As the static summer grinds on in Philadelphia, rumors of another Eastern Conference playoff team possibly making drastic changes are beginning to surface. We'll take a look after the jump.
Earlier Wednesday, ESPN reported the Lakers withdrew their contract offer to Lamar Odom. Later that night,
two rumors made the rounds regarding the Miami Heat. The first rumor was a five-year, full MLE deal for Odom (about $34M total). The second was a three-way trade landing Carlos Boozer in Miami as well. The only notable name leaving Miami would be Udonis Haslem and his expiring contract. Memphis would be the third team, landing picks, cash and a throw-in player to make the numbers work. Utah would save the difference between Haslem's contract and Boozers, times two because of the luxury tax (possibly as much as $10M). Miami would also send Dorell Wright and one more player, possibly Chris Quinn, to make the deal work under the cap. Wright would probably go to Memphis, along with the cash to pay his $2.8M salary.
If both rumors came to fruition, the Heat would have a rotation that looks something like this:
- Chalmers
- Wade
- Boozer
- Odom
- Beasley
- Jermaine O'Neal
- James Jones
- J. Moon
- D. Cook
While I don't really think Boozer is a good fit in Miami, Odom would fit perfectly. He's exactly the type of complementary player the Heat need to share the floor with Beasley and Wade, two guys who aren't shy about jacking up shots. Odom's defensive toughness is sorely needed down there as well.
One more important aspect to these moves, they'd almost guarantee Miami would not be a player in next summer's free agent market. They'll be over the luxury tax just by re-signing Wade, and they'd also hold Boozer's Bird Rights. Essentially, this would be a one-year tryout for Boozer, but it would erase all their cap space for next summer, should they want to move in a direction other than Boozer's. Thanks to Jeremy in the comments for correcting this section. The Heat would probably be able to afford signing Wade to a max extension and possibly have enough cap space left over to bring in another max deal, depending on where the cap comes in, if both of these trades were made.
The question is, would these moves keep the Heat above the Sixers in the standings? Personally, I don't think the Heat were a better team last season, but they did finish that way in the standings. For my money, Odom alone would make them a much better team, and probably a legit contender for a top four, if not top three seed.
Here's a look at the improvements playoff teams in the East have made thus far:
- Cleveland - Added Shaq, added A. Parker. Improved
- Boston - Added Rasheed Wallace. Improved
- Orlando - Added Vince Carter, added Brandon Bass, lost Hedo. Questionable.
- Atlanta - Added Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams up in the air. Questionable.
- Miami - Nothing, yet.
- Philadelphia - Added Jrue, Kapono. Probably losing Miller. Worse.
- Chicago - Lost Ben Gordon. Worse.
- Detroit - Added Ben Gordon, Charlie Villaneuva. Questionable
Overall, it could break either way. Right now, I'd say the Sixers have a shot at moving up the ladder in the East if everything breaks their way. If Miami can pull off at least the Odom signing, it's going to be a much tougher road.
If the Sixers replace Miller with the "Lou and Jrue Show" at PG for 2009-10, even with Brand's return and continued improvement by the young guys, we lose ground in the conference, and will be fortunate to finish in the playoffs.
I agree. We lost our point guard (Miller) and addressed our lamentable shooting with one - count him - one guy (Kapono), who by all accounts plays zero defense.
Now we have to put up with a backcourt of Iggy, Lou, Jrue, and Willie Green for an entire season???? I mean, COME ON! I hated myself last year... I'm gonna be a headcase if I have to watch THAT all season!
No offense to Iguodala, by the way. I like him, but the guy's obviously not a prototype shooting guard. For the good of the team, I sure as hell hope he succeeds at the position, but...
Anyway, I seriously doubt we're better than a 7 or 8 seed with this lineup... destined to lose a first round playoff series in deplorable fashion... probably getting swept. What fun, what fun.
We needed to find a way to get something in return for Miller... it kills me that Ed couldn't find a way to do it. True, the summer's not yet over, but things are looking dim.
No one has even made an MLE offer to Miller, not sure how ES can get something back for him when no one seems to want him at all.
Well according to reports one team made an MLE offer to Miller.
The sixers.
And he turned it down.
Today Post speculates probably based on something his dog said to him while he was smoking peyote that the knicks could get Miller for the MLE for one year, which makes very little sense to me considering reports are he already turned down the MLE from Philadelphia and Philadelphia is a better place for Miller at this moment if he's going to try and earn a 2010 contract, his game doesn't fit D'antonis uptempo but never win a title system.
