OK, I'm running out of excuses. As the
Sixers walked off the court to a chorus of boos I was left thinking, "Can you really blame the fans?" I can't, not tonight.
I'm going to get all of the finger pointing out of the way right now, then after the jump we'll take a closer look at some patterns throughout the game and see if we can't figure this mess out.
Here are my blame bullets, in my order of importance. Worst to least:
- The Sixers play their best quarter of the season in the third, outscore the Jazz 30-14, and take control of this game. Mo decides to run with Willie and Lou in the backcourt to start the third. 6 minutes later, Willie is still in the game, the Jazz have gone on a 13-2 run, and the game is over. Why, for the love of God, was Willie in the game? He's done nothing but torpedo this team with his piss poor defense and horrible offense. His offense has gotten so bad no one will pass him the ball anymore. They basically play one on four when he's out there. Lou has been miserable as well. It was obvious very quickly that those two were killing the team, if Mo needed to rest the Andres, why not go with Ivey and Rush in the back court for a couple of minutes? They couldn't have done any worse.
- When the Andres finally did get back into the game, Iguodala made two lazy plays that resulted in points for the Jazz. Once, the ball went off a Jazz player's leg and trickled into the back court. Iguodala didn't run after it, assuming a kick would be called. No whistle, dunk on the other end. The second time, EB knocked the ball away from Milsap, it rolled right by Iguodala and Dalembert, neither guy bent over to pick it up. Boozer scored on the inbounds play. Two possessions, pissed away. You can't do that down the stretch, if ever.
- Only 4 steals. This team thrived on steals last year, now they can't buy one. What happened?
- Take away the brilliant third quarter and they had 15 turnovers in three quarters of work. It's amazing they were able to claim the lead at all, and no shock that they coughed it up.
- Miller led the team in FGA, again. Not his fault, he was on tonight, but a trend that cannot continue if this team is going to succeed.
Much more after the jump.
In light of the Sixers newfound dedication to spacing, and also as a response to Iguodala's sluggish start, I kept track of two things throughout the game tonight. Elton's touches in the post and Iguodala's shots. For the former I tracked how they spaced the floor, and the end result. For the latter, I tracked the type of shot, whether I thought it was a good shot within the offense and the result.
First, a high-level look:
- 1st half
- Brand gets the ball in the post 2 times
- Iguodala gets 11 looks at the hoop (including fouls in the act and turnovers on the way to the hoop)
- The Sixers lose the half 49-37
- 3rd quarter
- Brand gets the ball in the post 7 times
- Iguodala gets 4 looks at the hoop
- The Sixers win the quarter 30-14
- 4th quarter
- Brand gets the ball in the post 4 times
- Iguodala gets 4 looks at the hoop
- The Sixers lose the quarter 30-13
That first half is pretty telling. It seems to me, despite the lip service they paid to the Inquirer, the Sixers were intent on getting Iguodala on track. Bad decision. Forcing things to run through him is a great way to keep him mired in the slump he's in. Fixing the offense as a whole will accomplish the job in a much quicker, effective way.
The third quarter numbers are decieving. Yes, the Sixers showed a commitment to feeding Brand in the post, but they did a horrendous job of spreading the floor as you'll see below.
Here's the breakdown of the 13 times EB got the ball in the post, how the rest of the team spaced the floor, and the end result:
- 1st quarter
- High post, good spacing, available outlet - Missed jumper (good shot)
- Low post, bad spacing (clogged lane) - Made fall-away jumper (tough shot, converted)
- 2nd quarter
- 3rd quarter
- Low post, good spacing, available outlet - Made baby jumper (good shot)
- Low post, bad spacing (no outlet) - Missed jumper (forced shot)
- Low post, bad spacing (no outlet) - No shot taken, turnover after ball was finally kicked out.
- Low post, bad spacing (no outlet) - Ball outletted to middle of floor, then jumper is missed by A. Miller.
- High post, good spacing - Give and go with Miller for an easy layup. Pretty play.
- Low post, bad spacing (no outlet) - EB turnover
- High post, bad spacing (clogged lane) - Missed baby jumper (forced shot)
- 4th quarter
- High post, bad spacing (no outlet) - EB tied up, jump ball.
- Low post, bad spacing (no outlet) - Missed jumper, offensive rebound was converted.
- Low post, bad spacing (no outlet) - Missed jumper (forced)
- High post, bad spacing (clogged lane) - Blocked shot, forced.
I realize EB's numbers have been down so far, his offensive numbers, at least, but look at what's going on with this team when he gets the ball. They fed him in the post 13 times total, 7 of those times he didn't have anyone on the strong side to pass to, 3 times the lane was clogged up because guys were hanging around the basket. Only three times did they have an available outlet for him and proper spacing. The problem here is that the team, collectively, thinks that when he gets the ball the set is over. They expect him to take the shot. When teams double, they don't adjust, they don't help him out.
The three times they actually spaced the floor well turned into two made shots. One on a give and go when Miller's man left to double and they executed the give-and-go. The other make came when there was no one close enough to Brand to quickly double and he overpowered Millsap. The only time Brand was able to get the ball out of the double, Miller missed a contested jumper from the elbow on the opposite side of the floor.
