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No Deja Vu, Please

aljefferson.jpgA three-game win streak is great. Two on the road, even better. One at Toronto, great. I know I've been feeling a lot better about this team and their future over the past three off days. That can all change very quickly, though. In fact, it changed pretty quickly after the All Star break last year, in Minnesota against the T-Wolves.

If you can remember back that far, the Sixers finished the first half on a great note. They were coming out of the break with a favorable schedule laid out in front of them and they were looking to make up some ground in the eastern conference. The stars seemed to be aligned until the T-Wolves blew their doors off and crushed everyone's confidence. It was the ultimate trap game and the Sixers fell right into it.

After the jump we'll take a look at the T-Wolves and pick out a couple of keys for coming away with a win and a record over .500 for the first time this season.




The T-Wolves, my embarrassing pick to click in the Western conference, come into the game at 1-8. Let's not talk about how Philly teams have fared against 1-8 teams this week, though. Let's try to stay positive.

First, we should look at how Minnesota got to where they are right now. Of their 8 losses, they lost two games in overtime and blew fourth quarter leads in two more. This record could be deceiving. Minnesota is led by their big man, Al Jefferson, who has turned into a complete beast on the low blocks. Elton Brand will have his hands full with Big Al, the key will be making the T-Wolves' bigs on the defensive end. Al isn't what I'd call a plus defender, Ryan Gomes is under-sized and Kevin Love doesn't have the foot speed to keep up with EB. That's a big advantage and the Sixers need to capitalize.

Speaking of the bigs, at some point, the T-Wolves will move Kevin Love into the starting lineup, but he isn't there yet. This is an advantage, Gomes is averaging a paltry 3.8 rebounds in nearly 26 minutes/game. In fact, as a team, Minnesota is getting outworked on the boards by 3 per game. This does not bode well.

What do the Sixers need to avoid? Well, there's always the standby area of emphasis, defending the three. We can boil this one down pretty quickly, never, never, never, ever, never, nomatterwhathappens, double off of Mike Miller. Miller is shooting 42% from three. If you're going to double, and I think it's probably a good idea if you can stay disciplined, you have a couple of options as to who you can leave, namely Rashad McCants (shooting 18.8% from 3, averaging 3.6 attempts/game) and Randy Foye (shooting 24.1% from 3, averaging 3.2 attempts/game). Those two guys aren't shy about heaving threes, and it's probably in the Sixers' best interests to encourage them to keep gunning. Gomes has been surprisingly solid from range, he's hitting at a 37.5% clip, as opposed to 33% last year. He's also averaging nearly 2 attempts/game, so Sammy or EB is going to have to vacate the lane when he drifts on the perimeter.

Truth be told, the Sixers should have no problems at all scoring against this team. They've got advantages at 4 off 5 positions when the starters are on the floor, and even Sammy is probably a wash. The tip is at 8. Leave your thoughts in the comments, as usual.

Extra credit:
I usually try to pick one thing to follow throughout the game (Iguodala's shots, EB's touches in the post, passes/possession when Lou is running the point). After three days off, I could use some suggestions for what to keep track of tonight. It should be something you can't pull out of a box score, and something that sheds some light on the inner-workings and/or true performance of the team. Leave your ideas in the comments.

19 Comments | Leave a comment

good writeup brian. I would suggest 2 things to keep track of. Willie Green possessions...and end of game exection...say the last 8 minutes of the game. (somehow I feel this may be crunch time...although it shouldnt be..but then again The Eagles shouldnt have tied the bengals either)

Man, I really hope this game is decided before then. Garbage Time is always fun to keep track of.

By Garbage Time I meant Willie, not actual garbage time.

Hey Brian, heres something to track, how about turnovers created versus team turnovers. I'd like to think that this isnt the case but I feel like Speights playing instead of Sammy has turned the ball over less and had a great deal of pressure on defense as well. This kid looks good and is still so raw.

Something I've thought about tracking is fault on turnovers. They always give the TO to the passer, but sometimes it's obvious that good passes have been dropped (Sammy?). That could be interesting.

Speights is young and raw, and in my opinion, not ready to start yet. I do, however, think at some point either later this season or maybe to start next year, he will be the team's best option at the 5.

