After Elton Brand's dominant performance against the Hawks, the logical focus of a "wrecking crew" post would be the offensive show he put on, but instead let this post serve as exhibit A in the "Do not re-sign Spencer Hawes under any circumstances" trial sure to happen in about three months.
Since my contributions to the game threads since returning from vacation have mostly consisted of a four-letter word and Spencer Hawes' last name, I decided to take use the magic of Synergy to look at double-zed's contributions on the floor last night, focusing on the offensive end.
If you recall, the prevailing logic during his absence was the Sixers needed Hawes' passing skills to loosen up their offense. Since his return, the offense has sputtered more often than not. My theory revolves around one truth (Hawes is a terrible basketball player) and a theory (With Iguodala, Jrue and Turner all on the floor together, the last thing they need is a big man to handle the ball and make passes). So without further adieu, here are the results.
Hawes played 27 minutes (in the 27 minutes, the Sixers were out-scored 53-50. In those 27 minutes, Hawes was involved in 16 possessions, either as the primary passer or the shooter. Those 16 possessions resulted in 8 points scored, or an offensive efficiency rating of 50. Hawes was charged with a turnover on 4 of those possessions, and dropped a pass at the rim for a fifth turnover which was charged to Iguodala. For some perspective, the Sixers scored 88 points on their other 69 or so possessions.
I realize this is a supremely small sample size, but I do feel like it signifies a trend. People love to ooh and aah at the nice backdoor passes Hawes makes every once in a while, but the team pays a steep price for those rare contributions. In the beginning of the year, he was shooting an absurd and unsustainable percentage on long twos which made him a viable contributor on the offensive end. Now that he's come back down to earth with his jumper, he mostly gets in the way. It's not as if the team has many options to choose from up front, considering Vucevic's implosion after a promising start to the season, but the front office, the coach and most importantly the players need to realize Hawes is not the answer.
Something was definitely different in the Atlanta game. They only ran that maddening play where Hawes catches the ball 21 feet from the hoop and looks for cutters two or three times the entire night. He was posted out there, calling for the ball, several times, but the Sixers looked elsewhere, usually to the other side of the floor. Whether this was something the coaching staff called for, or just common sense on the part of the players on the floor, it's a trend we need to see continue. Drive and kick. Drive to score. Give the ball to Brand with his back to the basket. Look for a size mismatch on the perimeter and go to it on the blocks. Run Meeks and or Lou off a series of screens to get a catch-and-shoot. These are all much better options than giving the ball to Hawes, and they have the personnel to do it in their starting lineup (and most other lineups) they run out there.
Here's the funny thing, I just spent all this time talking about how Hawes hurts the team on the offensive end. The offensive end is clearly his stronger side of the floor. The damage he does on the defensive end is much, much worse most nights, especially when the other team is willing to exploit his weakness. The good news in the Atlanta game is that he only gave up two offensive rebounds due to being the weakest player on the floor, and/or having his feet glued to the floor. Those two o-boards led immediately to 5 free points. I say good news, because most nights he's responsible for a lot more than 2.
Good writeup Brian. I'll quibble with a throwaway point though. "Run Meeks and or Lou off a series of screens to get a catch-and-shoot."
I don't like Jodie being on the move at all. Lou's pretty good at the one where he fades to the corner for a 15 footer, but I don't really think that's high percentage offense otherwise. Better than "Run it through Spence," yes. Not sure if it's optimal though.
As for Hawes, he was definitely a nice fit for Collins' low risk, jumper happy offense when he was playing well. It's weird, and I have nothing except observation to make this point, but his defense was better at the beginning of the season too. Like, he wasn't a total zero for whatever reason that may be, and with the way he was shooting, Hawes was a pretty good player.
In theory, he's not a bad piece to have on a team with no great shooters that should be attacking the rim. If he makes that 18 footer at 54 percent like he has this year and does nothing else, then he's a guy that can play 15 minutes a night on a team like this. It's valuable to have a guy who can make that shot and clear up driving lanes for drivers. That philosophy would probably best be suited for a short stint guy off the bench who doesn't touch it unless one of the playmakers feeds him the ball for that shot. His passing is criminally overrated. It's just not an important skill for a big unless he is commanding double teams and that's far from the case. He's a quarterback who throws a great deep ball every once in awhile but fumbles a lot and can't squeeze one in there on third and six.