The Sixers are getting absolutely nothing out of the double teams Brand is drawing, and it is by no means due to a lack of outside shooting. This, more than anything else, is going to submarine this season if they don't figure it out quickly.
Before we get into Iguodala's looks, I want to say this was not an overall bad game from Andre. He shot the ball better, I thought he made good decisions and didn't force too many shots. He had two lazy plays in the fourth, but if he turns in an effort like this every night, this team can and will win a ton of games. You can't put this one on him.
- 1st quarter
- In the post - Travel. (good play, bad result)
- Alley oop - Pass broken up (good play, bad result)
- Catch and shoot off curl - Make (good play, good result)
- Isolation, three-pointer - Missed (bad shot)
- Hook shot in the lane - Missed (desperation shot, got the ball with 1 second left on the shot clock)
- Drive to the hoop - Fouled in the act (good move, good result)
- 2nd quarter
- Jumper off dribble - Missed (bad shot)
- In the post - Blocked (good play, bad result)
- Putback - Make
- Drive to the hoop - Missed (good play, bad finish)
- Drive to the hoop - Turnover (bad play, forced)
- 3rd quarter
- Drive to the hoop - Fouled in the act (good play, good result)
- Catch and shoot three-pointer - Make (good play, good result)
- Jumper off the dribble - Make (good play, in rhythm, good result)
- Drive to the hoop - Turnover (good play, better defensive play)
- 4th quarter
- Jumper off the dribble - Make (bad play, good result)
- Drive to the hoop - Fouled in the act (good play, good result)
- Jumper off the dribble - Missed (forced, bad shot)
Andre finished 5/11 from the floor for 15 points with 10 boards, 5 assists, 2 steals and a block. His 4 turnovers were too high, and he took maybe one or two more ill-advised shots than I'd like to see, but he's making progress, or at least getting back to where he was last season. Like I said, you can't hang this one on him.
Thad had a bad night shooting the ball (3/15 FGA, 0/2 3PA), but did everything he could to make up for it elsewhere. He grabbed 11 boards, 5 offensive, and dished out 4 assists.
I mentioned earlier that EB's offensive game hasn't been where it should be, but tonight he showed why he was worth every penny of that contract. The third quarter run was fueled by the Sixers defense, and Brand led that charge. He finished the night with 6 blocks, I believe 4 of them came in the third. He was a one-man wrecking crew and his defense ignited the team.
It's hard to take away positives from yet another home loss, so I'll leave you with this stat to hold you over. The Sixers were +12 in EB's 34 minutes of action, -18 in Willie Green's 12.
Player of The Game: Andre Miller. A solid game, and consistent scoring when they needed it in a variety of ways. He finished with 25 points, 6 assists and only 1 turnover.
Team Record: 2-5
Up Next: Tomorrow night @ Toronto. Good, get the bad taste out of your mouth right away (hopefully).
Brian,
The depressing thing so far is I don't see much evidence of visual progress that the team is starting to 'get it'. They look badly out of sync. It is still early but I have to say I made a mistake in thinking with EB they'd be a standout. They still have time to turn things around but they need to make some progress.
How is Speights doing? I'd have thought he could make a difference even if he is a rookie. He has some really nifty offensive moves near the basket.
Speights really isn't getting any minutes. I don't think integrating him is a priority right now. Mo needs to figure things out with his starters before he starts worrying about a role for Speights. At least, that's what I think his priority should be. Honestly, if I was Mo I'd cut back on the minutes for everyone off the bench and have the five starters out there as much as possible until they figure out how to play with each other and execute the strategy.
I'll have a post tomorrow about something positive I saw tonight that they can definitely build on. For now, I'm going to bed to hopefully forget about this game.
This isn't what you're going to say, but could this positive thing possibly be Iguodala not playing like a total dickhead? Or maybe it could be Royal Ivey's solid 70 seconds of play. Seriously, he's my favorite bench player right now (besides Speights). He doesn't actually do anything, but he doesn't do anything stupid either. This is way more than you can say for Green, Williams, or even Rush. Solid third-string point guard.
Now THAT would be a great headline for tommorrows blog...
"Iguodola continues to play like total dickhead..." ...lol.
Ivey really is a younger version of Ollie, it's uncanny. I haven't seen enough of him to know if he's good or bad, but he seems to hustle at least.
I think if we're gonna be serious about challenging in the playoffs then we have to wonder how we give so many minutes to Willie Green. I mean, Juan Dixon barely got playoff minutes for the Pistons last season and he's way better than Willie.
It's amazing how you make it so clear, Brian, yet the players seem so confused out on the court. I really have to wonder if it's the coaching staff that are failing to explain it to the players because if they emphasize it enough in practice they should be starting to adapt by now.
