By now, you already know the Sixers have an 18.3% chance at landing a top three spot in tonight's draft lottery. You may or may not know their odds of walking away with the #6 or #7 pick is over 70%. If you aren't into odds and you just want to know how you should feel during the painfully slow and drawn out unveiling later tonight, check after the jump. I've created a viewer's guide tailored specifically for the suffering Sixers fans.
The chart below will take us right through to the final three. Print it out, keep track at home, follow along here. Whatever floats your boat. One quick note, once you get below the #9 pick, the guide assumes the Sixers ball hasn't already come up, obviously. Once their pick is set, I could care less what happens with the rest of the lottery.
Enjoy, and as I'm sure you already knew, we'll have a live blog right here to follow along. The post will be up sometime around 5pm, so check back and if you're glued to the TV, drop by for the celebration (hopefully).
Your "#8 - Washington" reaction made me laugh so hard that half-a-dozen people looked at me...
Let's pray that we see that tonight.
i'm so f'ing nervous.
I'm up in Secaucus with my "I survived the Eddie Jordan Era" t-shirt on :)
Nice. Is Doug Collins there wearing his Sixers gear?
Hah. Not at the nba studios yet. Heading over there at around 5. We actually have a datacenter built out up here, so I'm just working from there today, then heading over.
Jay Bilas has cole aldrich as #12 (and greg monroe as 6) so maybe he's not a total doofus.
I have a prediction I won't make out loud
Monroe at 6 makes him a doofus.
Should be there about 5:30. They've finished at their projected spot nearly every time I've been to NBAE for the lottery.
That's not really all that surprising as that's how it 'should' play out.
The 'worst' record has only gotten #1 twice in the modern (14) team lottery - and the first time was when cleveland got lebron (which I still think was just as fixed as ewing going to new york) And when Orlando got Dwight (I think) according to ESPN this morning.
I have no rational reason for my feeling but I don't think the sixers are picking sixth in this draft
As long as it's 1, 2 or 3 and not 7, 8 or 9 ...
They've finished at their projected spot nearly every time I've been to NBAE for the lottery.
I'm trying to figure this comment out. The Sixers finished in the top three four times in the 90's (2nd in 1993, 3rd in 1995, 1st in 1996, 2nd in 1997), which would leave five other times when they finished about where they were supposed to be (1994, 1998, 2004, 2006, 2007). Are you remembering the three appearances in the 2000's? Because the Sixers actually had pretty good lottery luck in the 90's.
Perhaps I'm remembering the 2000s more.
But the Sixers had the second-worst record and most chances at the No. 1 pick in 1996 (Grizzlies and Raptors were limited by being expansion team) and landed atand the second-most chances in '97 (ended up second). The only year they made a jump was 1992, when they went from No. 9 to No. 2.
CORRECTS TYPO IN MAIN GRAPH. Sorry.
Perhaps I'm remembering the 2000s more.
But the Sixers had the second-worst record and most chances at the No. 1 pick in 1996 (Grizzlies and Raptors were limited by being expansion team) and landed at No. 1 and the second-most chances in '97 (ended up second). The only year they made a jump was 1992, when they went from No. 9 to No. 2.
Maybe I'm missing something, but in 1997 they had the 4th-worst non-expansion record and finished 2nd; in 1995, they had the 4th worst record and finished 3rd. In 1993, they moved from 5th to 2nd but under a different lottery system. In 1996, they stayed where they were slotted, but it was only a 33% chance at getting the 1st pick, so it was still a good outcome. The history is here: http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html
(By the way, in 1992 they didn't move from 9th to 2nd, they stayed 9th -- Weatherspoon. 2nd was Mourning.)
Wrong year -- my fault. Sorry. 1992 was another year they stayed the same (ninth).
They went from fifth to second in '93.
Believe these are the lowest lottery odds for teams getting No. 1 pick in the last 20 years:
1.52 percent - the Magic (1993, Chris Webber)
1.7 percent -- the Bulls (2008, Derrick Rose)
from wikipedia:
In October 1993, the NBA modified the lottery system to give the team with the worst record a higher chance to win the draft lottery and to decrease the better team's chances to win. The new system increased the chances of the worst team obtaining the first pick in the draft from 16.7 percent to 25 percent, while decreasing the chances of the best non-playoff team from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.
I feel like the way to win the lottery is to send some dorky P.R. or front office guy. I feel like a lot of those guys end up winning and having to talk.
Was it Dunleavy for the Clippers last year? All I remember is how sad Griffin looked.
Nope, team president Andy Roeser. Bulls had a goofy guy who said call a certain number for season tickets so that's two in a row for the goofy white guy theory. Who would that guy for the Sixers be? Zumoff or Mike Preston would get my vote. Blazers sent Brandon Roy when they won.
Pat Williams has won it 4 times.
That would definitely influence the outcome of a random drawing, you're right
Getting a sarcastic/goofy comment and taking it seriously while trying to establish a sort of superiority. Good contribution.
How do you know we pick 9th after NO is the 1st draw? Don't 3 teams below us have to be drawn?
I swear I understand this less every year.
If New Orleans drops to #14, that means Houston, Toronto and Memphis have all jumped into the top three, and we've dropped down to #9.
I already sent the last 20 No. 6 picks to my sports editor, just in case.
Thanks Brian.
I see above that Bilas has Greg Monroe going 6th. What am I missing with this guy? I didn't see him play much, but he just looks so ordinary. And he's about 6'7" isn't he? He's Walter Berry.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Greg-Monroe-1109/
Not sure if anyone is on twitter besides Brian. Just saw this tweet:
"KDthunderup Draft lottery tonight..I wonder who's gonna win...Ima go with Philly...any bets?"
At least Kevin Durant is feeling good about our pick tonight.
Chad Ford is officially on my list:
Any one employed by ESPN should already be on yoru list (except of course for the baseball folk since you loves how they loves your team :) )
Re: Ford's comments, what kind of vet/contract are we looking at for the 6th pick (hypothetically)?
I have no idea. Really, no idea at all. That's exactly the opposite of what the Sixers need to do.
I just can't take Stephen A. Smith's idiocy anymore. http://bit.ly/dBJZKO How does he have a job?
He jumped the shark somewhere along the way, maybe when he got the talk show.
Jumping the Shark implies at some point that you were 'on course' - dude has always sucked
If the Sixers hire Collins and pick #7 (or trade it) it might be hard to stay very engaged with the team for the next few years.
I'm sure I will convince myself to find interest in a middling playoff run, but it won't be easy. But I'm sure their are fans who will take my place who prefer any playoffs over the pain of a full rebuild.