but he uses way too many possessions to get his points. His defense is not good, his rebounding is pitiful. His assist to turnover ratio is good, mainly because he never makes decisions with the basketball. It's catch and shoot, or catch and pass, he never makes plays off the dribble.
At best, he's a spot-up shooter without three-point range who brings nothing else to the table whatsoever.
I'm hoping they need less WG this year- but lasts year's roster was just so crippled. When Rush failed, they had no shooting. Green was the closest thing they had to a shooter.
Aside from Green they had only one player with a 2pt jump shot% over 40% (Miller at .406 I believe.) Young, Lou, Iguodala, Ivey all were
For 3pt jump shots only Thad was better. Iguodala and Lou put up a ton of 3's at horrific percentages (Lou in particular was the NBA worst in this regard.)
As for defense, I believe Green did a good job covering quicker PG's so that Miller would not get exposed. I agree that against many SG's Green lacks the length to be effective (Miller did a better job.)
Again, this year I'm hoping other players step up to fill the gaping hole in jump shooting. Hopefully Jrue can assume the defensive role. The less Green the better- but its hard to argue that he did not fill a role as a shooter last year. Amongst a crowd of smurfs even the midget stands tall.
OK, HTML killed my post!!! I fogot the "less than" symbol deletes things...
this is what was cut out:
Aside from Green they had only one player with a 2pt jump shot% over 40% (Miller at .406 I believe.) Young, Lou, Iguodala, Ivey all were less than 37%! Speights only .355, Sam .290. Green at .422 was far and away their best 2pt jump shooter, and that was what he did.
OK, I can agree with this. When compared to Andre Miller's terrible on-the-ball defense, Willie was less terrible. When compared to Lou, Iguodala and Thad's horrible percentages on 2- and 3-point jumpers, Willie was less horrible.
But that was last season, this year, we're comparing him to different players. Jrue's on-the-ball defense is supposed to be stellar. Carney and Kapono are much better shooters from three and Kapono is a better shooter on two-point jumpers as well. Ivey's better from three and a better defender.
Yep we agree, and I hope you are right. Long term I see very little role for Green. Just not so sure he can be phased out the first half of this season.
Here are my minute projections (posted on recliner before training camp:
Projected Minutes and Rotations:
The depth and youth of this team makes projecting minutes difficult- and makes for an interesting season W/L aside.
Starters: Iguodala(38), Thad(36), Brand(35), Lou(33), Sam(22)
Primary Subs: Speights(24), Green(16), Smith(11), Kapono(11), Jrue(10)
4 situational minutes left for Carney/Ivey/Brezec
Later maybe more for Jrue and Speights if they are ready (taken from Sam and Green)
………………………………………………………………….
Starters: Lou/Iguodala/Young/Brand/Sam
1st subs (8 min mark): Speights/Green for Lou/Sam (Iguodala defacto PG!)
2nd Q starters: Jrue/Green/Iguodala/Speights/Smith
2nd Q subs: Kapono for Iguodala (3 min mark)… then starters filter back in over last 4 min of half
2nd Half: Same as 1st half, but probably less Jrue until he earns it. Also expect Speights to finish out the game unless a defensive stopper is needed.
Later in the year Speights could make a push to start in place of Sam. Jrue could take Green’s spot as 1st G off the bench.
As for Carney/Ivey/Brezec one will be DNP and the others will be situational. Carney will be given the chance to push Green for minutes as the year progressed. And of course there are always injuries to open up more minutes for reserves.
And based on what I've been hearing, Carney could make a run at some of Green's minutes.
That would be just fine by me.
"Also expect Speights to finish out the game unless a defensive stopper is needed."
Uhh, when is a defensive stopper NOT needed in games vs. good teams and when the game is close?
Already starting with the focus on having offensive players on the court over defensive players. I don't like that mentality even a little bit.
AND with regard to Speights it would have been more accurately stated "unless a defensive stopper AND defensive rebounder is needed" which well we all should know and agree that those traits have precedence especially late in close games when stops and finishing off defensive positions by securing the ball are equally if not more important than more offense.