Miller might be able to juice his stats more in NY than in Philly this season. The Knicks have zero talent, he could probably justifiably take 20 shots/game on that team. Plus, he'd have a coach who could care less if he couldn't stop me from penetrating.
I really don't think the Sixers even want him back on a one-year MLE deal.
I can't see why they wouldn't want hi back for the MLE even if just for insurance against Lou not panning out...if they don't want him back under any conditions I'm going to really start to question whether Stefanski knows WTF he is doing.
What other FA PGs would be worth a one year deal over Miller? That ought to be interesting. Or is it purely cheap ass cost savings?
This is what I heard, actually from a source believe it or not. Miller was unhappy at the end of last season being paid $10M, they think if he comes back for the MLE he's going to be pissed off all season. They invested this money in Lou because they're confident in him, they need to see if he's capable of starting and bringing Miller back will only delay the youth movement another year, and could potentially hurt the team.
Look at it this way, Miller thinks he's worth a lot more than the Sixers offered. Right now, the Sixers are the only team capable of paying him what he believes he's worth. If he winds up signing in Philly for much less than that amount, he's going to be bitter and he's going to hold the Sixers accountable. If he signs somewhere else for the MLE, that team doesn't owe him anything and he's really just playing for a bigger deal next summer. Make sense?
Yeah, except that if he signs in philly for the mle - being bitter and a malcontent still hurts his 2010 free agency :)
Though, now you have a magical unnamed source huh - not sure we should believe you :)
So two years of back up PG hasn't convinced them it's not lou's position huh?
If this source is available, can you ask if they'll at least CONSIDER an open competition in training camp?
True, he would be playing for a contract in Philly, but if the offers are equal, I think he'd probably pick the other team, probably out of spite.
Well, yeah, I hear ya. I was thinking more globally, perhaps. There was and always has been some level of interest from the Blazers in Miller, dating back to the trade deadline last season. And there's no way anyone can tell me that there aren't some teams out there that could benefit greatly from bringing a point guard of Miller's caliber on board if the right trade was proposed. He's not Willie or Sammy for crying out loud... a decent trade should be possible.
So, as I said, we're now sitting in a position where we're going to get nothing for him. With hindsight, it looks to me like Ed should have bit on that Blake/Lafrentz(expiring $12 mil) for Miller/Evans deal (if it was actually on the table and according to David Aldridge it was). Sure, we used Evans to get Kapono, but think of the trade off. Personally, I'd much rather have Blake and Lafrentz than Kapono... plus, we could have used the Lafrentz money to pick up any number of shooters with a broader range of skills than Kapono.
We're just in a bad spot right now because of the nearly complete mishandling of the Miller situation.
There was and always has been some level of interest from the Blazers in Miller, dating back to the trade deadline last seaso
It's been reported, but the offer at the deadline was weak and the Blazers have denied all S&T rumors that were fed to the media. I'm almost convinced that Portlands interest is mild and over stated by the miller who is his agent (just like the S&T to new york) to get other teams interested. I don't feel the Blazers interest in miller was ever to the level reported, if at all...and they've had more than enough time to talk to him and offer him a deal and as of yet have not.
Would Lafrentz expiring contract have put the sixers under the salary cap? the ifference in salaries would have been that much?
Nope, they would've taken back more money in the deal, if they'd made the deal sending Miller/Evans to POR for LaFrentz and Blake, the Sixers would have the difference in Blake's salary and Kapono's salary right now as extra wiggle room under the luxury tax ($2.2M), but they'd still be over the cap.
Of course, they would've missed the playoffs and gotten a higher draft pick, so you'd have to factor in the cost of the higher draft pick into the equation, so maybe subtract a few hundred thousand from that number.
So it would have been a pointless trade, but they would have added blake and maybe drafted a shooter instead a few picks higher, but who knows, maybe still drafted jrue since they wanted him at 12.
Good non deal - of course I wanted miller traded in the 07/08 season at the deadline when i felt his value was much higher
Yeah, my guess is they would've still drafted Jrue, they'd just be paying him more.
I understand the frustration, and the question marks on the roster, but has anyone below us really gotten significantly better?