Daly, Brand, Thad, Iggy, Andre
Speights, Evans, Rush, Lou, Ivey
Ratliff, Marshall, Green
To be fair, we don't know what goes on in practice. That article from the Inquirer yesterday is a really positive sign, as far as I'm concerned. Back to the basics of spacing. They need to keep hammering that home, and not only in practice. They need to get them in the film room and show them what's happening to Brand when he's abandoned in the post and when the lane is clogged, how easy it is for the double to get there, and even for a third guy to help when he splits the double.
I'll have more on this in a post later today.
One things for sure, if Mo doesn't stop playing willie all these minutes, it will cost Mo his job. The plus minuses when he's in and out is ridiculously telling. The guy's a black hole on the team. I'd buy him out right now just for the sake of the team. I think a coach like Phil Jackson would have sit willie last year...I don't understand why Mo won't do it.
Any thoughts on how long stefanski will put up with this slide before making changes?
1/4 of the season. If we don't see them get their heads screwed on by then I'd expect something. To be honest, I kinda think there's something going on behind the scenes right now, but if after 20 games they're say, 5 games under .500 we'll see something tangible. Who knows, maybe there's a worse contract than Willie out there that we can swap straight up.
Oh, and another thing. Does anyone have a running plus minus of willie in game and out of game? Is there a website that tracks this? I'd like to see what it was last year and what it is this year.
I can't find a cumulative total, but they do have it in the box scores on NBA.com. I used to keep track every game, but I found it too frustrating after the first couple of games this year.
Here are Willie's numbers, I pulled them from the box scores while I ate my breakfast. The number in parens is the +/- when he was on the bench.
vs. Utah: Willie -18 (+5)
@ ORL: Willie +3 (-13)
@ MIA: Willie -22 (+5)
vs. Sacto: Willie +18 (+16)
@ ATL: Willie -9 (+2)
vs. NYK: Willie +22 (+7)
vs. TOR: Willie -14 (+3)
Totals:
With Willie on the floor: -20
With Willie on the bench: +25
Average negative effect, per game: -6.43
First time posting but this has been a daily must read for the last year and a half for me. As a former player and current pick-up game player, the breakdown and insight is brilliant. One question as I have watched every game intently; what is the plus/minus with Lou on the floor instead of Willie? Your post from a few weeks back about Lou and Willie not passing and jacking up shots really was spot on.
I know there hasn't been a lovefest for Willie on here going back to last year but from what I see Lou appears to set them back just as much (although I know they are on the floor together the majority of the time).
Thanks for commenting Bryon. I'm putting a post up in response to this comment.
Sixers are one of the 10 worst teams in the league right now...maybe even one of the worst 5. They are the worst team in the division. The rebuilding nets are better at this point...at least they have been in almost every game and have beat some good teams.(detroit)
I think Mo has to shoulder a lot of the blame. The players arent THAT bad....and I hate to quote the fat man here but its true. "A coach needs to put his players in the best possible position to win"
I mean these coaches watch tape...couldnt they see that Iguodola cant shoot and that moving him to SG could be a disaster ?
Brand is only effective with one on one coverage...hes not good enough to beat the double team and he has no one to pass to when he gets doubled. This team is in trouble...forget about 4 or 5 seed. I think making the playoffs would be a victory at this point.
Even considering the excellent third quarter against the Jazz, I really can't see the current starting lineup producing consistent victories this year.
If that's what Ed and Mo come to realize, they only have a few options and they all relate to improving the offense via better and more reliable outside shooting.
1) Sit a wing player (either Iggy or Thad) and bring in Rush or LouWill. I don't think the $80 mil man will be benched, so this would mean sliding him back to SF and benching Thad. I don't like that either, since he's looked like the best player on the team so far... plus he's versatile and can hit an outside shot when he's open... so why would we sit him?
2) Sit Sammy and bring in Rush or LouWill. This has been mentioned before. Basically, everyone slides down and we play small ball (sort of). Iggy moves to SF where he belongs. Thad plays PF, which we know he can do. Brand is a small Center, but he probably has just enough beef to pull it off. Plus, we can sub in both Sammy and Marreese and take advantage of their strengths when necessary.
I really like option 2 and I like Rush over LouWill. His defense sucks, but he shoots lights out, particularly when he's open. LouWill's more of a playmaker than a shooter. He can continue to sub in for Miller as appropriate.
I'd actually be happy if the problem on offense was a lack of outside shooting, but that isn't the case right now. Brand is getting devoured by double teams immediately after catching the ball and they aren't giving him a clear outlet pass to make. The ball never even gets to the open shooters. Until they fix that, we won't know how effective Iguodala and Thad are going to be on the wings in the half court. One thing at a time.
Of your options above, I like Rush the most. But we aren't there yet.
I really don't like creating more of a size disadvantage with Brand than we've already got. Or making Thad play the 4 again. I really hate that. He's the future, and his future is at the small forward spot. Look, as Brian's said, a lot of this is horrible spacing and turnovers. I've said all along that this wasn't a team built to win 50 games, but it is built to win 48 or so. Eventually everyone will start playing up to their mediocre abilities. That's when you can really start talking about making major moves, once people are playing well and it's still clear we're nowhere close to really contending. Right now it's just bad chemistry and sloppiness.