I don't at all see how having Speights on the court end of games as a plus unless he drastically improves his defensive rebounding and overall defense. He would likely give up equal to or more than he provides on the offensive end.
My opinion.
I don't disagree with your premise. I just think both Speights and Sam bring strong net positives and negatives. Sam can kill you down the stretch with bad decisions or save you with defense.
IMO if Brand is back to where he brings strong defense and a 10reb/2blk type interior presence you can put him next to Speights. If Brand is not bringing top level defense or in hurt (like last year) then Sam needs to be in there.
And yes, I am counting on Speights being an improved defender and rebounder this year. If not then the equation changes and tips back to Sam.
Jrue had difficulty adjusting to his role at UCLA. Although it wasn't his natural position. The kid has to grow. I'm sure when he earns it, he will get minutes. Best case scenario, as stated in previous blogs, he grows quickly like Thad.
Willie is well liked by coaches. He's a conservative choice for backup guard because he does what the coaches ask of him; However, that's not good enough to qualify him for minutes on a quality team. I don't think we are a high quality team, yet. I would expect as Jrue grows, Willies minutes will decline. Although, I don't see Willie getting more than 12-15 minutes a game anyway.
I hope as the season goes on, Jrue grows into a defensive stopper role. Similar to the role Ivey played last year with a few more minutes per game. We shall see.
As Hollinger stated per Brian's Tweet:
"Signed Rodney Carney to a one-year deal for the minimum. I really liked this deal from a value perspective, as Carney is only 25 and was productive last season for the Timberwolves. It's surprising he didn't command a better deal. He should see heavy minutes as a wing reserve, especially if Jordan brings the Sixers' inexplicable, half-decade-long compulsion to play Willie Green to a merciful end."
Can we all agree along w/ the experts that Willie Green belongs either on a DNP or traded. I think any intellegent person can agree the only reason Green plays is if we stink at his position. Clearly, by designating Lou as a starter this year, the team realizes Willie Green is not an answer or even in the planet of answers (No pun intended!). Carney, Jrue and even Ivey should be ahead of Green on the depth chart and any intellegent fan would agree (sorry if I offend someone but if the shoe fits, please wear it!).
Agree with the experts? Since when did Hollinger become qualified to be an expert. He watches the same games all of us do.
And if you think a rook who hasn't even played a minute yet should be over a veteran, then I'm trying to find the intelligence in that. And I think the head coach would question why he is considered unintelligent also.
He's more expert than you
You did not discover that willie green sucked - it's been known by clear thinking folk for years now - even some before billy king signed him to a long term deal (twice after the injury voided the first agreement)
I'm gonna miss posting here
OK...... Sorry..... Hollinger, is, more expert than me. I mean, he is, an ESPN Insider.
You packed your mining tools today, huh? With all this 'discovering' you seem to be on...
Well you showed me there didn't you. What with your inability to do more than argue rhetoric and hyperbole...
DeanH wrote: "Carney, Jrue and even Ivey should be ahead of Green on the depth chart and any intellegent fan would agree (sorry if I offend someone but if the shoe fits, please wear it!)."
Green should NEVER have been an NBA starting PG. An indictment on the organization either for starting him or not acquiring a better option these past years...
But you are comparing him to a bunch of flawed players, so it is not clear cut IMO and will stand by that (no matter how my shoes are described :)
Jrue: struggled as a college SG last year. By all accounts a good energy defender with size and a solid handle. Beyond that he needs to PROVE he is ready to play at 19 in the NBA before I know he should be ahead of Green. I'm hoping by mid-seasion he proves he is ready to get Green's reserve minutes.
Carney: Worse hnadle, much worse 2pt jumper than Green. better 3pt jumper, better defensively against SG's (but can't cover PG's that Green can.) Less of a stabilizing influence on the court but more of a spark than Green.
-Sounds like Carney is stepping up and earning some of Green's minutes. Good news IMO, but no way is he a clear cut better NBA player than Green.