I was fooled by how good Hawes was earlier in the season, but it's become clear that running an offense through a player who isn't a threat to score efficiently or draw help defense isn't a great plan. Has there ever been a very good team that runs their offense through their fifth best player or worse?
The thing that kills me about Hawes is how bad his rebounding is. I understand how he's athletically challenged and is a poor help defender (One of the worst in the league for my money, the anti-Nick Collison) and shotblocker. That makes sense. I don't want to sound like one of those old-timer basketball purists who say the game is all about grit and heart, but he should be a better rebounder. Hawes has one tool that would allow him to be a pretty good defensive rebounder, size. If he wasn't Charmin soft and had the guts to box his man out every time a shot went up, he'd be at least an adequate defensive rebounder. Instead, he shies away from contact. He may use his back as an excuse, but that would just be another reason I wouldn't want him back.
His passing is criminally overrated. It's just not an important skill for a big unless he is commanding double teams and that's far from the case. He's a quarterback who throws a great deep ball every once in awhile but fumbles a lot and can't squeeze one in there on third and six.
I think you nailed it on the head. Hawes 'passing' and 'ball-friendliness' is a direct production of Collins' PR and marketing.
it's pointless if he does not draw double teams. risky bounce passes into the lane? I dont care how many backdoor cuts you make, you're always gonna lose in the long run (Assist:TO) on that. Not too mention from a 7 footer.
Him holding the ball is much worse and makes our offense 10X as stagnant as when Lou pounds the air out of the ball the top of the key IMO.
To add to the analogy, he's a 3rd string QB whose best skill is a situational one, which your starter and back up can perform better and more efficiently ANYWAY.
The thing that kills me about Hawes is how bad his rebounding is.
I don't have the inclination to check the stats closely, but my impression is that his rebounding was quite good earlier in the year. Even now, his defensive rebounding percentage (24.3) is only slightly below Kris Humphries' 24.9, which is 10th in the league. It does seem that since he's come back, Hawes' rebounding has been worse (as has every aspect of his game).
The big problem for the Sixers is that their best defensive center is the same player as their best defensive power forward, Brand. Thad has been good against "finesse" PFs, but he's close to helpless against any PF with a post game. Battie seems passable on defense, but he's close to a zero on offense and can only play ten minutes a game anyway. Vucevic is about the same as Hawes on defense but his offense has been so bad recently (5 for his last 28!) that it's impossible to play him for any length of time.
He gets the softest rebounds of any big man I've seen this season. He gets default "I'm 7feet tall" rebounds
A rebound is a rebound is a rebound
I tend to agree with this. My problem w/ Hawes isn't the cumulative number (or percentage) of rebounds he grabs, it's the rebounds he doesn't grab, and why he doesn't grab them. The two o-boards he gave up against the Hawks are a pretty good example of that. One of them, he just never left his feet and Zaza caught the ball behind him, even though he had good position. The other one, he was just moved out of the way by Ivan Johnson. Those are killers, imo. And this was a problem even when he was playing well (and grabbing a lot of defensive boards).
Hawes is terrible, but honestly, the only people who don't think he's terrible are those who were fooled by an early season mirage that made the entire sixer roster seem better than it was.
The whole 'oh my god they're not good when hawes isn't playing' thing was pure BS, coincidence or convergence of other factors however you want to refer to it.
Of course, I'm glad at least one person was able to point out how Evan Turner is adversely affected after the return of Spencer Hawes. Really, every article needs to focus on how it affects Evan Turner
somehow I dont think there's anyone who doesn't think Hawes is terrible.
When he was playing very well, relative to his normal threshold, it did wonders for the team and I was very happy and somewhat optimistic. Him coming back down to earth is simply a reaffirmation of last season.
My fear is there are two people who don't think he's terrible: Rod Thorn and Doug Collins.
There are people who don't think Hawes is terrible, they show up when he has good games, they've been mostly silent since his return from his 'injury'
As for Brians comment, my belief is that Thorn is still canned at the end of the year, but based on what's going on with ownership public comments, I'm not sure that matters.
PS - does anyone else think it's troubling that these owners feel the need to call up a radio show in response to what a blogger has to say? I find it troubling
He was rebounding pretty well early in the season, ending up with 10-plus what seemed like every night.
I've always grappled with his rebounding numbers, which at least with the Sixers tell you he is a slightly above average rebounder. There's no way those are indicative of his play though. My eyes tell me something different.
