DFDepressed FanDepressed Fan

All  

Sixers

, all the time

Lottery Odds Update

http://www.depressedfan.com/img/lotteryupdate040810.jpg
The Sixers hope is definitely alive in the race to the bottom of the NBA. Last night's loss brought them to within one game of the 6th-worst record, within 2 games of the 3rd-worst record. After the jump we'll take another look at the odds, and also talk about the odds should the Sixers finish tied with any of these teams.
Here's the full chart, with no ties taken into account.
http://www.depressedfan.com/assets_c/2010/03/lotteryodds031410-thumb-536x383-12202.jpg
If there's a tie, things get a little bit jumbled. The teams split the ping pong balls for both spots evenly (with a coin flip deciding who gets the extra one, if the total is an odd number. The coin flip also decides where the teams pick, should they not secure one of the top three picks). For my purposes, I'm looking at the odds of getting in the top three more than the odds of getting the #1 overall pick, so let's take a look at what those numbers look like.

  • 10th-worst (no tie) - 4% chance of a top-three pick
  • 9th-worst (tied) - 5.5% chance of top-three pick
  • 9th-worst (no tie) - 6.1% chance of top-three pick
  • 8th-worst (tied) - 8.05% chance of top-three pick
  • 8th-worst (no tie) - 10% chance of top-three pick
  • 7th-worst (tied) - 12.5% chance of top-three pick
  • 7th-worst (no tie) - 15% chance of top-three pick (currently where the Sixers stand)
  • 6th-worst (tied) - 18.25% chance of top-three pick
  • 6th-worst (no tie) - 21.5% chance of top-three pick
  • 5th-worst (tied with 3 teams) - 18.9% chance of top-three pick
  • 5th-worst (tied with 2 teams) - 21.9% chance of top-three pick
  • 5th-worst (tied with 1 team) - 25.4% chance of top-three pick
  • 5th-worst (no tie) - 29.2% chance of top-three pick
  • 4th-worst (tied with 3 teams) - 25.8% chance of top-three pick
  • 4th-worst (tied with 2 teams) - 29.5% chance of top-three pick
  • 4th-worst (tied with 1 team) - 33.5% chance of top-three pick
  • 4th-worst (no tie) - 37.8% chance of top-three pick
  • 3rd-worst (tied with 3 teams) - 33.8% chance of a top-three pick
  • 3rd-worst (tied with 2 teams) - 37.9% chance of a top-three pick
  • 3rd-worst (tied with 1 team) - 42.4% chance of a top-three pick
  • 3rd-worst (no tie) - 46.9% chance of a top-three pick
I'd say 10th and 3rd, with no tie, are probably out of reach right now. Any of the other outcomes could happen, so we could be looking at the difference of a 5.5% chance of a top-three pick and a 42.4% chance. Every. Loss. Matters.
by Brian on Apr 8 2010
Tags: Basketball | Lottery | NBA Draft | Sixers |