Speights, Brand, Thad, Iguodala and Miller that could be your starting lineup opening day next year, if Miller is extended or signed.

wow...I guess that would mean your expecting sammy to get dealt. If not, that's alot of duckets riding the pine (11,360,000 for 2009/10, 12,200,000 for 2010/11). Speights can play, with more polish he is the 5 of the future. Anyone think sammy's expiring contract will eventually be a HUGE bargaining chip down the road? I do.

If Speights really progresses, I'd expect Stefanski to possibly explore a deal for Dalembert, although I don't know how many takers there would be. It would probably have to be bad contract for bad contract.

Even if he can't move Sammy, that's not his bad contract. He doesn't have to play Sammy to justify the amount he paid him. Sammy is BK's mess, and much like Dantoni is doing in NY now w/ Marbury and Curry, I don't think the Sixers would let a contract from a previous regime dictate playing time.

I have confidence they'll make the right decision, if we reach that point. I don't think we're there yet, though. Sp8's minutes will continue to increase throughout the season, probably at the expense of both Sammy and Evans, and we'll just have to wait and see what Sammy's role will eventually be.

I wouldn't do bad contract for bad contract unless there was some upside. Like, the deal we get back expires before sammy's deal or something. Even then I'd have to think hard because sammy is still servicable when his head's right. I wouldn't want slop for slop especially if it means ruining cap space after the 2010/11 season.

This is a list of possibilities, just based on a quick scan of the salaries in the league:

Jason Richardson (same length, more money)
Kirk Hinrich (extra year, less money)
Jason Terry (extra year, less money)
Al Harrington (one less year, less money)
Troy Murphy (same length, less money)
Mike Dunleavy (same length, less money)
Peja (same length, more money)
Jamal Crawford (same length, more money)
Boris Diaw (extra year, less money)
Brad Miller (one less year, more money)
Caron Butler (same length, less money)

Does anyone on that list really excite you? Me neither. If there's a trade out there to be made, it's probably not going to be a one-for-one deal. I also read that Sammy has a pretty significant trade kicker (25%) which would make it even harder to deal him.

Good point. Your right, none of those names excite in the least. Sam should stay unless Ed finds another deal with multiple players or speights starts playing out of his mind. It's incredible how many marginal players have extraordinarily bad contracts around the league.

Brian over the last couple of games since Mo reduced Lou's minutes I have been trying to take note of how often he lets Iguodala initiate the offense from the 'point forward' position and the teams' successes from it.

I obviously don't track this as in depth as you would (why do you think I visit here everyday!!) but it has seemed to be more positive possessions than negative. Iguodala seems to be so much more aggressive when put in this situation and when he attacks the hoop he will not hesitate to dish off and set someone else up or worst case end up at the line, that is if he doesn't finish himself.

Brian...I think you found what to track all on your own. Defensively, the Sixers double way too much, IMO. A lot of it is unnecessary, especially on the perimeter. It's like a knee-jerk thing with them. You should track how many times the Sixers double (I know it will be a lot), say whether or not it was a good decision to double, and then track the results, like how many uncontested shots (wide open threes or layups) the Wolves got as a result and how it impacted the game.

You're the winner for tonight's game.

Defensive double teams, good or bad decision, who came to double and the result.

That should be a fun one to track.

Thanks. I look forward to reading about it tomorrow. I really think this automatic doubling hurts us against the better teams. We can get away with it against the weaker ones, but it's something we need to correct if we plan on making a deep run this year, IMO.

Doubling will probably be called for tonight. Jefferson is a beast down there. When we wind up doubling Jeff Foster and Rasho Nesterovic, something's wrong.

I can't for the life of me understand this team. Clearly looking for a three and they have Green and Iggy out there with .17 left? Cheeks needs to play offense defense with Iggy in those situation.

"What do the Sixers need to avoid? Well, there's always the standby area of emphasis, defending

the three. We can boil this one down pretty quickly, never, never, never, ever, never,

omatterwhathappens, double off of Mike Miller."


Good call

Yep. Brian called it...sure enough , game on the line, the sixers leave Miller wiiiidddeee open for the game sealing shot.
Looks like its not phillys week for beating 1-8 teams. :/

He actually played offense/defense there, but w/ the wrong guys. He was shuttling Willie in for Sammy. Rush and Marshall absolutely have to be on the floor in that situation.

Marshall was inactive, right?


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