I wish someone could track the easy offensive putbacks Hawes gives up that should be rebounds. Really, the only thing you can look at is the Sixers great team defensive rebounding. That suggests to me, and I realize this is very biased, is that many below average defensive big men can contribute to the rebounding because of the system. After all, they are second in the league in that category and he did miss all of that time.
I think a guy like Kris Humphries might have like a 28-30 % DRB with the Sixers. They give up the second most long twos and seventh most 10-15 footers in the league, shots that tend to miss but also aren't threes that produce ridiculous long rebounds. In my opinion, Hawes is being placed in an excellent position to rebound by Collins, maybe better than anyone else in the league.
www.lethawesgo.com
Sorry, I meant we should start a website or a petition. With all the pros and cons considered I still fancy the Sixers' chances with Allen, Vucevic and Battie than Hawes. If that sounds pathetic, that's because it is.
Think the front office will listen?
well-written article, bro. Good insight into a problem that needs fixing.
You didn't offer a solution to the problem tho' except ditching him. (whch I agree with you, we should). So... What should we do when/if he gets ghosted?
Not being a dick, honestly want to read what you think the 6ers should do.
isn't Dalembert only on a one year deal with Houston? Is there any reason at all why they wouldn't at least approach him about coming back this offseason?
unless of course they just try giving 00 a new haircut before each game, that actually seemed to work last season...
Brian, I totally agree, he is taking the ball out of our 3 best players hands. His screening has gotten worse and his shooting percentage has dropped.
My solution is call the Bulls bluff and offer Asik a Gortat like deal. They may choose to amnesty Boozer and start Gibson, I would too. Asik reminds me of Jeff Foster but is a better shotblocker.
He may allow Thad to start next year while our hopefull number one pick [p.f.?] gets groomed to take over. A simple plan to me is amnesty Brand, sign Asik and either draft Ezeli and trade Vuce for Marcus Morris or go with Vuce as a backup center and draft a p.f. .
Telling sequence in the Atlanta game where Ivan Johnson, a 27 year old rookie, pushes him away, grabs the offensive rebound, puts it back and gets the and-one from Hawes. They showed a nice replay of it, and it was way too easy for Johnson. Hawes then gave the bench his patented arms out whiny eyed look and I'm sure he said something like, "but he pushed me!"
The discussion earlier this year comparing our record with and without him really really bugged me, and I think all thoose writers are seeing the light now. Why would they trust two weeks of a 4 year legacy of softness and innefficiency?
Good post Brian. The two Sixers I am actively hostile towards are Spencer and Lou Williams. At least Lou gets hot from time to time.
Its funny, but Evan was a beast until Hawes came back. It may be the case that Evan and Hawes do not play well together.
I haven't even begun to look at the draft yet, just saw Fab Melo is probably going to be a late first rounder. Anyone have an opinion on him?
I asked Derek (via this) that same thing when he was declared ineligible, DX had him as an early second round pick at the time.
That kid from Florida who isn't going to come out unfrotunately looked good in his tourney games in my opinion
not a huge fan but he is probably better then hawes, draft express has him going 29th
Off topic, but can someone tell me what the nba average for points per shot is?
points per shot? 1.181304
Any of these guys seem like an answer to you?
I'd throw some money at Ryan Anderson and Ilyasova, though I doubt either team lets them go.
Ilyasova has indicated he might head back to europe. I don't know if 'poison pill' contracts are still possible, personally I'd prefer Ilyasova over Anderson...I don't like them 3 point shooting power forwards :)
The FA class this year, PF or center, is pretty weak, and I'd still waive Brand to create room when/if an opportunity shows up.
Hell, Dwight howard circus probably runs all over again next season
I wonder how much the Sixers would wind up paying if they did use the amnesty on Brand. You'd have to think teams would put in bids for him. I mean, you get him for $6M for 1 year that's a nice piece to have, maybe even up to half of his current contract that's a niece piece.
He'd actually probably wind up going to Indy. They have a bunch of cap space and I believe David West was on a one-year deal.
West was on a 2year deal if i remember correctly.
Anyway, i do believe Brand will probably get amnestied this offseason. If not, they will keep him and most of the others, and we will suffer through another mediocre year.
I still want to see how the season/post season plays out, but I wouldn't crucify them if they don't amnesty Brand. It theoretically could open a door or two, but that's an expensive pill to swallow for a marginal amount of wiggle room. It's only one season until he expires.
