Whether or not the Sixers truly believe it or because he's only listed at 6' tall, the Sixers have used Louis Williams as a point guard and a shooting guard while he's been in Philadelphia. The numbers presented earlier in the Iverson comparison (to me) indicate that he's less of a point guard (already) than Allen Iverson who I never really viewed as a point guard.
However, there is one more piece of (limited) data available to us. In construction of the rotational database (data courtesy of Brian & Derek) that you are welcome to peruse (http://www.hoopstudy.com/index.html or send me an email regarding a specific player combination you'd like to see), I tested the database with a few queries to see if the numbers came out right. One of these tests was to see how the Sixers did with Louis Williams depending on his position on the floor. What I saw after 7 or 8 games stuck with me so I wanted to look at it for this article. We've got 13 games this year and Brian kindly provided me his rotational sheet from last year (for the first 57 games) that I could look at as well.
Through 13 games this season, Louis Williams averages about 22.5 minutes per game and has an overall +/- of -23 in all rotations he's played in. Here's what happens if these numbers are broken down by position:
For the first 57 games of the 2009/2010 season (which I believe will end up being Louis Williams career best season):
Obviously, last years Sixer roster had a much different system and roster rotation in place. Louis Williams was the starting point guard for a majority of the season. Of the 57 games that Brian tracked last season, Jrue Holiday was only the starting point guard for 4 of those games and of course was still a rookie adjusting to the league (with a coach who was a fool). In addition, last year featured the pointless Allen Iverson Homecoming experiment, which did little to help the Sixers on the floor (but might have helped Comcast's bottom line, I don't know.)
So, first off, it seems with a new (smarter?) coach and Jrue Holiday being fully given the reins of the point guard position, Louis spends a lot more time at shooting guard, and his point guard numbers are a lot worse (to date) than last season but I think I might have an explanation for that (coming later)
Next, let's look at Louis Williams shooting guard numbers with one more level of detail. When Louis plays shooting guard, Jrue Holiday or Evan Turner is the point guard of the set:
(In case anyone was wondering, those numbers there are the ones that jumped out to me when I was doing my testing.)
In contrast, Louis Williams has played with five different shooting guards when he played point guard this season; Iguodala, Kapono, Meeks, Nocioni and Turner, and the only PG/SG combo that has a non-negative net is with Turner, but only at +2 over 4:43
Earlier the numbers indicated that Louis Williams was more successful as a point guard in the 2009/2010 season with a net +28 in over 900 minutes of point guard play. I didn't integrate the 2009/2010 numbers into my database but I was able to look at the various shooting guards Louis Williams played with. Louis Williams played point guard with Royal Ivey as the shooting guard for slightly over 66 minutes and had a net +37 in those 66 minutes.
Today (November 23rd), Doug Collins announced that Iguodala would return to the starting line up and that he would keep Evan Turner in the starting line up as well:
Conclusions - Louis Williams as point guard
Louis Williams isn't a point guard. He may be 6' tall and skinny, but he isn't a point guard. Lou is most successful (either at the point or shooting guard position it seems) when paired with a 'true' point guard, with a defensive tenacity. The point guard numbers from last year with Royal Ivey and the numbers with Jrue Holiday this year indicate to me the beginning of a rather obvious trend of when Lou should be on the court.
Conclusions - Louis Williams - the player - and how best to use him
I now believe after looking at these numbers that I have a deeper appreciation of what Williams can and can't do, and that maybe in the future, I'll be less harsh on him when he fails to do what I want him to do because maybe it's just not in his game.
Louis Williams is a scorer, he shoots a good percentage, he seems able to draw fouls and shoot a good free throw percentage. His three-point field goal percentage isn't half bad either. He is a strong influx of scoring off the bench when you need it. Louis Williams isn't a point guard, he doesn't create well for his teammates, he turns the ball over a bit more than I'd like. Louis Williams isn't a defender, he's bad at it, for lack of ability or lack of effort, I don't know but he's not a defensive plus when he's on the floor, and, in fact, it seems that he's only a net positive on the floor when paired with a strong defender in the back court.
I've presented a lot of information about Lou in these two articles but what do I think it should mean regarding the 2010/11 Sixers going forward? I'll present that in bullet point style for ease of reading:
Comments as always are welcome and thanks for your indulgence (Brian and readers) for reading this far if you have. I promise I'll get better at this sooner or later.
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It is certainly a lot fo work done to realize that Lou isn't a real good player for an NBA team. He can't defend at all. Well thats 50%. He doesn't pass much or create for his teammates. Thats 25%. And his other 25% worth is hi scoring and that is hot or cold. No consistency at all. And his height is an x factor in a negative way. I see no real value as him being on the team unless you look at him as a manager of a baseball team looks at a pinch runner or a lefty specialist. Rarely playing.
Thanks for the work, GoSixers.