Ivey: A better energy defender than Green. Maybe a better 3pt shooter. Possibly the worse 2pt jump shooter and inside finisher I have ever seen for a big guard. Sort of like Reggie when he shoots anything but a 3. Overall worse than Green and should probably get no minutes given Jrue gives the same defense with way more upside.
"Jordan's first year with the Wizards saw him rely on Hayes in the middle"
The middle? Guy's a swingman.
tk76. Thank you for your comments, you are correct on all your points, I will admit when I am wrong.
Along w/ an opinion that Thad is the one to watch on our team, more juice to support my thoughts on WG:
ESPN insider:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trending down: Willie Green
Last season: 11.10 PER
2009-10 projection: 10.70 PER
Somehow, some way, Green completed another season as an NBA starter. He's now started 169 games over the past three years, and you'd be hard-pressed to name a more mediocre player who can boast that line on his résumé.
What Green likes to do is shoot mid-range J's and in-between jumpers. Those happen to be the worst shots in basketball, but they make up nearly half his attempts. He shot reasonably well on those shots (43.5 percent) and converted at the basket (53.8 percent), but because of the lack of 3s and free throws, his true shooting percentage (TS%) was an ugly 49.3.
Although he's a low-mistake player in terms of turnovers and mental gaffes, his inability to either make 3s or get all the way to the basket makes Philly's continued insistence on using him as a scorer baffling.
And that's the point - willie green to me has never been any better than eddie house - and no one in the nba thinks eddie house is a starter - green is fine as a 10 MPG 8/9 guy on a rotation but the sixers don't use him that way - his skill level doesn't come CLOSE to justifying his minutes - and if the sixers wanna win a title - someone better than willie green has to take willie greens minutes.
DeanH, thanks, and I can easily understan how Geens's immense suckitude over these past years as a starter can lead one to a bit of hyperbole or exaggeration.
In fact I feel a bit dirty after spending all this time trying defend him. He is the Manny Medosa of the NBA.
I think the 'debate' is one of 'parsing' - i would guess if he only got 10-15 minutes a game he'd be league average - but at starters minutes his numbers just suck worse? He's just out there SO MUCH when he shouldn't be - and he's a bench guy...(then again, for same amount of money i would have preferred BK chose Salmons over Green)
The only recent NBA starter at guard who even approaches Greens level of mediocrity is DeShawn Stevenson, you know that guy who started for Eddie Jordan next to a chucking "PG" all those years... uh Oh.
If Willie Green is more than a 10 mpg 9th-man in the rotation by midyear, then either 1) Holiday has been a HUGE disappointment or 2) the roster has been ravaged by injuries.
I also liked the point above that the idea to start Speights when Brand went down (for all of the right developmental reasons...Iggy/Thad at the 2/3...not giving rotation minutes to a guy - Evans - who was a horrible player and not in the teams future plans...etc...) was ripped by many as a ridiculous plan because his defense wasn't good enough (even though the majority of his minutes were with guys like Lou and Ev ans)...but it's perfectly OK to throw Jrue right into the rotation and deal with the growing pains in his game for the sake of the future...
And PLEASE do not come back with the "well, the Sixers were in the playoff hunt last February" crap - Brand was gone for the season...we weren't going to win JACK last year...and keeping Speights on the bench and playing Iggy/Thad at the 3/4 did SQUAT in terms of player/roster development.
And now - with Brand and his "PhillyMax" contract back on the floor - it's OK to force Holiday onto the floor - even if he's not ready.
Nice.
.but it's perfectly OK to throw Jrue right into the rotation and deal with the growing pains in his game for the sake of the future...
Well it's apples and oranges - the alternatives are different - and holiday plays defense
I would agree that it is a good thing that Holiday plays defense...but I would argue that the Sixers have better alternatives to giving Holiday minutes than we had to give Speights minutes back in February when Brand went down. Going back to Iggy/Thad at the 3/4 was "fools gold"...a quick "sugar rush" that felt good at first, but it only sent you down the same freaking road than you had decided the prior season was not in the best long-term interest of the team.
OK, so what do you propose we do about it at this point? Fire Tony DiLeo as head coach? Done. Can we move on now?
Sweet response, bro.
