Bob Ford's column today is mainly about Elton Brand's newfound position at the end of the bench for the bulk of the second half, and how this must look to the team's owner. Personally, I don't care how much each player is making. In a perfect world, you wouldn't dole out minutes based on salary. Not if your goals are winning and/or developing a roster. If your only goal is saving your job, then yes, coach by dollars. That's not the point of this post, however. I want to talk about the theory behind the moves Jordan is making.
Ford's theory is that Jordan is benching Dalembert and Brand because they are the culprits on the defensive end. Personally, I think that's a laughable stance to take. The over-helping and slow rotations are a team-wide issue, and frankly whether or not Brand and Sammy are rotating properly has had very little to do with the team's horrible defense. It's the perimeter guys who are sucking down into the lane, then having a tough time scrambling out to the shooters. Brand was burned by Ryan Anderson in the first game from three, but other than that, teams haven't really stretched him out with fours. Rasheed Wallace did his three-point damage mostly against the Sixer reserves. If a team is playing a lineup with a guy like Sheed at the four, then maybe it does make sense to sit Elton down, but that hasn't been the case for the past couple of games. If you want my opinion, Elton's benching has been 100% about offense. Particularly, it's been about Jordan wanting two bigs who can shoot from the outside on the floor to make the PO more effective. Defense be damned.
Here are the fourth-quarter results from the past four games:
- 29-35. (Brand and Sam sat entire quarter)
- 22-24. (Brand played the 5 for a stretch of 4 minutes)
- 29-21. (Quarter started with a 13-14 deficit, then Sam came, played the remainder of the game, Sixers finished on a 16-7 run)
- 36-20 (Brand and Sam sat entire quarter).
I think it's pretty safe to say that Jordan has not achieved the desired result of benching his two starting bigs down the stretch. This does beg the question, however, of which combo has been the most effective, on both ends of the floor.
In comes the handy rotation chart. Below, you'll see every combo at the four and five the Sixers have trotted out there. Points scored, points allowed, minutes played and then points scored and allowed per 48 minutes, so you can get a bit of an expanded view of their performance.
As you can see, Sam and Brand have done a fine job on defense, but their offense has been lacking. Essentially, the team treads water with those two on the floor. Speights + Smith has been a defensive sieve, but slightly better than the starters on the offensive end. The clear winner at this point is the Speights/Brand combo. This has been the most productive offensive duo of any that has played more than 10 minutes. It's been the most productive defensive unit of any duo that has played more than 18 minutes. The differential is through the roof.
It's not hard to understand why. Speights needs a strong defender on the floor with him, and his ability to unclog the lane by draining jumpers out to 20 feet should give Brand room to work one-on-one in the post (although this hasn't been properly utilized).
If you put any weight at all in the numbers, this is the front court you'd be finishing games with. Brand also has good splits when he's on the floor with Jason Smith, probably for the same reasons. No matter how much money he makes, nor what your short/long term goals are as a first-year coach, Brand should absolutely be on the floor until the numbers don't back it up anymore. Right now, it seems like Brand is being scapegoated and it really needs to come to an end.
Dork, everyone knows that stats are useless...WATCH THE GAMES
:D
Wait, does that mean being 27th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency doesn't matter? Phew. I thought that was bad.
By the way, the Knicks are 21st in defensive efficiency. The. New. York. Knicks. Are more efficient defensively than we are. Awesome.
Come on - statistics don't tell you much - besides are you taking into account if they have the sniffles or if they are sad or happy?
Or if they are clutch :)
Now now - my argument isn't that clutch doesn't exist just that it has a small focus (plus folk at ESPN actually ran it on quarterbacks and found that only one QB named Manning, not Peyton, does 'extra special well' in 'clutch' situations compared to regular situatinos) In basketball clutch is even more hard to define cause refs call the super star foul more often - that's not a function of the player but of the ref
Now now - my argument isn't that clutch doesn't exist just that it has a small focus (plus folk at ESPN actually ran it on quarterbacks and found that only one QB named Manning, not Peyton, does 'extra special well' in 'clutch' situations compared to regular situatinos) In basketball clutch is even more hard to define cause refs call the super star foul more often - that's not a function of the player but of the ref
Ha ha! That's funny because just about everyone who comes to this site thinks stats are useless! Brilliant!
You know - if you were significant, I'd care what you had to say
Only the line-ups with 50+ minutes are a reasonable sample size. But some of those short, "crack-head" line-ups like Speights/Kapono make me wonder about Jordan's mental status. That particular line-up got 0 defensive rebounds in 7 possessions (but man could they score.)
I think Speights/Brand will happen, and is fine. Hopefully Brand will return to form as a defender to help obviate some of out concerns about Speights. Personally, I'd go with Speights/Sam and Smith/Brand, but I doubt the team goes in that direction unless they made Smith a token starter.
Another take on our big men:
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/The_Baseline/entry/view/42826/sixers_big_men_face_changing_times/#comments
I have to be honest with you, I never want to see a starting front court of Speights and Thad. I couldn't handle the atrocity of that group's defensive rebounding numbers.
Speights and Thad have been pretty damned dismal in their time together so far this season.
You beat me to the punch. Not enough to be wise... you have to wise and fast.
As much as I want to agree with someone named "Bethlehem Shoals", the whole notion of a future starting frontcourt of Speights at C and Thad at PF is ridiculous.
I think people are just seeing how weak Thad is at the 3 this year and how 'strong' he looked at the 4 last year and looking for a fix...much like Iguodala last year, but he's much younger and less experienced, Thad has to adjust from the 4 to the 3 and much like last year time has to be given I think
Agreed. If I wasn't willing to join the lynch mob calling for Dala's head last year, I won't do it for Thad this year, especially since Thad is younger, and played VERY WELL offensively last season at the 3-spot, especially in November.
Yeah. He's a good writer though, I enjoy his stuff.
If it means anything Thorpe thinks Speights should have been starting a while ago
He also loves him some HOlliday
Unfortunately it doesn't. Thorpe's a mess. Severely downplayed Speezy for most of the season in his rookie rankings and left him off a lengthy rookies to watch out list he made up near end of the season. Now he's some big Mo Speezy champion? Puh and leeze. Give it another five minutes and he'll display his ignorance for all to mock.
Coming into this year, I'd hoped that the team would eventually display a starting team of Lou, Dre, Thad, Brand & Speights, with a bench team of Smith, Kapono, Sam, Jrue & Carney as a variable. I'd figure that rotation has enough balance of offense and defense amongst the starters and bench to succeed, especially if the coach pulls a Phil Jackson and keeps 2 of either Dre, Speights or Thad on the floor at all times.