SIGNIFICANTLY better? Who knows. But I think that Miami certainly can be better, and I would think that the Wiz (with an upgrade in coaching and a roster - if healthy - that looks to be significantly better than what they had last season) could be a much improved team this season.
I think that this will go one of two ways - Lou either steps up, in which case we will be better, or Lou can't handle it, in which case we will be worse...
Which one do you feel makes more sense right now?
Well, Miami was already ahead of us. I'm not sold on Washington at all. Detroit strikes me as a joke. Rose will improve, but they lost Gordon and really their primary scorer. Toronto...I like Jack if they get him, but they're probably the softest team in the league right now.
As for us, I really don't know what to think about Lou. If he starts at the point and doesn't adjust his game at all, it's going to be disastrous. He used over 27% of the team's possessions when he was on the floor last year. If that number even approaches 20% with him as the starting point, it's simply not going to work.
It's our shooting that will again kill us. My god, we're gonna have to find a way to get at least 18 minutes per game out of Kapono if not more, but his defense is going to be a huge liability.
You mention the idea of having Iggy and Thad on the wings and counting on one (or both) of them to improve their 3-point shooting. You just said a mouthful... one of those guys, probably Thad, better become a reliable sniper pretty damn quickly or we're in deep sh!t... it'll be just like the beginning of last season where Brand was getting killed down low because nobody could hit a shot and other teams keyed on the poor bastard.
The P.O. should alleviate some of those problems we saw with Brand. IMO it wasn't the shooting so much as a poorly designed half-court offense which basically left Brand alone in the post on the strong side w/ no outlet. He should get the ball in space much more frequently.
You're right though, they need to find a way to get Kapono decent minutes in the rotation and Thad needs to continue to improve from three.
As it stands...just with the development of Michael Beasley and Chalmers the Heat are a better team than the Sixers right NOW. Do you even have to ask the question if they were to get ODOM AND Boozer would they be better than the Sixers ?
Im a sixer die-hard but looking at the improvements all the other teams have made...even with Orlando falling off a little (no Hedo)...I see the Sixers as a 7 or 8 seed or maybe in the lottery narrowly missing out on the eigth seed.
Miami right now is debatable. You're right, with either Odom or Boozer, they're definitely better. With both, they could challenge for a top-three seed, if they can find enough shots for everyone, which is also debatable.
I think you may over state how developed Beasley and Chalmers are so far.
By the way, as I see it, the 2009/10 sixers have already added 4 players, not just two, Brand and Smith are 'new'.
I agree re Brand. He's kinda like a new addition. Smith...doubt he's going to offer much (positive) impact. We have three huge IFs circling in the waters...Brand, Lou and Jrue. We just have no strong idea how they're going to pan out. Based on their most recent performances, one is inclined to remain unthrilled. We can expect improvement out of Marreese and Thad tho. That's somethin.
Orlando's unquestionably improved since they managed to keep Gortat and can expect Jameer to come back around, too.
Also, Detroit lost McDyess, so net loss there.
Lee and Hedo vs. Carter and Pietrus isn't an improvement, IMO. They also gave away a ton of depth. Their summer is questionable to me.
Hm. Fair enough. I think it's a very clear overall improvement, but I guess we'll see in a few months' time.
I've noticed you say this (about Orlando) a few times and I have to disagree with you. I think Vince is an upgrade over Hedo. Their numbers are nearly identical across the board. Statistically, they're in a dead heat. Hedo is two years younger and several inches taller.
You'd think given that, Hedo has the advantage in predicting the future. However, we all know that Vince Carter does not play his hardest unless he thinks he's surrounded by a contending roster (he admitted as much shortly after his trade to the Nets). When his stats playing with a bunch of young gunners are the same as Hedo's playing with 3 all-stars, that says to me he's poised for a jump back into the limelight.
Except that it wasn't just Vince for Hedo straight up - it was vince for hedo and courtney lee and a guy who performed well for them in the playfoffs...in the off season they've added Bass, kept Gortat and got ryan anderson. Who is their back ups at the one and the two right now? They eliminated almost all of their back court depth.
Looking at it as just a hedo for vince swap ignores all the facts in my opinion. ON the surface I think it's pretty much even since Vince doesn't present the match up issues the 6'10 hedo presents at small forward even if he might be a better offensive player, but it's the rest of it that hurts the magic - you need a solid bench - and the magic don't have one any more - not in the back court
Gortat and Bass will more than make up for Battie, they will just re-up Anthony Johnson or Tyronn Lue (if AJ is a free agent, not sure though), and JJ Redick is the backup two. They are or will not be as depleted as you continually mention.