Can you admit that, in your 11:30AM post in this thread, you are proposing the EXACT OPPOSITE of what you were saying when the Speights-as-starter idea was banged around on this forum last spring? Back then, you argued that the team was winning games and it made more sense (even though Brand was out and they weren't going to win a chip) to play Iggy/Thad at the 3/4...and the hell with player/roster development.
Now, you want Jrue to be the first guard off the bench - as much for player development as anything. Right?
So...it was OK to START Willie G at SG, move Iggy/Thad to the 3/4 and put Speights on the bench (and pizz away player development for wins), but now it's OK to play Holiday ahead of Green - and potentially putting player development ahead of wins...
Right?
First of all, I think I've clearly said that I don't see Jrue over Willie as development over wins. I see Jrue as better than Willie in both cases. I may be in the minority, but that's how I see things right now.
Second, I don't really know why you think I was against starting Speights after Brand went down for the season, go read this post.
My point is, what fucking good does it do constantly griping about a decision that was made in February? The reason they made the decision, ostensibly, was to make the playoffs. In my mind, that's a worthwhile goal. Personally, I think it was the wrong decision to achieve that goal, since anyone would've been better than Willie, but so be it. Everyone but you has moved on from it, what I'm concerned with at this point is that the new boss isn't the same as the old boss.
Irrespective of profession, no two bosses are the same.
Irrespective of profession, no two bosses are the same.
I really don't care if everyone has moved on from it. I think that the "Lou and Jrue Show" (if you get your way and they are our PG for this season) is a good way to pizz away another year of Brand's contract.
I hope I'm wrong. I hope that Lou steps up (although playing a few more minutes last season at PG would have helped - yes?). I hope that Holiday's offensive game allows him to pass Green and be playing 15-18 minutes a game by March. I hope that Speights game is ready to go to the next level. I hope that Iggy is ready to play 25 mpg in the backcourt.
Until this team shows me that we didn't pizz away this season because we MADE THE PLAYOFFS LAST SEASON!!! (freaking yay), I'm not letting it go. I think Stefanski is over his head.
or, in the immortal words of Pete Townshend...
"Meet the new boss...same as the old boss"
Oh, it's nice that I wasn't the only one who saw that flip-floppy contradiction. Bri, I wish you'd pick a leg to stand on--you're like a bloody millipede on the keyboard :)
RIGHT NOW, there is NO rational way to affirm that Jrue is, overall, better than Willie. We'd like to think so perhaps, because, as I've said before, we are, in varying degrees, *not* big Willie fans (heh) and it's alarming otherwise to imagine our so-called "steal" not being able to rise even to Willie's level, age be damned.
But be that as it may, since we know Jordan's not a rookie-hater, we'll have to trust, for now, his insider's assessment of the situation as it stands right now. Yes, it IS possible you could be wrong about Jrue (for right now). It's not the end of the freakin world, your ego will undoubtedly survive.
As for Willie...
In THIS offense, this is actually a desirable trait. There is a lot of running and cutting, it's not so much about breaking individuals down off the dribble.
He's jack of a few trades, master of none, but the few bits he's passable in make him tailor made for this system (as a backup).
There is a chance, however remote at the moment (though not non-trivial), that we'll be relieved Ed kept Willie around a while longer.
Agree 100% with this post, Real.
In a 8th/9th role off the bench, Willie is fine...and as you say, this offense should play to his strengths. Reading Kate Fagan's report yesterday (where Holiday had several turnovers in the scrimmage), it is simply RIDICULOUS to think that Holiday would be better than Green in this offense for a while...if we would have needed to heep our expectations rational for guys like Lawson and Maynor (guys who played PG in college for YEARS), it is a JOKE to think that Holiday is ready to play ahead of Green.
You could, of course, go ahead and play him ahead of Green anyway...because Holiday is the future of the team. Will he make mistakes? Sure. Could we potentially lose some games because of how raw Lou and Jrue are at running an offense? I expect it.