The unforgivable thing would be to re-sign Hawes and compound the mistake of the Sam trade so it keeps hurting the franchise for another 4 years. Lou probably falls in this category.
Indy needs a point guard upgrade, so does Portland
Would you consider handing jrue off to the blazers if it netted the sixers a pick from 4-7?
I really don't know enough about the top of this draft to answer that.
Derek probably knows better, but from what I've seen, there's quite a few very good big guys in this draft...it was just hollinger muttering about what the Blazers would do with a top 7 pick, too high to pick a point guard...
I like Anderson better than Ilyasova, but nether of them is the answer.
For some reason i am beginning to think the Sixers will acquire someone via trade using the cap space they will open up by amnestying Brand.
Josh Smith, Nene and Millsap look like guys they might go after.
That's why I advocate the amnesty, for flexibility, I don't know the deadlines on the amnesty, maybe it's late and the sixers can wait, maybe it's early. I assume it's before free agency starts, so guys who are waived can find new jobs and that's why I'm in favor of it because it does create cap room one year earlier.
Of the names you listed, I wouldn't want NeNe, Denver giving up on him after a couple months is frightening...Josh Smith would probably require too much return talent (I mean, sure I'd trade them Turner for and the 'salary slot' but little else) and Milsap Utah might be asking a little much for too.
And, if one believes in such things, I believe waiving Brand shows a sign to borderline fans that you are committed to winning...heck, based on that spike eskin/libertyballer thing - they might be reading this blog right now.
DONT RE-SIGN HAWES
DONT RE-SIGN LOU
Find a real GM
Agree that Utah is the obvious choice for a trade given their glut of frontcourt talent. The problem is that they are more likely to want to trade Jefferson or Milsap which in some ways would represent a bit of a lateral move. Although at least both of those guys are reasonably young (they are both 27) and both are FA after next year.
You don't like Brandon Bass? I think he's a sure bet to opt out. Has some great experience from playing with Howard and Garnett too. I like Humphries' toughness inside, but the whole soap opera drama scares me. Asik is an interesting name. Two other guys I like from the rare occasion I see them play - Kevin Seraphin from WAS and Mahinmi from Dallas. I'm sure advanced stats will say I'm an idiot but that's what my eyeballs think.
No, not really. He's another big who pretty much exclusively shoots long twos. Not my cup of tea, even if he's decent at making that shot.
I really like what I see whenever I get a chance to catch the Bulls. Asik seems like he challenges everything he can inside, very willing defender, rebounder, and strong. Basically, the opposite of what you get from Spence, immediate upgrade.
Some dude from New York asked this question in the espn 'heat' chat - it made me laugh.
)Will the addition of Ronnie Turiaf be enough for Miami to hold up well enough against the likes of Garnett, Noah, Hibbert, and the entire front line for Philadelphia?
Is there another NBA team in town?
And that's a question they chose to answer?
Monday practice video: Doug Collins on not looking at Tuesday's Heat game as a possible playoff preview, too much emphasis being placed on THE moment and the Sixers trying to work their way back up from seventh in the Eastern Conference:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Phn6WRyW9mc
Sounds like Thad has a cold. Hope he's alright by tomorrow night.
maybe, but honestly, Thad always sounds like he has a cold to me
Wow, Jamaal Wilkes made it into the HOF ahead of Bernard King and Mo Cheeks. If Wilkes made it in, I think it bodes well for Cheeks in the future. Bernard remains the only eligible single-season PPG leader not to be inducted into the HOF.
Story (with Collins, Young, Iguodala videos): Beating the Heat would benefit the Sixers in multiple ways:
http://www.phillyburbs.com/sports/sixers/beating-heat-could-help-philly-in-several-ways/article_d93873a5-85f6-59ce-a28b-fcfaacc17f21.html
not sure if anyone is still checking this thread, but I'ma put this out there just the same.
Shedding Mo Speights was a huge mistake. He was balling before he left Philly and now he is balling in Memphis. WTF??!
not a mistake. If shooting like you have a license, window dressing on defense and propelling your stats with increased minutes is balling, then yes he is.
2 things;
Either he would have never worked here in Philly simply because we gave him every opportunity to and it just did NOT WORK AT ALL.
OR
Sp8 is a one dimensional big man that will peak as a conditionally motivated bench player. Ok but certainly nothing to cry over.
I lean on the latter as you may guess.