You're right, those guys are the equivalent of Rafer ALston and Courtney Lee - no doubt
you mentioned bench players. Rafer and Courtney Lee were starters and are being replaced by jameer nelson and Vince. You didn't ask about quality of backups, you just asked who were backups at one and two positions as if they don't have any. Backups get minimal minutes anyway and Redick was given substantial time thru out the whole playoffs.
I didn't like the Orlando move personally from day one - keeping Gortat makes it slightly better (i thought they weren't going to keep him) and adding bass adds slightly more depth - but I think they stripped their back court depth and lost the advantage of turkoglu 'mismatch' at the three. I think at best the magic are 'equal' to what they were last year.
Well, they went to the finals last season so I guess if that's the bar they can only improve by winning it all. Hm.
What's the word on Rashad McCants? If we picked him up, would he be useful to us or would he spend his time sitting on the bench watching Willie Green look like crap?
Weird stats, by the way... Looks like he had it going on during 07-08 (FG% of 45.3%; 3P% of 40.7%; 14.9 ppg). Then something happened, apparently, and during 08-09 he looked like crap (FG% of 39.3%; 3P% of 33.3%; 9.6 ppg), playing only 58 total games for two different teams. What precipitated that dropoff?
McCants had a golden opportunity in 07-08. Terrible team, all the shots he could take, etc. Those minutes and shots disappeared in Minny when they traded for Mike Miller.
Overall, he's too much of a gunner for me. Usage percentage is way too high (uses way too many possessions). It's funny, he's kind of an even year/odd year player. Every other year he's good.
A high usage percentage is normally a bad thing (see: Williams, Louis), but I can live with it if the person in question is reasonably efficient. If McCants could replicate his 07-08 numbers in a Sixers uniform, I'd be fine with him hogging the ball just a little bit. ;) And, frankly, that 40.7% from three-point range gives me reason to want to give him a chance (at about $1 mil for one year's work).
My calculator is broken, can anyone tell me what 1/15 from the field translates into for a FG%?
6.25 percent
My bad, it was actually 1/15. 6.7%.
Good lord, that was Mr. Lawson, huh? Was he wearing a blindfold?
Ha. Ha. True, it's not nearly as sexy as Curry's .325 FG on a jillion shots, but I think Ty'll adjust and figure it out. He's done it before.
And when he does, of course we'll go back to the old, "it's just summer league, it doesn't mean anything" mantra. Count on it.
And, as if on cue, no sooner said than done. This is much more like what was expected.
We'll see if he can keep it up in this season of mean-nothing.
Man, Byars can't even barely crack a summer league roster?
Get that calculator fixed?... Or just buy a new one? :)
I like the blog but your wrong about the Heat having no money next year if they get the Odom and Boozer.. Boozer, Jermaine O'Neal, Marc Blount and Yakuba Diawara's contracts come off the books in 2010.. So if they re-sign Wade to a max deal, they still have O'neal's 20 mill to spend.. Wade will get the extra 9 mill from Blounts contract.
You are correct, meant to check the numbers. They'd be around $38M w/ an extended Wade and Odom under contract. Depending on where the cap falls, they could have enough for another max deal, but they'd only have 6 players under contract: Wade, Odom, James Jones, Chalmers, Beasley, D. Cook.
assuming beasley and chalmers continue to progress, max out bosh and you have a nice core to fill out with vets and minimum salary guys?
THough not sure whose in the middle :)
Hollingers chat sucks today
Yep, Hollinger was late to boot!
That's a decent core, I'd like to see someone who plays defense mixed in, but that's just me. They should trade for Sammy.
Yeah except that in your working the trade for sammy must net a center too - tyson chandler?
There's a rumor floating around on 'thelakersnation.com' (which i can't connect to because it got mentioned on a major LA sports radio so it's traffic is probably out of hand...that ODom and the lakers have agreed in principle to a 4 year 36 million.
About Miami and the cap, there are cap holds if you drop below a certain number of players signed to your roster Don't remember the specifics, but it might eat away some of the cap space from your numbers.
The cap holds are only for minimum contracts, though. They don't really mean a whole lot.