But if everybody is willing to look past what is good for the team now (which is putting Green ahead of Holiday in the rotation...or Stefanski having a vet PG on this roster for that matter) in the name of player development and the future, at least acknowledge the hypocracy (sp?) versus the decisions made last spring...and how - in retrospect - how ridiculous it was to manage the roster for a few MEANINGLESS ist round games.
OK...I'm finally done with this (I think).
Good post by Bebop and Speightac. I'm sure there will be a time this year where I am bitching about Jrue not getting enough minutes. But for right now Jordan has to install a new offense and defense and have some semblance of order out there. If playing a mediocre Green 15 min/game helps lend some stability to start the year, I'm fine with that.
As I said, at some point Jrue needs consistent PT for the sake of his development. Hopefully he can earn it this year by merit. But I'm not expecting to see a ton of him for a few months.
Do you see the irony here at all?
Last year when Brand went down, I argued for starting Speights, sliding Thad to the three and Iguodala to the two. Now, I'm saying give the minutes to Jrue instead of Willie, for the same reason, basically.
You're the one who has changed your tune, arguing against minutes for Jrue in favor of Willie.
Brian:
If your position truly was that you supported starting Speights - and did not care about the impact it would have on making the playoffs - then you have my sincere apologies...
I am STILL pizzed at Stefanski and DiLeo, though...
;-)
Here's the post, although there's a distinction. I wanted Speights to start for the long term, and the short term. The same way I want Jrue to start for the long and short term.
If Jrue is able to defend well, which I understand is not a sure thing, but all signs seem to point in that direction, then that's one more thing he does well than Willie does. Willie is a zero in my book.
Missed that post...well-done by you, sir.
I agree with it in its entirety.
While you could say many of the same things about how to handle Jrue here, it is a bit different in the sense that a PF can just be out there...pick up things over time...let the game come to them. The PG does not have that luxury. You have the ball a lot more, and you have a much lower threshhold of tolerance for less-than-smart decisions with the ball. You have the ball a lot more...so you are more of a focus of the defense...
That discussion is for another time...but I appreciate you setting me straight on your position on Speights last spring.
Hm. Yes, I think that thread may've been my very first post at this site. Would that were the only post or comment Brian's made on the matter, it could lie still. But there's a reason a few of us thought there was a contradiction/flip-flop. I say your tone/argument "evolved" over the ensuing weeks and months or else the rest of us are on the same halucinogen.
It'll be great when we can sign in with the ability to track our comments and thought trails more easily.
At the risk of over-reacting... read this in the Daily News today from Cooney(new beat writer?):
"* Smith does a nice defensive job on Elton Brand. Smith's combination of length and strength seem to give Brand trouble."
Is it just me. or does the notion of Brand being contained by Smith's defense troubling? I'd much rather hear about Brand dominating out there...
I don't see Smith as being all that strong (maybe this has changed) or long (his standing reach is the Same 8'10" as Thad's. I remember him as quick, but he's coming off of an ACL repair. Any dount that Brand in his prime would be giving Smith all sorts of problems?
Of course this is premature, but based on what we saw from Brand last year I'm dying for some news about him tearing it up out there (well maybe not the best choice of words when we are discussing Brand and Smith ;)
Not funny :)
Well, I do remember some reports about Smith actually bulking up and getting stronger over the summer, especially after he got cleared to play. I am taking it as a positive in Smith's direction.
Willie Green sucks. How anyone can watch the games and not conclude otherwise is Beyond mystifying. The Sixers have already made him rich--now they need to show him the door (or at least the end of the bench). He should not take minutes from Holiday (or Ivey or Carney).
Here's hoping that the more Jordan watches him, the sooner he'll come to his senses.
In order to take minutes from someone, doesn't that same someone have to have them first?
Since willie green should have no more than 10-15 minutes per game - any more than that is theft from the success of the sixers and on the coach for being an idiot...whomever the coach is
One thing Derek did once to indicate that Larry Brown didn't 'hate' rookies was to compare where a guy was picked with the minutes he played versus other rookies picked in the same number...not a refined examination sure but something to indicate that he doesn't play rookies any more or less than any other coach with a guy picked at the same spot.
I'd be interested to see how that applies to jordan :)