I don't think I agree w/ your idea to start Lou, though. When Lou is on, offensively, he can be a destructive force and more than make up for his defensive shortcomings, but it's still a crapshoot, and there are huge trade offs when you put him on the floor. First, you can pretty much forget about running any offense, he's going to dominate the ball and dribble way too much. He has a role on the team as a scorer off the bench, and I agree that he should always be on the floor with a legit point guard, but I think it sets a bad precedent having him out there with the starting unit.
You want to use that first run of the game to get into your sets, see what works, what doesn't, get shots for all your players to see who's hot, who has an advantage. Kind of set the baseline for the game, poke and prod the defense to see what you can go back to throughout the game. Starting Lou to see if he's hot feels very similar to what they used to do with Willie. Give him 5 or 6 shots in the first, if he's hot, you stay even. If he's not, you're down 10 after the first.
Also, don't confuse the role in which Lou plays best with the role for Lou that's best for the team. Kapono probably plays a lot better with Jrue and Iguodala on the floor with him, but that doesn't mean you should start him between them.
You want to use that first run of the game to get into your sets, see what works, what doesn't, get shots for all your players to see who's hot, who has an advantage.
More often than not the sixers 'lose' the first portion of the first and the first portion of the third quarter, the sixers stink in the 3rd quarter, the sixers starting 5 gets out played more often than not as it is currently constructed. I'm saying put Lou on a short leash, if he starts out hot than the sixers maybe start out hot as well and aren't so far behind from the jump and maybe aren't so piss poor in the 3rd
Yeah, I think the slow start and slow start to the third has more to do w/ the guy in the middle than the SG. I'd rather address that than take a drastic measure which will hopefully mask it, but is just as likely to exacerbate it.
Spoelstra's days are numbered:
"He's jumping on them," one source told ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard. "If anything, he's been too tough on them. Everybody knows LeBron James is playful and likes to joke around, but Spoelstra told him in front of the whole team that he has to get more serious. The players couldn't believe it. They feel like Spoelstra's not letting them be themselves."
God forbid the coach says anything negative to LePippen.
If anything, he's been too tough on them. Everybody knows LeBron James is playful and likes to joke around
Like that joke he pulled against Boston last year by not playing?
I wonder if they'll bitch to the press when Riley calls LeBron a sissy and says Magic would've never acted like this.
My favorite rumor is that Wade doesn't want to play for Riley...it really is
Wow. When did that happen? Mayo lost his starting job in Memphis to Xavier Henry. I wonder if he's available.
It happened a couple days ago (he's on my fantasy team) and he's performing quite well off the bench. Seems to be working out well for Memphis.
I think he's getting more minutes than Henry and more 'crunch' minutes but for some reason he's performing better without the start
Apparently the reason is that the Grizzlies' bench was getting killed, so they put Mayo with the second unit to hopefully correct this.
Man, Thabeet is almost as bad as Cousins.
Mayo was also performing not so good as a starter, i was almost ready to waive him
I'd say Lou can't be your only primary ball-handler on the floor. Its not so much "PG" since Lou often acts as the PG when he plays next to Jrue. Its more Lou can't be relied upon to share. So you need another player or 2 on the floor with him who does.
I also agree with Brian that Lou as a starter is a bad idea. His high usage will make it harder for the other starters to get in the flow. He much better suited as a spark off the bench. When the team is sluggish he is the perfect antidote because he creates his own offense.
One reason Lou has bought into the bench role is that Collins has guaranteed him 4th qtr minutes as a "closer." I have mixed feelings about this. he can be dominant in the 4th... or he can kill you. The whole good/bad Lou conundrum- but with the game on the line. I guess its OK as long as he has a short leash. If he's looking weak at the 8 min mark pull him for Turner or Thad.
I thought Collins was supposedly a 'good' coach. No one should be guaranteed minutes in the 4th quarter especially a one dimensional player like Lou who when he is off he'll kill you.
I'm fine with giving him a chance at the start of the 4th. Then if he's cold the pull him. If he's on then ride him.
I believe that is what Collins has been doing.
It's lite, not light. You can't use light that way.
Thank you Funk & Wagnalls
Although, I've never corrected anyone's internet English usage, I don't mind that others do. But in this case, Tray, you are wrong.
In his defense, if anyone else had written the article, he wouldn't have said anything :)
Seems to me you wasted a lot of time analyzing lou's "point guard" skills when all you had to do was watch one or two games to figure out he can't play point.
He can't run a set offense, doesn't know how to run a fast break unless he is the finisher on the break,can not play a lick of defense (see the two games against clevelend when gibson killed him}and i don't know how you think he is a good shooter, he is shooting 35% this year and had one game when he was 10-11. lou should only play 5-6 minutes at a time because any longer and the other team will finally send in a guard that will score on lou at will. at best he is an offensive specialist that should only play at certain times in the gamge when he can;t be taken advantage of defensively.
Thanks for your helpful input
Great Article. I was thinking today that Lou may be the starter since Collins has hinted that Turner will be returning to the bench. You have to get scoring from the 2 spot and I think Lou has proved he can do that.